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Let’s start with the SRS ratings through nine weeks, excluding the Green Bay/Chicago Monday Night Football game:

RkTeamGMOVSOSSRSRecord
1Denver Broncos814.9-3.211.77-1
2Carolina Panthers812.3-2.89.45-3
3Green Bay Packers78.10.995-2
4Seattle Seahawks99.6-18.68-1
5San Francisco 49ers88.8-0.38.46-2
6Indianapolis Colts87.4-0.56.96-2
7Kansas City Chiefs911.2-4.36.99-0
8New Orleans Saints88.8-2.36.56-2
9Cincinnati Bengals96-0.55.56-3
10Dallas Cowboys95-0.14.95-4
11Detroit Lions82.513.55-3
12New England Patriots96.2-2.83.47-2
13Arizona Cardinals8-1.82.60.84-4
14Tennessee Titans80.8-0.20.54-4
15Baltimore Ravens80.30.20.43-5
16Miami Dolphins8-1.61.70.14-4
17San Diego Chargers83-3.1-0.14-4
18Chicago Bears70.6-1.4-0.84-3
19Philadelphia Eagles9-0.3-0.9-1.34-5
20Cleveland Browns9-3.11.8-1.34-5
21Buffalo Bills9-5.62.6-33-6
22Washington Redskins8-6.32.3-3.93-5
23St. Louis Rams9-4.80.4-4.43-6
24Atlanta Falcons8-5.30.2-52-6
25Houston Texans8-9.43.4-62-6
26Tampa Bay Buccaneers8-8.31.9-6.40-8
27Minnesota Vikings8-7.91.3-6.61-7
28New York Giants8-9.52.9-6.62-6
29New York Jets9-7.2-0.3-7.55-4
30Pittsburgh Steelers8-6.1-1.6-7.82-6
31Oakland Raiders8-7.4-0.7-8.13-5
32Jacksonville Jaguars8-21.93.7-18.10-8


Today, I want to use the SRS on the single-game level to analyze two things: the best/worst performances of the year, and the most surprising results of the year (regular readers will remember that I did this last year, too).

The two best single-game SRS scores come courtesy of victories over the 49ers. Seattle won by 26 in Seattle (after adjusting for home field, a Margin of Victory of 23), giving them the same score as the Colts, who won by 20 points in San Francisco. Since the 49ers are 8.4 points better than average, each of those wins gets recorded as +31.4.

What about the biggest surprise of the year? That came when the Rams upset the Texans. St. Louis has a rating of -4.4; when the Rams traveled to Houston (SRS of -6.0), we would “expect” — when retrofitting the data — that the Texans would win by 1.4 points. Instead, St. Louis won by 25 points, producing a result that is 26.4 points off of our “projection.” That makes that game the biggest surprise of the year. The second biggest surprise? The Eagles (-1.3) winning in Oakland (-8.1) by 29 points, when they were expected to win by just 3.8 points.

As always, the table below is fully sortable and searchable (it’s showing 25 entries right now, but you can change that, too). Here’s how to read the first row. In week 3, Indianapolis traveled to San Francisco, and won, 27-7. That gave them a Margin of Victory of 23 (since the Colts were on the road), against a team that has a rating of +8.4. Therefore, the Colts get an SRS score of 31.4 in that game. The “Exp” column shows what you would expect to happen based on the location of the game and each team’s SRS rating: here, the Colts (6.9) in San Francisco (8.4) would be expected to lose by 4.5 points. Since Indianapolis actually won by 20 points, the Colts get a “Diff” of 24.5.

