The Patriots are 10-3 But Just 6-7 Against the Spread

by Chase Stuart on December 13, 2013

in Checkdowns, Trivia, Vegas

If you look at the Patriots’ PFR page, you’ll see that the Patriots are a 10-3team that’s played like an 8-5 team that has a 6-7 record against the spread. I wondered how often a team with such a good record was below average against the spread. The answer: pretty frequently. Which I suppose isn’t too surprising, since Vegas doesn’t like to make it so easy to win money that all you need to do is pick winners.

New England has mirrored its ancestors from 35 years ago, who also started 10-3 but posted a 7-6 record against the spread. The table below shows all teams from 1978 to 2012, excluding the strike years, to win at least 3 more games outright through 13 weeks than against the spread. In an expected turn of events, the top 4 teams on the list all made the Super Bowl in the prior year. That leads to being favored frequently, and if you win enough close games, you’ll make this list.

Year	Tm	Record	Vegas	Win%	Cover%	Diff
1986	chi	11-2-0	4-9-0	0.846	0.308	0.538
2000	oti	10-3-0	4-9-0	0.769	0.308	0.462
1997	gnb	10-3-0	3-8-2	0.769	0.308	0.462
1990	sfo	12-1-0	6-7-0	0.923	0.462	0.462
1998	sfo	10-3-0	4-8-1	0.769	0.346	0.423
2009	nor	13-0-0	8-5-0	1	0.615	0.385
1986	nwe	10-3-0	5-8-0	0.769	0.385	0.385
1980	pit	8-5-0	3-10-0	0.615	0.231	0.385
1979	dal	8-5-0	3-10-0	0.615	0.231	0.385
1978	ram	10-3-0	4-7-2	0.769	0.385	0.385
2010	nor	10-3-0	5-7-1	0.769	0.423	0.346
2002	sfo	9-4-0	4-8-1	0.692	0.346	0.346
1999	jax	12-1-0	7-5-1	0.923	0.577	0.346
1997	sfo	11-2-0	6-6-1	0.846	0.5	0.346
1978	pit	11-2-0	6-6-1	0.846	0.5	0.346
2012	atl	11-2-0	7-6-0	0.846	0.538	0.308
2011	pit	10-3-0	6-7-0	0.769	0.462	0.308
2011	gnb	13-0-0	9-4-0	1	0.692	0.308
2009	clt	13-0-0	9-4-0	1	0.692	0.308
2004	atl	10-3-0	6-7-0	0.769	0.462	0.308
2002	gnb	10-3-0	6-7-0	0.769	0.462	0.308
2002	pit	7-5-1	3-9-1	0.577	0.269	0.308
1998	den	13-0-0	9-4-0	1	0.692	0.308
1992	sfo	11-2-0	7-6-0	0.846	0.538	0.308
1991	buf	11-2-0	7-6-0	0.846	0.538	0.308
1986	nyj	10-3-0	6-7-0	0.769	0.462	0.308
1986	nyg	11-2-0	6-5-2	0.846	0.538	0.308
1986	was	11-2-0	7-6-0	0.846	0.538	0.308
1978	nwe	10-3-0	6-7-0	0.769	0.462	0.308
1978	dal	9-4-0	5-8-0	0.692	0.385	0.308
2012	rav	9-4-0	5-7-1	0.692	0.423	0.269
2008	den	8-5-0	4-8-1	0.615	0.346	0.269
2008	clt	9-4-0	5-7-1	0.692	0.423	0.269
2006	sea	8-5-0	4-8-1	0.615	0.346	0.269
2001	ram	11-2-0	7-5-1	0.846	0.577	0.269
2000	ram	8-5-0	4-8-1	0.615	0.346	0.269
1999	min	7-6-0	3-9-1	0.538	0.269	0.269
1984	rai	9-4-0	5-7-1	0.692	0.423	0.269
1978	oti	9-4-0	5-7-1	0.692	0.423	0.269
2012	htx	11-2-0	8-5-0	0.846	0.615	0.231
2011	nwe	10-3-0	7-6-0	0.769	0.538	0.231
2010	phi	9-4-0	6-7-0	0.692	0.462	0.231
2009	sdg	10-3-0	7-6-0	0.769	0.538	0.231
2009	cin	9-4-0	6-7-0	0.692	0.462	0.231
2008	pit	10-3-0	7-6-0	0.769	0.538	0.231
2008	min	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
2007	dal	12-1-0	9-4-0	0.923	0.692	0.231
2007	clt	11-2-0	8-5-0	0.846	0.615	0.231
2007	nwe	13-0-0	10-3-0	1	0.769	0.231
2006	clt	10-3-0	7-6-0	0.769	0.538	0.231
2006	den	7-6-0	4-9-0	0.538	0.308	0.231
2006	sdg	11-2-0	8-5-0	0.846	0.615	0.231
2005	clt	13-0-0	10-3-0	1	0.769	0.231
2004	phi	12-1-0	9-4-0	0.923	0.692	0.231
2004	pit	12-1-0	9-4-0	0.923	0.692	0.231
2003	car	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
2003	kan	11-2-0	8-5-0	0.846	0.615	0.231
2002	clt	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
2002	nwe	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
2001	sfo	10-3-0	7-6-0	0.769	0.538	0.231
2000	min	11-2-0	8-5-0	0.846	0.615	0.231
1999	oti	10-3-0	6-5-2	0.769	0.538	0.231
1999	sea	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
1998	min	12-1-0	9-4-0	0.923	0.692	0.231
1997	nwe	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
1997	den	11-2-0	8-5-0	0.846	0.615	0.231
1996	sfo	10-3-0	7-6-0	0.769	0.538	0.231
1996	gnb	10-3-0	7-6-0	0.769	0.538	0.231
1996	nwe	9-4-0	6-7-0	0.692	0.462	0.231
1996	kan	9-4-0	6-7-0	0.692	0.462	0.231
1995	kan	11-2-0	8-5-0	0.846	0.615	0.231
1995	chi	7-6-0	4-9-0	0.538	0.308	0.231
1995	sfo	9-4-0	6-7-0	0.692	0.462	0.231
1994	min	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
1994	dal	11-2-0	8-5-0	0.846	0.615	0.231
1993	buf	9-4-0	6-7-0	0.692	0.462	0.231
1993	mia	9-4-0	6-7-0	0.692	0.462	0.231
1992	was	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
1992	mia	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
1992	dal	11-2-0	8-5-0	0.846	0.615	0.231
1992	min	9-4-0	6-7-0	0.692	0.462	0.231
1991	kan	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
1991	nyg	7-6-0	4-9-0	0.538	0.308	0.231
1988	nyg	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
1988	was	6-7-0	3-10-0	0.462	0.231	0.231
1988	clt	7-6-0	4-9-0	0.538	0.308	0.231
1986	cin	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
1984	mia	12-1-0	9-4-0	0.923	0.692	0.231
1984	nyg	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
1983	dal	11-2-0	8-5-0	0.846	0.615	0.231
1981	dal	10-3-0	7-6-0	0.769	0.538	0.231
1981	buf	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231
1980	oti	8-5-0	4-7-2	0.615	0.385	0.231
1980	sdg	9-4-0	6-7-0	0.692	0.462	0.231
1979	sdg	10-3-0	6-5-2	0.769	0.538	0.231
1979	pit	10-3-0	7-6-0	0.769	0.538	0.231
1978	rai	8-5-0	5-8-0	0.615	0.385	0.231

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