While teams throw more often now than they did throughout the history of the game, the frequency of interceptions per pass attempt has dipped at an even more severe rate than the quantity of pass attempts has risen. That’s why, despite more passing, there are fewer interceptions per game in the modern era than there has been at any other time since World War II. The graph below shows interceptions per team game in the NFL from 1945 through week 16 of the 2021 season:

Last year, I wrote about the seasons of Howard and Jackson in the context of Night Train Lane, the the putative gold standard for interception seasons.

When Lane intercepted 14 passes,  the NFL average interception rate was 7.4% and his Rams faced 360 pass attempts.  To try and make life fair across eras and teams (some defenses face lots of pass attempts, some face far fewer), let’s use a set of “baseline” numbers of a 3.5% league interception rate and a defense facing 500 passes.  For Lane, this means we multiply 14 by (3.5% divided by 7.4%) and multiply that result by (500 divided by 360); that means Lane would have 9.2 interceptions in a more neutral environment.  That is still a great number, but it’s not the best ever.

For a long time, the best mark belonged to Bill Dudley in 1946.  Playing for the  Steelers, Dudley had 10 interceptions when his team faced only 162 pass attempts! Of course, the average INT rate in 1946 was 9.1%, so that makes things just a bit less impressive.  For Dudley, if we multiply 10 by (3.5% / 9.1%) x (500 / 162), we get an adjusted result of 11.9 interceptions.  In other words, what Dudley did was slightly more impressive than Lane, even with 4 fewer interceptions, in large part because Dudley’s team faced less than half as many pass attempts!

…

But in 2020, another pair of AFC East players did the unthinkable.  In New England, … J.C. Jackson intercepted 9 passes….  That is a remarkable number, particularly since the Patriots faced only 494 pass attempts and the league average interception rate in 2020 was a minuscule 2.2%.  Jackson had an adjusted interception total of 14.54…

Jackson’s season should have been celebrated as one of the great defensive performances in modern history.  Unfortunately, it was not only largely ignored, it wasn’t even the best defensive performance by a cornerback in his own division.  Miami’s Xavien Howard had 10 interceptions last year!  The Dolphins faced more passes (545) than New England, but not enough to offset the extra pick; Howard had 14.65 adjusted interceptions — (10 x (3.5% / 2.2%) x (500 / 545) = 14.65) — making it the best season in NFL history by this methodology.

Now, what about Diggs?  Interceptions are slightly up this year, from 2.19% to 2.36% across the league.  And while Diggs may have “only” played 15 games so far, his Cowboys have faced almost exactly as many passes (539) as Howard last year and already more than the 2020 Patriots.    If we put Diggs’s numbers through the formula — 11 x (3.5% / 2.36%) x (500 / 539) — we get 15.14 adjusted interceptions, which would in fact be the greatest season of all time. ^[1]And Sam Darnold will be the key interview in the 30-for-30 series, as he threw 4 interceptions to Diggs, Howard, and Jackson over these three remarkable years.

There are two weeks left, of course, in the NFL’s inaugural 17-game season.  If Diggs finishes with 11 interceptions, he will fall behind both Howard and Jackson as the Cowboys defense will face another 70 or so passes. ^[2]In fact, as it stands now, if he does not get an interception on any of the next 23 passes Dallas sees, he will fall behind both Howard and Jackson.  If he gets to 12 is where it will get … Continue reading  But as it stands now, one could very easily argue that — after adjusting for era — Diggs is having the greatest INT season in defensive history.

Or, we could have just summed up this whole article in one sentence: One out of every 36 interceptions this season was made by Trevon Diggs. ^[3]I will grant you that it seems — odd — that the top 3 INT seasons in history would have all occurred in the last two years. Perhaps that is a flaw in the model, or perhaps that is just … Continue reading

Edit: Here is a fun final chart to look at, comparing the amount of interceptions thrown by the NFL leader in each season in orange against the most interceptions recorded by a defensive player that season.

