Let’s begin our preview by analyzing each team’s passing offense:

Sadly, this post is not sponsored by beats by Dre.

Picking between Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson feels like an exercise in hair-splitting. Over the last two seasons, these two have nearly identical passing numbers, ranking 4th and 5th in ANY/A. Kaepernick was slightly better last year, Wilson slightly better this year, and then Kaepernick has been better in the playoffs. By ANY/A standards, this is a complete wash.

What about the weapons? That’s one area where it at least appears like the 49ers have the edge. Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, and Vernon Davis are legitimate stars who combine to give Kaepernick three versatile weapons on every play. A healthy Percy Harvin changes things for Seattle, but with Harvin declared out for the game, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Zach Miller represent a clear downgrade from the 49ers bunch.

But remember, when we look at the passing statistics of Kaepernick and Wilson, those numbers already incorporate the quality of each quarterback’s targets. After all, a quarterback’s ANY/A or NY/A averages are not mere reflections of the passer, but of the passing offense as a whole. On the other hand, Kaepernick hasn’t had those three players together for most of his career. In fact, the trio has only been available in 7 of Kaepernick’s 28 career starts. In 10 starts, only Crabtree and Davis were on the team, and in another 10, Kaepernick had just Boldin and Davis. ^[1]There was also one start, against Indianapolis, where both Crabtree and Davis were out. The table below shows Kaepernick’s numbers as a starter depending on the availability of his three weapons:

Kaepernick’s numbers were outstanding in 2012, which is what the first line represents. Then he struggled for most of this season without Crabtree, represented by the middle line. But over the last 7 games, Kaepernick’s numbers nearly match the high level from 2012.

Subjectively, I prefer Wilson as a passer. I think he’s better at progressing through his reads and is more comfortable as a passer, while I think Kaepernick still struggles to look past his first read and is more eager to run. I also think Wilson is more accurate, although Kaepernick does have a stronger arm. And while Kaepernick’s 8.4 AY/A average with all his weapons together is great, that’s no better than Wilson was over all of 2013. Sure, Wilson has struggled of late, but I’m not going to let that sway me too much.

Edge: Even.

Let’s move on to the running games:

Looking at the production of each team’s running backs incorporates each team’s offensive line and other blockers, which makes the analysis simpler. Including the playoffs, Advanced NFL Stats has Marshawn Lynch 13th in Expected Points Added at +12.3 but only 27th in success rate (42.7%). Those numbers might sound bad to you, but they’re well ahead of Frank Gore, who has provided -25.5 Expected Points Added and also has a below-average success rate of 38.5%. ANS isn’t impressed with Kendall Hunter (-10.7 EPA on 89 carries and a 34.0% success rate) or Robert Turbin (-12.1 EPA on only 80 carries and a 36.8% success rate), either. I like Brian Burke’s approach and understand why his numbers are what they are, but I can also recognize that they’re an outlier opinion. While neither may have been particularly efficient according to ANS, Gore ranked 9th in rushing yards and 6th in rushing touchdowns, while Lynch was 6th in rushing yards and tied with Jamaal Charles for the league lead in rushing touchdowns.

Football Outsiders shares a different view in scale, at least. Lynch ranks 5th in DYAR (the counting stat) and 17th in DVOA (the average stat), while Gore is down at 20th in DYAR and 24th in DVOA. This being advanced analytics, of course, FO has a different definition of success rate than ANS, but still has Lynch (48%) in the lead (Gore is at 42%).

Football Outsiders has Russell Wilson as the more efficient runner, and that makes some sense, too. Wilson and Kaepernick have very similar rushing numbers, but Wilson has a slightly higher YPC average and has rushed for more first downs. On the other hand, ESPN’s QBR is much more fond of Kaepernick’s work on the ground, although the site graded Wilson as the better runner in 2012.

The San Francisco line is considered one of the best in the league, while the Seahawks have had offensive line issues for most of the season. But Seattle’s running attack has been a bit more productive: part of that might just be because Lynch is a better player, and part might be because the Seahawks tight ends, receivers, and fullbacks are better blockers (although both teams fare well in this regard).

Edge: Small edge, Seattle.

The last time the 49ers came to Seattle.

