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Week 13 (2020) Game Scripts: Ravens Run It Back To 2019

Chase Stuart — Sun, 13 Dec 2020 13:28:06 +0000

Previously:

The Baltimore Ravens had the league’s most dynamic offense in 2019, a run-powered super attack led by MVP Lamar Jackson. That same offense has struggled most of the season, and was down on its luck until Baltimore found the cure for the common offense: the Dallas Cowboys defense.

The Ravens became the 2nd team since 1999 to score 30+ points despite picking up just two (or fewer) first downs through the air. The first? The 2000 Bengals in the game where Corey Dillon set the single-game rushing record and Cincinnati rushed for 407 yards in a 31-21 upset over Denver.

In week 13, Baltimore rushed 37 times for 294 yards and 2 touchdowns, including 16 rushing first downs. The Ravens ran it on over 68% of their plays this season, just the fourth time that mark has been hit: the first was when Dalvin Cook had arguably the running back game of the season, when he picked up 226 yards and 4 touchdowns in a win over the Packers. The other two times came last week, by both teams in a game where one team didn’t have a quarterback. The Ravens had three players rush for over 70 yards, the second time that has happened… this season… against Dallas.

The full week 13 Game Scripts, below.

Team	H/R	Opp	Boxscore	PF	PA	Margin	Game Script	Pass	Run	P/R Ratio	Op_P	Op_R	Opp_P/R Ratio
CLE	@	TEN	Boxscore	41	35	6	22.6	34	36	48.6%	48	18	72.7%
NWE	@	LAC	Boxscore	45	0	45	15.2	23	43	34.8%	56	15	78.9%
GNB		PHI	Boxscore	30	16	14	6.9	36	25	59%	34	25	57.6%
BUF	@	SFO	Boxscore	34	24	10	6.3	41	27	60.3%	39	21	65%
BAL		DAL	Boxscore	34	17	17	6.1	17	37	31.5%	49	28	63.6%
NOR	@	ATL	Boxscore	21	16	5	5.9	39	36	52%	42	21	66.7%
IND	@	HOU	Boxscore	26	20	6	3.8	38	29	56.7%	43	19	69.4%
MIA		CIN	Boxscore	19	7	12	2.8	39	28	58.2%	34	17	66.7%
LAR	@	ARI	Boxscore	38	28	10	2.1	48	31	60.8%	41	21	66.1%
LVR	@	NYJ	Boxscore	31	28	3	0.9	49	25	66.2%	26	34	43.3%
NYG	@	SEA	Boxscore	17	12	5	0.7	24	31	43.6%	48	22	68.6%
KAN		DEN	Boxscore	22	16	6	0.1	41	22	65.1%	28	33	45.9%
MIN		JAX	Boxscore	27	24	3	-3.1	47	38	55.3%	44	25	63.8%
WAS	@	PIT	Boxscore	23	17	6	-4	49	21	70%	53	14	79.1%
DET	@	CHI	Boxscore	34	30	4	-6.7	44	22	66.7%	36	31	53.7%

In addition to the Ravens, the Giants, Jets, and Broncos all checked in as run-heavy. For the Giants, they were playing Colt McCoy at quarterback, and fortunately for them, Wayne Gallman (16 carries, 135 yards) and Alfred Morris (8/39/1) were able to carry the offense on a day when the defense was excellent.

For New York’s other team, it was a combination of a rare game where the Jets had a lead plus great performances from Ty Johnson (22/104/1) and Josh Adams (8/74); meanwhile, Sam Darnold had three turnovers on just 26 dropbacks. The Jets don’t have much of an identity, but they tend to run the ball as often as any bad team. The Jets rank 28th in pass attempts and 25th in rush attempts, an odd split for a winless team. The 2017 Browns ranked 9th in pass attempts and 28th in rushing attempts, the 2008 Lions ranked 18th in pass attempts and 31st in rush attempts, and the ’76 Bucs ranked 11th in pass attempts and 25th in rush attempts. Heck, the 1-15 ’96 Jets ranked 1st in pass attempts and 26th in rushing attempts.

For Denver, you might have thought that with Drew Lock back, the Broncos would be excited to put the ball in there air as much as possible. However, facing the Chiefs, the Broncos instead seemed more focused on trying to control the clock: Melvin Gordon played well, and Denver did limit Kansas City to 9 possessions, but the strategy was otherwise unsuccessful.

The most pass-happy team of the week was Pittsburgh, who finished with over 50 dropbacks despite having a positive Game Script. With James Conner out, the Steelers continue to rely a lot on Ben Roethlisberger. He has thrown 150 passes over the last 3 weeks, and they haven’t been all that successful: he is averaging under 6 yards per attempt and under 9 yards per completion during this stretch. Pittsburgh was the rare team to run for under 25 yards for the game despite having a lead through 3 quarters.

