Tim Tebow prays for not Josh McDaniels' job security.
In October, I examined the data supporting the intuitive notion that
when an organization misses on a first round quarterback, the axe must fall on someone. From 1998 to 2010, there were 35 quarterbacks selected in the first round of the draft. I labeled 14 as clear busts, and in 10 of those situations, the head coach
and offensive coordinator were both gone within two years. The outcome wasn’t much rosier in the other four instances. In Chicago and Baltimore, a Coach of the Year award and Super Bowl title helped insulate
Dick Jauron and
Brian Billick, but their offensive coordinators were fired within two years of their teams drafting
Cade McNown and
Kyle Boller, respectively. In Denver, head coach
Josh McDaniels lasted only one year after drafting
Tim Tebow, although his
offensive coordinator has managed to rebound nicely. Only in expansion Houston was the axe delayed, although OC
Chris Palmer was fired after year 3 and HC
Dom Capers after year 4 following the
David Carr pick.
With 2012 in the books, I wanted to provide a quick update. While Cam Newton is not a bust and the jury is still out on Christian Ponder (although some are calling for OC Bill Musgrave to be fired), it’s worth noting the situation of the other two first round quarterbacks. In Tennessee, OC Chris Palmer was fired in part for yet again failing to develop a rookie quarterback, this time with Jake Locker as the prized pupil. And in Jacksonville, a year after HC Jack Del Rio and OC Dirk Koetter were shown the door for largely non-Gabbert-based reasons, the GM who selected Blaine Gabbert — Gene Smith — has been fired, along with the 2012 HC (Mike Mularkey).
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