Baltimore 38, Denver 35

One of the best playoff games in NFL history, and an instant classic. This game could be analyzed for hours and there are countless talking points (Fox playing not to lose, Manning’s playoff failures, Ray Lewis’ retirement tour making at least one last stop, Tim Tebow anyone?) that will fill up the schedules of ESPN and talk radio for weeks. But let’s start with a big picture review of the game from the perspective of the team I expected to win the Super Bowl.

If you want to assign credit and blame to Denver, this is how I would rank the five Broncos units on Saturday, from best to worst.

1) Special teams. Sure, Matt Prater missed a long field goal, but Trindon Holliday’s two return touchdowns were a thing of beauty — especially for fans of excellent blocking. Holliday’s runs were more about textbook blocking by the return unit and poor coverage by the Ravens than Holliday himself, but in any event, the Broncos special teams had a great day. In fact, here is how Pro-Football-Reference broke down the game by unit in terms of Expected Points Added:

The Broncos added 6.1 points on special teams, although that is dragged down by Holliday’s poor punt return in overtime (-7 yard return preceding Denver’s final drive of the year). But in regulation, Holliday’s two scores were huge, and he became the first player to return both a punt and kickoff for touchdowns in a playoff game. Also worth noting: Justin Tucker’s game-winning field goal added 1.5 points of expected value to Baltimore, so the Ravens special teams units were at -7.6 points added before that kick (and because of how the system is designed, that means the Denver special teams were at +7.6 points added before the kick).

2) The Pass Offense. Peyton Manning deserves some criticism, but in general, Manning was one of the best players on the field for the Broncos. Now maybe that’s not enough, and when you’re Peyton Manning you need to be the best player on the field in every playoff game (even if such logic appears only to be applied to, well, Peyton Manning). He did have several bad plays — a sack/fumble and the ugly overtime interception — but I’m not going to hold the pick-six against him. That pass was right on target, pass interference easily could have been called, and the ball would have hit Eric Decker right in the hands if his arm wasn’t being restrained by a Baltimore defender. In any event, the ball hit Decker in the chest and was tipped into the air, so Manning doesn’t get blame from me on that one.

That play alone was worth 7 Expected Points. Certainly that deserves to go against the passing game of the Broncos, but if you absolve Manning of it, that means he (as a proxy for Denver’s passing offense) added over 13 expected points for the game.

Manning’s first two touchdowns passes, to Brandon Stokley and Decker, were absolutely gorgeous throws that few quarterbacks in history could ever consistently make. The Broncos gained 30 first downs on the day, and remember, they were cut short two possessions thanks to Holliday. Manning did not have a great game — he averaged only 5.9 NY/A — but some of the credit has to go to the Ravens’ defense, too. They had an outstanding game. And with the game in the balance, Manning took Denver 88 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

3) Denver Rush Defense. The Broncos run defense wasn’t great — Ray Rice ran for 131 yards — but they did keep him under three yards per carry on first down runs. Baltimore only rushed for four first downs, so you have to give Denver credit for doing its job against the run. Still, by allowing 155 rushing yards, the praise has to be tempered.

[Big Gap]

4) Denver Rush Offense. Ronnie Hillman, Knowshon Moreno, and Jacob Hester combined for 40 rushes and gained only 126 yards. The longest gain of the day was just 11 yards. The Baltimore run defense was outstanding on Saturday, but it’s hard not to put a fair portion of the blame on the Broncos running game. Denver rushed 6 times on 3rd/4th and short, converting four times. Perhaps you put the blame on Fox for running 40 times, especially since Denver only had 46 pass attempts (including three sacks). But the inability to do anything on the ground was a problem for Denver. On 20 first-and-10 runs, Denver gained only 74 yards. The running game is never expected to carry the offense with Manning, but this was a game where the Broncos relied far too much on an ineffective part of the offense.

[Huge Gap]

Textbook coverage if you want to become the goat.

And about that pass. There’s no way to sugarcoat it – safety Rahim Moore made one of the worst plays in NFL playoff history on that touchdown. Up by 7, with 70 yards of field to defend, with the opponent out of timeouts and 40 seconds remaining, it is unbelievable that he could let Jones get behind him like that for the score. Much more could be written about this, but let me just say it was as bad as everyone said it was.