Finally, a note about the Buffalo Bills and quarterback Josh Allen. The Bills weren’t super pass-happy, although they were certainly Allen-happy: he finished with 43 pass plays (40 passes, 2 scrambles, 1 sack) in a game the Bills largely controlled. One reason for that is Allen has done an outstanding job completing passes this year: he completed 80% of his passes against the 49ers and has completed 69.9% of his passes in 2020. Earlier this week, a commenter asked where Allen’s huge increase in completion percentage (from 58.8% in 2019) ranked historically. Good question: it would crack the top 10 all-time among players who threw enough pass attempts to qualify for the passing crown in back to back years.

Quarterback	Year	Team	Prior Yr Cmp%	Current Yr Cmp%	Diff
Terry Bradshaw	1971	PIT	38.1%	54.4%	16.4%
Otto Graham	1953	CLE	49.7%	64.7%	15%
Jim Everett	1994	NOR	49.3%	64.1%	14.8%
Steve DeBerg	1979	SFO	45.4%	60%	14.7%
Jim Zorn	1978	SEA	41.4%	56%	14.5%
Sammy Baugh	1945	WAS	56.2%	70.3%	14.2%
J.P. Losman	2006	BUF	49.6%	62.5%	12.9%
John Brodie	1965	SFO	49.2%	61.9%	12.7%
Josh Allen	2020	BUF	58.8%	69.9%	11.1%
Joe Theismann	1979	WAS	47.9%	59%	11%
Scott Mitchell	1995	DET	48.4%	59.3%	11%
Vince Young	2007	TEN	51.5%	62.3%	10.8%
Virgil Carter	1971	CIN	51.4%	62.2%	10.7%
Brett Favre	2007	GNB	56%	66.5%	10.6%
Ken Anderson	1974	CIN	54.4%	64.9%	10.5%
Charlie Conerly	1959	NYG	47.8%	58.2%	10.4%
Joe Montana	1989	SFO	59.9%	70.2%	10.3%
Bob Griese	1970	MIA	48%	58%	9.9%
John Brodie	1968	SFO	48.1%	57.9%	9.8%
Norm Snead	1967	PHI	45.6%	55.3%	9.7%

Enjoy!

Weeks 11 and 12 (2020) Game Scripts: The Kendall Hinton Game

Chase Stuart — Fri, 04 Dec 2020 16:08:34 +0000

Previously:

Let’s begin with the week 11 Game Scripts. There were no notable blowouts or comebacks in week 11, but the Browns checked in as the most run-heavy team. Cleveland continues to be a run-heavy team and to an extreme degree when the Game Script is in their favor. In this win over the Eagles, Cleveland ran on over 60% of their plays, the third time they’ve done so this year; after 11 weeks, Minnesota had also three such games, and the rest of the NFL had only 9 games with a 60% run ratio.

The full week 11 Game Scripts, below.

Team	H/R	Opp	Boxscore	PF	PA	Margin	Game Script	Pass	Run	P/R Ratio	Op_P	Op_R	Opp_P/R Ratio
CAR		DET	Boxscore	20	0	20	9.5	36	34	51.4%	38	17	69.1%
LAC		NYJ	Boxscore	34	28	6	9.2	52	26	66.7%	31	24	56.4%
PIT	@	JAX	Boxscore	27	3	24	8.2	46	27	63%	39	17	69.6%
SEA		ARI	Boxscore	28	21	7	4.8	31	31	50%	45	18	71.4%
CLE		PHI	Boxscore	22	17	5	4.4	25	40	38.5%	40	25	61.5%
WAS		CIN	Boxscore	20	9	11	4.3	27	34	44.3%	48	18	72.7%
NOR		ATL	Boxscore	24	9	15	3.6	26	36	41.9%	45	14	76.3%
HOU		NWE	Boxscore	27	20	7	3.1	37	19	66.1%	42	24	63.6%
DEN		MIA	Boxscore	20	13	7	2.4	30	33	47.6%	44	17	72.1%
LAR	@	TAM	Boxscore	27	24	3	2.2	51	20	71.8%	49	18	73.1%
DAL	@	MIN	Boxscore	31	28	3	1.5	32	31	50.8%	32	29	52.5%
KAN	@	LVR	Boxscore	35	31	4	-1.7	46	27	63%	31	26	54.4%
TEN	@	BAL	Boxscore	30	24	6	-2.3	34	34	50%	30	33	47.6%
IND		GNB	Boxscore	34	31	3	-4.7	37	37	50%	39	18	68.4%

The two Los Angeles teams stood out as the most pass-happy of the week. Both the Chargers and Rams won and still finished with over 50 passes. Justin Herbert and the Chargers couldn’t have been too concerned playing the Jets, but Herbert still dropped back to pass 54 times (49 passes, 3 sacks, 2 scrambles). Due to injuries, journeyman Kalen Ballage (who was actually on the Jets earlier this year) was the team’s primary running back. Ballage and the other Chargers running backs carried 23 times for 46 yards and 3 first downs; Herbert, meanwhile, gained 358 yards and 20 first downs on his 54 plays. Not every coach would do it, but you can see why the Chargers stuck with the passing game in an easy win over the hapless Jets.

