Week 15 College Football SRS Ratings

Chase Stuart — Sun, 09 Dec 2012 04:06:56 +0000

I didn’t publish my college football SRS ratings last week, but with the conclusion of yesterday’s Army-Navy game, the college football regular season is over. But before we turn our attention to the Bowls, here is a look at the final regular season SRS ratings.

Rk	Team	Conf	Conf Rk	G	MOV	SOS	SRS	REC
1	Oregon	P12	1	12	23.7	41.4	65.1	11-1
2	Alabama	SEC	1	13	22.8	41.3	64.1	12-1
3	Texas A&M	SEC	2	12	18.2	42.4	60.6	10-2
4	Kansas St	B12	1	12	16.5	43.2	59.7	11-1
5	Florida	SEC	3	12	13.1	44.4	57.5	11-1
6	Notre Dame	IND	--	12	14.7	42.8	57.5	12-0
7	Georgia	SEC	4	13	15.8	41.5	57.3	11-2
8	Oklahoma	B12	2	12	13.5	43.7	57.3	10-2
9	Stanford	P12	2	13	10	45.4	55.4	11-2
10	South Carolina	SEC	5	12	12.5	41.9	54.4	10-2
11	LSU	SEC	6	12	11.4	42.8	54.1	10-2
12	Oregon St	P12	3	12	9.6	44	53.6	9-3
13	Oklahoma St	B12	3	12	11.1	42.5	53.6	7-5
14	Southern Cal	P12	4	12	7.9	44.5	52.4	7-5
15	Florida St	ACC	1	13	19.3	32.6	52	11-2
16	Ohio State	B10	1	12	13.7	38.3	51.9	12-0
17	Baylor	B12	4	12	5.1	45.9	51	7-5
18	Texas	B12	5	12	6.1	44.5	50.6	8-4
19	Wisconsin	B10	2	13	9.9	40.7	50.6	8-5
20	Clemson	ACC	2	12	15.1	35.5	50.6	10-2
21	Arizona St	P12	5	12	9.2	41.3	50.5	7-5
22	UCLA	P12	6	13	7.9	42.6	50.5	9-4
23	Utah St	WAC	1	12	17.7	32.1	49.8	10-2
24	Michigan	B10	3	12	9	40.3	49.2	8-4
25	Fresno St	MWC	1	12	16	33.2	49.2	9-3
26	Brigham Young	IND	--	12	11.7	36.1	47.8	7-5
27	Arizona	P12	7	12	2.4	44.6	47	7-5
28	Nebraska	B10	4	13	7.3	39.5	46.9	10-3
29	Texas Tech	B12	6	12	4.4	42.2	46.6	7-5
30	TCU	B12	7	12	4.9	41.4	46.4	7-5
31	Penn State	B10	5	12	8.7	37.5	46.2	8-4
32	San José St	WAC	2	12	12.7	33.4	46.1	10-2
33	Vanderbilt	SEC	7	12	9.3	36.6	45.9	8-4
34	West Virginia	B12	8	12	2.3	43.5	45.8	7-5
35	Boise St	MWC	2	12	13.8	31.8	45.7	10-2
36	Northern Illinois	MAC	1	13	18.5	27	45.5	12-1