What stands out to you?

As you know, the NFL is announcing its top 100 players in league history as part of the league’s 100-year anniversary. The nominating committee selected 12 outside linebackers ^[1]There are three players with labeling issues to discuss here: Chuck Bednarik, Clarke Hinkle, and Junior Seau (who isn’t on the above list). We will get to them at the end of this article. as finalists, and with the exception of the lone active player (Von Miller), every player is in the Hall of Fame. For the final team, 6 outside linebackers were chosen. The table below shows the finalists and those selected for the official team:

Let’s go in reverse chronological order for today’s post. Only one modern player made the cut, Von Miller, and he did not make the final list. You will recall that DeMarcus Ware, the best 3-4 outside linebacker of at least the last 30 years, was grouped with the defensive ends.  Miller is a reasonable candidate for the second-best such player, along with Hall of Famers like Derrick Thomas and Kevin Greene.  Miller has already been a 7x Pro Bowler, was an AP All-Pro in 2012, 2015, and 2016, and has been a six-time first-team All-Pro according to the Pro Football Writers Association.  Given the stacked field, Miller probably needed more time to seriously compete (and he’s having a down year by his standards in 2019), but his inclusion here speaks volumes about his dominance so far.

Thomas and Greene were surprising exclusions to fans of official sack totals.  Greene is 3rd on the official (i.e., since 1982) list behind only Bruce Smith and Reggie White;  Thomas, who tragically died at age 33, averaged 0.75 sacks per game for his career. The only players since ’82 to average that at least that many sacks and play in more games than Thomas are White and Ware.  Said differently, Thomas is tied with Bruce Smith for 4th most official sacks by a player through his age 32 season, behind only White, the underrated Jared Allen, and Ware.

So why were Greene and Thomas excluded?  In part because there were great sack artists before 1982, and the above stats overstate Greene and Thomas.  But the bigger reason is that both players were somewhat one-dimensional.  That’s okay in the modern NFL, but not for much of NFL history.   Kevin Greene was an absolutely phenomenal pass rusher, but he is always going to be overrated if you just look at the sack totals.  An outstanding player for multiple teams, but he rubbed some people the wrong way and was not particularly versatile.  Thomas was a worthy Hall of Famer and could have made this team had he sustained the dominance he showed early in his career.  Thomas was a force from the word go: he entered the league in ’89 and was truly outstanding each of his first four seasons. And while he made 5 more Pro Bowls from 1993 to ’97, he was never a consensus All-Pro, and this was not the high-water mark of outside linebacker play in pro football history.  Here were the consensus All-Pro outside linebackers: Renaldo Turnbull and Greg Lloyd, Green and Lloyd, Bryce Paup and Lloyd, Greene and Chad Brown, and John Mobley and Jessie Armstead.   Thomas didn’t win any Defensive Player of the Year awards, and I don’t think it’s a snub to say he’s not one of the 6 greatest outside linebackers of all time. Especially given that there were four no brainer choices.

Derrick Brooks ranks 4th among all defensive players in PFR’s Approximate Value system, second among linebackers, and first among outside linebackers: only White, Smith, and Ray Lewis have more AV. Brooks played on a lot of excellent defenses and made the Pro Bowl for 10 straight years, and received some first-team All-Pro recognition in 7 straight seasons (and received 2nd-team honors, or 1st-team All-conference honors, in two other years).  He didn’t stand out as absurdly fast or strong or aggressive or loud, but it was be a disservice to just say he was really good at everything he did.  He is in the discussion for best non-pass rushing outside linebacker ever: he was legendary against the pass and also led the NFL in tackles three times.  He was the best player for one of the best defenses ever, won a DPOY award, and scored five touchdowns in 2002 in 19 games.  Since 1993 (the first year of forced fumbles data on PFR), there have been only five players to amass more than 20 interceptions and more than 20 forced fumbles: four defensive backs and Brooks.