For the Rams, facing the potent Bucs offense kept the pressure on Los Angeles all game. The Rams never trailed in the second half, but the game was tied for long stretches; Los Angeles running backs had 16 carries for just 40 yards, while Goff had 51 passes for 376 yards and didn’t take a sack.

Week 12

The week 12 Game Scripts are below. The most extreme team of the week was the Broncos, but we will deal with them in a moment. Let’s look at the most pass-heavy team of week 12, which is a team that had something in common with the most pass-heavy team of week 11. Facing the Bucs, the Chiefs also kept their foot on the gas pedal all game long. Of course, having Patrick Mahomes plays a part in that, too. Kansas City led by double digits after the second and third quarters and won the game but still threw 50 passes. That had only happened 11 times prior to Sunday, and in four of them, Tom Brady was the one throwing those passes. In this game, he was on the opposing sideline, and Mahomes was having his typical outstanding day.

Team	H/R	Opp	Boxscore	PF	PA	Margin	Game Script	Pass	Run	P/R Ratio	Op_P	Op_R	Opp_P/R Ratio
GNB		CHI	Boxscore	41	25	16	14.7	29	39	42.6%	49	16	75.4%
ATL		LVR	Boxscore	43	6	37	14.4	40	32	55.6%	44	14	75.9%
TEN	@	IND	Boxscore	45	26	19	11.9	23	45	33.8%	46	21	68.7%
NOR	@	DEN	Boxscore	31	3	28	11.1	19	44	30.2%	10	33	23.3%
KAN	@	TAM	Boxscore	27	24	3	11.1	52	20	72.2%	42	13	76.4%
BUF		LAC	Boxscore	27	17	10	7.6	28	30	48.3%	55	24	69.6%
HOU	@	DET	Boxscore	41	25	16	7.4	27	23	54%	47	29	61.8%
MIA	@	NYJ	Boxscore	20	3	17	6.5	43	25	63.2%	30	23	56.6%
SEA	@	PHI	Boxscore	23	17	6	6.3	33	30	52.4%	52	14	78.8%
PIT		BAL	Boxscore	19	14	5	4.7	51	20	71.8%	21	28	42.9%
WAS	@	DAL	Boxscore	41	16	25	4.2	29	36	44.6%	40	18	69%
SFO	@	LAR	Boxscore	23	20	3	3.1	37	33	52.9%	33	28	54.1%
CLE	@	JAX	Boxscore	27	25	2	2.2	31	33	48.4%	35	25	58.3%
NYG	@	CIN	Boxscore	19	17	2	1.5	38	42	47.5%	31	15	67.4%
NWE		ARI	Boxscore	20	17	3	-1.5	21	30	41.2%	36	34	51.4%
MIN		CAR	Boxscore	28	27	1	-2.2	47	24	66.2%	36	28	56.3%

Let us dig in to the stats on the Broncos/Saints game. Denver ran on 77% of their plays, a result of backup quarterback Jeff Driskel testing positive for Covid-19, and all of the other quarterbacks (including starter Drew Lock) being deemed a close contact of Driskel and ruled ineligible to play. That left practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton to (1) be promoted to the active roster, (2) as a quarterback, and (3) as the starting quarterback. It went about as well as you would expect.

Over the last 10 seasons, this was just the 5th game where a team ran on at least 76% of their plays in a game. But when you look at only games where a team was trailing after three quarters, there was only one other game in the last 35 years where a team ran on over 76% of their plays. And that game involved some pretty unusual circumstances, too.

The 49ers going with fourth string quarterback Cody Pickett against a Bears defense that would win the NFC North and lead the NFL in points allowed. And the winds reached up to 50 miles per hour that day, leading Chicago to avoid the forward pass as well. Pickett threw just two passes in the entire first half! San Francisco ran on 78% of their plays in the loss, but even this game was close: the 49ers only trailed 7-6 entering the 4th quarter!

Denver trailed by 21 points entering the final frame in week 12. If we look at only games where a team trailed by more than 16 points after three quarters and still rushed on 76% of their plays, then this was just the third game in the Super Bowl era to meet those criteria! The last time it happened before the Hinton Broncos was in the final week of the 1974 season in a Bengals loss to the Steelers. That day, with starting QB Ken Anderson injured, the Bengals turned to backup Wayne Clark to lead the way against the Steel Curtain. Head coach Paul Brown wasn’t trying to win: he was trying to avoid embarrassment. The Bengals ran 41 times on 49 plays, and lost 27-3. Clark was an 8th round pick who finished his career with 0 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions.

The only other time in the Super Bowl era a team was blown out and still avoided the pass came in 1972, and you won’t be surprised to learn that Bobby Douglass was the driver. Douglass is arguably the most run-heavy quarterback in NFL history, and 1972 was his finest year as a runner. In the opening game of the season, facing the Falcons, Douglas went 4-for-12 for 73 yards (with TD passes of 38 and 6 yards), and an interception and a sack, while also rushing 9 times for 68 yards. Chicago ran on 43 out of 56 plays (77%) despite trailing 31-7 at halftime.

And that’s it: Hinton joins Clark and Douglass as a part of football history.