Each NFL team generates about 201 points of Approximate Value per season, or 6,440 points of AV per season in the 32-team era. I ran a linear regression using team AV as the input and wins as the output, which produced a formula of

Team Wins = -9.63 + 0.0876*AV

This means that adding one point of AV to a team is expected to result in 0.0876 additional wins. In other words, for a 201-AV team to jump from 8 to 9 wins, they need to produce 11.4 additional points of AV.

A player who can deliver 11.4 marginal points of AV is therefore worth one win to a team, or 14.6 million marginal salary cap dollars (or whatever number you choose). Alternatively, you can think of it like this: a player who is worth $1.277M marginal dollars should be expected to produce 1 additional point of AV and 0.0876 additional wins. In case the math made you lose the forest for the trees, this is all a reflection of the amount of wins we decide the replacement team is worth, as the formula is circular: if a team spends all of its $72.877M marginal dollars, they should get 57.07 marginal points of AV, or 5 extra wins, the amount needed to make a replacement team equal to an average team.

Next we need to focus just on Veterans, defined as players in their fourth year or later. The table below shows how much AV is provided by all players in the NFL by year, as a percentage of league-wide AV. The right column shows the amount of cumulative AV provided by all players that year and younger:

Players in their first three seasons provide over one-third of the average team’s value, while nearly half of a team’s AV comes from players in their first four seasons. In 2012, for example, Veterans produced 3958 points of AV. Since we have theorized that all Veterans produce a total of 160 marginal wins, or 5 marginal wins per team, you might think we just want to divide 3958 by 160, but that’s not exactly right because it ignores the concept of marginal AV. Doing so would suggest that one win was worth 24.7 points of AV, and we just determined that one win was worth slightly fewer than half as many points of AV.

This makes sense — a player with one or two points of AV isn’t really doing much, and certainly isn’t doing much that isn’t easily replaceable. What we need to do is subtract a certain number of points from each player to reduce the total pile of points of AV from Veterans from 3958 to 1824 (11.4 * 160). I’ll spare you the complicated math, but that number turns out to be 3.36 points of AV from each player in 2012. What this means is that every Veteran with 3 or fewer points of AV is therefore worth $850K salary cap dollars (our average Veterans minimum). For Veterans with 4 or more points of AV, we subtract 3.36 points of AV to figure out their amount of marginal AV provided, and multiply that number by $1.277M to give us the amount of marginal salary cap dollars they were worth. Add $850K to that number, and you get that player’s salary cap dollar value for 2013 assuming they produce exactly as they did in 2012. I have included a list of the top 100 or so Veterans at the bottom of this post.

But first, let’s take a step back and remember how AV was created. There are many situations, including this one, where we need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and analytics folks have done so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat existed prior to Doug’s creation of AV. In most cases, people used “starter” or “number of years as a starter” or “number of pro bowls” as the metric when they had to compare across positions.

AV was intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in the NFL are. So I should not Not NOT rank all the players in the NFL according to AV, translate those AV values into salaries, and present them in a list. To do so would be to imply that I’ve done something I haven’t done. To do so would be to invite links from team message boards where the first post is “some guy posted a list saying Charles Tillman is worth Seventeen Million Dollars!” and the second post is “I stopped reading as soon as I saw Cameron Wake ranked ahead of Aaron Rodgers. What a bozo!”

I now present to you a list of the amount of Salary Cap Dollars that the top Veterans are worth based on their performance last season:

Name	                Team	Pos	AV	MarAV	Wins	Salary (in millions)
Adrian Peterson	        MIN	RB	19	15.64	1.37	$20.82
Tom Brady	        NWE	QB	18	14.64	1.28	$19.55
Julius Peppers	        CHI	RE	18	14.64	1.28	$19.55
Matt Ryan	        ATL	QB	18	14.64	1.28	$19.55
Cameron Wake	        MIA	RDE	18	14.64	1.28	$19.55
Aaron Rodgers	        GNB	QB	17	13.64	1.20	$18.27
Charles Tillman	        CHI	RCB	16	12.64	1.11	$16.99
Vince Wilfork	        NWE	DT	16	12.64	1.11	$16.99
Peyton Manning	        DEN	QB	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72
Drew Brees	        NOR	QB	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72
Eli Manning	        NYG	QB	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72
Wes Welker	        NWE	WR	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72
Marshawn Lynch	        SEA	RB	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72
Patrick Willis	        SFO	ILB	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72

NOTE FOR PEOPLE WHO SKIPPED STRAIGHT DOWN TO THE LIST WITHOUT READING THE POST: the author who generated this list does not agree with the entirety of this list. He, in fact, acknowledges that it’s obviously wrong in spots. He does think it’s pretty respectable, given the difficulty of comparing players across positions using only objective data without just saying that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are worth 10 wins each. He also thinks it’ll give us something to talk about here in April.

We now return to the list.

