One way to measures this is to calculate the percentage of team targets had by every player on each team, square that result, and sum those squared results to get a team grade. Let’s use the Steelers as an example. Pittsburgh has 273 team targets this year, and star receiver Antonio Brown has seen 94, or 34%, of those targets. The square of 34% is 11.9%; perform those calculations for every Steelers who has a target this year, and the sum of those squares is 19.6%.

That 19.6% number is the highest in the NFL this season, at least through nine weeks. It’s followed by the Texans and Cowboys at 18%, as both Texas teams rely heavily on their star wide receivers, DeAndre Hopkins and Dez Bryant. The Panthers, Bengals, and Dolphins are the next three teams, and all three have below-average passing games. I’m loathe to fault A.J. Green for Cincinnati’s struggles, but Carolina and Miami are putting huge target numbers on unproductive players: Jarvis Landry leads the NFL in targets per game and ranks 4th in percentage of team targets despite averaging an anemic 7.7 yards per catch on a 64.4% catch rate. Christian McCaffrey has received 25% of all Panthers targets, but he’s only averaging 7.5 yards per reception (and has a 75.0% catch rate).

The five teams with the least concentrated passing games all have bad passing offenses: the 49ers, Giants, Bears, Ravens, and Browns. The fact that those passing attacks have spread the football around may be more to do with injuries and poor receivers than design; I am sure the Giants would love to have instead thrown 90 passes to Odell Beckham this year. Cleveland, for example, ranks dead last in both concentration index and ANY/A this year: that’s because the Browns simply have nobody to throw it to.

The table below shows, for each passing attack, its number of targets, its concentration index, and its Relative ANY/A — that is, the amount of ANY/A above or below average.

The Browns are 32nd in ANY/A and 32nd in concentration index; the Ravens are 31st in ANY/A and 31st in concentration index. There’s definitely a correlation between the two statistics (in fact, the correlation coefficient is 0.43, indicating a relatively strong positive connection), but there are also outliers.

Kirk Cousins and the Redskins are one. Washington ranks 7th in ANY/A, but just 26th in concentration index, the only team in the top quarter of ANY/A and bottom quarter of concentration index (the Dolphins and Panthers are in the reverse categories). Cousins has done an impressive job of spreading the football around: Chris Thompson actually leads the team in targets with 46, but six other players (Jamison Crowder, Terrelle Pryor, Jordan Reed, Ryan Grant, Vernon Davis, and Josh Doctson) have at least 22 targets. Washington has a top-8 passing attack with its leaders in receiving yards being a backup running back, a 33-year-old tight end, and Jamison Crowder and Ryan Grant. Meanwhile, higher profile names like Pryor, Reed, and Doctson rank 5-6-7 on the team in receiving yards.

For Jared Goff and the Rams, a similar story has unfolded. Five players — WR Robert Woods, WR Cooper Kupp, RB Todd Gurley, WR Sammy Watkins, and TE Tyler Higbee — have between 29 and 49 targets, with no player having yet hit the 50-target threshold. That arguably makes Jared Goff’s work this year even more impressive.

And then there is Alex Smith and the Chiefs. On the surface, it might feel like everything in Kansas City is going through Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, or Kareem Hunt. And while those three have about two-thirds of the team’s receiving yards, they “only” have accounted for 58% of Kansas City targets. That means 42% of the team’s passes are still going to the other, less-accomplished members of the Chiefs dominant passing attack.

Eli Manning was about as good in 2012 as he was in 2011, July 15, 2013

On the surface, Eli Manning’s numbers dropped significantly from 2011 to 2012; after further review, his “decline” was entirely due to two factors: attempting fewer passes and lower YAC by his receivers. And since Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks were largely responsible for those declines, it seemed fair to wonder how much of the blame should go to Manning.

In addition, the Giants offense ranked 2nd in points per drive in 2012. So it seemed like any question about Manning’s “decline” in 2012 was silly. Of course, a year later, it’s the concept of defending Manning that seems silly. In 2013, he led the league in interceptions and had the worst season of his career since his rookie year. His yards per attempt dropped to 6.9, and as his offensive line was decimated by injuries, his sack rate jumped to a career high 6.6%.

Interestingly enough, in 2013, Manning averaged 7.43 average Air Yards per completed pass (6th in the NFL) and 4.62 YAC per completion (32nd). In other words, YAC was still an issue for the 2013 Giants, which may explain the additions of Rashad Jennings and Odell Beckham, Jr.

Which Passers Were Most Effective on Third Down in 2012?, July 23, 2013

This post on Robert Griffin III served as my Washington preview article. In 2012, Washington’s offense was very successful, but Griffin really struggled when it came to converting first downs through the air. It’s hard to remember, but Griffin was so good two years ago – he led the NFL in yards per pass attempt — that we were forced to resort to obscure stats to critique his game. He did perform slightly below-average in obvious pass situations, and that showed up in his unimpressive third down numbers.

Last year? Well, everything seemed to go poorly for Griffin and Washington…. except third down performance. Griffin converted on 40.4% of his third down situations last season, and produced 7.4 more first downs than the average passer. Perhaps that’s a silver lining in an otherwise miserable season, as Griffin’s ANY/A average dropped by two full yards.

Is change always good? The Cowboys move back to a 4-3 defense, August 22, 2013

Spoiler: change is not always good. The Cowboys defense allowed a franchise- and league-high 6,645 yards last season. Dallas ranked last in first downs allowed, and in the bottom three in passing yards, passing touchdowns, yards per carry, and points per drive. Change is not always good. The only thing worse than the 2013 Cowboys defense may be the 2014 version, with DeMarcus Ware (Denver), Jason Hatcher (Washington), and Sean Lee (IR). Here’s the projected starting lineup:

George Selvie
Henry Melton
Nick Hayden
Jeremy Mincey
Bruce Carter
Justin Durant
Kyle Wilber
Brandon Carr
J.J. Wilcox
Barry Church
Orlando Scandrick

In other words, you want to start your fantasy quarterbacks against Dallas in 2014.

So the key is to grab Jim by the neck real quickly.

Right before the season, I provided an in-depth look at the Eagles performance in the preseason and other issues related to tempo. At the time, we all thought Michael Vick was going to be the team’s quarterback: little did we know that Nick Foles was about to have one of the greatest seasons in backup quarterback history.

Philadelphia wound up running just 1,054 plays last year, which placed the Eagles behind 12 other teams. Does that mean the stories about Kelly and the team’s fast tempo were overblown? No. One extenuating factor was that Foles led the NFL in ANY/A and LeSean McCoy averaged 5.1 yards per carry while leading the league in rushing yards. Philadelphia finished 1st in the NFL in plays of 20+ yards by an astonishing margin: the Eagles had 99 such plays, with the Broncos second with 77. The Eagles also had the most 30+ yard plays and 40+ yards plays, and well, you get the point: it’s hard to accumulate plays when you know, you keep running into the end zone.

But Philadelphia ranked dead last in average minutes per drive according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. The Eagles also ranked 1st in the majority of the Pace Stats on Football Outsiders, including seconds per play, seconds per play in the first half, seconds per play in close games, and seconds per play in neutral situations.

Philadelphia led the NFL in yards per play (6.33) and 32nd in number of seconds between plays. I’d say that’s a pretty ringing endorsement for Chip Kelly’s offense.