WeekTeamH/RTeamW/LPFPAMOVSOSSRSExpDiff
3Indianapolis Colts@San Francisco 49ersWin277238.431.4-4.524.5
2Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ersWin293238.431.43.222.8
8Cincinnati BengalsNew York JetsWin49937-7.529.51624
3Carolina PanthersNew York GiantsWin38035-6.628.419.118.9
4Denver BroncosPhiladelphia EaglesWin522029-1.327.715.916.1
9Philadelphia Eagles@Oakland RaidersWin492032-8.123.93.825.2
4San Francisco 49ers@St. Louis RamsWin351127-4.422.69.814.2
5Arizona CardinalsCarolina PanthersWin226139.422.4-5.621.6
6St. Louis Rams@Houston TexansWin381328-622-1.426.4
5San Francisco 49ersHouston TexansWin34328-62217.413.6
3New Orleans SaintsArizona CardinalsWin317210.821.88.615.4
6Carolina Panthers@Minnesota VikingsWin351028-6.621.41312
1Denver BroncosBaltimore RavensWin4927190.419.414.27.8
4Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville JaguarsWin37337-18.118.922.111.9
4New Orleans SaintsMiami DolphinsWin3817180.118.19.411.6
7San Francisco 49ers@Tennessee TitansWin3117170.517.54.99.1
1Seattle Seahawks@Carolina PanthersWin12789.417.4-3.98.9
8Denver BroncosWashington RedskinsWin452121-3.917.118.65.4
3Dallas CowboysSt. Louis RamsWin31721-4.416.612.311.7
9Carolina PanthersAtlanta FalconsWin341021-51617.46.6
7Seattle Seahawks@Arizona CardinalsWin3422150.815.84.87.2
7Dallas Cowboys@Philadelphia EaglesWin17317-1.315.73.210.8
6Detroit Lions@Cleveland BrownsWin311717-1.315.71.812.2
1Miami Dolphins@Cleveland BrownsWin231016-1.314.7-1.614.6
7Indianapolis ColtsDenver BroncosWin3933311.714.7-1.77.7
8Carolina Panthers@Tampa Bay BuccaneersWin311321-6.414.612.85.2
4Tennessee TitansNew York JetsWin381322-7.514.51114
4Kansas City ChiefsNew York GiantsWin31721-6.614.416.57.5
2Denver Broncos@New York GiantsWin412321-6.614.415.32.7
6San Diego ChargersIndianapolis ColtsWin19976.913.9-4.114.1
2Miami Dolphins@Indianapolis ColtsWin242076.913.9-9.913.9
8San Francisco 49ersNJacksonville JaguarsWin421032-18.113.926.65.4
7Green Bay PackersCleveland BrownsWin311315-1.313.713.34.7
4Cleveland BrownsCincinnati BengalsWin17685.513.5-3.814.8
5Green Bay PackersDetroit LionsWin229103.513.58.54.5
9New England PatriotsPittsburgh SteelersWin553121-7.813.214.29.8
5Kansas City Chiefs@Tennessee TitansWin2617120.512.53.45.6
3Chicago Bears@Pittsburgh SteelersWin402320-7.812.2413
8New Orleans SaintsBuffalo BillsWin351715-31212.45.6
3Baltimore RavensHouston TexansWin30918-6129.411.6
1San Francisco 49ersGreen Bay PackersWin342839122.43.6
3Kansas City Chiefs@Philadelphia EaglesWin261613-1.311.75.24.8
5Indianapolis ColtsSeattle SeahawksWin342838.611.61.34.7
5Philadelphia Eagles@New York GiantsWin362118-6.611.42.412.6
2Green Bay PackersWashington RedskinsWin382015-3.911.115.92.1
4San Diego ChargersDallas CowboysWin302164.910.9-211
5Denver Broncos@Dallas CowboysWin514864.910.93.8-0.8
1Kansas City Chiefs@Jacksonville JaguarsWin28229-18.110.9224
3New England PatriotsTampa Bay BuccaneersWin23317-6.410.612.87.2
5New Orleans Saints@Chicago BearsWin261811-0.810.24.23.8