The 49ers pass defense is very good, and a healthy Aldon Smith makes the pass rush that much better. But put it this way: Seattle’s pass defense held the 49ers offense to -0.9 ANY/A and 3.45 NY/A in Seattle and 4.19 ANY/A and 5.00 NY/A in San Francisco, while the 49ers allowed Seattle’s passing attack to average 4.04 ANY/A and 5.13 NY/A in Seattle and 5.67 ANY/A and 6.59 NY/A in San Francisco. There’s good, there’s San Francisco good, and then there’s Seattle good. Any edge the 49ers have at wide receiver is given up (and then some) once we compare the two teams in the secondary. Having a healthy Crabtree and Smith will improve on the 49ers’ year end numbers, but they still were a tier behind Seattle in net ANY/A and NY/A differential.

But before moving on, let’s take a moment and reflect on how dominant Seattle’s pass defense has been at home over the last two years. Only once in 17 tries (Mike Glennon) did a quarterback not finish the game with a lower ANY/A average in Seattle than he did in games started at all other venues that year (shown in the “ROY Avg” column):

If you take an average of the averages, the 17 quarterbacks averaged 2.99 ANY/A in Seattle and 6.12 ANY/A in all other games that season. In other words, going to Seattle takes about half of a quarterback’s value away. That, in a word, is insane. The only non-Glennon quarterback to produce an ANY/A of over 5.9 (the league average the last two years) was Drew Brees last weekend, but that was based on some garbage time production.

Edge: Seattle

Finally, we must examine each team’s run defense. This is particularly important for San Francisco fans, since the only path to defeating the Seahawks seems to be on the ground (or just suffocating the offense the way the Cardinals did). Despite having an average lead of 5.6 points this year, Seattle faced the 10th most rush attempts in the league. That’s a direct consequence of the #LegionOfBoom, as teams were simply afraid to throw on the Seahawks.

Seattle’s rush defense was not bad — it ranked 7th in yards allowed, 7th in yards per carry allowed, and 8th in DVOA. And those ratings are dragged down by the team’s woes in back-to-back weeks of the middle of the season, when St. Louis and Tampa Bay each rushed for 200 yards. But there was even a silver lining in those games: neither team rushed for a touchdown against the Seahawks, and on the season, Seattle allowed just four rushing touchdowns, the fewest in the NFL.

One thing to keep in mind is how insanely deep Seattle’s defensive line is. According to Football Outsiders, the team’s top seven defensive linemen have between 480 and 600 defensive snaps this season. Michael Bennett is the team’s best two-way defensive end, while Chris Clemons and Cliff Avril are the edge rushers.  Red Bryant is the hybrid, capable of lining up at end or tackle and an excellent two-gap player who can stuff the run.  Seattle will rotate Brandon Mebane (the team’s best DT) and Clinton McDonald and Tony McDaniel at tackle, with McDonald being more of a pass rushing specialist and McDaniel more of a run stufer. So against a team like San Francisco, that means we should expect to see a lot of McDaniel and Bryant to go along with Bennett and Mebane, with Avril and Clemons coming in on passing downs.

So what happened against St. Louis and Tampa Bay? According to Pro Football Focus, Stacy broke five tackles and averaged 2.7 yards after contact per carry.  In that game, PFF gave Clemons and McDonald poor run grades, but also gave negative marks to Brandon Browner, Earl Thomas, and K.J. Wright.  Against Tampa Bay, it was not just Bryant and Avril getting negative scores, but Thomas, Wright, and middle linebacker Bobby Wagner, too.  And in that game, it was Mike James breaking 6 tackles and picking up 3.2 yards per carry after contact.

Seattle devotes so many resources to stopping the pass that you have to expect the team to allow a few good runs here and there. But for the most part, the run defense was very good this season, and I suspect those two bad games were an outlier. The defensive line is incredibly deep, the linebackers are very good, and in general, the secondary features good tacklers. What’s more, against a power team like the 49ers, Seattle can place its best four run defenders on the line and hold up well.

In the last 4 Seattle/San Francisco games, Frank Gore has rushed 33 times for 241 yards in the two wins, and 15 times for 44 yards in the two losses.  Both of those games in Seattle got out of hand quickly, but that’s a pretty significant gap in production. The question for San Francisco is whether they can win if the Seahawks contain Gore to say, 15 carries for 60 yards.

