• Bill Barnwell at Grantland with his excellent Super Bowl preview
• Chris Brown on the Ravens defense against the 49ers offense and the Ravens offense against the 49ers defense, both also at Grantland
• Aaron Schatz brings his Super Bowl Preview to Football Outsiders
• Sam Monson at Pro Football Focus also previewed the 49ers offense (and how to stop it) and the Ravens plan of attack
• Scott Kacsmar picked the Ravens in an upset and updated his impressive library of career playoff drive stats for quarterbacks
• Brian Burke is a big Ravens fan, but his model gives them only a 38% chance of success
• Last but not least, my old comrade Jason Lisk has been chronicling all things Super Bowl at the Big Lead

The Ravens can stop the zone read, but at what cost?

In Colin Kaepernick’s nine starts, the 49ers have averaged 159 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush and have rushed for 14 touchdowns; at the same time, they’ve averaged 8.1 ANY/A through the air. That makes them close to unstoppable, much like the Seahawks when Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch were dominating defenses over that same stretch.

The Packers chose to let Kaepernick beat them on the ground. He did.

Without any schematic advantage, the 49ers have enough talented beef up front to have a dominate running game. But add in what Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have been able to do with the Pistol formation and the zone read, and you have a running game that borders on unstoppable.

We saw that against the Packers, as Colin Kaepernick broke the single-game rushing record by a quarterback. The beauty of the zone read is that it gives the offense an extra blocker, an advantage the 49ers didn’t need. After the Packers were shredded by Kaepernick, the Falcons focused on containing the quarterback. Take a look at the photograph below, courtesy of Ben Muth of Football Outsiders.

Atlanta is a 3-4, and the ROLB — which would probably be Terrell Suggs — is the player the 49ers will read. Fullback Bruce Miller and TE Vernon Davis are aligned to the offense’s right, giving San Francisco seven blockers against seven defenders. But because both Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore are capable of running with the ball, the Falcons essentially have one fewer defender on the field. The play will be run to the left, so Staley and Iupati are able to double the defensive end. Against a player like Haloti Ngata, this advantage is critical, and even Ngata isn’t good enough to fight off a block from two players the caliber of the men occupying the left side of the 49ers line. This means Miller needs to block Ray Lewis or Dannell Ellerbe, but he’s capable of doing that.

Courtesy of Ben Muth of Football Outsiders

Unless Terrence Cody or Ma’ake Kemoeatu can have a huge day at nose tackle, it’s going to be hard for the Ravens to fight through the 49ers line. The outside linebacker will be read, and if you’re the Packers, you’ll crash the line (allowing Kaepernick to excel) and if you’re the Falcons, you’ll stay wide (and allow Gore and LaMichael James to rack up the yards).

The Pistol offense is not a trick formation, and the zone read isn’t a fad. Math is a constant everywhere in the universe, especially on the football field. There are two real ways to defend such an offense. The first is to simply field better players. Nevada had their occasional struggles against more talented teams, although during his senior year, Colin Kaepernick and Nevada embarrassed an outstanding Boise State defense in the second half of a game in Reno. But the Wolfpack did not have a line anywhere near as dominant as what Kaepernick’s playing behind in San Francisco. The Ravens defense is good, but at its best, the front seven is merely the equal of the 49ers offensive line + Walker + Miller. Eliminate one of those defenders with the read, and the Ravens are shorthanded.

That leaves just one option to defend San Francisco: put an extra man in the box. In the Super Bowl, you have to imagine the Ravens aren’t going to let Kaepernick run free for large gains the way the Packers did; as a result, expect Suggs or Paul Kruger, as applicable, to force the run inside. San Francisco will still be able to get a double team on the defensive end where the play is running, so the battle will come down to whether Lewis and Ellerbe can fight off their blocks to prevent a big gain. That’s unlikely to happen, as the 49ers have averaged 5.8 yards per carry when facing seven in the box. To truly stop the running game, they’ll need to have an eighth man in the box.

That means Michael Crabtree and Randy Moss will face a lot of single coverage. Even at 35, it’s hard not to give safety help to a cornerback covering Moss, and look for Kaepernick to test the Ravens deep early in the game. Crabtree is simply too good to leave in single coverage; he’s played like a top-five receiver over the last two months. Throw in Vernon Davis and the ability of Kaepernick to run when the pass play breaks down, and even forcing Kaepernick to beat you through the air doesn’t sound very good.

But if the options are (a) crash the edge rusher and try to tackle Kaepernick in the open field, (b) let Gore/James run behind double teams all day, and (c) try to force Kaepernick into some mistakes, I expect Baltimore to go with choice (c), even if it is only the least ugly option.

