≡ Menu

The Jets beat the Browns 24-13 today, bringing New York’s record up to 7-8. With Rex Ryan on the hot seat — more on this in a few hours — some have defended the controversial head coach by lauding his work this season. After all, if the Jets are one of the least talented teams in the NFL, isn’t it the product of great coaching that the Jets got to 7-8?

That would be true if the Jets were playing like a 7-8 team. But that’s not the case. The Jets have been outscored by 110 points this year, which makes them a bottom five team, a level of production more in line with the team’s talent. If Ryan is getting bottom five production out of a team that’s bottom five in talent, well, that’s not nearly as impressive.

But perhaps you want to argue that the Jets have overachieved in record (but not anywhere else) because of Ryan? Let’s investigate that claim. New York has just 4.45 Pythagorean wins, which means that they’ve won 2.55 more games than expected. The table below shows the 24 teams to exceed their Pythagorean record [1]Among teams in 16-game seasons by at least two wins while posting a negative points differential.

YearTmRecordPFPAPtDifExp WinDiffCoachQB
1992IND8-7195285-904.153.85Ted MarchibrodaJeff George
2012IND10-5329371-426.373.63Chuck PaganoAndrew Luck
1995PHI10-5304318-147.072.93Ray RhodesRodney Peete
1989PIT8-7234304-705.12.9Chuck NollBubby Brister
1978ATL9-6219248-296.332.67Leeman BennettSteve Bartkowski
2009OAK5-10184358-1742.352.65Tom CableJaMarcus Russell
2011KAN6-9205335-1303.362.64Todd Haley [2]Romeo Crennel coached the final three games of the season.Matt Cassel
1989HOU9-6345388-436.392.61Jerry GlanvilleWarren Moon
2011DEN8-7306383-775.432.57John FoxTim Tebow
2013NYJ7-8270380-1104.452.55Rex RyanGeno Smith
2007BUF7-8243337-944.562.44Dick JauronTrent Edwards
1998OAK8-7264325-615.572.43Jon GrudenDonald Hollas
2005MIN8-7272334-625.592.41Mike TiceBrad Johnson
1994CHI9-6268294-266.632.37Dave WannstedtSteve Walsh
1985WAS9-6270296-266.632.37Joe GibbsJoe Theismann
1988NWE9-6240263-236.642.36Raymond BerryDoug Flutie
1993RAI9-6273296-236.742.26Art ShellJeff Hostetler
2006TEN8-7301360-595.832.17Jeff FisherVince Young
1978BAL5-10225400-1752.842.16Ted MarchibrodaBill Troup
1983BUF8-7269320-515.882.12Kay StephensonJoe Ferguson
2011OAK8-7333395-625.92.1Hue JacksonCarson Palmer
1992DEN8-7242287-455.912.09Dan ReevesJohn Elway
1999ARI6-9221333-1123.932.07Vince TobinJake Plummer
1998ARI8-7309365-565.942.06Vince TobinJake Plummer

The standard-bearers of overachieving excellence are Ted Marchibroda and Jeff George on the 1992 Colts.  In recent years, we have seen Hue Jackson and Tom Cable and Dick Jauron and Mike Tice overachieve relative to expectations.  If the reason to keep Ryan on board is because he has milked 7 wins out of this roster, the preceding sentence should provide the necessary cold water on that idea.

Here’s the less math-nerdy version. If not for a Lavonte David push in the opening game, a Nick Folk game-winner in Atlanta, and a favorable penalty call in overtime against New England, the Jets could be 4-11. Ryan wouldn’t have done any worse of a coaching job to get them to that point, either.

References

References
1 Among teams in 16-game seasons
2 Romeo Crennel coached the final three games of the season.
{ 17 comments }