San Francisco’s run defense is in the same “very good but not great” territory. The 49ers rank 4th in yards allowed, 9th in yards per carry, and 14th in DVOA. The 49ers run defense struggled a bit early, but has not allowed a running back ^[2]Of course, Cam Newton did that last week. to rush for 50+ yards and average 4.00 YPC in 12 straight games, including the playoffs. With Navorro Bowman, Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, and yes, Glenn Dorsey, in the front seven, an opposing back must earn every yard he wants.

Edge: Slight edge, Seattle.

This should be a very even game, but most of the signs point to Seattle. The Seahawks will probably fare slightly better running the ball than the 49ers will, while it’s hard to imagine anyone beating Seattle through the air. Home field gives the Seahawks a big edge, too. Both teams are content to play conservative football, though, so expect a close game well into the fourth quarter. The path to a 49ers win seems to be either exceptional performances from the wide receivers or suffocating the Seahawks offense. But I think more likely than not, we see Seattle earning the trip to MetLife Stadium.

Prediction: Seattle 19, San Francisco 16

Coach of the Year is one of the most difficult awards to predict each year. The award often goes to the coach who most outperforms expectations rather than the coach who does the best coaching job, which is how you end up in situations where Dick Jauron and Jim Haslett were named the best coaches in 2001 and 2000, respectively.

There are no standards or guidelines to help voters determine the Coach of the Year, so every voter is left to his own devices. Today, I’m going to run down my rankings of the top 8 coaches of 2012.

8. John Fox, Denver Broncos

Having Peyton Manning makes coaching easy, but Fox still deserves credit for guiding the Broncos to an excellent season. Denver is going to finish the year on an 11-game winning streak and the Broncos are in the top five in points allowed, yards allowed, net yards per attempt allowed, rushing yards allowed, rushing touchdowns allowed, and rushing yards per carry allowed. Fox has helped turn Von Miller into one of the best two defensive players in the NFL and his hiring of Jack Del Rio to coach the defense has worked beautifully. And while Manning is having a phenomenal year, let’s not forget that it was only three months ago that people were questioning his arm strength and the Broncos were 2-3. Many coaches are doing wonderfully with less, but Fox deserves credit for helping lead Denver to the 2 seed in the AFC.

7. Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans

Gary Kubiak wishes COTY voting took place after the end of November.

So why isn’t Kubiak ranked higher? I’m not sure the Texans are as good as their record and they’ve had a relatively easy schedule. Kubiak’s done an excellent job, but he also hasn’t had to face as much adversity as some other coaches this year. Houston is now one of the most talent-laden rosters in the league, and that makes Kubiak’s success just slightly less impressive.

6. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers

The Packers are 11-4 — they’d have the same record as the Texans if not for the Golden Taint play — despite facing a more difficult schedule than Houston. As is seemingly an annual tradition, the Packers have placed a large number of starters on injured reserve, including right tackle Bryan Bulaga, linebackers Nick Perry, D.J. Smith, and Desmond Bishop, and Cedric Benson (along with two other running backs). Charles Woodson has only played in 7 games, James Starks and Alex Green have been banged up most of the year, and injuries have limited Greg Jennings to just 246 receiving yards this year.

Alex Green is the leading rusher with 464 yards, and he’s plodded to the tune of 3.4 yards per carry, narrowly trailing what Benson (3.5) and Starks (3.6) have produced. An anemic running game, a banged up offensive line, and injuries at receiver and tight end have resulted in Aaron Rodgers having a down season and having taken 46 sacks. Clay Matthews has missed four games and he still has 8.5 more sacks than anyone else on defense.

Yet after all that, the Packers are in line for the #2 seed in the NFC. McCarthy’s team is ranked 7th in both points and points allowed, and Green Bay has responded well in the face of adversity this season. After the painful loss to the Seahawks, would other coaches have been able to keep this team focused? After an emotional loss to the Chuckstrong Colts, you didn’t hear about grumbling in the locker room: instead, Green Bay won five straight games. Since a 38-10 shellacking against the Giants, where they looked lost, the Packers have won four in a row. If McCarthy isn’t a household name, that’s just because he’s the most underrated coach in the NFL. Despite facing numerous setbacks this season, he’s got the Packers right where everyone expected they would be.

Jeff Fisher cracks a joke with Eddie George before trying to kill him.

