The two leaders in ANY/A in 2016.

• In 1966, Bart Starr led the NFL in ANY/A and was the NFL MVP. Len Dawson led the AFL in ANY/A, and was the AFL’s first-team All-Pro selection at quarterback (running back Jim Nance was the MVP). The Packers and Chiefs met in the Super Bowl, of course, making it one of just two times that the Super Bowl featured two first-team All-Pro choices at quarterback. The other? Super Bowl III, featuring Earl Morrall and Joe Namath).

• In 1971, Roger Staubach had a historically great season, producing a remarkable 7.81 ANY/A. The runner-up that year was Bob Griese, at 6.35, and no other passer was over 6.00. Those 1971 seasons from Staubach and Griese both ranked in the top 50 in my era-adjusted passer rating seasons, too. Alan Page was the AP MVP choice that year, Staubach won the Bert Bell Award for Player of the Year, and Griese won the third MVP, given by the NEA. So when the Cowboys and Dolphins met in the Super Bowl, it featured two MVP quarterbacks, a feat that could be matched this year. The PFWA has already named Ryan as its MVP, but the AP or the Bert Bell Award could choose Brady, which would give us another set of dueling MVPs.

• In 1984 Dan Marino was a unanimous MVP (AP, NEA, PFWA, Bert Bell) on the back of a groundbreaking performance. His raw numbers (48 TDs, 5,084 yards) were remarkable, but so was his 8.94 ANY/A average. Joe Montana had a darn good year, too: his 49ers went 15-1 and his 7.93 ANY/A was 1.24 ANY/A better than any quarterback not named Marino. From an ANY/A dominance standpoint, it’s very similar to what Ryan and Brady have done this year.

And… that’s it.  The chart below shows the ANY/A rankings for the two quarterbacks that started each Super Bowl. In the Super Bowls following the 1969, 1972, 1974, 1979, 1987, 1990, and 2012 Super Bowls, one starter didn’t have enough regular season attempts to qualify for the ANY/A crown, so I have put them on the 40 line.  And Dawson/Starr are on top of each other in 1966, since both ranked 1st in their league.

This year’s Super Bowl certainly seems worthy of joining the Starr/Dawson, Staubach/Griese, and Montana/Marino Super Bowls. If you want a top 5, let’s give a noteworthy nod to Bradshaw/Staubach from ’78. Staubach led the NFL in ANY/A at 6.18, with Dan Fouts second at 6.08, and Terry Bradshaw just behind at 6.05. That was about half a yard of ANY/A above the rest of the league. Staubach and Bradshaw also ranked 1st-2nd in passer rating, and while Staubach led the league in passer rating and ANY/A, it was Bradshaw who won the AP MVP and Bert Bell MVP awards. Staubach did take home the NFC Player of the Year award from the KC101 Club and was the NFC Player of the Year based on the Players’ Association vote.

• Carolina ranked only 11th in yards, the worst-ever ranking for the top-scoring team; and
• Carolina ranked only 9th in NY/A, the worst-ever ranking for the top-scoring team.

With the Patriots, you may be surprised to learn that while New England finished 1st in points allowed, the defense ranked just 16th in DVOA. There are a few explanations here:

• The Patriots faced by far the easiest schedule of any defense in the NFL.  New England’s SOS was -7.1%, while Tennessee was 31st at -4.2%, and the Bills were 30th at -3.0%.  The Patriots would be tied for 8th in DVOA if that metric was not adjusted for strength of schedule, which is why the defense falls to 16th with those adjustments.

• New England had just 11 turnovers, tied with the Falcons for fewest in the league. Combined with a generally good offense, and the average opponent’s drive against New England started inside the 25-yard line, the best in the league. That means the Patriots defense had a lot of turf behind them, making life much easier for the defense.

• Opposing kickers missed 8 of 29 attempts, including three from within 45 yards.  In addition, the Patriots were 8th in red zone defense and 3rd in goal-to-go defense, which helps the points allowed numbers.

New England’s defense was hardly bad by traditional numbers: the Patriots ranked 8th in total yards allowed, 6th in Net Yards per pass Attempt allowed, and 3rd and 4th in yards per carry allowed and rush defense DVOA.  That’s a good defense, but again, is boosted by the very easy schedule.

How easy? Well, Russell Wilson threw for 348 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs against the Patriots, averaging 9.6 ANY/A.  And Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 6.6 ANY/A against New England, which is really good considering he was at 5.00 overall.  Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton both averaged 1.3 more ANY/A against the Patriots than they did during the entire 2016 season.

On average, the 16 quarterbacks the Patriots faced (including Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor two times) averaged 5.85 ANY/A against New England, a hair better than they did against the rest of the NFL (5.75). ^[1]This is the weighted average result, based on attempts. Take a look:

And that 0.10 difference is arguably inflated by facing Matt Moore, who had a great game against the Jets which inflated his regular season numbers. Take out Moore, and the Patriots defense’s average opposing QB averaged 5.52 ANY/A against New England, and just 5.27 ANY/A ^[2]Again, using a weighted average. against the rest of the NFL. So when it comes to Matt Ryan in Super Bowl LI, if he does very well against “the #1 scoring defense in the NFL”, we really shouldn’t be surprised. Ryan, of course, averaged 9.03 ANY/A during the regular season; if he averages a quarter ANY/A more than that in 10 days, the Patriots will be in significant trouble.

Perhaps most telling on the above list is the lack of any high-end caliber quarterbacks. Excluding Moore, Wilson and Dalton were the two best passers the Patriots faced; they ranked 12th and 13th in ANY/A during the regular season.  New England did face Ben Roethlisberger in the AFC Championship Game, of course, and Roethlisberger (6.15 ANY/A) was held slightly below his regular-season average (6.98). But as far as “number one scoring defenses” go, this is a pretty nonthreatening defense to face for the top quarterback in the NFL in 2016.