37	Northwestern	B10	6	12	7.6	37.4	45	9-3
38	Iowa St	B12	9	12	0.8	44.1	44.9	6-6
39	Mississippi	SEC	8	12	1.2	43.7	44.9	6-6
40	Mississippi St	SEC	9	12	6	38.3	44.3	8-4
41	Michigan St	B10	7	12	3	41.3	44.3	6-6
42	Washington	P12	8	12	0.5	43.6	44.1	7-5
43	Cincinnati	BgE	1	12	12.3	31.2	43.5	9-3
44	Missouri	SEC	10	12	-3.3	46.7	43.4	5-7
45	Louisiana Tech	WAC	3	12	11.8	31.3	43.1	9-3
46	Central Florida	CUS	1	13	11.4	31.5	42.9	9-4
47	San Diego St	MWC	3	12	9.8	32.6	42.4	9-3
48	North Carolina	ACC	3	12	11	31.3	42.4	8-4
49	Utah	P12	9	12	0	42	41.9	5-7
50	Syracuse	BgE	2	12	3.5	38	41.5	7-5
51	Tulsa	CUS	2	13	9.3	32	41.3	10-3
52	Arkansas St	Sun	1	12	9.7	31.4	41.1	9-3
53	Miami FL	ACC	4	12	1.6	39.3	40.9	7-5
54	Tennessee	SEC	11	12	-0.4	40.7	40.4	5-7
55	Pittsburgh	BgE	3	12	6.3	33.8	40.1	6-6
56	Louisville	BgE	4	12	7.1	32.9	40	10-2
57	Georgia Tech	ACC	5	13	2.9	36.9	39.8	6-7
58	Rutgers	BgE	5	12	8.1	31.6	39.7	9-3
59	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun	2	12	7.2	32.2	39.4	8-4
60	Louisiana-Lafayette	Sun	3	12	7.3	32	39.3	8-4
61	Kent St	MAC	2	13	10.1	29.2	39.3	11-2
62	Purdue	B10	8	12	0	38.4	38.3	6-6
63	Arkansas	SEC	12	12	-5.9	44.1	38.2	4-8
64	North Carolina St	ACC	6	12	3.2	34.5	37.7	7-5
65	California	P12	10	12	-9.1	46.4	37.3	3-9
66	Virginia Tech	ACC	7	12	0.8	36.4	37.2	6-6
67	Ball St	MAC	3	12	4.9	31.8	36.7	9-3
68	Iowa	B10	9	12	-4	40.5	36.5	4-8
69	Toledo	MAC	4	12	5.5	30.9	36.4	9-3
70	SMU	CUS	3	12	2	34.1	36	6-6
71	Minnesota	B10	10	12	-2.7	37.5	34.8	6-6
72	Nevada	MWC	4	12	3.3	31.2	34.4	7-5
73	Western Kentucky	Sun	4	12	2.7	31.3	34	7-5
74	Navy	IND	--	12	2.7	31.2	33.9	8-4
75	Auburn	SEC	13	12	-9.6	43.3	33.6	3-9
76	Duke	ACC	8	12	-3	36.2	33.3	6-6
77	Bowling Green	MAC	5	12	7.6	25.5	33.1	8-4
78	Indiana	B10	11	12	-4.3	37.3	33	4-8
79	Middle Tennessee St	Sun	5	12	0.5	31.8	32.2	8-4
80	Troy	Sun	6	12	-0.3	32.3	32	5-7
81	East Carolina	CUS	4	12	1.4	30.5	31.9	8-4