And it doesn’t have to be so black and white. The benefit of having veterans like Bernard Pollard and especially an instinctual player like Ed Reed is that you can play head games with the opposing quarterback. Reed can play 12 yards off the ball, convincing Kaepernick to go with a run play, and then time the snap so that he’s only four yards from the ball at the line of scrimmage. That’s what a crafty safety can do. Conversely, Reed can try to confuse Kaepernick by moving pre-snap, looking like an in-the-box player but retreating before the snap, allowing Baltimore to cover Moss deep and provide help on the players covering Davis and Crabtree. It’s not an easy task, but a chess match between Reed and Kaepernick might be the best advantage the Ravens defense has.

Third Down Woes?

You can’t be a sportswriter if you aren’t going to note that the key to winning the game is to win on third down at least once a month, so I have now fulfilled my quota. If there’s a weakness on offense for San Francisco, it’s their inexplicable troubles on third down. The 49ers converted just 68 of 194 third-down opportunities in 2012, a 35.1% success rate that placed them in the bottom quarter of the league.

But that’s actually misleading. The 49ers are so successful on early downs that they end up avoiding third down: on first and second down, the 49ers have picked up a first down 30% of the time, third in the league (barely) behind New England and Washington.

What’s interesting is that while the 49ers have been less successful on earlier downs with Kaepernick, they’ve been better on third downs, converting 37.5% of the time. In two playoff games, San Francisco has converted 34% of first/second downs for first downs, and have converted 10 of 19 third downs for first downs. I think we can put that worry to rest.

Can Flacco keep up?

The 49ers offense is going to have success: they’re going to be able to control the game on the ground and/or produce points through the air. The big question, then, is whether or not Joe Flacco can keep up in a 1970s-style shootout. Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce have had some good runs in the playoffs, but I don’t see how the Ravens can win the game by running the ball.

Flacco needs a lot of big plays to beat the 49ers.

Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman may be the two best inside linebackers in the league. Both excel in the running game and in coverage, which means Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson are in for a long day. San Francisco has a great front seven that often makes opponents one-dimensional, and I see no reason to think the Ravens will be any different. For the Ravens to win, it won’t be because of big games from Rice or Pitta, but from dominant performances from Smith and Anquan Boldin. I expect Flacco to hit a few big bombs, but I don’t think he can be consistent enough to keep up with what San Francisco will do on offense.

Special Teams

If there’s an area where the Ravens have an advantage, it’s in the kicking game. Justin Tucker has been arguably the best kicker in the league, excelling on both kickoffs and field goals, while David Akers has played the role of goat often this year. The 49ers placekicker has missed 13 field goals this year, the most by any kicker since 2003 (when Jacksonville’s Seth Marler also missed 13 kicks). On the other hand, perhaps this will incentivize an already aggressive Jim Harbaugh in fourth down situations, so don’t consider this a negative for the 49ers just yet. Both teams have good punters, so no real edge there. But don’t be surprised if John Harbaugh, a former special teams coach, has something special he’s been waiting all year (or longer) to unleash.

Prediction

It’s hard to pick against the 49ers. When I did my season-in-review articles, here’s how I finished my piece about San Francisco:

In the second half of the year, Colin Kaepernick had his moments, but the 49ers still lost to the Rams and Seahawks and nearly blew a 28-point lead against the Patriots. In the end, their playoff story will be the only story that counts, but their 2012 season was more disappointing than impressive for arguably the league’s most talented team.

After the season, six 49ers were selected as first-team All-Pros, and I have no reason to change my opinion that San Francisco has the most talented roster in the NFL. On top of that, they probably have the best coaching staff in the league. Again, you just sort of wonder why this team wasn’t more dominant this year, as they have the ceiling to be an all-time great team.

San Francisco 27, Baltimore 21

Will Lewis go out on top?

In my week 11 power rankings, when Baltimore was 8-2, I wrote: “According to Football Outsiders, Baltimore has the best special teams since 1991 through 10 weeks. Schatz tweeted that Baltimore’s the 16th best team based on just offense and defense.”

A few days later the Ravens defeated the Chargers in the famous 4th-and-29 game, which certainly didn’t change my outlook on Baltimore. Then the Ravens tanked down the stretch, seemingly fulfilling their reputation as an average team. And let’s not forget: had Ben Roethlisberger stayed healthy, it’s possible the Ravens don’t even make the playoffs. Without the 13-10 ugly win over Byron Leftwich and the Steelers, both Baltimore and Pittsburgh would have finished 9-7 with the Steelers holding the tiebreaker. To be fair, the Ravens did not compete in a meaningless week 17 game, but the point is that the Ravens were barely above-average team during the season that got a few breaks along the way.

Baltimore had a slightly easier than average strength of schedule, and roughly matched their opponents in yards, first downs, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and net yards per pass. Compare them to the juggernaut that is the 2012 Patriots — New England finished with the 4th most points in NFL history — and this game, on paper, should be a blowout.

The biggest flaw in that analysis is that everything I just wrote was equally true last week, when I picked the Broncos to steamroll the Ravens.