Name	                Team	Pos	AV	MarAV	Wins	Salary (in millions)
Andre Johnson	        HOU	WR	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Tony Romo	        DAL	QB	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Roddy White	        ATL	WR	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Brandon Marshall	CHI	WR	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Jahri Evans	        NOR	RG	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Calvin Johnson	        DET	WR	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Ryan Clady	        DEN	LT	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Max Unger	        SEA	C	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Champ Bailey	        DEN	LCB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Tim Jennings	        CHI	LCB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Haloti Ngata	        BAL	DT	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Joe Flacco	        BAL	QB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Ray Rice	        BAL	RB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Josh Freeman	        TAM	QB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Tony Gonzalez	        ATL	TE	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
London Fletcher	        WAS	MLB	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Justin Smith	        SFO	RDE	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Matt Schaub	        HOU	QB	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Vincent Jackson	        TAM	WR	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Eric Weddle	        SDG	FS	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Ahmad Brooks	        SFO	OLB	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Chad Greenway	        MIN	OLB	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Elvis Dumervil	        DEN	RDE	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Joe Staley	        SFO	LT	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Ed Reed	                BAL	FS	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Lance Briggs	        CHI	OLB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
DeMarcus Ware	        DAL	ROLB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Jay Cutler	        CHI	QB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Ahmad Bradshaw	        NYG	RB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Lawrence Timmons	PIT	RILB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Dashon Goldson	        SFO	FS	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Joe Thomas	        CLE	LT	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Jerod Mayo	        NWE	ILB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Duane Brown	        HOU	LT	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Clay Matthews	        GNB	ROLB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Reggie Wayne	        IND	WR	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Steve Smith	        CAR	WR	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Paris Lenon	        ARI	ILB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Larry Foote	        PIT	LILB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Brandon Lloyd	        NWE	WR	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Jason Witten	        DAL	TE	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Philip Rivers	        SDG	QB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Carson Palmer	        OAK	QB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Jared Allen	        MIN	RDE	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Chris Snee	        NYG	RG	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	QB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Frank Gore	        SFO	RB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Chris Clemons	        SEA	RDE	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Marques Colston	        NOR	WR	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Johnathan Joseph	HOU	RCB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Antonio Cromartie	NYJ	CB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Brandon Mebane	        SEA	RDT	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Matt Forte	        CHI	RB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Martellus Bennett	NYG	TE	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Arian Foster	        HOU	RB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Jairus Byrd	        BUF	FS	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Michael Crabtree	SFO	WR	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Sebastian Vollmer	NWE	RT	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Jeff Saturday	        GNB	C	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
John Abraham	        ATL	RDE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Ryan Clark	        PIT	FS	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Brett Keisel	        PIT	DE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Anquan Boldin	        BAL	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Karlos Dansby	        MIA	MLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Jonathan Babineaux	ATL	DT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Kevin Burnett	        MIA	LOLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Derrick Johnson	        KAN	RILB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Heath Miller	        PIT	TE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Logan Mankins	        NWE	LG	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Lance Moore	        NOR	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Andrew Whitworth	CIN	LT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
D'Qwell Jackson	        CLE	MLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
LaRon Landry	        NYJ	S	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Stephen Nicholas	ATL	OLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Nick Roach	        CHI	OLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
David Harris	        NYJ	ILB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Alan Branch	        SEA	LDT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Greg Olsen	        CAR	TE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Sidney Rice	        SEA	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Marshall Yanda	        BAL	RG	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Jermon Bushrod	        NOR	LT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Chris Johnson	        TEN	RB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Jamaal Charles	        KAN	RB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Steve Johnson	        BUF	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Jermichael Finley	GNB	TE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Jo-Lonn Dunbar	        STL	OLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Wesley Woodyard	        DEN	OLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Sam Baker	        ATL	LT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Tyler Polumbus	        WAS	RT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Percy Harvin	        MIN	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Brian Hartline	        MIA	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
James Laurinaitis	STL	MLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Michael Johnson	        CIN	RDE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Evander Hood	        PIT	DE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Ryan Wendell	        NWE	C	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
William Beatty	        NYG	T	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06

Let’s start with the basics, which will include many generalities and rough estimates. I have chosen to ignore all players who are in the first three years of their rookie contracts; while we could try to determine the “fair market” cap values for Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and J.J. Watt, that would be nothing more than an academic exercise because their 2013 salary cap figures are set in stone. Instead, my goal is to determine the appropriate salary cap values for NFL Veterans (in this post, “Veterans” means all players with at least three prior years of NFL experience).

Note that ALL of the numbers in this post can be manipulated by each user thanks to the Salary Cap Calculator below. Your opinions regarding my assumptions should not interfere with your use of the salary cap calculator.

The salary cap in 2013 is $123.9M, but because players on injured reserve count against the cap, a buffer is needed to sign healthy players during the season. On average, each team will have placed on their roster 64 different players. Some of those players will be signed during the year and may only be on the team for a few weeks, so they won’t cost a significant percentage of the cap. On the other hand, a couple of players are usually on IR before the season even starts. Let’s assume that teams should spend 96% of their cap dollars on the healthy 53 players on their week 1 roster. The next step is figuring out how many of those salary cap dollars will go to non-Veterans.