82	Washington St	P12	11	12	-11.8	43.5	31.7	3-9
83	Virginia	ACC	9	12	-6.1	37.3	31.2	4-8
84	Kansas	B12	10	12	-16.1	47.1	31.1	1-11
85	South Florida	BgE	6	12	-7	37.9	31	3-9
86	Kentucky	SEC	14	12	-12.4	43.3	31	2-10
87	Rice	CUS	5	12	0.2	30.6	30.7	6-6
88	Connecticut	BgE	7	12	-2.5	32.8	30.3	5-7
89	Ohio U.	MAC	6	12	5.2	24.7	29.9	8-4
90	Air Force	MWC	5	12	0.4	29.4	29.8	6-6
91	Maryland	ACC	10	12	-6.4	35.9	29.4	4-8
92	Temple	BgE	8	11	-6.7	35.5	28.8	4-7
93	Boston College	ACC	11	12	-9.4	38.2	28.8	2-10
94	Houston	CUS	6	12	-3.5	32	28.5	5-7
95	Marshall	CUS	7	12	-2.4	30.3	27.9	5-7
96	Texas St-San Marcos	WAC	4	12	-4	31.9	27.9	4-8
97	Wyoming	MWC	6	12	-6.8	34.4	27.6	4-8
98	Western Michigan	MAC	7	12	-1.8	29.2	27.4	4-8
99	Colorado St	MWC	7	12	-8.6	35.5	26.9	4-8
100	UTEP	CUS	8	12	-7.8	34.4	26.6	3-9
101	Florida Int'l	Sun	7	12	-6.8	33.3	26.5	3-9
102	Florida Atlantic	Sun	8	12	-8.7	35.1	26.4	3-9
103	North Texas	Sun	9	12	-6.3	32.7	26.4	4-8
104	New Mexico	MWC	8	13	-4.8	30.5	25.6	4-9
105	Wake Forest	ACC	12	12	-11.5	37.1	25.6	5-7
106	Central Michigan	MAC	8	12	-3.5	28.6	25.1	6-6
107	Illinois	B10	12	12	-14.7	39.3	24.6	2-10
108	Buffalo	MAC	9	12	-7	31.1	24.1	4-8
109	Memphis	CUS	9	12	-6	29.9	23.9	4-8
110	Texas-San Antonio	WAC	5	12	2.6	21	23.5	8-4
111	Alabama-Birmingham	CUS	10	12	-8.6	32	23.4	3-9
112	UNLV	MWC	9	13	-10.6	33.8	23.2	2-11
113	Miami OH	MAC	10	12	-9.8	32.3	22.5	4-8
114	Colorado	P12	12	12	-22.9	44.6	21.8	1-11
115	Hawai`i	MWC	10	12	-12.3	33.9	21.6	3-9
116	Army	IND	--	12	-11.6	33.1	21.5	2-10
117	South Alabama	Sun	10	13	-10.8	30.5	19.6	2-11
118	Akron	MAC	11	12	-10	29.4	19.4	1-11
119	Eastern Michigan	MAC	12	12	-14.6	34	19.4	2-10
120	Tulane	CUS	11	12	-15.5	33.8	18.3	2-10
121	Southern Miss	CUS	12	12	-17.8	34.2	16.4	0-12
122	Idaho	WAC	6	12	-21.6	36.7	15.1	1-11
123	New Mexico St	WAC	7	12	-18.5	32.5	13.9	1-11
124	Massachusetts	MAC	13	12	-22.3	32.1	9.9	1-11

