We’ve all moved on I’m sure, but I need to edit this. My spreadsheet had games of *over* 10 points as a Big Win (and under 10 as a BL). Jim’s breaking point is 9, meaning a Big Win is 10 and over as I note in my comments. So, the Jaguars are not at the top of the Big Win Index, as they now have a second Big Loss, to Rams in Week 6. Speaking of which, the Rams are at the top of the list:

1. LAR: 3 Big Wins, 0 Big Losses, 0.714
2. PHI: same, 0.714
3. SEA: 2 BW, 0 BL, 0.667
4. DAL: 3 BW, 1 BL, 0.667
5. JAX: 4 BW, 2 BL, 0.643

http://community.advancednflstats.com/2011/12/revisiting-big-wins-index-kind-of-wins.html

The reader’s name is Jim Glass, and the “metric” is called the “Big Win Index”. The idea is that most playoff winners in the NFL aren’t the teams that win close games (“clutch” teams) but instead teams that dominate and don’t get dominated. So, instead of looking at straight wins and losses, we look at a team’s “big” wins and “big” losses…those games that are either won or lost by 10 or more points. Any scores closer than that are treated as ties.

Anyway, I’ve always love the idea, and I have a spreadsheet where I keep track of the Big Win Index…home field advantage can be included, and of course, it can be adjusted for SOS.

Not trying to hijack this post or anything, but I thought this was closely related, so if readers find this interesting they may want to check out Glass’ article.

And also – while the rankings don’t match up exactly with Chase’s list, the #1 team in the BWI right now is indeed the Jaguars (BWI 0.714) and at the bottom is the Colts (BWI 0.214).

We’re barely at the half-way point and the Jags can still flame out, but so far this is good news.