In the first six weeks, the Raiders get the Jets, Ravens, and Chargers at home, along with road games against the Titans, Redskins, and Broncos. Oakland should be able to get off to a 4-2 or 5-1 start against that schedule. The Patriots game comes in week 11 (and it’s a “home” game in Mexico City), but it’s the final four weeks that are scary: Oakland goes to Kansas City and hosts Dallas (on SNF) in weeks 14 and 15, before finishing with road games in Philadelphia (on Monday Night Football) and against the Chargers. A 2-2 mark would be more than holding serve.

Kansas City opens in New England on Thursday night, as tough a game as there is on any schedule. And nearly all the “easy” games for Kansas City come in the final six weeks. The Chiefs host Buffalo at the end of November and face the Jets the following week. The last four games are three home games — the Raiders, Chargers (on Saturday night), and Dolphins — and the final game is in Denver. Kansas City can realistic hope for a 5-1 finish to streak into the playoffs, so the Chiefs just need to get to 5-5 through ten games.

A similar disparity exists in the AFC South: all of those teams have easy schedules (more on this below). But one team with a very favorable early season schedule is the Colts, who… just might need it given the uncertain health status of Andrew Luck. The Colts open up with a road game against the Rams, followed by home games against Arizona and Cleveland. Indianapolis also hosts the 49ers and Jaguars in the team’s first seven games. The Titans have the second easiest schedule in the league, but it’s also really easy late. Tennessee’s December slate? Home for Houston, at Arizona, at San Francisco, home for the Rams, and home for the Jaguars. The Titans are in position to ride a late-season winning streak into the playoffs.

I went ahead and created my own team ratings. You may disagree with them slightly, but the only reason I generated them was to generate SOS ratings. So even if you disagree with some of the ratings, it shouldn’t impact each team’s SOS that much. The ratings below represent how many points each team would beat an average NFL team by on a neutral field.

And here are the SOS ratings for each team. The fourth column, titled ‘Wtd SOS’, shows a weighted SOS with an emphasis on early games. The “Diff” column shows the difference between the actual SOS and the weighted SOS, while the “Hard Early” Rk shows the rank of those differences. Let’s use the Chiefs as an example. Kansas City has the 2nd toughest SOS this year, behind Denver, as the average opponent for Kansas City is +0.9 points above average. The weighted SOS, though, is +1.8, and the difference between the two is +0.9. That difference is the 2nd largest among all teams behind only the Titans (who are tied for the easiest schedule). So the takeaway: Tennessee’s schedule is super easy, but to the extent it’s difficult, it’s difficult early. The Raiders have the 4th toughest schedule, but the most backloaded schedule (in terms of tough games) in the NFL.

Finally, let’s close with each team’s schedule and their opponent’s rating (adjusted for HFA).

What stands out to you? I’ll also note that while the Jets have the 3rd toughest schedule overall, it’s also the 3rd most lopsided in favor of easy games early. In the first five weeks, the Jets play Buffalo and Cleveland on the road, and the Dolphins and Jaguars at home. So we should know early if the Jets are your run of the mill bad team, or a historically bad one.

The good news? For the rest of the season, the Jets have the 21st toughest schedule in the league, and no team has an easier dropoff in schedule than New York. This was predictable — in fact, I wrote just that for 538 in the offseason.

On the flip side, we have the Seahawks. Here’s how to read the table below, using Seattle. They are ranked 32nd, because no team’s schedule gets more difficult. Seattle’s through week 6 SOS — the TW6 SOS column — is -3.06, meaning its average opponent was about three points worse than average. That’s been the 31st toughest (or 2nd easiest) slate in the league. Meanwhile, Seattle’s rest of year SOS — marked as ROY SOS — is +2.13, the 3rd toughest left in football. That’s a difference of -5.19 (i.e., negative is bad, because the schedule is now harder).

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments. Note that Philadelphia and Washington have the two toughest rest of year schedules, but it’s not much easier for the rest of the NFC East: the Cowboys have the 4th-toughest, and the Giants have the 7th-hardest.