To recap: Peyton Manning played a good but not great game, which was better than just about every other Bronco on Saturday. Rahim Moore is the obvious culprit, but the Broncos defense — which ranked #1 in net yards per pass allowed in the regular season — looked like the Saints pass defense. When arguably the best pass defense in the league plays like the worst, that’s the story of the game. And, of course, much of the credit goes to Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, Jacoby Jones, and Joe Flacco for making that happen.

Also, because it’s awesome, take a look at the Broncos-Ravens Win Probability chart, courtesy of Brian Burke:

One final note on the game before moving to John Fox. I reviewed the game from the Denver perspective, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out two Ravens. Joe Flacco had a magnificent game — and perhaps the best of his career considering the competition. His agent had the best weekend of his life. And while Football Perspective focuses on rational analysis, it would be silly to ignore the intangible impact Ray Lewis has on the Ravens. He was not outstanding on the field, but I believe he makes his teammates better. I only watch him speak a few times a year, and I’m captivated every time he talks. I can only imagine how his teammates feel. Lewis may be a polarizing figure, but I don’t think the Ravens beat the Broncos with an inside linebacker who contributes what he did on the field and added nothing off it. Flowery analysis without foundation? Maybe. Give me a pass.

Coaching Conservatively, By John Fox

Of course, it’s hard not to ignore three conservative moments by John Fox. Yes, the Broncos pass defense had their worst game of the year, but that doesn’t mean Fox can’t shoulder some blame for his conservative decisions.

1) On 1st and 10 from their own 20, with 35 seconds left in the first half, the Broncos ran Hester for a yard and went into the locker room. Denver had all three of their timeouts, and Matt Prater — while he missed earlier and did not have a great season — has a history of long kicks at home. You need to go 40 yards for a field goal try, or 50 for a better than 50/50 chance at a field goal. The risk strongly outweighs the awards, and with three timeouts, Manning would have been able to get off five or six plays before settling for a field goal.

2) Facing 3rd and 7 at the DEN 47 right after the two minute warning, Denver ran Ronnie Hillman to the right side for one yard. Manning swallowed the sword for Mike McCoy there, saying he audibled to the run. Baltimore was out of timeouts, so running ensured that the clock would run and the Ravens would get the ball with about 70 seconds left. If Manning truly audibled from a pass to a run, he must have done it because he thought a pass was unlikely to work (and not because a run was going to be successful). I would have liked to have seen Manning take a chance to get the first down, and if no one was open, take a sack.

3) The second half situation was slightly less favorable than #1, but because of the circumstances, is the one everyone is talking about. Denver had one fewer timeout and four fewer seconds, but were again on their own 20 yard line. How difficult would it be to go 45 yards with 31 seconds and two timeouts? It’s tough to say — my gut tells me they have roughly a 15% chance of succeeding. Which is a whole lot higher than their chances of losing the game by being aggressive. Irony being what it is, Atlanta received the ball yesterday down by 2 with 25 seconds left at their own 28. They got to the Seattle 31 in 12 seconds using just one timeout. Suffice it to say, Fox probably dropped his team’s win probability from 58-60% to 50% with this decision. That’s nothing to compared to the disasters that were Bailey and Moore, but still, a disappointing performance.

If you haven’t had enough of the Broncos and Fox from that analysis, check out this great review by Its All Over Fatman, a great Broncos blog.

San Francisco 45, Green Bay 31

Kaepernick was outstanding against Green Bay.

To be fair, some of the numbers were inflated by just terrible coaching by the Packers. Their linebackers seem incredibly unprepared to defend a mobile quarterback, perhaps expecting or hoping for Joe Webb redux. But Kaepernick is far from a one game wonder. He’s now started 8 games in his career, or half of a season. Let’s say we double his numbers in those starts: that would give him the following season stat line.