Home Field Advantage

With just 9 seconds remaining in the first half of a week 17 game in 2000, the Patriots trailed the Dolphins 17-14. Drew Bledsoe threw a 16-yard pass to Terry Glenn for the touchdown, putting New England up 21-17 at the half. Jay Fiedler and the Dolphins came back to win the game in the second half by the final score of 27-24.

That game, in week 17 of the 2000 season, was the last time the Patriots lost a home game after leading at halftime. Thanks to Scott Kacsmar for pointing that out to me. From 2001 to 2012, a home team has lost a halftime lead in 316 different games, but none of those teams were New England. All of the other 31 teams have lost at least five such games. That’s just ridiculous. Making the stat even more absurd: over that same time period, New England has had a home halftime lead in 71 games, the most in the league.

Gronkowski-less

The Rob Gronkowski injury is a big blow for the Patriots, even though it didn’t seem to slow them down at all against Houston. This isn’t going to be the lead story on ESPN anytime soon, but Ray Lewis is now a liability in pass coverage. Making matters worse, he’s been on the field for every snap this postseason, so don’t expect the Ravens to take him out against New England. Both Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning exploited the middle of the field against the Ravens, as Dannell Ellerbe — the other inside linebacker — is also poor in coverage. If the Patriots had Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez healthy, I think Belichick and Brady would have attacked the Ravens linebackers all game with those two.

Wiith Lardarius Webb on IR and Jimmy Smith dealing with groin/abdominal injuries most of the year, Cary Williams, Corey Graham, and Chykie Brown have become the top three cornerbacks in Baltimore. Of the three, Brown is the most likely one to be targeted by Brady, but truth be told, whomever is matched up against Wes Welker or Aaron Hernandez is going to be in for a long day. Ed Reed has played well this post-season, so don’t look for the Patriots to attack him.

In the AFC title game last year, Paul Kruger, Haloti Ngata, and Terrell Suggs had limited success getting to Brady. This will be the key matchup for the Ravens on Sunday: without Webb in coverage, pressure on Brady will be even more important this year. Tackles Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer are very good, but the middle of the Patriots line can be suspect: center Ryan Wendell is a strong run blocker but a mediocre pass blocker, while former center and now right guard Dan Connolly can be beat. Even left guard Logan Mankins isn’t the same player he was before his ACL injury. The middle of the New England line is where the Patriots are vulnerable on offense, and 3-4 defensive ends Ray McDonald and Calais Campbell each had two sacks in wins over the Patriots. When the Ravens won in September, Ellerbe and Ngata combined for three sacks. Paul Kruger has been the pass rushing star in Baltimore this year and Terrell Suggs is the household name, but players like Ngata, Arthur Jones, Pernell McPhee, Ellerbe and even Lewis could be factors in getting to Brady.

On the offensive side, the most important player on the field for the Ravens is probably wide receiver Torrey Smith, who torched New England just hours after his brother passed away in week three. How Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard and the rest of the Patriots secondary handle Smith will go a long way towards deciding the winner. The Ravens passing game is very inconsistent, but that may not be a bad thing for a team that’s a heavy underdog on Sunday. Still, I don’t like the Ravens’ odds in a shootout: Tom Brady is 64-2 at home when the Patriots score more than 21 points.

Riding with Ray

There is no way around it: all the evidence points to the Patriots. They’re home, they’re the better team, they have the better quarterback and the better coach. But that was pretty much the case last week (minus the coaching part), and the Ravens actually outplayed Denver for most of the game. In the light of the Manti Te’o scandal, the lesson might be to just ignore off the field stuff entirely and focus on the actual game. But emotion is a big part of football, and I think the Ravens have bought into this “win it for Ray” mentality. It would be silly to think that the Ravens “want it more” than the Patriots, but take a look at what Ray Rice said on Wednesday:

This is Ray Lewis’ last hooray. You are looking at their coaches, they are coming back next year. Our General, our Captain – this is it for him. If you want to call it riding that emotional high, emotions, everything, of course we are, because we are dealing with something that is going to be a last. Every time that we’ve seen someone in the playoffs … The Colts, coach Chuck Pagano, we love him, but he’s back to coach next year. Peyton Manning is coming back to play next year. Ray Lewis is not. That’s what he said. He made that decision final. I think we all just put our pride aside, and if we are going to ride it, we are going ride it. But, we are going to go out there and give it our best shot for our guy. He’s done it for us for 17 years and led our guys to one Super Bowl. We speak of it, and it stands right here.

I would roll my eyes at any columnist who picked the Ravens to beat the Patriots because of junk like this, so commence the eye-rolling my direction. But I think the Ravens are playing at a higher level than they have all season, and I believe they’re a veteran team that is capable of rising to the moment. They’ve had a full year to digest the agony of losing last year’s championship game, and I think Baltimore plays their best game of the year — and pulls off the upset — on Sunday.

Baltimore 23, New England 21