Thanks to Overthecap.com, we can determine the percentage of the salary cap allotted to rookies, second-year, and third-year players on their first contracts with the teams that drafted them. For 2013, Jason Fitzgerald (the site’s owner) projects the 256 draft picks to cost the average team $5,617,710 in cap dollars. Based on last year’s draft numbers, the 256 ^[1]To make it apples to apples, I added three extra players at $491,474 cap hits, since there were 253 draft picks in 2012 and 256 in 2013 second-year players from the 2012 draft should count for $6,706,038 per team against the 2013 cap. For third-year players we will need to estimate because the data isn’t easily available. Players drafted in 2011 are projected to make about 2.5% more in 2013 than they did in 2012, so if we take a 2.5% haircut off of the amount Jason projects third-year players to make in 2014 (numbers that are easily-available), we can estimate that third-year players in 2013 will cost about $7,741,296 this year.

The problem with those cap figures is that they assume all 256 draft picks make week 1 rosters, which we know is not true. On the other hand, there are many undrafted rookies, second, and third-year players on extremely cheap deals ($416K is the minimum for 2013 rookies) who will wind up on rosters. So how can we get a more precise picture of how non-Veterans affect the salary cap?

I looked at all rosters from 2004 to 2012. On average, there are about 202 drafted rookies, 166 drafted second-year players, and 136 drafted third-year players on their initial contracts at any one time, a total that represents one-quarter of the players in the league. There are also about 413 undrafted players in their first three years in the league each season, and another 89 players in their first three years that were drafted but now are on new teams (like the other Robert Griffin from Baylor).

So how does that change the analysis from above? Instead of 256 rookies in the NFL costing each team $5.6M, we should project only 202 of the draft picks to make 53-man rosters. Most of the cuts will be limited to late round picks, so the effect won’t be proportional. I’m going to make a gut guess — which you can freely change yourself — and say 87% of the cap dollars will go to those 202 players, enabling us to peg 2013 rookies at $4,887,408 per team.

Again, using nothing more than my a crude estimate — which you can freely change in the calculator below — I’ll put the 166 second-year players at 77% of the salary cap value for all 256 picks, which means $5,163,649 per team. For third-year players, I’ll guesstimate that about two-thirds of the salary cap value is tied up in the 53% of the players that actually remain on their rookie contracts in year three, which would have those players occupying about $5,109,255 of cap space.

From 2004 to 2012, there were, on average, 16 players per team who were in their first three years and were not drafted by that team. The minimum for a second-year player will be $510K for 2013, so that seems like a fine enough estimate to use here. And while the majority of the 9 to 11 players added by a team to cover injuries will consist of these players, remember that those players added after week 1 are irrelevant to the point of this post (which is how much money should be spent on the opening day roster — hence the need for a buffer).

The good news is we’re almost done. Each team will roster 6.3 rookies, 5.2 second-year players, and 4.3 third-year players that they have drafted, which means they’ll have a total of 15.75 players on their rookie contracts. Let’s say each team will place 1.75 players on IR before the season, to give us a round number of 39 remaining spots. Of the 16 undrafted/second-contract players in their first, second, and third years, perhaps 9 of them will be on the healthy opening day roster. That means the other 30 players will be Veterans in their fourth year or later (and we can assume two more Veterans will be added during the season to total 64 players). The minimum amount for Veterans varies based on experience, but we can use $850K as a rough guess for the average salary cap minimum for the group of Veterans as a whole.

You can play with the Salary Cap Calculator below to see why, but all of the above leaves us with about about $74 million marginal dollars to spend on our 30 veterans. That’s about 2.45 million marginal dollars for each Veteran, or about $3.3M per player. Now, think back to the thought experiments from Friday and Saturday. If you decide that the replacement-level team boosted by young players from the thought experiments would win about 3 games per season, then the marginal value of a win is about $15M. That’s because the average team wins 8 games, so if a team full of players on veterans minimum contracts and young players will win three games, then the $74M marginal salary cap dollars you will actually spend on Veterans only nets you five wins. That’s about one win for every additional $15M you spend. If you think such a hypothetical team will go 1-15 on average, then a player that can get you one marginal win is only worth $10.5M in cap space. The more productive replacement-level players are, the higher the value attached to the league’s stars.

With so many estimates in this post, I think the most valuable part (aside from the thought experiment) is the Salary Cap Calculator below. You’re free to change the inputs as you like, and the Calculator will automatically update. I’ve included a field for dead money, although I’m not quite sure how — or if — that’s a variable that should factor into this analysis.

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That is a lot to digest. Let me know your thoughts in the comments. This is only step one in the process, and reader feedback will have a big role in how the rest of this series turns out.