Before speculating on the 2012 season, we need to look at how the Patriots passing game has operated in the past. The chart below shows a breakdown of targets in the New England passing game for each of the past ten years by position:

Some thoughts:

• Kevin Faulk used to get around 55 targets per season, but New England has essentially fazed the running back out of the passing game. I doubt that is by design, but more a reflection of New England’s failure to find the right replacement at the position. Note that New England signed ex-Florida Gator running back and Olympic silver medalist Jeff Demps last week, although he is unlikely to make an immediate impact.
• From ’02 to ’05, the Patriots had a pretty consistent offense. Troy Brown, David Patten, Deion Branch, and David Givens each spent time as the main receiver, and in ’02, ’04 and ’05, wide receivers as a group saw 63-64% of the Patriots’ targets. In ’03, Brown had fallen off while Givens and Patten weren’t main cogs in the offense, but otherwise, New England’s offensive philosophy didn’t vary. Then, after the 2005 season, the Patriots traded Deion Branch, who had seen 23% of the team’s targets in that season. The ’06 Patriots responded by throwing more to Ben Watson, which ultimately proved not to be the answer.
• In 2006, Reche Caldwell led the team in targets, which prompted the Patriots to add Randy Moss and Wes Welker in the following off-season. Whereas the targets for the WR1 and WR2 had been declining from ’04 to ’06, in 2007, Moss and Welker received over 50% of the team’s targets, and the tight ends and running backs became less integral. In 2008, even without Brady, little changed with Matt Cassel running the offense, with the most notable decline being the lack of targets for the fourth, fifth and sixth wide receivers. 2009 resembled 2007, as Brady got the Sam Aikens and Joey Galloways of the world involved. By that time, the Patriots were running a full spread offense, and had almost entirely forgotten about the tight end. But much of that was out of necessity: Ben Watson was in his final year with the team and the Patriots wanted more speed on the field; New England had signed Chris Baker to be the backup tight end, but the long-time Jet had little left in his tank.
• In that context, perhaps it isn’t surprising that New England added Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in the 2010 draft. Moss had worn out his welcome, and New England struggled to find a true replacement. The Patriots turned to their young tight ends, along with Danny Woodhead, but still were weak at wide receiver as Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman were not competent as backup wide receivers. In the off-season, the Patriots signed Chad Ochocinco, which turned out to be a disaster. Outside of the WR1 and WR2, the other wide receivers and the running backs averaged 39% of the team’s targets from ’02 to ’10; in 2011, that number dropped to 18%, the first time that group failed to have at least 31% of the team’s targets. In ’03, for example, the backup WRs and the RBs had nearly 50% of the targets, but the talent was there: David Givens, Bethel Johnson, David Patten, Kevin Faulk, Larry Centers and Antowain Smith weren’t stars, but were competent in their roles. Last year, Ochocinco, Edelman and Tiquan Underwood added almost nothing, while only Woodhead was a threat in the passing game among the running backs.

So what can we expect for 2011? BenJarvus Green-Ellis is gone, but New England doesn’t seem likely to give Shane Vereen many more targets. I think we can safely conclude that the Patriots won’t be depending on their running backs to gain yards through the air in 2012. But I do think the Patriots want more from their wide receivers, and the signing of Brandon Lloyd should increase the production of both the WR2 and the WR3, which is where Branch will now be. Assuming he isn’t cut, I doubt Branch is fazed out completely — Ochocinco saw only 5% of the Patriots targets last year, but usually New England will target their third wide receiver around 10% of the time. With so many mouths to feed, Welker is likely to see a small decline in attention. If we put Welker at 23%, Lloyd at 19%, Branch at 9% and the other wide receivers at 3%, that would mean Brady would target his receivers on 54% of his passes. Giving the running backs 10% — the same number as last season — would leave 36% for the tight ends. We’ll probably see both Gronkowski and Hernandez each up with 18% of the targets, as Brady hasn’t shown a significant preference for either player.

Assuming strong production per target, it’s certainly possible for Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez to all have monster years in 2011 *and* for Brandon Lloyd to improve on Branch’s numbers and for Branch to improve on Ochocinco’s performance. Of course, all of this assumes — or signals — that Tom Brady is going to have a monster year if things go according to plan. But to expect Brady to improve on last year’s numbers may be asking too much.

For fantasy purposes, the bigger question might be about the size of the pie rather than about its breakdown. If New England’s defense is better, the Patriots could certainly end up passing less this year. Brady may be more effective per pass, and could put up lofty touchdown numbers, but without a high number of attempts (aided by a bad defense) it’s unlikely we see Brady set his sights on 5,000 yards again. I think the Patriots offense can handle the addition of Brandon Lloyd, and think it’s clear that Belichick wants to incorporate that vertical threat on the outside into his offense. And let’s not forget, the offensive line is as unsettled as it’s been in years. From a fantasy perspective, though, it will be important not to chase last year’s numbers too much.