9Kansas City Chiefs@Buffalo BillsWin231313-3106.93.1
3Cincinnati BengalsGreen Bay PackersWin34301910-0.54.5
6San Francisco 49ersArizona CardinalsWin322090.89.810.61.4
8New York Giants@Philadelphia EaglesWin15711-1.39.7-8.416.4
7Cincinnati Bengals@Detroit LionsWin272463.59.5-0.93.9
9New York JetsNew Orleans SaintsWin262036.59.5-1117
8Green Bay Packers@Minnesota VikingsWin443116-6.69.412.60.4
7Houston Texans@Kansas City ChiefsLoss161726.98.9-15.914.9
2Dallas Cowboys@Kansas City ChiefsLoss161726.98.9-54
9Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Seattle SeahawksLoss242708.68.6-1815
6Pittsburgh Steelers@New York JetsWin19616-7.58.5-3.216.2
6Dallas CowboysWashington RedskinsWin311612-3.98.111.83.2
7Carolina PanthersSt. Louis RamsWin301512-4.47.616.8-1.8
6Philadelphia Eagles@Tampa Bay BuccaneersWin312014-6.47.62.18.9
2Buffalo BillsCarolina PanthersWin2423-29.47.4-9.410.4
5Cincinnati BengalsNew England PatriotsWin13643.47.45.11.9
8New England PatriotsMiami DolphinsWin271770.17.16.43.6
5Cleveland BrownsBuffalo BillsWin372410-374.78.3
5Oakland RaidersSan Diego ChargersWin27177-0.16.9-515
3Seattle SeahawksJacksonville JaguarsWin451725-18.16.929.7-1.7
6New England PatriotsNew Orleans SaintsWin302706.56.503
7New York GiantsMinnesota VikingsWin23713-6.66.4313
3Detroit Lions@Washington RedskinsWin272010-3.96.14.42.6
5Baltimore Ravens@Miami DolphinsWin262360.16.1-2.65.6
8Arizona CardinalsAtlanta FalconsWin271311-568.85.2
1Oakland Raiders@Indianapolis ColtsLoss1721-16.95.9-1814
6Kansas City ChiefsOakland RaidersWin24714-8.15.918-1
1Houston Texans@San Diego ChargersWin31286-0.15.9-8.811.8
5Dallas CowboysDenver BroncosLoss4851-611.75.7-3.80.8
9Tennessee Titans@St. Louis RamsWin282110-4.45.61.95.1
1Chicago BearsCincinnati BengalsWin242105.55.5-3.36.3
8Dallas Cowboys@Detroit LionsLoss303123.55.5-1.60.6
6Green Bay Packers@Baltimore RavensWin191750.45.45.6-3.6
1Green Bay Packers@San Francisco 49ersLoss2834-38.45.4-2.4-3.6
1Philadelphia Eagles@Washington RedskinsWin33279-3.95.1-0.46.4
7Buffalo Bills@Miami DolphinsWin232150.15.1-68
4New England Patriots@Atlanta FalconsWin302310-555.41.6
4Washington Redskins@Oakland RaidersWin241413-8.14.91.28.8
3Denver BroncosOakland RaidersWin372113-8.14.922.7-6.7
2San Diego Chargers@Philadelphia EaglesWin33306-1.34.7-1.94.9
6Tennessee Titans@Seattle SeahawksLoss1320-48.64.6-11.14.1
6Seattle SeahawksTennessee TitansWin201340.54.511.1-4.1
9Miami DolphinsCincinnati BengalsWin2220-15.54.5-2.54.5
3Green Bay Packers@Cincinnati BengalsLoss3034-15.54.50.5-4.5
2Arizona CardinalsDetroit LionsWin252113.54.50.43.6
4Detroit LionsChicago BearsWin40325-0.84.27.20.8
6Baltimore RavensGreen Bay PackersLoss1719-594-5.63.6
5Seattle Seahawks@Indianapolis ColtsLoss2834-36.93.9-1.3-4.7
7Denver Broncos@Indianapolis ColtsLoss3339-36.93.91.7-7.7
9Minnesota Vikings@Dallas CowboysLoss2327-14.93.9-14.510.5
8Cleveland Browns@Kansas City ChiefsLoss1723-36.93.9-11.25.2
2Baltimore RavensCleveland BrownsWin1465-1.33.74.73.3
8Seattle Seahawks@St. Louis RamsWin1498-4.43.610-5
