In short, it depends. UNC certainly needs help, and maybe a lot. Let’s assume Alabama makes it, and let’s assume Stanford beats Notre Dame. That would leave UNC fighting with the B10, B12, and the P12 for three spots.

Obviously the best-case scenario for UNC would be for Oklahoma State to beat OU, for Stanford to lose in the P12CG, and Michigan State to lose to Penn State and then beat Iowa. But they don’t need all of that; they only need one thing to happen, as I don’t think any conference sends a 2nd team over a 12-1 UNC that’s won 12 straight games. I’d say Stanford is probably not going to vault a 12-1 UNC, so maybe all UNC needs is Stanford to beat Notre Dame. But I’d have to give it some thought.