Britt smoked the Eagles secondary.

Spoiler alert: Kenny Britt did not become the next great wide receiver, at least in 2013 (apparently, I still can’t quit him). Britt is an easy player to fall in love with, if you ignored the warning signs. He was just 20 years old when he played in his first NFL game in 2009. In 2010, he led all players in yards per route run according to Pro Football Focus, but his raw numbers underhwlemed because the Titans were a run-heavy team and Britt missed 30% of the season with a hamstring injury. In 2011, he matched his elite YPRR production, but a torn ACL/MCL tear ended his season after 94 pass routes.

He struggled in 2012, but I was willing to write that off due to recovering from the ugly knee injury, additional hamstring and ankle injuries, and a first-year starter in Jake Locker. That set up 2013 as a season where I thought Britt had great breakout potential. I interviewed Thomas Gower, of Total Titans and Football Outsiders, and asked him his thoughts. Gower was more pessimistic than I was about Britt, and for good reason.

As it turned out, Britt never seemed quite right mentally (in more ways than one); he struggled with drops and was eventually dropped behind Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright on the depth chart. He finished the year with 11 catches for only 96 yards and no touchdowns. In late December, Britt said he would definitely be a #1 wide receiver somewhere in 2014, which means I’m susceptible to falling into the Britt trap again.

What can we learn: This is a tricky one. The obvious takeaway is not to overlook effort, mental, and off-the-field issues. Britt had the character label affixed to him no matter what definition you used. Of course, writing off all players with character issues isn’t the answer, but in retrospect, the telltale sign was the team’s decision to spend top-35 picks on Wright and Hunter in back-to-back years.

Will Gus Bradley help fix the Jaguars defense?, July 16, 2013

In 2013, the Jaguars were the only team to go the defensive coordinator route when finding a new head coach, selecting former Seahawks coordinator Gus Bradley. As we now know, the Seattle defense didn’t miss Bradley too much, but the main question I had was what Bradley would do to the Jaguars defense.

What I discovered was that, in general, defensive coordinators were more successful at immediate turnarounds of their new team’s defense than offensive coordinator hires were at turning around their new team’s offense. On average, the teams that hired defensive coordinators as new head coaches jumped from 23rd in points allowed, 19.5 in yards allowed, and 24.5 in Expected Points Allowed to 13.5, 18, and 22, respectively. While regression to the mean aids these turnarounds, it’s worth noting that such regression didn’t take place for the OC hires.

As it turned out, Jacksonville finished the season 28th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, and 26th in NY/A allowed. Advanced NFL Stats had the Jaguars 30th in EPA, while Football Outsiders had the 28th. Those numbers are all similar enough to the team’s 2012 output, so Bradley didn’t do much to improve the team’s defense. Of course, it’s far from clear how much blame he really deserves, either.

What can we learn: The Jaguars entered the 2013 offseason with massive talent deficiencies on both sides of the ball, but the lack of star players was particularly glaring on defense. Bradley couldn’t turn water into wine, although I’ll note that Rob Ryan arguably did just that in New Orleans; of course, Ryan has had more than his share of years with talent-deficient defenses where his teams languished at the bottom of the defensive rankings. After taking OT Luke Joeckel in the first round, the Jaguars hit the secondary at the top of the second and third rounds, drafting S Jonathan Cyprien and CB Dwayne Gratz. Neither player was able to fix the team’s secondary issue, although Cyprien led all Jaguars defenders in snaps. But without a rookie superstar and no major free agent impact players (Alan Ball, who had the most starters of any Jaguar cornerback, may have been the best of the haul), this defense never had much of a chance of success in 2013.

As for the broader point, one example doesn’t mean much, so in general, we might expect defensive coordinators to have some initial success, at least on defense. For 2014, that might mean good things for Mike Pettine in Cleveland, Mike Zimmer in Minnesota, and, while not technically meeting the definition, Lovie Smith in Tampa Bay.

Counting on a healthy Wayne hurt the Colts.

After slashing the team in the post-Peyton Manning era, the Colts entered 2012 with low expectations and a lot of rookies. As it turned out, 26% of the Approximate Value produced by the Colts in 2012 came from rookies, an abnormally high rate and only the 2nd team since 1990 to hit such a high threshold (the 2012 Browns were the other). The one outlier on the offense, however, was the second most important piece: wide receiver Reggie Wayne.