2Houston TexansTennessee TitansWin302430.53.5-3.59.5
1Atlanta Falcons@New Orleans SaintsLoss1723-36.53.5-14.58.5
9Cleveland BrownsBaltimore RavensWin241830.43.41.34.7
7New York JetsNew England PatriotsWin302703.43.4-811
2New York Jets@New England PatriotsLoss101303.43.4-1411
6New Orleans Saints@New England PatriotsLoss273003.43.40-3
6Cincinnati Bengals@Buffalo BillsWin27246-335.5-2.5
1New York Giants@Dallas CowboysLoss3136-24.92.9-14.59.5
8Detroit LionsDallas CowboysWin3130-24.92.91.6-0.6
2Kansas City ChiefsDallas CowboysWin1716-24.92.95-4
9Washington RedskinsSan Diego ChargersWin30243-0.12.9-0.86.8
7San Diego Chargers@Jacksonville JaguarsWin24621-18.12.9153
4Houston TexansSeattle SeahawksLoss2023-68.62.6-11.58.5
1Tennessee Titans@Pittsburgh SteelersWin16910-7.82.25.31.7
1New England Patriots@Buffalo BillsWin23215-323.4-1.4
8Kansas City ChiefsCleveland BrownsWin23173-1.31.711.2-5.2
5New England Patriots@Cincinnati BengalsLoss613-45.51.5-5.1-1.9
2Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew Orleans SaintsLoss1416-56.51.5-9.87.8
2Minnesota Vikings@Chicago BearsLoss30312-0.81.2-8.87.8
9Cincinnati Bengals@Miami DolphinsLoss202210.11.12.5-4.5
3New York JetsBuffalo BillsWin27204-31-1.68.6
9Houston TexansIndianapolis ColtsLoss2427-66.90.9-9.96.9
1St. Louis RamsArizona CardinalsWin272400.80.8-2.25.2
8St. Louis RamsSeattle SeahawksLoss914-88.60.6-105
1Carolina PanthersSeattle SeahawksLoss712-88.60.63.9-8.9
3San Diego Chargers@Tennessee TitansLoss172000.50.5-3.60.6
7Pittsburgh SteelersBaltimore RavensWin191600.40.4-5.28.2
4Buffalo BillsBaltimore RavensWin232000.40.4-0.43.4
3Cleveland Browns@Minnesota VikingsWin31277-6.60.42.31.7
1Detroit LionsMinnesota VikingsWin34247-6.60.413-3
7Washington RedskinsChicago BearsWin45411-0.80.2-0.14.1
9Indianapolis Colts@Houston TexansWin27246-609.9-6.9
4Seattle Seahawks@Houston TexansWin23206-6011.5-8.5
5New York Jets@Atlanta FalconsWin30285-50-5.57.5
3Tennessee TitansSan Diego ChargersWin20170-0.1-0.13.6-0.6
2Detroit Lions@Arizona CardinalsLoss2125-10.8-0.2-0.4-3.6
2Atlanta FalconsSt. Louis RamsWin31244-4.4-0.42.44.6
4Arizona Cardinals@Tampa Bay BuccaneersWin13106-6.4-0.44.2-1.2
6Buffalo BillsCincinnati BengalsLoss2427-65.5-0.5-5.52.5
7Detroit LionsCincinnati BengalsLoss2427-65.5-0.50.9-3.9
6Arizona Cardinals@San Francisco 49ersLoss2032-98.4-0.6-10.6-1.4
4Minnesota VikingsNPittsburgh SteelersWin34277-7.8-0.81.25.8
2Cincinnati BengalsPittsburgh SteelersWin20107-7.8-0.816.3-6.3
1Cincinnati Bengals@Chicago BearsLoss21240-0.8-0.83.3-6.3
3Atlanta Falcons@Miami DolphinsLoss2327-10.1-0.9-8.14.1
2Carolina Panthers@Buffalo BillsLoss23242-3-19.4-10.4
5Detroit Lions@Green Bay PackersLoss922-109-1-8.5-4.5
6Jacksonville Jaguars@Denver BroncosLoss1935-1311.7-1.3-32.816.8
3Oakland Raiders@Denver BroncosLoss2137-1311.7-1.3-22.76.7
7Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay BuccaneersWin31235-6.4-1.44.43.6
2New Orleans Saints@Tampa Bay BuccaneersWin16145-6.4-1.49.8-7.8
2Pittsburgh Steelers@Cincinnati BengalsLoss1020-75.5-1.5-16.36.3