If Welker and Gronkowski each lose 10% of their targets, and then the Patriots also throw 5% less frequently, those small slices can add up. Welker with 100 catches is a lot less valuable than Welker with 122 catches. I don’t think any of the stars in New England bust, but if that defense can approach league average levels, all of the Patriots stars may end up failing to live up to their fantasy draft status. I suspect that Brady finds the open receiver and doesn’t lock on any of his targets, leaving Gronkowski, Welker, Lloyd and Hernandez with very similar receiving yards totals. Gronkowski should lead in touchdowns and Welker in receptions, but otherwise good luck predicting which player Brady will lock in on in any given week. One mark that could possibly fall: New England might be the first team to have four 1,000-yard receivers in the same season.

But once the Broncos struggled to start the season, Denver shipped Lloyd off to St. Louis and reunited him with his former coach. In 11 games, Lloyd had modest production — 51 catches, 683 yards and 5 TDs — but much of that can be attributed to playing in arguably the league’s worst offense. He joins a very crowded New England passing attack, but should have a strong season with the Patriots.

I have a large but incomplete database on coaching staffs in the NFL, stretching back to 1990, and a complete list of head coaches for all of pro football history. I wondered, how many times has an offensive player played for the same offensive coordinator or head coach on three different teams? By my count, I see six examples since 1990:

The rumors are true. I've hired Charlie Garner to join the FFCA.

• Gus Frerotte and Scott Linehan: Frerotte was the backup quarterback to Daunte Culpepper and Linehan was the offensive coordinator on the 2004 Vikings. The next year, Linehan went to Miami to serve as the OC under Nick Saban, and brought in Frerotte to be his starting quarterback. When Linehan was hired as the Rams head coach in 2006, he brought Frerotte to St. Louis to sit behind Marc Bulger.

• Charlie Garner and Jon Gruden: Charlie Garner was drafted by the Eagles in 1994, and Gruden served as the team’s offensive coordinator from 1995 to 1997. Gruden’s success with the Eagles landed him the Raiders coaching job in ’98; in 2001, he added the final piece to the dynamic Raiders passing attack. Garner immediately filled the role of pass-catching, West Coast Offense running back perfectly. He nearly mirrored Roger Craig’s production a year later, when Garner became just the third player in league history to gain over 900 yards on the ground and through the air in the same season. Gruden was in Tampa Bay by then, and Garner joined him there in 2004, his final season in the league.

• Justin Griffith and Greg Knapp: Fullback Justin Griffith was drafted by the Falcons in 2003; a year later, Knapp came over to Atlanta to run the offense. The two would stick together for six straight seasons in three different cities. When Knapp was purged in connection with the Falcons transition from Jim Mora to Bobby Petrino, Knapp and Griffith went to Oakland to join Lane Kiffin and JaMarcus Russell for two seasons. While the Raiders experience was a disaster, the timing was right: by 2009, Mora was the head coach of the Seahawks, and Griffith and Knapp re-joined him in Seattle. The reunion wasn’t successful, and all three were out of Seattle after one season. Knapp ended up in Houston as a quarterbacks coach. Griffith signed with the Texans for a cup of coffee in 2010, but did not make the final roster.

You hear Belichick said he's gonna get another HC job?

• William Roberts and Dave Meggett, and Bill Parcells: Parcells famously brought many of his defensive players with him along his stops in New York (Giants), New England, New York (Jets) and Dallas (he would do the same when he went to serve in the front office in Miami). He also saw enough in offensive lineman William Roberts and running back/special teams star Dave Meggett to coach them for three different franchises. Roberts was a starter for a decade with the Giants, winning two Super Bowls with Parcells and earning a Pro Bowl berth in 1990. Meggett was drafted in 1990, and led the league in punt return yards in each of his first two years with New York. Roberts joined Parcells in New England in 1994, and Meggett came on board a year later, finishing third on the team in receptions. Parcells came to the Jets in 1997 and added Roberts to help bring his guys and his system to the 1-15 Jets. In 1998, Parcells brought in Meggett to provide veteran leadership and depth behind another ex-Patriot, Curtis Martin.

• Ahman Green and Mike Sherman: In 1998, the Seahawks drafted Ahman Green; the next season, Sherman was lured from Green Bay to run the Seahawks offense. After Packers head coach Mike Holmgren left to go to Seattle, the Packers hired Sherman to be their new head coach. Now back in Green Bay, Sherman sought to reacquire Green, trading Fred Vinson and swapping late round picks with Holmgren. Green was a star in Green Bay, ultimately retiring as the franchise’s all-time leader in rushing yards. Sherman had a less successful run, but was tabbed to run the offense in Houston under Gary Kubiak in 2006. The next season, the Texans signed Green to a four-year, $23 million deal. Green would scored just five touchdowns and start six games during a disappointing two-year stint in Houston. Ahman Green recently announced that he’s considering a comeback; perhaps his first call was to Miami, where Sherman is now the offensive coordinator.

Can you think of any other combinations where an offensive player and coached teamed up for three different franchises? And what do you expect from Brandon Lloyd this season?