I’ve also updated the NCAA Games page, which displays every game in major college football this season.

The table below lists the Bowl matchups along with some SRS data squeezed in: the last four columns show the SRS rating of the favorite and the underdog, along with the difference between the two ratings (i.e., a projected point spread) and the average of the two ratings (essentially a ranking of how good the game is).

Date	Favorite	Underdog	Location	Sponsor/FKA	Bowl	F_SRS	U_SRS	Spread	Avg
Dec-15	Arizona	Nevada	Albuquerque NM	Gildan	New Mexico	47	34.4	12.6	40.7
Dec-15	Utah St	Toledo	Boise ID	(fka Humanitarian)	Famous Idaho Potato	49.8	36.4	13.4	43.1
Dec-20	Brigham Young	San Diego St	San Diego CA	S.D. County Credit Union	Poinsettia	47.8	42.4	5.4	45.1
Dec-21	Central Florida	Ball St	St Petersburg FL	Beef 'O' Brady's	St. Petersburg	42.9	36.7	6.2	39.8
Dec-22	Boise St	Washington	Las Vegas NV	MAACO	Las Vegas	45.7	44.1	1.6	44.9
Dec-22	Louisiana-Lafayette	East Carolina	New Orleans LA	R+L Carriers	New Orleans	39.3	31.9	7.5	35.6
Dec-24	Fresno St	SMU	Honolulu HI	Sheraton	Hawaii	49.2	36	13.2	42.6
Dec-26	Western Kentucky	Central Michigan	Detroit MI	(fka Motor City)	Little Caesars Pizza	34	25.1	8.9	29.5
Dec-27	San José St	Bowling Green	Washington DC	Northrop Grumman	Military Bowl	46.1	33.1	13	39.6
Dec-27	Cincinnati	Duke	Charlotte NC	(fka Meineke Car Care)	Belk	43.5	33.3	10.2	38.4
Dec-27	Louisiana-Monroe	Ohio U.	Shreveport LA	AdvoCare V100	Independence	39.4	29.9	9.5	34.6
Dec-27	Baylor	UCLA	San Diego CA	Bridgepoint Education	Holiday	51	50.5	0.5	50.7
Dec-28	Texas Tech	Minnesota	Houston TX	Meineke Car Care	Texas	46.6	34.8	11.8	40.7
Dec-28	Rutgers	Virginia Tech	Orlando FL	(fka Champs Sports)	Russell Athletic	39.7	37.2	2.5	38.5
Dec-29	Arizona St	Navy	San Francisco CA	(fka Emerald)	Kraft Fight Hunger	50.5	33.9	16.6	42.2
Dec-29	Rice	Air Force	Fort Worth TX	Bell Helicopter	Armed Forces	30.7	29.8	1	30.3
Dec-29	West Virginia	Syracuse	Bronx NY	New Era	Pinstripe	45.8	41.5	4.2	43.6
Dec-29	TCU	Michigan St	Tempe AZ	(fka Insight)	Buffalo Wild Wings	46.4	44.3	2.1	45.3
Dec-29	Oregon St	Texas	San Antonio TX	Valero	Alamo	53.6	50.6	3	52.1
Dec-31	LSU	Clemson	Atlanta GA	(fka Peach)	Chick-fil-A	54.1	50.6	3.5	52.4
Dec-31	Southern Cal	Georgia Tech	El Paso TX	Hyundai	Sun	52.4	39.8	12.6	46.1
Dec-31	Iowa St	Tulsa	Memphis TN	AutoZone	Liberty	44.9	41.3	3.7	43.1
Dec-31	Vanderbilt	North Carolina St	Nashville TN	Franklin American Mortgage	Music City	45.9	37.7	8.2	41.8
Jan-01	Florida St	Northern Illinois	Miami FL	Discover	Orange	52	45.5	6.5	48.7
Jan-01	Georgia	Nebraska	Orlando FL	(fka Citrus)	Capital One	57.3	46.9	10.4	52.1
Jan-01	Northwestern	Mississippi St	Jacksonville FL	TaxSlayer.com	Gator	45	44.3	0.7	44.7
Jan-01	Oklahoma St	Purdue	Dallas TX	(at old Cotton Bowl)	Heart of Dallas	53.6	38.3	15.3	45.9
Jan-01	South Carolina	Michigan	Tampa FL		Outback	54.4	49.2	5.2	51.8
Jan-01	Stanford	Wisconsin	Pasadena CA	Vizio	Rose Bowl	55.4	50.6	4.8	53
Jan-02	Florida	Louisville	New Orleans LA	Allstate	Sugar	57.5	40	17.5	48.8
Jan-03	Oregon	Kansas St	Glendale AZ	Tostitos	Fiesta	65.1	59.7	5.4	62.4
Jan-04	Texas A&M	Oklahoma	Arlington TX	AT&T	Cotton	60.6	57.3	3.3	58.9
Jan-05	Mississippi	Pittsburgh	Birmingham AL	(fka PapaJohns.com)	BBVA Compass	44.9	40.1	4.8	42.5
Jan-06	Arkansas St	Kent St	Mobile AL	(fka GMAC)	GoDaddy.com	41.1	39.3	1.8	40.2
Jan-07	Alabama	Notre Dame	Miami FL	Discover	BCS National Championship	64.1	57.5	6.6	60.8

The SRS actually puts the Fiesta Bowl as the best Bowl game this year; of course, Oregon-Kansas State was the expected national championship game just four weeks ago. Using the SRS data, let’s preview some of the games:

Best non-BCS game: Cotton Bowl (Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma)

This one’s easy — the Sooners and Aggies are both top-eight teams, making this the third best game of the Bowl season.