Lawrence Taylor of course, is regarded as the best 3-4 linebacker ever, the best rush linebacker ever, and would probably get a plurality of votes as the best linebacker ever.  He might get a plurality of votes as the best defensive player ever.  From ’81 to ’90, Taylor made 10 Pro Bowls, earned 8 AP First-Team All-Pro honors, won three AP DPOY award, two Super Bowls, and one AP MVP award.  He is the most decorated outside linebacker of all time.

The great Jack Ham starred in Pennsylvania for 15 years

Jack Ham had 32 interceptions and 25.5 sacks in his career; him and Brooks are in the very short discussion for best linebackers against the pass in league history.  There were no flaws in his game, either as an actual player (great against the run, good blitzer, a knock for making big plays, played very well in the playoffs) or when it comes to awards.  He has the counting stats (8 Pro Bowls, 6 AP All-Pro honors), he has the special honors (Pro Football Weekly 1975 Defensive Player of the Year, 1970s All-Decade Team, 1994 75th anniversary team), and also the team success (4 Super Bowls). Depending on the day, you might view Ham as the best player on the Steel Curtain defense or the 4th best, and it’s true that all four Hall of Famers helped each other. But Ham was also one of the legendary linebackers in Penn State history, starting on Nittany Lions teams that went 22-0 from ’68 to ’69, and then being named an All American in 1970.  Few men have had football careers as successful as Ham.  Brooks, Taylor, and Ham are the only  outside linebackers of the Super Bowl era to be first ballot Hall of Famers.

Yes, that means Bobby Bell was not a first-ballot choice.  Bell might be the most well-rounded outside linebackers ever, and is in the discussion for best 4-3 OLBs ever.  How versatile was Bell?  He was an all-state quarterback in high school, won the Outland Trophy as a DT for Minnesota in 1962, and was a Pro Bowl DE for the Chiefs in 1964, before building a Hall of Fame career at outside linebacker. Like Ham, the Chiefs Bell had no weakness: he was a good blitzer, great in pass coverage, and excellent against the run.  He was one of the greatest athletes in pro football history and channeled that athleticism into tons of big plays; in addition to the sacks and turnovers, he scored 9 touchdowns of his career, with none of those coming on offense.  There’s a good argument that Bell is the best defensive player in the history of the AFL, and in 1969, he won the PFW combined AFL/NFL DPOY award.  When Bryan Frye named his four best OLBs in NFL history, it was Taylor, Bell, Brooks, and Ham — and that’s a very reasonable list.

Chuck Bednarik is usually famous for two things: being the last true 60-minute, 2-way player, and his brutal hit on Frank Gifford.  Bednarik was an All-Pro center and an All-Pro outside linebacker.  Bednarik played in the Ivy League in college at Penn, and was more known for his play at center than at linebacker; that’s not exactly the resume for competing for a Heisman Trophy, but Concrete Charlie finished 7th in the voting in 1947.   He was the first pick in the 1949 NFL Draft, and won titles with the Eagles in both ’49 and ’60.  He could legitimately be on the list as a center instead of an outside linebacker.  From ’50 to ’54, he was an AP first-team All-Pro each year; in ’55, ’56, and ’57, he received first-team All-Pro honors from at least two other major organizations each year, too.  In ’60, he was an AP first-team All-Pro again.  He was the All-Decade center of the ’50s, was named the best center of the first 50 years of pro football, and made the 75th anniversary two-way team.  He was the first man to star at the modern linebacker position; Bednarik actually entered the NFL just before the 4-3 defense did. The only question about Bednarik’s place on this roster was the position he would be labeled.