4Chicago Bears@Detroit LionsLoss3240-53.5-1.5-7.2-0.8
1Buffalo BillsNew England PatriotsLoss2123-53.4-1.6-3.41.4
1New Orleans SaintsAtlanta FalconsWin23173-5-214.5-8.5
7St. Louis Rams@Carolina PanthersLoss1530-129.4-2.6-16.81.8
4Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo BillsLoss20230-3-30.4-3.4
1Minnesota Vikings@Detroit LionsLoss2434-73.5-3.5-133
8Miami Dolphins@New England PatriotsLoss1727-73.4-3.6-6.4-3.6
6Chicago BearsNew York GiantsWin27213-6.6-3.68.8-2.8
6New York Giants@Chicago BearsLoss2127-3-0.8-3.8-8.82.8
3Miami DolphinsAtlanta FalconsWin27231-5-48.1-4.1
9Baltimore Ravens@Cleveland BrownsLoss1824-3-1.3-4.3-1.3-4.7
1Arizona Cardinals@St. Louis RamsLoss24270-4.4-4.42.2-5.2
5Chicago BearsNew Orleans SaintsLoss1826-116.5-4.5-4.2-3.8
2Cleveland Browns@Baltimore RavensLoss614-50.4-4.6-4.7-3.3
1Dallas CowboysNew York GiantsWin36312-6.6-4.614.5-9.5
7Chicago Bears@Washington RedskinsLoss4145-1-3.9-4.90.1-4.1
5Tennessee TitansKansas City ChiefsLoss1726-126.9-5.1-3.4-5.6
6Denver BroncosJacksonville JaguarsWin351913-18.1-5.132.8-16.8
4Tampa Bay BuccaneersArizona CardinalsLoss1013-60.8-5.2-4.21.2
1Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New York JetsLoss17182-7.5-5.5-1.90.9
5Miami DolphinsBaltimore RavensLoss2326-60.4-5.62.6-5.6
9Dallas CowboysMinnesota VikingsWin27231-6.6-5.614.5-10.5
2Washington Redskins@Green Bay PackersLoss2038-159-6-15.9-2.1
7Cleveland Browns@Green Bay PackersLoss1331-159-6-13.3-4.7
9Buffalo BillsKansas City ChiefsLoss1323-136.9-6.1-6.9-3.1
3Philadelphia EaglesKansas City ChiefsLoss1626-136.9-6.1-5.2-4.8
2Philadelphia EaglesSan Diego ChargersLoss3033-6-0.1-6.11.9-4.9
4Dallas Cowboys@San Diego ChargersLoss2130-6-0.1-6.12-11
9Seattle SeahawksTampa Bay BuccaneersWin27240-6.4-6.418-15
7Arizona CardinalsSeattle SeahawksLoss2234-158.6-6.4-4.8-7.2
3Washington RedskinsDetroit LionsLoss2027-103.5-6.5-4.4-2.6
4Atlanta FalconsNew England PatriotsLoss2330-103.4-6.6-5.4-1.6
9San Diego Chargers@Washington RedskinsLoss2430-3-3.9-6.90.8-6.8
2Indianapolis ColtsMiami DolphinsLoss2024-70.1-6.99.9-13.9
8Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay PackersLoss3144-169-7-12.6-0.4
1Indianapolis ColtsOakland RaidersWin21171-8.1-7.118-14
6Washington Redskins@Dallas CowboysLoss1631-124.9-7.1-11.8-3.2
6Oakland Raiders@Kansas City ChiefsLoss724-146.9-7.1-181
6Indianapolis Colts@San Diego ChargersLoss919-7-0.1-7.14.1-14.1
5St. Louis RamsJacksonville JaguarsWin342011-18.1-7.116.8-2.8
1Baltimore Ravens@Denver BroncosLoss2749-1911.7-7.3-14.2-7.8
7New England Patriots@New York JetsLoss27300-7.5-7.58-11
2New England PatriotsNew York JetsWin13100-7.5-7.514-11
8Oakland RaidersPittsburgh SteelersWin21180-7.8-7.82.70.3
7Baltimore Ravens@Pittsburgh SteelersLoss16190-7.8-7.85.2-8.2
7Miami DolphinsBuffalo BillsLoss2123-5-3-86-8
7Kansas City ChiefsHouston TexansWin1716-2-6-815.9-14.9
8Pittsburgh Steelers@Oakland RaidersLoss18210-8.1-8.1-2.7-0.3
3Minnesota VikingsCleveland BrownsLoss2731-7-1.3-8.3-2.3-1.7
1New York JetsTampa Bay BuccaneersWin1817-2-6.4-8.41.9-0.9