Robert Griffin III was the only other quarterback to average 8.6 AY/A this year, but Griffin averaged fewer rushing yards per game and had a lower yards per carry average. It’s extremely early in Kaepernick’s career, but the ceiling is as high as it gets right now. As great as Tom Brady may be, the one quarterback I want to watch in six days is Kaepernick.

Atlanta 30, Seattle 28

Another exhilarating game, although it lacked the constant tension of Broncos-Ravens. Richard Sherman was great early, but Matt Ryan, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, and Roddy White took over in the first half. Pete Carroll received some criticism for “passing on two field goals” but such analysis was misguided. The Seahawks went for it on 4th and 1 from the 11, trailing 13-0 in the first half. It should be obvious to everyone that read this site that going for it is the correct call there. (That said, the decisions to run Robert Turbin up the middle on 3rd and 1 and then Michael Robinson on 4th and 1 legitimately open him up for criticism, but even still, hindsight is certainly driving much of the argument.)

Wilson's arms are too short to stiff-arm opponents.

Watch the replay. Right guard J.R. Sweezy was destroyed by Jonathan Babineaux, who gets to Wilson before the quarterback can do anything. That’s simply bad execution, and it happens, even at crucial moments in playoff games.

I was glad that Matt Ryan finally got the playoff monkey off his back, but the star of the game was Russell Wilson. He broke Sammy Baugh’s record for passing yards in a playoff game by a rookie. He was 24/36 for 385 yards with 2 touchdowns (and an interception on the final play of the game, a Hail Mary — if not for that, he would have joined Flacco on the 11 AY/A list), making him by far the youngest player to average 10+ yards per attempt on 35+ passes in a playoff game. He also rushed 7 times for 60 yards and a score.

And he nearly lead the most incredible comeback since Bills-Oilers (or maybe ever). The Seahawks trailed by 20 points entering the 4th quarter. Only one team has ever trailed by 20+ points after three quarters in a playoff game, and come back to tie or take the lead. That was the 1983 San Francisco 49ers, and Russell Wilson had a lot of Joe Montana in him on Sunday. The Seahawks have a franchise quarterback, and should feel very lucky about that.

While Wilson was the star, two other notes from the game. Mike Smith was nearly the goat. Atlanta lead by 13 points with 17 minutes left in the third quarter when Ryan threw a five-yard touchdown to Jason Snelling. At the time, I tweeted that Atlanta had to go for two there. I mostly got a “who cares, Atlanta is now up 27-7” reaction from people, but Wilson was already carving up the Falcons defense at that time. It seemed very possible to me that Seattle could score three more touchdowns, and more importantly, there was almost no downside to going for two. Being up by 19 with 17 minutes to go is kind of like being up by 5 with 5 minutes to go, and going for two is obvious in that situation. Smith simply was asleep at the wheel here, and it very nearly cost his team the season.

It didn’t, of course, because Matt Ryan had his signature playoff moment. Trailing by 1 with 25 seconds left at his own 28, Ryan hit Harry Douglas for 22 yards and then Tony Gonzalez for 19 yards to bring Atlanta to the 31. That was enough for Matt Bryant to come in and hit the game winner. Anyone who ever wants to tell you Ryan is a choker needs to just watch those two throws. Outstanding. Ryan has now lead 12 4th quarter comebacks and 16 4th quarter game-winning drives over the last three years.

Also, for you trivia fans out there: Julio Jones joined Keyshawn Johnson and Deion Sanders as the only players in the last 53 years with a reception and an interception in a playoff game.

New England 41, Houston 28

The only game that went according to script this weekend leaves me with little to add. Even without Rob Gronkowski, who re-injured his forearm early in the game and will now apparently miss for the rest of the postseason, the Patriots offense was unstoppable. Tom Brady was his typical excellent self: he went 25/40 for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns. Without Gronkowski, Brady connected with Aaron Hernandez and Shane Vereen 11 times for 168 yards, and hit Wes Welker 8 times for 131 yards. The Patriots gained 457 yards and 24 first downs despite shutting it down two minutes into the fourth quarter. There was an eight-drive stretch in the middle of the game where New England scored five touchdowns and a field goal. And until garbage time, the Patriots defense actually played pretty well. As for Houston, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson had good but not great games, while Matt Schaub ended with good-looking numbers but largely underwhelmed. J.J. Watt did not have a large impact, and recorded just one half-sack, one tackle, and three assists.