The sixth and final outside linebacker spot went to Ted Hendricks, a distinguished outside linebacker who sometimes is forgotten about today.  That may be more a feature than a bug: Hendrick was a consensus All-Pro for three different teams and in four different cities, so he lacks a strong fan base of support (only about half of his career was with the Raiders).  Hendricks won *four* Super Bowls. He made 8 Pro Bowls, played in both a 4-3 and a 3-4 defense, and was a member of the All-Decade teams of *both* the ’70s and ’80s.  He was an all-around outside linebacker, but he could rush the passer when needed: he had 4 sacks in a playoff win over the Bengals.  Hendricks intercepted a lot of passes for a linebacker (26) but his most impressive stat is that he has an NFL record 25 blocked kicks in his career.  A theme among the outside linebacker selections is versatility, and while I noted that Brooks and Ham had that in spades, and that Bell played a bunch of positions, and that Bednarik was an All-Pro at center and linebacker… you could argue that Hendricks was as complete and versatile as any outside linebacker ever.   When Dr. Z named his all-time team in 1999, he named Taylor his top rush linebacker, Ham, his top weakside linebacker, Dave Wilcox his team strongside linebacker, and Hendricks his top all-around linebacker. Hendricks was the only one of the 7 linebackers on the 75th anniversary team to play for two teams, and the fact that he starred with three teams.

Dave Wilcox was a worthy choice at finalist; as noted above, Dr. Z thought he was one of the best ever.  His reputation has faded a bit, and Brad Oremland has a good suspicion as to why:

Dave Wilcox — Two time AP1. Seven time Pro Bowl selection. Wilcox’s reputation suffers as much as anyone’s by the primacy awarded to Associated Press All-Pro selections. At least one major organization gave Wilcox higher recognition than AP every season from 1966-70. In 1973, AP was the only major outlet to deny Wilcox first-team All-Pro status. Former Rams QB Roman Gabriel once said that Wilcox “plays outside linebacker like Dick Butkus plays middle linebacker.” Wilcox was regarded as the hardest LB in history to block; every account of his career describes tight ends being unable to block him.

Dave Robinson was also a finalist and is a great Hall of Fame player, but did not merit serious inclusion into the top six.

I can’t find fault with those six selections (Taylor, Brooks, Ham, Bell, Bednarik, and Hendricks) at outside linebacker…. except, of course, for the fact that they put Junior Seau in with the inside linebackers instead of the outside linebackers.  The Chargers great was an inside linebacker for the first two seasons of his career, and was again lined up there during the end of his career in New England; but for the vast majority of his career, Seau was an outside linebacker.  Still, since the committee selected him as an inside linebacker, we’ll get to him later in this series.  How Seau would rank in this group of 6 would be a tough discussion, and perhaps that’s why the committee avoided that one.

Finally, a work about the oldest player on the list. Clarke Hinkle was included with the linebacker group but was not selected. Hinkle was a legendary player, but he was more known for his work on offense at fullback than as a linebacker. The first great Bears/Packers rivalry was between Nagurski (included with the running backs) and Hinkle. Chris Willis wrote a great article on the best 2-way players of the Pre-WWII era, and listed Nagurski and Hinkle as his top two choices. Bill Belichick apparently lobbied for Hinkle’s inclusion on the team; when the 1930s All-Decade team was named retroactively in 1969, Hinkle and Nagurski were the two fullbacks. All players were 2-way players during Hinkle’s era, and yes, he played linebacker in the Curly Lambeau’s 6-2 defense of that era. Hinkle, along with Nagurski and Marion Motley, were the three fullback/linebackers chosen for the 75th anniversary all-time two-way team. If one wants to find nits in his resume, Hinkle was not selected to the NFL’s 50th anniversary team and he was not one of the six backs chosen for the Hall of Fame’s inaugural 1963 class (he went in a year later).  Hinkle was not chosen to the 100th anniversary team, at either fullback (where I think would have made more sense) or here at linebacker.  But he was a legendary competitor and a worthy member of the Hall of Fame as one of the great Packers and all-time greats of the pre-war era.

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.