Despite having one of the three toughest schedules in the NFL, St. Louis has played .500 ball this season. According to the SRS the Rams are perfectly average at 0.0, a big jump over where they were in 2011 (-10.4), 2010 (-6.7), and 2009 (-17.4). This is one of the least talented teams in the league; if you don’t believe it based on their SRS scores of the past few years, just know that they’re an underdog almost every week. In fact, St. Louis has only been favored twice this season, losing both games to the Jets and Vikings. That means the Rams have won seven games as underdogs this season, which ties an NFL record going back to at least 1978. No coach is doing more with less than Fisher, and it would have surprised no one if the Rams finished 3-13 with this brutal schedule.

Instead, St. Louis, in the most competitive division in football, is undefeated in division play. The Rams are 3-0-1 in their last four road games. Fisher has this team on the right track, and they should be a playoff contender in 2013. They went toe-to-toe with the 49ers and battled them to a draw for 149 minutes, and then won in minute 150. Fisher traded down multiple times in the first round, and while he missed out on Robert Griffin III, defensive lineman Michael Brockers looks to be the next in a long line of excellent Fisher defensive lineman. Second round pick Janoris Jenkins was your quintessential Fisher character risk player, and he’s panned out well, while ex-Titan William Hayes has provided strong run support in a limited role. The 2012 Rams look like one of Fisher’s old scrappy teams and I’m not sure any coach could have gotten more than 7.5 wins out of this team. I’ve got my qualms with Fisher as an in-game coach — it seems like his weekly goal is to win 9-7 on a 61-yard field goal as the clock hits triple zeroes — but the man can build a football team.

4. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons

What does it say about Smith that he’s taken a projected 9-win team to a 13- or 14-win season and the best record in the NFL? Not very much, based on how little you hear his name mentioned. Sure, Atlanta isn’t as good as their record and they have faced a relatively easy schedule, but he’s got his team the #1 seed for the second time in three years. Short of a 16-0 season — and maybe not even that — Smith and the Falcons were destined to be victims of their January reputations, and Atlanta won’t earn respect until that changes.

But let’s not let past seasons cloud our review of the job Smith has done this year. He’s not without fault, but he’s done an excellent job transforming Atlanta from one of the NFL’s most run-heavy teams to its most pass-happy offense. That’s never an easy transition, but Smith has shown great flexibility in turning Atlanta into a team based around Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. At this point, Atlanta is simply a bad running team — Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers are both well south of four yards per carry — but that hasn’t stopped the Falcons from securing the best record in football.

The Falcons defense lacks talent, but they managed to intercept Peyton Manning three times in one quarter, shut down RG3, shut out Eli Manning, and pick off Drew Brees five times. Atlanta is undefeated at home and won’t play another true road game all year. Smith doesn’t carry the genius label with him, but he’s able to get the most out of his players and deliver a consistent product every week. That’s 90% of the coaching battle. I’ll also give Smith credit for not letting an embarrassing shutout playoff loss last year drag into 2012. He’s one of the game best coaches.

3. Bruce Arians, Indianapolis Colts

The Pro-Arians case is easy to make, and it’s why he will end up winning the award. The Colts were the worst team in football in 2011 and now are in the playoffs. Q.E.D. This was supposed to be a massive rebuilding year for Indianapolis, as the Colts have a ton of dead money on the books and almost no proven veterans on the team. Arians has done a masterful job of guiding the team after Chuck Pagano had to take a leave of absence to battle leukemia. He’s handled the situation better than could be expected, and his class and loyalty speak volumes about Arians the person. The #Chuckstrong message has been loud and profound, and the Colts have a magic about them evidenced by Andrew Luck’s seven game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime this year.

But while the Colts’ 10-5 record is impressive, that can’t simply be dispositive. For starters, consider that the Vegas line for the Colts was 5.5 wins, so right now they’re 4.5 wins ahead of the game, just like the Denver Broncos will be in a few days. The Falcons are currently 4 wins ahead of their projections, and I’d argue that it’s harder to move from 9 wins to 13 than from 5.5 to 10. But more importantly, there are two reasons why the Colts are much better than last year: Andrew Luck and Regular Luck.