Coach of the Year is one of the most difficult awards to predict each year. The award often goes to the coach who most outperforms expectations rather than the coach who does the best coaching job, which is how you end up in situations where Dick Jauron and Jim Haslett were named the best coaches in 2001 and 2000, respectively.

There are no standards or guidelines to help voters determine the Coach of the Year, so every voter is left to his own devices. Today, I’m going to run down my rankings of the top 8 coaches of 2012.

8. John Fox, Denver Broncos

Having Peyton Manning makes coaching easy, but Fox still deserves credit for guiding the Broncos to an excellent season. Denver is going to finish the year on an 11-game winning streak and the Broncos are in the top five in points allowed, yards allowed, net yards per attempt allowed, rushing yards allowed, rushing touchdowns allowed, and rushing yards per carry allowed. Fox has helped turn Von Miller into one of the best two defensive players in the NFL and his hiring of Jack Del Rio to coach the defense has worked beautifully. And while Manning is having a phenomenal year, let’s not forget that it was only three months ago that people were questioning his arm strength and the Broncos were 2-3. Many coaches are doing wonderfully with less, but Fox deserves credit for helping lead Denver to the 2 seed in the AFC.

7. Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans

Gary Kubiak wishes COTY voting took place after the end of November.

So why isn’t Kubiak ranked higher? I’m not sure the Texans are as good as their record and they’ve had a relatively easy schedule. Kubiak’s done an excellent job, but he also hasn’t had to face as much adversity as some other coaches this year. Houston is now one of the most talent-laden rosters in the league, and that makes Kubiak’s success just slightly less impressive.

6. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers

The Packers are 11-4 — they’d have the same record as the Texans if not for the Golden Taint play — despite facing a more difficult schedule than Houston. As is seemingly an annual tradition, the Packers have placed a large number of starters on injured reserve, including right tackle Bryan Bulaga, linebackers Nick Perry, D.J. Smith, and Desmond Bishop, and Cedric Benson (along with two other running backs). Charles Woodson has only played in 7 games, James Starks and Alex Green have been banged up most of the year, and injuries have limited Greg Jennings to just 246 receiving yards this year.

Alex Green is the leading rusher with 464 yards, and he’s plodded to the tune of 3.4 yards per carry, narrowly trailing what Benson (3.5) and Starks (3.6) have produced. An anemic running game, a banged up offensive line, and injuries at receiver and tight end have resulted in Aaron Rodgers having a down season and having taken 46 sacks. Clay Matthews has missed four games and he still has 8.5 more sacks than anyone else on defense.

Yet after all that, the Packers are in line for the #2 seed in the NFC. McCarthy’s team is ranked 7th in both points and points allowed, and Green Bay has responded well in the face of adversity this season. After the painful loss to the Seahawks, would other coaches have been able to keep this team focused? After an emotional loss to the Chuckstrong Colts, you didn’t hear about grumbling in the locker room: instead, Green Bay won five straight games. Since a 38-10 shellacking against the Giants, where they looked lost, the Packers have won four in a row. If McCarthy isn’t a household name, that’s just because he’s the most underrated coach in the NFL. Despite facing numerous setbacks this season, he’s got the Packers right where everyone expected they would be.

Jeff Fisher cracks a joke with Eddie George before trying to kill him.

Despite having one of the three toughest schedules in the NFL, St. Louis has played .500 ball this season. According to the SRS the Rams are perfectly average at 0.0, a big jump over where they were in 2011 (-10.4), 2010 (-6.7), and 2009 (-17.4). This is one of the least talented teams in the league; if you don’t believe it based on their SRS scores of the past few years, just know that they’re an underdog almost every week. In fact, St. Louis has only been favored twice this season, losing both games to the Jets and Vikings. That means the Rams have won seven games as underdogs this season, which ties an NFL record going back to at least 1978. No coach is doing more with less than Fisher, and it would have surprised no one if the Rams finished 3-13 with this brutal schedule.

