Yards per Completion – FootballPerspective.com

Completion Percentage, Yards per Completion, And Pareto Efficiency

Chase Stuart — Tue, 10 Jul 2018 13:29:38 +0000

A couple of months ago, I asked this question on Twitter:

Trivia: Among QBs who have completed at least 60% of their passes, who has the highest career average in yards per completion?

— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) May 21, 2018

Do you know the answer? I’ll give you a couple of moments to think about it. First, a graph showing the 200 players with the most pass attempts in NFL history (all have at least 1,325 attempts). On the X-Axis is completion percentage; on the Y-Axis is Yards per Completion. There are no era adjustments here, which can also make it kind of fun: over time, completion percentages have skyrocketed, while the average yardage gained per completion has decreased. As a result, a player with a very high yards per completion percentage almost certainly played long ago, and therefore has a low completion percentage (and vice versa). Take a look:

In this graph, I have put nine of the data points in red. Those points are the Pareto Efficient quarterbacks: there is not even one passer in NFL history who has both a better completion percentage and a better yards/completion average than those players. Who are they?

Let’s start from the top. Ed Brown played for the Bears in the ’50s and the Steelers in the ’60s. He led the NFL in yards per completion in ’56 and also ’63, and had other sky-high yards per completion seasons (like 1960) where he failed to have enough pass attempts to qualify for the crown. Brown retired in 1965 as the career leader in yards per completion at 16.4; he remains the career leader, and it’s never going to change. Steve Beuerlein (12.7 yards per completion) has the highest career Y/C average among players who were active in the 21st century; Cam Newton (12.5) and Jameis Winston (12.4) are highest among active players, but nobody is ever going to knock Brown out of the record books. As a result of being the career leader in yards per completion, he will be Pareto Efficient regardless of his completion percentage. That said, he had a pretty bad completion percentage even for his era: his first three years in the NFL he had a great completion percentage teaming with Harlon Hill, but for the rest of his career his completion percentage was pretty ugly.

After Brown we get a stretch of Hall of Fame passers. Another Bears quarterback, Sid Luckman, is second all-time in yards per completion at 16.2, and his 51.8% completion percentage was better than Brown’s 47.8%. Third on the all-time Y/C list at 16.1 is Browns great Otto Graham (AAFL stats included), and he (55.8%) had a better completion percentage than Luckman.

We have to drop about 30 spots on the yards/completion list to get to another quarterback with a better completion percentage than Graham. That man was Packers legend Bart Starr, who completed 57.4% of his passes and averaged 13.7 yards per completion.

Next up is Chargers icon Dan Fouts, who averaged an even 13 yards per completion but at a 58.8% clip. Fouts is remembered as a quantity guy and a deep thrower, and he currently sits 62nd on the career completion percentage list. But when he retired in 1987, he ranked 7th on the career completion percentage leaderboard, including behind two guys who entered the league in 1983.

Now, do you remember the trivia question at the top of the post? Next on the Pareto Efficiency list is our first entrant with a completion percentage north of sixty. He completed 60.6% of his passes and still averaged 12.6 yards per completion. Even at the 1,000 attempt mark, he is the only player in NFL history to complete at least 60% of his passes and average 12.5 yards per completion. That man is Trent Green, who spent the bulk of his career with the Chiefs. In Kansas City, Green completed 61.9% of his passes and averaged 12.48 yards per completion; outside of KC, he completed 56.7% of his passes and averaged 12.85 yards per completion, with his time with the Rams being his most productive. Green may not have been as good as his numbers indicated, but he does stand out in this list of Hall of Famers.

Up next is another all-time great in Steve Young – he averaged 12.42 yards per completion, but where Young really stands out is his 64.3% completion rate. Twenty years ago, Young was the clear king of this stat, but he has now dropped to 9th on the list.

After Young is Kurt Warner, who is third on the career completion percentage list at 65.5%. Despite that, Warner has a still impressive 12.1 yards per completion average; he, of course, like Green, played on talent rich teams which boosts his career rate stats. But with a 7.95 yards/attempt average, Warner ranks fifth (behind Graham (8.98), Luckman (8.42), Van Brocklin (8.16), and Young (7.98)) on the career Y/A list.

Finally, the last name on the list is the bookend to Ed Brown: by virtue of being the career leader in completion percentage, Drew Brees has to be Pareto Efficient. Brees has a very low (by historical standards) 11.3 yards per completion average, which makes him a true counter to Brown.

And that’s it: those are the 9 men in NFL history who have such a good completion percentage and/or yards/completion average, that no player in history was better at them in both categories.

Steve Grogan is the Yards Per Completion King

Chase Stuart — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 04:01:09 +0000

In 2013, the average completion went for 11.63 yards. That’s a pretty low number historically, although it’s actually a bit higher than some of the recent NFL seasons. Take a look at how Yards per Completion has generally been declining throughout NFL history:

If you want to discuss the quarterbacks who excelled in this metric, controlling for era is crucial. One simple way to measure the best passers when it comes to YPC is to measure how they fare in this metric relative to league average, and multiply that difference by the player’s number of attempts. For example, Nick Foles averaged 14.2 YPC last year, which was 2.6 YPC above average. Over the course of his 317 pass attempts, we could say he provided 529 yards above the average completion. That was the highest in the NFL last year, while Matt Ryan produced the lowest average.

Rk	Quarterback	Tm	Cmp	Yds	YPC	YdOvExp
1	Nick Foles	phi	203	2891	14.24	529
2	Colin Kaepernick	sfo	243	3197	13.16	370
3	Russell Wilson	sea	257	3357	13.06	367
4	Matthew Stafford	det	371	4650	12.53	333
5	Michael Vick	phi	77	1215	15.78	319
6	Aaron Rodgers	gnb	193	2536	13.14	290
7	Peyton Manning	den	450	5477	12.17	241
8	Matt McGloin	rai	118	1547	13.11	174
9	Geno Smith	nyj	247	3046	12.33	172
10	Case Keenum	htx	137	1760	12.85	166
11	Eli Manning	nyg	317	3818	12.04	130
12	Josh McCown	chi	149	1829	12.28	95
13	Brandon Weeden	cle	141	1731	12.28	90
14	Philip Rivers	sdg	378	4478	11.85	80
15	Andy Dalton	cin	363	4293	11.83	69
16	Carson Palmer	crd	362	4274	11.81	62
17	Josh Freeman	2tm	63	761	12.08	28
18	Matt Cassel	min	153	1807	11.81	27
19	Kellen Clemens	ram	142	1673	11.78	21
20	Robert Griffin III	was	274	3203	11.69	15
21	Jay Cutler	chi	224	2621	11.7	15
22	Thaddeus Lewis	buf	93	1092	11.74	10
23	Terrelle Pryor	rai	156	1798	11.53	-17
24	Cam Newton	car	292	3379	11.57	-19
25	Drew Brees	nor	446	5162	11.57	-27
26	Jake Locker	oti	111	1256	11.32	-36
27	Matt Flynn	2tm	124	1392	11.23	-51
28	Ryan Fitzpatrick	oti	217	2454	11.31	-71
29	Tom Brady	nwe	380	4343	11.43	-78
30	Jason Campbell	cle	180	2015	11.19	-79
31	Kirk Cousins	was	81	854	10.54	-88
32	Ben Roethlisberger	pit	375	4261	11.36	-102
33	Christian Ponder	min	152	1648	10.84	-121
34	EJ Manuel	buf	180	1972	10.96	-122
35	Tony Romo	dal	342	3828	11.19	-151
36	Sam Bradford	ram	159	1687	10.61	-163
37	Andrew Luck	clt	343	3822	11.14	-169
38	Ryan Tannehill	mia	355	3913	11.02	-218
39	Matt Schaub	htx	219	2310	10.55	-238
40	Mike Glennon	tam	247	2608	10.56	-266
41	Alex Smith	kan	308	3313	10.76	-271
42	Joe Flacco	rav	362	3912	10.81	-300
43	Chad Henne	jax	305	3241	10.63	-308
44	Matt Ryan	atl	439	4515	10.28	-593

Yards per completion is not as much about ability or talent as it is about style. One can be very good when it comes to yards per completion but be a bad quarterback (Matt McGloin!), or a passer could have a very low yards per completion average but still be very good (Matt Ryan!). But that doesn’t mean it isn’t fun to occasionally focus on a passer’s style rather than his effectiveness.

I used that same formula to create a list of the quarterbacks who produced the most yards over expectation — based on their number of completions and the league average yards per completion rate — over the course of their careers. The top name on the list is Steve Grogan, who easily takes the crown of YPC king. Rounding out the top five: Jay Schroeder, Joe Namath, Ben Roethlisberger, and Trent Green. The table below lists the 100 quarterbacks with the most yards over expectation (based purely on completions and league average YPC rates) since 1950:

Rk	QB	First Yr	Last Yr	Att	Yards Ov Avg Cmp	YOAC/Att
1	Steve Grogan	1975	1990	3593	3069	0.85
2	Jay Schroeder	1985	1994	2808	2435	0.87
3	Joe Namath	1965	1977	3762	2420	0.64
4	Ben Roethlisberger	2004	2013	4346	2330	0.54
5	Trent Green	1997	2008	3740	2323	0.62
6	Terry Bradshaw	1970	1983	3901	2146	0.55
7	Ed Brown	1954	1965	1987	1996	1
8	Philip Rivers	2004	2013	4108	1799	0.44
9	Michael Vick	2001	2013	3030	1778	0.59
10	Kurt Warner	1998	2009	4070	1708	0.42
11	Daryle Lamonica	1963	1974	2601	1675	0.64
12	Aaron Rodgers	2005	2013	2955	1642	0.56
13	John Hadl	1962	1977	4687	1640	0.35
14	Boomer Esiason	1984	1997	5205	1620	0.31
15	Steve Beuerlein	1988	2003	3328	1614	0.48
16	Gus Frerotte	1994	2008	3106	1611	0.52
17	Eli Manning	2004	2013	5008	1536	0.31
18	Earl Morrall	1956	1976	2689	1465	0.54
19	Craig Morton	1965	1982	3786	1402	0.37
20	Tony Romo	2006	2013	3775	1396	0.37
21	Dan Fouts	1973	1987	5604	1309	0.23
22	Doug Williams	1978	1989	2507	1303	0.52
23	Norm Van Brocklin	1950	1960	2837	1288	0.45
24	Roger Staubach	1969	1979	2958	1278	0.43
25	Steve Young	1985	1999	4149	1261	0.3
26	Jim Hart	1966	1984	5076	1239	0.24
27	Bobby Layne	1950	1962	3349	1238	0.37
28	Lynn Dickey	1971	1985	3125	1227	0.39
29	Jim Plunkett	1971	1986	3701	1206	0.33
30	Vinny Testaverde	1987	2007	6701	1187	0.18
31	Phil Simms	1979	1993	4647	1167	0.25
32	John Elway	1983	1998	7250	1155	0.16
33	Peyton Manning	1998	2013	8452	1146	0.14
34	Otto Graham	1950	1955	1565	1087	0.69
35	Aaron Brooks	2000	2006	2963	1076	0.36
36	Tom Brady	2000	2013	6586	1038	0.16
37	Bill Nelsen	1963	1972	1905	1034	0.54
38	Daunte Culpepper	2000	2009	3199	1024	0.32
39	Chris Chandler	1988	2004	4005	1009	0.25
40	Jake Delhomme	1999	2011	2932	975	0.33
41	Mike Tomczak	1985	1999	2337	952	0.41
42	Jack Kemp	1957	1969	3073	946	0.31
43	Cam Newton	2011	2013	1475	933	0.63
44	Donovan McNabb	1999	2011	5374	878	0.16
45	Warren Moon	1984	2000	6823	804	0.12
46	Cotton Davidson	1954	1968	1752	789	0.45
47	Matt Schaub	2004	2013	3181	774	0.24
48	Doug Flutie	1986	2005	2151	769	0.36
49	Vince Evans	1978	1995	1390	757	0.54
50	Craig Erickson	1992	1997	1092	756	0.69
51	Lamar McHan	1954	1963	1442	711	0.49
52	Jay Cutler	2006	2013	3310	695	0.21
53	Charley Johnson	1961	1975	3392	693	0.2
54	Mark Rypien	1988	2001	2613	651	0.25
55	Babe Parilli	1952	1969	3330	644	0.19
56	Don Meredith	1960	1968	2308	610	0.26
57	Colin Kaepernick	2011	2013	639	601	0.94
58	Marc Wilson	1980	1990	2081	598	0.29
59	Kerry Collins	1995	2011	6261	596	0.1
60	Steve Ramsey	1970	1976	921	581	0.63
61	Frank Ryan	1958	1970	2133	579	0.27
62	Derek Anderson	2006	2012	1440	569	0.39
63	Jim Kelly	1986	1996	4779	559	0.12
64	Russell Wilson	2012	2013	800	555	0.69
65	Eddie LeBaron	1952	1963	1796	553	0.31
66	Steve Tensi	1966	1970	862	517	0.6
67	Tom Tracy	1958	1963	67	511	7.62
68	Ron Jaworski	1974	1989	4117	490	0.12
69	Jeff Blake	1992	2005	3241	482	0.15
70	Dan Marino	1983	1999	8358	474	0.06
71	Scott Mitchell	1992	2001	2346	474	0.2
72	Charlie Batch	1998	2012	1604	464	0.29
73	Jeff Hostetler	1988	1997	2338	462	0.2
74	Matt Cavanaugh	1979	1989	579	460	0.79
75	Jack Scarbath	1953	1956	279	453	1.63
76	Matt Robinson	1977	1982	523	444	0.85
77	Scott Hunter	1971	1979	748	427	0.57
78	Rodney Peete	1989	2004	2346	420	0.18
79	Greg Cook	1969	1973	200	417	2.09
80	Bob Berry	1965	1975	1173	417	0.36
81	Bill Kenney	1980	1988	2430	414	0.17
82	James Harris	1969	1979	1149	412	0.36
83	Frank Gifford	1952	1964	63	409	6.49
84	Jeff George	1990	2001	3967	407	0.1
85	Johnny Unitas	1956	1973	5186	397	0.08
86	Jim Everett	1986	1997	4923	391	0.08
87	Jake Plummer	1997	2006	4350	383	0.09
88	Tim Tebow	2010	2012	361	370	1.03
89	Tommy O'Connell	1953	1961	423	364	0.86
90	Stan Humphries	1989	1997	2516	359	0.14
91	Nick Foles	2012	2013	582	356	0.61
92	Joe Geri	1950	1951	203	354	1.75
93	Troy Smith	2007	2010	234	352	1.51
94	Bob Lee	1969	1979	730	350	0.48
95	Bob Celeri	1951	1952	313	348	1.11
96	Marlin Briscoe	1968	1976	233	344	1.48
97	Terry Hanratty	1969	1976	431	341	0.79
98	Pete Beathard	1964	1973	1282	336	0.26
99	Vince Young	2006	2011	1304	331	0.25
100	Warren Rabb	1961	1962	251	318	1.27

What about the quarterbacks with the fewest yards per completion? You might think this list would be dominated by a bunch of checkdown specialists, but by using career completions as part of the numerator, we exclude a lot of lesser passers. That just serves to make the top of this list more interesting, with the perennially underrated John Brodie, the becoming-more-underrated-by-the-week Fran Tarkenton, the original #18 in Denver, Roman Gabriel, and Joe Montana all ranking in the top five.

Rk	QB	First Yr	Last Yr	Att	Yards Ov Avg Cmp	YOAC/Att
1	John Brodie	1957	1973	4491	-2673	-0.6
2	Fran Tarkenton	1961	1978	6467	-2318	-0.36
3	Frank Tripucka	1950	1963	1600	-2268	-1.42
4	Roman Gabriel	1962	1977	4498	-2258	-0.5
5	Joe Montana	1979	1994	5391	-2131	-0.4
6	Y.A. Tittle	1950	1964	3817	-2002	-0.52
7	Brad Johnson	1994	2008	4326	-1776	-0.41
8	Steve DeBerg	1978	1998	5024	-1756	-0.35
9	Archie Manning	1971	1984	3642	-1646	-0.45
10	Joey Harrington	2002	2007	2538	-1564	-0.62
11	Troy Aikman	1989	2000	4715	-1522	-0.32
12	Sonny Jurgensen	1957	1974	4262	-1480	-0.35
13	Bernie Kosar	1985	1996	3365	-1470	-0.44
14	Bill Munson	1964	1979	1982	-1424	-0.72
15	Ken O'Brien	1984	1993	3602	-1384	-0.38
16	Dan Pastorini	1971	1983	3055	-1310	-0.43
17	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2005	2013	2599	-1300	-0.5
18	Jack Concannon	1964	1975	1110	-1268	-1.14
19	Jim Harbaugh	1987	2000	3918	-1194	-0.3
20	Billy Wade	1954	1966	2523	-1146	-0.45
21	Brett Favre	1991	2010	10169	-1143	-0.11
22	Milt Plum	1957	1969	2419	-1128	-0.47
23	David Carr	2002	2012	2267	-1048	-0.46
24	Jon Kitna	1997	2011	4442	-990	-0.22
25	Sam Bradford	2010	2013	1760	-967	-0.55
26	Kyle Boller	2003	2011	1519	-963	-0.63
27	Rich Gannon	1987	2004	4206	-947	-0.23
28	Shane Matthews	1996	2004	839	-940	-1.12
29	Alex Smith	2005	2013	2685	-929	-0.35
30	Brian Sipe	1974	1983	3439	-875	-0.25
31	Steve Spurrier	1967	1976	1151	-865	-0.75
32	Matt Ryan	2008	2013	3288	-846	-0.26
33	Bart Starr	1956	1971	3149	-836	-0.27
34	Ken Anderson	1971	1986	4475	-834	-0.19
35	Chad Pennington	2000	2010	2471	-808	-0.33
36	Mike Phipps	1970	1981	1799	-775	-0.43
37	Steve Walsh	1989	1999	1317	-768	-0.58
38	Ken Stabler	1970	1984	3793	-759	-0.2
39	Tommy Kramer	1977	1990	3651	-734	-0.2
40	Frankie Albert	1950	1952	601	-734	-1.22
41	Brian Griese	1998	2008	2796	-732	-0.26
42	Christian Ponder	2011	2013	1013	-713	-0.7
43	Bobby Hebert	1985	1996	3121	-711	-0.23
44	Danny Kanell	1996	2003	956	-688	-0.72
45	Joe Theismann	1974	1985	3602	-679	-0.19
46	Jim Finks	1950	1955	1311	-668	-0.51
47	Rick Mirer	1993	2003	2043	-661	-0.32
48	Tim Couch	1999	2003	1714	-654	-0.38
49	Kordell Stewart	1995	2003	2358	-651	-0.28
50	Charlie Frye	2005	2009	676	-642	-0.95
51	Jim Miller	1995	2002	1046	-631	-0.6
52	Jason Campbell	2006	2013	2499	-602	-0.24
53	Mike Boryla	1974	1978	519	-600	-1.16
54	Gary Huff	1973	1978	788	-599	-0.76
55	Virgil Carter	1968	1976	785	-594	-0.76
56	Jack Trudeau	1986	1995	1644	-589	-0.36
57	King Hill	1958	1969	881	-588	-0.67
58	Doug Pederson	1993	2004	522	-586	-1.12
59	Charlie Conerly	1950	1961	2229	-579	-0.26
60	Mickey Slaughter	1963	1966	584	-570	-0.98
61	Steve Bono	1985	1999	1701	-569	-0.33
62	Steve Dils	1980	1988	972	-562	-0.58
63	Len Dawson	1957	1975	3741	-562	-0.15
64	Kelly Holcomb	1997	2007	893	-536	-0.6
65	David Klingler	1992	1997	718	-535	-0.74
66	Drew Brees	2001	2013	6799	-532	-0.08
67	Blaine Gabbert	2011	2013	777	-530	-0.68
68	Randy Wright	1984	1988	1119	-525	-0.47
69	Gary Cuozzo	1963	1972	1182	-522	-0.44
70	Chris Weinke	2001	2007	709	-522	-0.74
71	Zeke Bratkowski	1954	1971	1484	-515	-0.35
72	Karl Sweetan	1966	1970	590	-515	-0.87
73	Charlie Trippi	1950	1954	422	-505	-1.2
74	Chad Henne	2008	2013	1876	-498	-0.27
75	Mike Taliaferro	1964	1972	966	-485	-0.5
76	Steve Fuller	1979	1986	1066	-484	-0.45
77	Mark Malone	1981	1989	1648	-483	-0.29
78	Kent Nix	1967	1972	652	-459	-0.7
79	Kelly Stouffer	1988	1992	437	-457	-1.04
80	Chuck Long	1986	1990	607	-456	-0.75
81	Colt McCoy	2010	2013	703	-446	-0.63
82	Rudy Bukich	1953	1968	1190	-442	-0.37
83	Don Majkowski	1987	1996	1905	-437	-0.23
84	Seneca Wallace	2005	2013	788	-436	-0.55
85	Jeff Garcia	1999	2008	3676	-424	-0.12
86	Al Dorow	1954	1962	1207	-424	-0.35
87	Tony Eason	1983	1990	1564	-420	-0.27
88	Oliver Luck	1983	1986	413	-410	-0.99
89	Ken Dorsey	2004	2008	408	-407	-1
90	Dan Darragh	1968	1970	296	-403	-1.36
91	Norm Snead	1961	1976	4353	-401	-0.09
92	Kent Graham	1992	2001	1339	-393	-0.29
93	Greg Landry	1968	1984	2300	-391	-0.17
94	Jim McMahon	1982	1996	2573	-387	-0.15
95	Shaun Hill	2007	2012	954	-385	-0.4
96	Bobby Hoying	1996	2000	456	-383	-0.84
97	Brodie Croyle	2006	2010	319	-373	-1.17
98	Trent Edwards	2007	2012	929	-368	-0.4
99	Matt Cassel	2005	2013	2298	-367	-0.16
100	Randy Johnson	1966	1976	1286	-366	-0.28

However, if you sort this list by “Last Yr”, then you do get a bit of checkdown specialists.