Can Rodgers erase Favre’s bad history?
Packers fans were confident: they were home, they were 7.5-point favorites, and they were facing a team they had defeated handily during the regular season. Unfortunately for them, the rematch went very differently: the Giants won, in overtime, 23-20.
But that game may give Rodgers and Packers fans something to point to as they prepare for the 2019 NFC Championship Game. Green Bay is headed to San Francisco, the site of a 37-8 49ers blowout in the regular season. San Francisco fans are confident: they are home, they are 7.5-point favorites, and they are facing a team they defeated handily during the regular season.
Of course, 49ers fans have positive examples to point to, as well. In fact, they have a lot of them, with Jimmy Garoppolo also having some experience he can point to as a backup. In 2014, Garoppolo was a rookie on the New England Patriots. In week 10 of that season, the Patriots blew out the Colts, 42-20, in Indianapolis, in a game best remembered for Jonas Gray hitting the national stage with 201 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. The two teams would later meet in Foxboro in the 2014 AFC Championship Game. New England was a 7.0-point home favorite, and demolished the Colts even more convincingly. So much so that the 45-7 victory is mostly remembered now for the “Deflategate” controversy that surfaced after the game.
Even Rodgers himself has some experience here with facing an NFC West team on the road in the conference championship game after getting blown out in the regular season. In 2014, the Packers faced the defending champion Seahawks in the Thursday night season opener; Green Bay was blown out, 36-16, and Rodgers struggled significantly. The two teams met in the last game of the NFC slate that year, too, and the Packers should have won: Green Bay jumped out to a 16-0 lead, and led 19-7 late, before blowing the game (including fumbling an onside kick) and losing in overtime, 28-22.
There have been 18 times where the team that hosted the conference championship game had beaten its opponent in the regular season by at least two touchdowns (technical note: I also filtered out division rivals, who face each other twice a year). The biggest regular season blowout of eventual championship contenders came in 1969, when the Vikings defeated the Browns, 51-3. In the NFL championship game that year, the results were similar: Minnesota jumped out to a 27-0 lead, ultimately advancing to Super Bowl IV with a 27-7 win. The home team/regular season winner went 12-6 in these rematches, and 9-2 when they won by at least 21 points in the regular season.
| Year | CCG Home | CCG Road | Reg Season | RS Pt Diff | Reg Season Box | Vegas | Playoff | Playoff | Playoff Box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1969 | MIN | CLE | W 51-3 | 48 | Boxscore | -8 | W | W 27-7 | Boxscore |
| 1991 | WAS | DET | W 45-0 | 45 | Boxscore | -14 | W | W 41-10 | Boxscore |
| 1981 | SFO | DAL | W 45-14 | 31 | Boxscore | 3 | W | W 28-27 | Boxscore |
| 2002 | OAK | TEN | W 52-25 | 27 | Boxscore | -9 | W | W 41-24 | Boxscore |
| 2007 | NWE | SDG | W 38-14 | 24 | Boxscore | -14 | W | W 21-12 | Boxscore |
| 1944 | NYG | GNB | W 24-0 | 24 | Boxscore | L | L 7-14 | Boxscore | |
| 1984 | MIA | PIT | W 31-7 | 24 | Boxscore | -10 | W | W 45-28 | Boxscore |
| 1947 | CRD | PHI | W 45-21 | 24 | Boxscore | W | W 28-21 | Boxscore | |
| 1981 | CIN | SDG | W 40-17 | 23 | Boxscore | -4.5 | W | W 27-7 | Boxscore |
| 2014 | NWE | IND | W 42-20 | 22 | Boxscore | -7 | W | W 45-7 | Boxscore |
| 2007 | GNB | NYG | W 35-13 | 22 | Boxscore | -7.5 | L | L 20-23 | Boxscore |
| 2014 | SEA | GNB | W 36-16 | 20 | Boxscore | -8.5 | W | W 28-22 | Boxscore |
| 1974 | OAK | PIT | W 17-0 | 17 | Boxscore | -5.5 | L | L 13-24 | Boxscore |
| 1979 | TAM | RAM | W 21-6 | 15 | Boxscore | 3.5 | L | L 0-9 | Boxscore |
| 2004 | PIT | NWE | W 34-20 | 14 | Boxscore | 3 | L | L 27-41 | Boxscore |
| 1990 | BUF | RAI | W 38-24 | 14 | Boxscore | -7 | W | W 51-3 | Boxscore |
| 1988 | CIN | BUF | W 35-21 | 14 | Boxscore | -4 | W | W 21-10 | Boxscore |
| 1946 | NYG | CHI | W 14-0 | 14 | Boxscore | L | L 14-24 | Boxscore |
The NFC Championship Game has a rich history, but perhaps no moment is more memorable than The Catch. That 1981 game was one of the closest and most exciting games in playoff history, but did you know the 49ers destroyed the Cowboys earlier that year?
The lesson: just because San Francisco blew out an opponent in the regular season, doesn’t mean the rematch will go the same way.