≡ Menu

Wilson scrambles and gets credit for it.

Wilson scrambles and gets credit for it.

I hate passer rating. So do you. Everyone does, except for Kerry Byrne. Passer rating is stupid because it gives a 20-yard bonus for each completion, a 100-yard penalty for each interception, and an 80-yard bonus for each touchdown. In reality, there should be no (or a very small) weight on completions, a 45-yard weight on interceptions, and a 20-yard weight on touchdowns.

But let’s ignore those issues today. Reading Mike Tanier’s recent article inspired me to make see what passer rating would look like if we make three tweaks. I’m not going to change any of the weights in the formula, but just redefine the variables.

1) There’s no reason to exclude sack data from passer rating. I’ve stopped writing about how sacks are just as much (if not more) on the quarterback than other passing metrics, because I think that horse has been pretty well beaten by Jason Lisk and me.

2) Scrambles should be treated like completed passes. If Russell Wilson is about to be sacked, but escapes and run for 7 yards, why should that be treated any differently than if Peyton Manning is about to be sacked, but throws a seven-yard pass at the last second?

3) Lost Fumbles should be counted with interceptions. One could make a few advanced arguments here — we should use all fumbles instead of lost fumbles, or fumbles should be given an even stronger weight than interceptions (although consider that in light of this post), or that we should limit ourselves to just fumbles lost on passing plays. I’m going to play the simple card here, and just use lost fumbles data on the season level.

Passer rating consists of four metrics, all weighted equally: completions per attempt, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. I will use the same formula with the same weights and the same variables, but redefine what those variables are. Here are the new definitions, with the additions in blue.

Completion percentage is now (Completions plus Scrambles) / (Pass Attempts plus Sacks plus Scrambles)

Yards per Attempt is now (Passing Yards plus Yards on Scrambles minus Sack Yards Lost) / (Pass Attempts plus Sacks plus Scrambles)

Touchdown Rate is now (Passing Touchdowns plus Touchdowns on Scrambles) / (Pass Attempts plus Sacks plus Scrambles)

Turnover Rate will replace Interception Rate in the formula, and is calculated as (Interceptions plus Fumbles Lost) / (Pass Attempts plus Sacks plus Scrambles)

The table below lists all of those metrics for the 32 quarterbacks who had enough pass attempts to qualify for the passer rating crown, along with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, who just missed qualifying. Let’s look at the Robert Griffin III line.

He completed 258 of 393 pass attempts for 3200 yards, with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions. Those are the standard stats that make up passer rating, but he also took 30 sacks and lost 217 yards on those sacks. That makes Griffin’s numbers worse, but he also had 38 scrambles for 302 yards (which gets recorded as 38 completed passes for 302 yards), with no scramble touchdowns. Finally, he lost two fumbles. His new completion percentage is 64.2%, his new yards per attempt is 7.13, his new touchdown rate is 4.3%, and his turnover rate (which includes fumbles) is 1.5%. The final two columns show each quarterback’s passer rating under the normal system and their passer rating using these metrics, which I’ll call the FPPR for short.

RkNameCmpAttYdsTDIntSkYdsSCRSYd/TDFLCMP%Y/ATD RTTO RTPRFPPR
1Peyton Manning4005834659371121137427/0266.4%7.486.1%2.1%105.8100
2Aaron Rodgers37155242953985129318162/1462.6%6.716.4%1.9%10895.6
3Tom Brady401637482734827182422/1060.6%6.995.2%1.2%98.794.2
4Robert Griffin III25839332002053021738302/0264.2%7.134.3%1.5%102.493.4
5Matt Ryan422615471932142821019137/1266.6%7.025%2.4%99.193.4
6Alex Smith15321817371352413713111/0165.1%6.715.1%2.4%104.191.5
7Russell Wilson252393311826103320347298/2363.2%6.795.9%2.7%10091.3
8Drew Brees4226705177431926190315/0160.8%7.166.2%2.9%96.391.2
9Colin Kaepernick13621818141031611227225/1262.5%7.384.2%1.9%98.391
10Ben Roethlisberger2844493265268301821394/0360.4%6.465.3%2.2%9787.6
11Matt Schaub3505444008221227216210/0061.4%6.643.8%2.1%90.785
12Eli Manning3215363948261519136941/0158.5%6.834.6%2.8%87.282.9
13Tony Romo4256484903281936263965/0362.6%6.794%3.2%90.582.8
14Cam Newton280485386919123624434282/1356.6%7.043.6%2.7%86.279.3
15Joe Flacco3175313817221035227324/0456.2%6.353.9%2.5%87.778
16Andy Dalton329528366927164622919113/1458.7%5.994.7%3.4%87.477.6
17Carson Palmer3455654018221426199425/0558.7%6.463.7%3.2%85.376.9
18Josh Freeman306558406527172616120143/0254%6.74.5%3.1%81.676.8
19Sam Bradford32855137022113352331598/0157.1%5.943.5%2.3%82.676.3
20Ryan Fitzpatrick306505340024163016133185/0659.7%6.034.2%3.9%83.374.9
21Christian Ponder300483293518123218434241/2560.8%5.453.6%3.1%81.274.7
22Matthew Stafford43572749672017292121996/1458.6%6.262.7%2.7%79.874.7
23Philip Rivers3385273606261549311734/0759.2%5.714.5%3.8%88.674.3
24Jay Cutler255434303319143825022227/0456.1%6.093.8%3.6%81.371.8
25Andrew Luck339627437423184124634241/2553.1%6.223.6%3.3%76.570.5
26Michael Vick204351236212102815338298/0558%6.012.9%3.6%78.170.1
27Nick Foles16126516996520131739/1357.5%5.52.4%2.7%79.169.5
28Brandon Weeden297517338514172818614103/0155.6%5.912.5%3.2%72.668
29Blaine Gabbert16227816629622158950/0355.3%5.032.9%2.9%77.466.7
30Ryan Tannehill2824843294121335234759/0454.9%5.932.3%3.2%76.166.7
31Jake Locker177314217610112515125233/0455.5%6.22.7%4.1%7466.2
32Chad Henne16630820841111281691157/0251%5.683.2%3.7%72.263.2
33Matt Cassel16127717966121910116124/0656.7%5.831.9%5.8%66.756
34Mark Sanchez2464532883131834209830/0851.3%5.462.6%5.3%66.954.5

The world certainly doesn’t need another passer rating formula. But I thought this would be a fun thing to do.

{ 14 comments }