If you think Bruce Arians deserves Coach of the Year, it’s likely due to the huge turnaround the Colts are having. Well, does anyone think Indianapolis is more than a five-win team if Dan Orlovsky or Curtis Painter are still the quarterbacks? Of course not. Indianapolis ranks 22nd in rushing yards and 23yrd in yards per carry; they’re 23rd in net yards per attempt allowed, 30th in rushing yards allowed, and 32nd in rushing yards per carry allowed. This is not a good team in any sense of the word. Football Outsiders ranks Indianapolis as the 32nd best defense in the league. The ground game is based around three running backs with a 3.94 yards per carry average and 5 touchdowns on 324 carries. Take Luck away from this team and the Colts are challenging for the #1 pick again.

Of course, Luck alone isn’t enough; the Colts also needed plain old lower case ‘l’ luck to get to 10 wins. Indianapolis has been outscored by 42 points this year, befitting a 6.4-win team. That’s despite the fact that they’ve played, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL. According to the SRS, the Colts are the 26th best team in the league. The Colts are an incredible 9-1 in one-score games this year; to the extent that isn’t due to luck, it’s due to Luck.

A vote for Arians is essentially a vote for Dick Jauron 2001, and we know how that looks eleven years later.

2. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Ask anyone to name the best single-season head coaching performance of the last 15 years, and the most common answer you’ll get is Bill Belichick, 2001. But Jauron, not Belichick, won Coach of the Year that season, telling you exactly how important the award really is.

Truth be told, you could put Belichick number one on your ballot just about every year and be justified. There isn’t a better head coach out there. If you don’t hear “Belichick 2001” it’s probably because you heard “Belichick 2007” or “Belichick 2008.” The 2012 Patriots are 32 points away from becoming the second highest scoring offense of all time. You probably didn’t know that because it isn’t new that New England is again scoring at historic levels.

Consider how incredible Rob Gronkowski is. He’s a game-changing, perhaps league-changing phenomenon of a player, a tight end who is equal parts Jonathan Ogden and Cris Carter. He proved to be an unstoppable force last year. Well, without Gronkowski the last five games, the Patriots have averaged 34.2 points per game. The defense may be light on talent — and you can point the finger at Bill for that — but the Pats rank 17th in points allowed and 2nd in turnovers forced. His bend-but-don’t break style mixed in with a dash of opportunism has worked enough to complement the magnificent offense. The Patriots have the largest points differential in the league. In a new twist, they lead the league in rushing first downs. But they only rank 2nd in the SRS, behind…

1. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks

Trust me, you're going to love trolling Harbaugh.

In 2009, the Seahawks had an SRS of -9.3; in Carroll’s first season, 2010, the Seahawks had a near identical -9.4 SRS score. Carroll inherited a mess, but by 2011 the team was league average. Now the team is 12.6 points above average.

In a league where defensive backs are more restricted than ever and shorter, quick slot wide receivers seem to be taking over, Carroll built his secondary around a 6’4 undrafted cornerback and a 6’3 fifth round corner, giving him the two largest, most physical cornerbacks in the NFL. Carroll, himself a former defensive backs coach, has built the best secondary in the league in Seattle, based around Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, and Brandon Browner. Many questioned whether that would work, but no one can deny the results now.

If Carroll’s approach to acquiring cornerbacks was unconventional, what would you call his quarterback situation? Entering the season, 30 of the 32 teams had a starting quarterback that was either a former first round pick or was playing under a contract that had at least $20 million in guaranteed money. That’s unbelievable. One of the exceptions was Cincinnati, who, with Andy Dalton, an early second-round pick who had played very well as a rookie in 2011, was in fine shape at quarterback. That left just Seattle as a team trying to solve the quarterback puzzle.

Pete Carroll had Matt Flynn, Russell Wilson, and Tarvaris Jackson stage a true quarterback competition in training camp, an idea many thought preposterous. He pronounced short, third-round quarterback Russell Wilson the winner, making Seattle the first team in 50 years to have its main quarterback be five inches shorter than his main cornerback. No matter: Wilson has been lights out this season, making Carroll look like a genius. Wilson is two touchdowns away from breaking Peyton Manning’s rookie record for passing touchdowns in a season.

Carroll, considered by many to just be a college coach, has been extremely successful with one of the youngest teams in the NFL. He has built a dominant defense, a punishing ground game, and an efficient passing attack in Seattle. The Seahawks were supposed to only win 7 games this year, but in year three of the Carroll era, they’re now perhaps the best team in football. This team is quintessentially Carroll: quirky, young, and dominant. I haven’t seen a better coaching job this season.