8Buffalo Bills@New Orleans SaintsLoss1735-156.5-8.5-12.4-5.6
7Tennessee TitansSan Francisco 49ersLoss1731-178.4-8.6-4.9-9.1
2Chicago BearsMinnesota VikingsWin3130-2-6.6-8.68.8-7.8
2Tennessee Titans@Houston TexansLoss2430-3-6-93.5-9.5
2St. Louis Rams@Atlanta FalconsLoss2431-4-5-9-2.4-4.6
4Cincinnati Bengals@Cleveland BrownsLoss617-8-1.3-9.33.8-14.8
2New York GiantsDenver BroncosLoss2341-2111.7-9.3-15.3-2.7
8Washington Redskins@Denver BroncosLoss2145-2111.7-9.3-18.6-5.4
1Pittsburgh SteelersTennessee TitansLoss916-100.5-9.5-5.3-1.7
9St. Louis RamsTennessee TitansLoss2128-100.5-9.5-1.9-5.1
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers@Atlanta FalconsLoss2331-5-5-10-4.4-3.6
8Atlanta Falcons@Arizona CardinalsLoss1327-110.8-10.2-8.8-5.2
1Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia EaglesLoss2733-9-1.3-10.30.4-6.4
9New Orleans Saints@New York JetsLoss2026-3-7.5-10.511-17
2Oakland RaidersJacksonville JaguarsWin1997-18.1-11.113.1-3.1
5Buffalo Bills@Cleveland BrownsLoss2437-10-1.3-11.3-4.7-8.3
3Buffalo Bills@New York JetsLoss2027-4-7.5-11.51.6-8.6
4Miami Dolphins@New Orleans SaintsLoss1738-186.5-11.5-9.4-11.6
8Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina PanthersLoss1331-219.4-11.6-12.8-5.2
9Atlanta Falcons@Carolina PanthersLoss1034-219.4-11.6-17.4-6.6
1San Diego ChargersHouston TexansLoss2831-6-6-128.8-11.8
7Philadelphia EaglesDallas CowboysLoss317-174.9-12.1-3.2-10.8
5Carolina Panthers@Arizona CardinalsLoss622-130.8-12.25.6-21.6
5Atlanta FalconsNew York JetsLoss2830-5-7.5-12.55.5-7.5
6Cleveland BrownsDetroit LionsLoss1731-173.5-13.5-1.8-12.2
3Tampa Bay Buccaneers@New England PatriotsLoss323-173.4-13.6-12.8-7.2
4Pittsburgh SteelersNMinnesota VikingsLoss2734-7-6.6-13.6-1.2-5.8
4New York Giants@Kansas City ChiefsLoss731-216.9-14.1-16.5-7.5
2San Francisco 49ers@Seattle SeahawksLoss329-238.6-14.4-3.2-22.8
3Arizona Cardinals@New Orleans SaintsLoss731-216.5-14.5-8.6-15.4
2Jacksonville Jaguars@Oakland RaidersLoss919-7-8.1-15.1-13.13.1
5San Diego Chargers@Oakland RaidersLoss1727-7-8.1-15.15-15
6Tampa Bay BuccaneersPhiladelphia EaglesLoss2031-14-1.3-15.3-2.1-8.9
5Jacksonville Jaguars@St. Louis RamsLoss2034-11-4.4-15.4-16.82.8
1Cleveland BrownsMiami DolphinsLoss1023-160.1-15.91.6-14.6
3San Francisco 49ersIndianapolis ColtsLoss727-236.9-16.14.5-24.5
3St. Louis Rams@Dallas CowboysLoss731-214.9-16.1-12.3-11.7
3Jacksonville Jaguars@Seattle SeahawksLoss1745-258.6-16.4-29.71.7
4Oakland RaidersWashington RedskinsLoss1424-13-3.9-16.9-1.2-8.8
4Philadelphia Eagles@Denver BroncosLoss2052-2911.7-17.3-15.9-16.1
3Houston Texans@Baltimore RavensLoss930-180.4-17.6-9.4-11.6
9Pittsburgh Steelers@New England PatriotsLoss3155-213.4-17.6-14.2-9.8
8Philadelphia EaglesNew York GiantsLoss715-11-6.6-17.68.4-16.4
6Minnesota VikingsCarolina PanthersLoss1035-289.4-18.6-13-12
4St. Louis RamsSan Francisco 49ersLoss1135-278.4-18.6-9.8-14.2
5New York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesLoss2136-18-1.3-19.3-2.4-12.6
5Houston Texans@San Francisco 49ersLoss334-288.4-19.6-17.4-13.6