Instead, St. Louis, in the most competitive division in football, is undefeated in division play. The Rams are 3-0-1 in their last four road games. Fisher has this team on the right track, and they should be a playoff contender in 2013. They went toe-to-toe with the 49ers and battled them to a draw for 149 minutes, and then won in minute 150. Fisher traded down multiple times in the first round, and while he missed out on Robert Griffin III, defensive lineman Michael Brockers looks to be the next in a long line of excellent Fisher defensive lineman. Second round pick Janoris Jenkins was your quintessential Fisher character risk player, and he’s panned out well, while ex-Titan William Hayes has provided strong run support in a limited role. The 2012 Rams look like one of Fisher’s old scrappy teams and I’m not sure any coach could have gotten more than 7.5 wins out of this team. I’ve got my qualms with Fisher as an in-game coach — it seems like his weekly goal is to win 9-7 on a 61-yard field goal as the clock hits triple zeroes — but the man can build a football team.

4. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons

What does it say about Smith that he’s taken a projected 9-win team to a 13- or 14-win season and the best record in the NFL? Not very much, based on how little you hear his name mentioned. Sure, Atlanta isn’t as good as their record and they have faced a relatively easy schedule, but he’s got his team the #1 seed for the second time in three years. Short of a 16-0 season — and maybe not even that — Smith and the Falcons were destined to be victims of their January reputations, and Atlanta won’t earn respect until that changes.

But let’s not let past seasons cloud our review of the job Smith has done this year. He’s not without fault, but he’s done an excellent job transforming Atlanta from one of the NFL’s most run-heavy teams to its most pass-happy offense. That’s never an easy transition, but Smith has shown great flexibility in turning Atlanta into a team based around Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. At this point, Atlanta is simply a bad running team — Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers are both well south of four yards per carry — but that hasn’t stopped the Falcons from securing the best record in football.

The Falcons defense lacks talent, but they managed to intercept Peyton Manning three times in one quarter, shut down RG3, shut out Eli Manning, and pick off Drew Brees five times. Atlanta is undefeated at home and won’t play another true road game all year. Smith doesn’t carry the genius label with him, but he’s able to get the most out of his players and deliver a consistent product every week. That’s 90% of the coaching battle. I’ll also give Smith credit for not letting an embarrassing shutout playoff loss last year drag into 2012. He’s one of the game best coaches.

3. Bruce Arians, Indianapolis Colts

The Pro-Arians case is easy to make, and it’s why he will end up winning the award. The Colts were the worst team in football in 2011 and now are in the playoffs. Q.E.D. This was supposed to be a massive rebuilding year for Indianapolis, as the Colts have a ton of dead money on the books and almost no proven veterans on the team. Arians has done a masterful job of guiding the team after Chuck Pagano had to take a leave of absence to battle leukemia. He’s handled the situation better than could be expected, and his class and loyalty speak volumes about Arians the person. The #Chuckstrong message has been loud and profound, and the Colts have a magic about them evidenced by Andrew Luck’s seven game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime this year.

But while the Colts’ 10-5 record is impressive, that can’t simply be dispositive. For starters, consider that the Vegas line for the Colts was 5.5 wins, so right now they’re 4.5 wins ahead of the game, just like the Denver Broncos will be in a few days. The Falcons are currently 4 wins ahead of their projections, and I’d argue that it’s harder to move from 9 wins to 13 than from 5.5 to 10. But more importantly, there are two reasons why the Colts are much better than last year: Andrew Luck and Regular Luck.

If you think Bruce Arians deserves Coach of the Year, it’s likely due to the huge turnaround the Colts are having. Well, does anyone think Indianapolis is more than a five-win team if Dan Orlovsky or Curtis Painter are still the quarterbacks? Of course not. Indianapolis ranks 22nd in rushing yards and 23yrd in yards per carry; they’re 23rd in net yards per attempt allowed, 30th in rushing yards allowed, and 32nd in rushing yards per carry allowed. This is not a good team in any sense of the word. Football Outsiders ranks Indianapolis as the 32nd best defense in the league. The ground game is based around three running backs with a 3.94 yards per carry average and 5 touchdowns on 324 carries. Take Luck away from this team and the Colts are challenging for the #1 pick again.