Runners-up: The Chick-fil-A Bowl features a ton of future NFL talent between LSU and Clemson. The battle of the Tigers gives Clemson a chance to redeem itself after losing to another SEC team, South Carolina, in their last game of the season. The Alamo Bowl may not feature sexy teams, but Oregon State and Texas faced two of the toughest schedules in college football and came through with a combined 17-7 record. Neither team had a signature win in 2012, but in San Antonio one of these teams will build momentum towards 2013.

Biggest mismatch: Sugar Bowl (Florida vs. Louisville)

Much was made about Northern Illinois making the BCS, but the Huskies are not a bad team. And more importantly, they look to be a much better team than Louisville, who will be in the Sugar Bowl by virtue of winning the Big East. But if you’re looking for a blowout in a BCS game, keep your eye on the Sugar Bowl, not the Orange Bowl.

Runners-up: Navy looks to be overmatched against Arizona State in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl; the Midshipmen simply aren’t very good, and rode an easy schedule with wins VMI, Air Force, Central Michigan, Indiana, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Texas State and Army to a Bowl game. The Heart of Dallas Bowl doesn’t look to be any more competitive. Oklahoma State isn’t as good as they were in 2011, but Mike Gundy’s squad is more than good enough to take care of Purdue. The Boilmakers don’t have the offense to keep up with a Cowboys team that ranks in the top five in both points and yards. Purdue fired head coach Danny Hope after the season; his assistants will coach the game, while incoming head coach Darrell Hazell will coach Kent State in the prestigious GoDaddy.com Bowl before heading to West Lafayette.

Worst game: Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Western Kentucky-Central Michigan)

If you have to miss a Bowl game, this is it. WKU’s head coach Willie Taggart is headed to the University of South Florida while Central Michigan comes in as the worst team to make a Bowl. The Chippewas went 6-6 against a bad schedule — which included a win over an FCS school and SRS #124 Massachusetts — and won two other games by a combined four points.

Runners-up: The Armed Forces Bowl is low on talent with Rice and Air Force but it should at least be competitive. Meanwhile, the state Louisiana struck out this season. In Shreveport, in the Independence Bowl, Louisiana-Monroe (SRS #59) comes in as a heavy favorite over Ohio (SRS #89). We’ve already hit on how the Sugar Bowl looks to be a snoozefest; the other game in New Orleans, the R+L Carriers Bowl, doesn’t look much better. Louisiana-Lafayette, the third best team in the Sun Belt, against East Carolina, the fourth best team in Conference USA, doesn’t pack much punch. On the bright side, New Orleans does get the Super Bowl in a couple of months.

Closest game: Holiday Bowl (Baylor vs. UCLA)

Two games after Christmas, fans of offense get the best present of the year. Let’s not forget that with Robert Griffin III, Baylor beat Washington 67-56 in the Alamo Bowl; the 123 points were the most ever scored in regulation in a Bowl game. Baylor is one of just two teams this season to allow over 500 yards a game and the Bears led the nation in total yards, while UCLA is quite capable of getting into a shootout. The Bruins scored at least 36 points in 8 different games, but also allowed 35 points on four different occasions.

Runners-up: The Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl may not bring a lot of juice with it, but Northwestern and Mississippi State are two evenly-matched and well-coached teams. The Wildcats have won 10 games just twice in their history — in 1903 and 1995 — giving them a chance to make history in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs are looking for their second nine-win season in three years after hitting the 9-win mark just twice between 1977 and 2009.

Bowls – FootballPerspective.com

Week 15 College Football SRS Ratings