7Minnesota Vikings@New York GiantsLoss723-13-6.6-19.6-3-13
3Pittsburgh SteelersChicago BearsLoss2340-20-0.8-20.8-4-13
7Jacksonville JaguarsSan Diego ChargersLoss624-21-0.1-21.1-15-3
4New York Jets@Tennessee TitansLoss1338-220.5-21.5-11-14
1Jacksonville JaguarsKansas City ChiefsLoss228-296.9-22.1-22-4
8Jacksonville JaguarsNSan Francisco 49ersLoss1042-328.4-23.6-26.6-5.4
6New York JetsPittsburgh SteelersLoss619-16-7.8-23.83.2-16.2
3New York Giants@Carolina PanthersLoss038-359.4-25.6-19.1-18.9
4Jacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis ColtsLoss337-376.9-30.1-22.1-11.9
8New York Jets@Cincinnati BengalsLoss949-375.5-31.5-16-24
6Houston TexansSt. Louis RamsLoss1338-28-4.4-32.41.4-26.4
9Oakland RaidersPhiladelphia EaglesLoss2049-32-1.3-33.3-3.8-25.2

There’s a lot to digest, so I’ll leave the analysis to you. But there’s one more thing I want to do with that data: figure out which teams are most/least consistent. If you take the absolute value [1]By definition, the sum of all the “Diff” results for each game will be zero for each team on the season level. of the difference column for each team in each game, you get a sense of the most/least consistent teams. If you ask me, the results here match my intuition: the Texans, Jets, Colts, 49ers, and Eagles are the least consistent teams, while teams like Green Bay (again, this is prior to Monday Night) and Detroit have been successful but flying under the radar. The “variability” of each team — defined as the average of the absolute value of the “Diff” column in the table above — is in the “Var” column in the table below.

RkTeamGMOVSOSSRSVarRecord
1Houston Texans8-9.43.4-612.92-6
2New York Jets9-7.2-0.3-7.512.25-4
3Indianapolis Colts87.4-0.56.912.26-2
4San Francisco 49ers88.8-0.38.411.86-2
5Philadelphia Eagles9-0.3-0.9-1.311.84-5
6Carolina Panthers812.3-2.89.410.75-3
7New York Giants8-9.52.9-6.610.42-6
8Oakland Raiders8-7.4-0.7-8.19.33-5
9New Orleans Saints88.8-2.36.59.16-2
10Seattle Seahawks99.6-18.68.78-1
11St. Louis Rams9-4.80.4-4.48.53-6
12San Diego Chargers83-3.1-0.18.44-4
13Miami Dolphins8-1.61.70.18.24-4
14Denver Broncos814.9-3.211.787-1
15Cleveland Browns9-3.11.8-1.37.74-5
16Pittsburgh Steelers8-6.1-1.6-7.87.72-6
17Cincinnati Bengals96-0.55.57.66-3
18Arizona Cardinals8-1.82.60.87.64-4
19Dallas Cowboys95-0.14.96.95-4
20Minnesota Vikings8-7.91.3-6.66.81-7
21Tampa Bay Buccaneers8-8.31.9-6.46.20-8
22Tennessee Titans80.8-0.20.56.24-4
23Jacksonville Jaguars8-21.93.7-18.16.10-8
24Baltimore Ravens80.30.20.463-5
25Buffalo Bills9-5.62.6-35.73-6
26New England Patriots96.2-2.83.45.67-2
27Kansas City Chiefs911.2-4.36.95.69-0
28Chicago Bears70.6-1.4-0.85.54-3
29Atlanta Falcons8-5.30.2-55.22-6
30Washington Redskins8-6.32.3-3.94.93-5
31Detroit Lions82.513.53.95-3
32Green Bay Packers78.10.993.35-2

References

References
1 By definition, the sum of all the “Diff” results for each game will be zero for each team on the season level.
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