As we now know, Wayne wound up tearing his ACL in an October victory against the Broncos. Fortunately for Indianapolis and Andrew Luck, Wayne’s absence allowed T.Y. Hilton to develop into a number one wide receiver. But Luck’s efficiency numbers didn’t rise as one would have hoped: while he significantly cut his interception rate, Luck actually averaged fewer NY/A in 2013 than he did in 2012, although part of that was due to the offense’s more conservative nature (his completion percentage rose from 54.1% to 60.2%)

What can we learn: The Colts should have been better prepared for a Wayne injury: it’s never surprising when a 35-year-old receiver gets hurt. The Darrius Heyward-Bey acquisition was a bust, and it was a rough year for Ryan Grigson. The Colts one-dimensional offense centered around Hilton was slowed down in the loss to the Patriots, although losing Dwayne Allen for the year in September hurt, too. The window is wide-open for Indianapolis due to the age of the offense, but the Colts need to provide Luck with more weapons: expecting Wayne, who turns 36 in November, to bounce back to his former level would be unwise.

Examining Games with More than 15 Carries, August 12, 2013

To measure running back workload, I tracked the number of carries a running back recorded after his 15th carry of the game. In 2012, Arian Foster ranked #1 in this metric with 117 carries over 15 carries. Did this mean Foster was more likely to get injured in 2013? As I discovered, the answer was no: workhorse backs weren’t more likely to get hurt the following year. Foster then proceeded to ruin my article by getting hurt; he finished 2013 with just 542 rushing yards over eight games.

What What can we learn: Foster may have finally succumbed to years of heavy workloads, and one could make the same argument about 2013 Ray Rice. The problem is the data doesn’t suggest that players with high workloads are more likely to miss games. If Alfred Morris and Marshawn Lynch are injured next year, we’ll say that high workloads lead to injuries. If they stay healthy, the narrative will simply be that they’re good at avoiding injuries. Up until 2013, so was Foster. As always, seeing the writing on the wall due to overuse is much clearer with the benefit of hindsight.

Britt smoked the Eagles secondary.

Before analyzing his NFL career, I think it’s important to remember that Britt is young for his class year: he played in his first NFL game before he was old enough to legally drink. Despite the young age, Britt didn’t disappoint, producing 701 receiving yards as a rookie in ’09. He even produced a signature moment, catching the game-winning touchdown pass from Vince Young in what was one of the greatest comeback drives of all time (no, really — I swear).

Britt’s 2010 season looks like modest improvement on the surface, but his 775 yards and 9 touchdowns don’t tell the full story. According to Pro Football Focus, Britt only ran passing routes on 253 snaps that season, but averaged a whopping 3.1 yards per route run, easily the highest rate in the league. The obvious follow-up question is why didn’t he run more routes? Well, the 2010 Titans were a run-heavy team centered around Chris Johnson; Tennessee finished 30th with just 474 pass attempts. Britt also missed nearly five full games with a hamstring injury, and Tennessee tended to place Nate Washington on the field in their 1-WR sets. Those seem like reasonable explanations for overlooking why a 22-year-old would play a limited number of snaps. The impressive part is his insane production.

That set 2011 up as a very interesting year: could Britt maintain that pace on more snaps? Was he about to emerge as the next elite wide receiver? On Britt’s first 94 pass routes, he gained 289 yards, producing yet another superb 3.1 YPRR average. Unfortunately, his 94th route was his last: Britt missed the rest of the season after tearing his ACL and MCL following a hit by Broncos safety Rahim Moore. ^[1]I guess Britt should have just ran a go route. Too soon, Denver fans?

Okay, so would 2012 be the breakout season? Not by a longshot. Britt struggled last year, producing a line of just 45/589/4 in 14 games and 11 starts. But in addition to dealing with the inconsistent Jake Locker, Britt was never fully healthy. He had hamstring problems in training camp, an ankle injury early in the year, and his knee never seemed right, either (tearing two ligaments in your knee tends to have an impact on normal humans).

