Let’s begin with the Houston Texans, who have a basically neutral team. The Texans blew out the Falcons by 21 points, but otherwise have been in all one-score games. In fact, despite a 5-3 record, the Texans actually have a slightly negative Game Script of -0.6. So you would think opposing teams would pass a normal amount against them. You would be wrong: Houston opponents have passed on 66% of all plays this year, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind only the Patriots (against whom opponents are forced to pass from the opening gun).

Why? Well, the Texans have a pretty bad pass defense and a pretty good run defense. Given that in general it’s smarter to pass than to run, and the Texans offense is pretty explosive, you can see why teams tend to pass against Houston. To particularly egregious examples: the Chiefs passed on 77% of plays, and the Chargers 74%, in their games against Houston. In both games, the Texans had a -2.4 Game Script. In both games, Houston trailed 10-0, but their opponents threw on 3 out of every 4 plays. That says a lot about the Texans secondary, and maybe also fear of the Houston offense.

Conversely, we have the San Francisco 49ers. Despite having the second best Game Script in the NFL and an undefeated 7-0 mark, teams have passed on only 60.1% of all plays against San Francisco this year (through 8 weeks, at least; this was written prior to the Thursday Night Game). Teams appear afraid of throwing against the 49ers, and it appears with good reason: the team’s pass defense has been dominant.

The graph below shows each pass defense this season. The X-axis shows Game Script, and the Y-Axis shows pass ratio by that team’s opponents. I have shaded the Texans and 49ers data points, along with the Jets. It’s not all that interesting because of how bad the Jets have been, but the Jets actually have the strongest pass identity of any defense this season, even more than Houston. More on them in a moment.

The table below shows the Z-Scores and pass identities for each defense this year, using the same methodology described yesterday. The Jets have a -8.9 Game Script, the second-worst in the NFL so far this season. And yet teams have passed on them at a near league-average rate, throwing on 57.3% of passes. Why is that? The Jets actually rank 2nd in yards per carry allowed, and have an average pass defense. The Jets also have the second worst sack rate in the NFL, so it’s not very risky for teams to keep calling passes against the Jets.

The Bucs are an interesting defense. Tampa Bay has the clear best rushing defense in the NFL, ranking 1st in yards per game, yards per carry, and first downs per carry through 8 weeks. But the pass defense, as usual in Tampa Bay, is bad. So I’m not surprised to see them join the Jets and Texans as the three defenses teams are most likely to attack through the air, after adjusting for Game Script. It’s nice when the data confirms what I’ve been thinking.

What stands out to you?

As you can see, there’s a clear relationship between the two variables: on average, the better the Game Script, the lower the Pass Ratio.

We can also create season ratings of Game Scripts and Pass Ratios for each team. Let’s use the Patriots and Eagles as examples.

New England has had an average Game Script across its 8 games of +13.1. This year, New England’s pass ratio in those 8 games is 58.2%. Philadelphia has had an average Game Script of -2.2, and a pass ratio of 55.0%. It might strike you as odd to see that New England has a higher pass ratio — i.e., it’s passed more frequently — than Philadelphia. It should! That’s because New England has the strongest passing identity in the NFL, while the Eagles have the strongest rushing identity in the NFL.

The Patriots have, by far, the best average Game Script this season; all else being equal, you might expect New England to therefore have the lowest pass ratio in the NFL. Instead, the team is barely below average, ranking 19th in percentage of passing plays. Philadelphia has the 25th-best Game Script this year, as the Eagles had a -4.4 Game Script against Atlanta, a -4.9 GS against Detroit, a -9.9 vs. Minnesota and a -14.8 against Dallas. And yet the Eagles have just the 25th-best highest passing ratio in the league! That’s very run-heavy, as noted yesterday.

The graph below shows the Game Script (X-Axis) and Pass Ratio (Y-Axis) of each offense this season. I have shaded in team colors the Patriots and Eagles data points:

We can use Z-scores, which measure how many standard deviations from average a metric is, to create pass identities for each team. Philadelphia’s -2.2 Game Script is 0.47 standard deviations below average, while its 55% pass ratio is 0.62 standard deviations below average. We sum those two numbers to create a Pass Identity score, and Philadelphia has the lowest Pass Identity in the NFL at -1.09. The Jets, Seahawks, Colts, Raiders, Vikings, and 49ers grade out as the most run-heavy teams this season after adjusting for Game Script, and that certainly jives with the eye test. The goal in creating Pass Identity scores is not to surprise you, but to quantify what we already know.

Meanwhile, New England’s +13.1 Game Script average is a whopping 2.80 standard deviations above average, while it’s 58.2% pass ratio is only 0.12 standard deviations below average. Add those numbers together, and the Patriots have a Pass Identity of +2.68, the strongest in the NFL. New England is followed by the Chiefs, who rank 6th in both Game Script (usually playing with a lead) and Pass Ratio (64.4%). That makes a team appear to have a very strong pass identity, and Kansas City is followed by the Packers, Bears, and Rams in this regard. I think the eye test would agree that all five of these teams have been very pass-heavy this season, given their Game Scripts.

The full data set, below.

Please leave your thoughts in the comments. One thought I’ve got: this post looks as Pass Ratio, but thanks to a ridiculously dominant defense, the Patriots actually lead the NFL in offensive plays run. As a result, New England actually ranks 4th overall in pass attempts, which is even more stark given the team’s Game Script.