Of course, Luck alone isn’t enough; the Colts also needed plain old lower case ‘l’ luck to get to 10 wins. Indianapolis has been outscored by 42 points this year, befitting a 6.4-win team. That’s despite the fact that they’ve played, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL. According to the SRS, the Colts are the 26th best team in the league. The Colts are an incredible 9-1 in one-score games this year; to the extent that isn’t due to luck, it’s due to Luck.

A vote for Arians is essentially a vote for Dick Jauron 2001, and we know how that looks eleven years later.

2. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Ask anyone to name the best single-season head coaching performance of the last 15 years, and the most common answer you’ll get is Bill Belichick, 2001. But Jauron, not Belichick, won Coach of the Year that season, telling you exactly how important the award really is.

Truth be told, you could put Belichick number one on your ballot just about every year and be justified. There isn’t a better head coach out there. If you don’t hear “Belichick 2001” it’s probably because you heard “Belichick 2007” or “Belichick 2008.” The 2012 Patriots are 32 points away from becoming the second highest scoring offense of all time. You probably didn’t know that because it isn’t new that New England is again scoring at historic levels.

Consider how incredible Rob Gronkowski is. He’s a game-changing, perhaps league-changing phenomenon of a player, a tight end who is equal parts Jonathan Ogden and Cris Carter. He proved to be an unstoppable force last year. Well, without Gronkowski the last five games, the Patriots have averaged 34.2 points per game. The defense may be light on talent — and you can point the finger at Bill for that — but the Pats rank 17th in points allowed and 2nd in turnovers forced. His bend-but-don’t break style mixed in with a dash of opportunism has worked enough to complement the magnificent offense. The Patriots have the largest points differential in the league. In a new twist, they lead the league in rushing first downs. But they only rank 2nd in the SRS, behind…

1. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks

Trust me, you're going to love trolling Harbaugh.

In 2009, the Seahawks had an SRS of -9.3; in Carroll’s first season, 2010, the Seahawks had a near identical -9.4 SRS score. Carroll inherited a mess, but by 2011 the team was league average. Now the team is 12.6 points above average.

In a league where defensive backs are more restricted than ever and shorter, quick slot wide receivers seem to be taking over, Carroll built his secondary around a 6’4 undrafted cornerback and a 6’3 fifth round corner, giving him the two largest, most physical cornerbacks in the NFL. Carroll, himself a former defensive backs coach, has built the best secondary in the league in Seattle, based around Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, and Brandon Browner. Many questioned whether that would work, but no one can deny the results now.

If Carroll’s approach to acquiring cornerbacks was unconventional, what would you call his quarterback situation? Entering the season, 30 of the 32 teams had a starting quarterback that was either a former first round pick or was playing under a contract that had at least $20 million in guaranteed money. That’s unbelievable. One of the exceptions was Cincinnati, who, with Andy Dalton, an early second-round pick who had played very well as a rookie in 2011, was in fine shape at quarterback. That left just Seattle as a team trying to solve the quarterback puzzle.

Pete Carroll had Matt Flynn, Russell Wilson, and Tarvaris Jackson stage a true quarterback competition in training camp, an idea many thought preposterous. He pronounced short, third-round quarterback Russell Wilson the winner, making Seattle the first team in 50 years to have its main quarterback be five inches shorter than his main cornerback. No matter: Wilson has been lights out this season, making Carroll look like a genius. Wilson is two touchdowns away from breaking Peyton Manning’s rookie record for passing touchdowns in a season.

Carroll, considered by many to just be a college coach, has been extremely successful with one of the youngest teams in the NFL. He has built a dominant defense, a punishing ground game, and an efficient passing attack in Seattle. The Seahawks were supposed to only win 7 games this year, but in year three of the Carroll era, they’re now perhaps the best team in football. This team is quintessentially Carroll: quirky, young, and dominant. I haven’t seen a better coaching job this season.