So what should we expect from Britt in 2013? The optimist would say that now two full years removed from surgery, Britt could be finally ready to emerge as a star receiver. The pessimist would focus on Britt’s inability to stay on the field and the laundry list of off-the-field issues (he’s had nine incidents involving the police since entering the NFL).

I spoke with Thomas Gower of Total Titans and Football Outsiders, and asked him his thoughts.

Q: How much do you blame the ACL/MCL injury for Britt’s dropoff last season?

TG: There’s no doubt in my mind the injury and rust associated with it had a lot to do with Britt’s down 2012 campaign. Physically, he just didn’t move like we’d seen a healthy Kenny Britt move. Not the same speed, not the same explosion, just not the same player. Even when he had his big game late in the season against Indianapolis, he wasn’t the old Kenny Britt. I believe he said he got better throughout the season (because of the offseason surgeries, including one on the non-ACL knee, he missed all of training camp even) and ended the year at about 80%. The injury-related layoff also just destroyed his sense of timing. He visibly battled the ball all year long, and he’s said this offseason he had trouble adjusting to the speed of the ball coming out of the quarterback’s hands. It wasn’t just Locker’s occasional tendency to fastball short throws, either, as he struggled catching passes from Hasselbeck as well.

Q: Do you think that sets up 2013 as a bounceback season for Britt?

TG: As to what to expect from Britt this year, it’s hard to say. All accounts from OTAs are that he’s if not absolutely 100% healthy, he’s pretty close to it. He has the physical talent to be as good as about any wide receiver in the game. The big question aside from health has been how mentally focused he is away from the field on being the best football player he can be. I don’t have a good feel for that, but he showed in 2010 that he can put up relatively good numbers even without ideal technique refinement. As long as he’s healthy, I expect him to play plenty, maybe 80% of snaps. I don’t expect him to be a great fantasy wide receiver, though. The Titans are shifting to the run game as the focus of the offense, naturally limiting his numbers, wide receiver depth is better, and frankly, I don’t trust him to play all 16 games.

Q: I agree with you that adding Chance Warmack and Shonn Greene should make Tennessee a more run-heavy team. But what do you make of the fact that the Titans have spent top-35 picks in consecutive years on wide receivers not named Britt or Nate Washington? That’s an odd use of resources for a team that wants to have only two wide receivers on the field.

TG: I think the Titans will look a lot like they did in the second half of 2009 and in 2010. Personnel-wise, they’ll run a lot of two tight ends, and with Delanie Walker instead of Jared Cook, they have three relatively good blockers and no relatively good receivers at the position.

The Justin Hunter pick was about a couple things. First, they didn’t have a pure speed receiver. Kendall Wright at Baylor seemed like he might be that guy, but indications from his rookie year and what they’ve said about him say that he’s not. Second, 2013 will almost certainly be Kenny Britt’s last season in Tennessee. Between his injuries and off-the-field issues, the Titans seem frustrated enough with him I can’t see a situation where they’re willing to pay him what he thinks he’s worth. Third, their only wideout under contract for 2014 who was a lock to be there (before taking Hunter) was Wright. Lavelle Hawkins was released post-draft, and there’s no way Nate Washington is going to be around at $4.8 million.

There’s a relatively good chance Washington gets cut this year. He’s not a great outside receiver, even as a #2, and he’s due to make $4.2 million. Yes, he’s been their most reliable receiver the past two seasons, but he’s not so good they can’t cut him. I think the Titans would be fine, relatively speaking, rolling with Britt, Wright, Hunter, Kevin Walter, and Damian Williams as their group.

Q: Thanks, Tom. Last question: I’m not much of a Locker fan. Do you think he turns it on this year?

TG: The optimistic point of view is Locker never got to a good level of trust in Chris Palmer’s option route-heavy offense, and hesitated too much. He’d wait for guys to break open, and that gave defenses more time to react. Cynics (like me) say he’s always been a “see it, throw it” passer who lacks anticipation, so that was nothing new. By giving him more predictable routes, he can read a defense and make a throw. It’s a form of anticipation, albeit a relatively robotic one that doesn’t react well to stress (see Dalton, Andy). Accuracy issues, you say? What accuracy issues?

Previous “Random Perspective On” Articles:
AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams