Bill Belichick Found Another Way to Bleed Yards From Opponents

Gostkowski, probably not kicking a touchback

Since the Patriots offense remains incredibly explosive, it’s pretty reasonable that they would be near the top of the league in the total number of kickoffs returned (i.e., opponent kickoff returns). New England has 47 kickoffs this year, or nearly double the number of a struggling offense like the Cleveland Browns (26). But how about this: the Patriots are dramatically ahead of everybody else in the league in the percentage of their kickoffs that are returned.

Since kickoffs were moved from the 30- to the 35-yard-line in 2011, it’s more common than ever to see a kickoff boomed out the back of the endzone. These plays have become so routine it’s basically part of the commercial break now. But not for the Patriots. The Patriots seem to be inviting their opponent to return their kicks.

I went through the kickoff statistics for each team in the league, and discarded any onside kicks, any short kicks in the last 10 seconds of the first half (which are often intentionally squibbed), and any kicks where the just-scored/kicking-off team had been penalized, moving the kickoff to the 30-, 25-, or 20-yard line. The remaining “clean” kickoffs give the best indication of a team’s intentional special teams strategy over time.

This season, most teams have about a third of their kickoffs returned. Only three teams have had over half of their kickoffs returned; the Patriots are alone at over 60%:

What’s interesting about most teams intentionally booming kickoffs near or out of the back of the endzone is that just about every team in the NFL has a very good success rate at stopping the return. Below is a leaderboard of teams sorted by the percentage of total kickoffs, including the many touchbacks, that they allow as a kickoff defense to get to the opponent’s 30-yard-line or further. Note that the Patriots are actually slightly below-average at this:

Looking at the above chart, it’s clear that one size does not fit all with a kickoff strategy. Unlike many conservative approaches in the NFL, being conservative on your kickoffs — that is, asking for a unreturnable touchback — can indeed pay dividends. Many of the teams who allow fewer total returns also rank very well in not giving up big returns. For young and potentially mistake-prone defenses like the 49ers, Jets, and Browns, this is actually probably the optimal strategy.

What Belichick has likely noticed, though, is that just about every kick return defense in the league will stop returners at the 20-yard-line or shorter more often — usually way more often — than they will let the returner to the 30 or beyond. The Patriots are pretty much always at the top of the market for special teams, not just paying Stephen Gostkowski a league-high $4.3M cap dollars per year, but also employing dedicated special teams players like Matt Slater and Nate Ebner. It’s no surprise that they rank a strong second overall — trailing the league’s most surprising kickoff-savvy team — in the percentage of their kickoffs that they stuff at the 20 or sooner:

From everything above, here are the teams I see who are running, in one way or another, a very inefficient kickoff strategy:

• Chargers: Although the Chargers are second overall to the Patriots in the total percentage of their kickoffs that are being returned, Los Angeles is getting burned on long returns more often than any other team. Given the carousel of kickers that Los Angeles has gone through this year, it’s entirely possible that YoungHoe Koo and now Nick Novak do not have the necessary leg strength to push the ball far enough back for touchbacks.

• Ravens: Baltimore has the best stuff rate in the league: only 31.8% of their total kickoffs have been returned, but 20.4% of the total kickoffs have been stopped at the 20 or sooner. Perhaps this is a function of superstar kicker Justin Tucker: no one would be surprised if a huge air-time under Tucker’s kicks is giving the Baltimore defense enough time to run into place. So why are such a low percentage of Tucker’s kicks getting returned? I’m a bit surprised that John Harbaugh, former special teams coach, hasn’t used his team’s strength to his advantage more often.

• Broncos: Denver is the only team in the league who is giving up more big returns (30 or farther) than short returns (20 or closer). Could it be that the thin air that has so helped Broncos field goal kickers over the years comes back to hurt them on kickoffs, with the ball sailing much faster than the defense can keep up with?

Although the Patriots have, in my opinion, the best kickoff strategy in the league, there is a trio of unlikely teams that are excelling with a similar approach:

• Bears: John Fox is scrapping and clawing to win games with an impotent offense however he can — and, to his credit, his winning percentage is much better than you’d expect. Chicago got burned by the incredibly bizarre Bobby Rainey return touchdown against Baltimore, which has decimated any of the team’s conventional full-season kickoff statistics. Credit Fox for trusting the process over fluky results, though: the Bears are still a top-10 team in kickoff return rate.

• Giants: The Giants are virtual copies of the Bears on all three of the charts above. One thing to keep your eye on, though: six of the team’s eight total 20-or-earlier stops came in the first five games of the season, when special teams speed demon Dwayne Harris was healthy.

• Dolphins: If there is one team that is rivaling the Patriots with their kickoff approach, it is, surprisingly, the Dolphins. Behind Cody Parkey, the team is third in return rate, top-10 in preventing big returns (alongside many of the most conservative teams in the league), and first overall in creating short returns. Tough kickoff defense played a huge role in Miami’s first win of the season, a 19-17 victory over the Chargers. With six minutes left in the fourth quarter, Parkey nailed a field goal to cut Los Angeles’ lead to 17-16. He put the ensuing kickoff one yard deep in the endzone, where Austin Ekeler returned it to the 12 — only to have the possession start at the 6-yard-line on a holding penalty. Over the next three minutes, the Chargers could only move the ball 19 yards — bringing the ball to the touchback spot on the 25. Los Angeles had to punt from there, giving Miami an opportunity to start one yard short of midfield. Miami could only move the ball 16 yards but, at that point, they were close enough for Parkey to nail another field goal, giving Miami the 19-17 lead with just a minute left.

Still, New England has kicked the ball off 20 more times than Miami has this season. Even if the Dolphins have the slight edge on the percentages I’ve found here, the Patriots have stopped kickoffs short so many more times. Plus, the strategy is an incredible fit for the 2017 Patriots: with a skilled special teams but a flailing defense, New England needs to create longer fields for their defense as often as possible. Patriots opponents start their average drive at their own 24, the farthest from the end zone of any defense in the NFL.

Four of the Patriots’ six victories have been by single digits, and a sharp kickoff has played a role in every single one of those victories.

• Week 3 v. Texans: With four minutes left in the first half, Houston can only return a kickoff to the 16-yard-line. The Texans are unable to move out of their own territory and punt the ball back to New England with one minute left. This gives Tom Brady enough time to take two deep shots at the end zone, although neither of them come through.

• Week 5 v. Buccaneers: With 40 seconds left in the first half, a kickoff forces the Buccaneers to start from their 22. As time expires, Nick Folk is forced to attempt a 56-yard field goal — which he misses. Since 2000, kickers are 54.1% on just 61 total attempts from 56 yards. If the possession had started with a touchback, shifting the Buccaneers three yards up, all kickers are 62.6% on 329 attempts from 53 yards.

• Week 6 v. Jets: In the third quarter, New England up 21-14, the Jets are forced to start a possession on their own 14, an 11-yard hole compared to a touchback. After a six-minute drive, New York faces 4th-and-1 on the New England 34 — just on the edge of field goal range. The Jets go for it, but Devin McCourty intercepts the ball.

• Week 8 v. Chargers: Los Angeles can only return the game-opening kickoff to the 20. After a six-minute drive, Nick Novak misses a 51-yard field goal.

Are these stuffed kickoff returns relatively small factors in 60-minute wins that required every ounce of effort from all facets of the team? You bet. The thing is, the Patriots have kept not just their playoff hopes but their first-round-bye hopes alive with this string of razor-thin-margin victories. Although one-possession games in the NFL are famously subject to the winds of randomness, one can’t help but feel like Belichick and Adams built all these wins, brick by brick. And one of those foundational bricks? Relying on Gostowski to plop those kickoffs just a yard or two or three into the endzone, convincing that adrenaline-jacked return man to bring the ball out — right into the waiting arms of the defense.

All stats via Pro Football Reference and accurate as of games played on Week 9.

At the time, Morten Andersen was the career leader with 35, while Adam Vinatieri was hot on his trails with 30. Well, Vinatieri didn’t have a single game-winning field goal after the third quarter of any game in 2013 or 2014, but he then did it three times in two months last year (against Jacksonville in overtime from 27 yards, a 55-yarder against the Broncos with 6 minutes left, and a 43-yarder in the final minute against Atlanta.

Of his 33 game-winning field goals, 16 have been from 40+ yards away, with five of those being from 50+ yards, while his average game-winning field goal has come from 37.1 yards:

As you’ll see tomorrow, the main takeaway here may just be that Vinatieri has been around for a really, really long time. He’s 3rd all-time in career field goal attempts, and certainly could retire as the all-time leader in both that category and points (perhaps as soon as the end of the 2018 season). But he’s still far behind Nick Lowery when it comes to being the greatest field goal kicker of all time.