Still the king.

As a reminder: tracking things like game-winning touchdowns is only interesting in a trivial sort way. I looked at all games, regular and postseason, in all leagues, from 1940 to 2012, and counted all touchdowns scored that put the player’s team ahead for good (with one exception: I did not count touchdowns scored when down by 7 and the team successfully went for two afterwards). The table below shows all players with at least 4 such game-winning touchdown passes. It won’t do much to settle the Brady/Manning debate.

What I’ve historically done — and done here — is to give each quarterback 100% of his value or score from his best season, 95% of his score in his second best season, 90% of his score in his third best season, and so on. This rewards quarterbacks who played really well for a long time and doesn’t kill players with really poor rookie years or seasons late in their career. It also helps to prevent the quarterbacks who were compilers from dominating the top of the list. The table below shows the top 150 regular season QBs in NFL history using that formula, along with the first and last years of their careers, their number of career attempts (including sacks and rushing touchdowns), and their career records and winning percentages (each since 1950). For visibility reasons, I’ve shown the top 30 quarterbacks below, but you can change that number in the filter or click on the right arrow to see the remaining quarterbacks.

Rk	name	Value	First Yr	Last Yr	Att	Rec	Win%
1	Peyton Manning	11344	1998	2011	7441	141-67-0	0.678
2	Dan Marino	10242	1983	1999	8628	147-93-0	0.613
3	Steve Young	8733	1985	1999	4507	94-49-0	0.657
4	Joe Montana	8315	1979	1994	5704	117-47-0	0.713
5	Tom Brady	7897	2000	2011	5597	124-35-0	0.78
6	Fran Tarkenton	7680	1961	1978	7067	124-109-6	0.531
7	Johnny Unitas	7300	1956	1973	5587	118-64-4	0.645
8	Dan Fouts	7166	1973	1987	5923	86-84-1	0.506
9	Brett Favre	7030	1991	2010	10694	186-112-0	0.624
10	Drew Brees	6794	2001	2011	5687	92-61-0	0.601
11	Norm Van Brocklin	6680	1949	1960	3036	61-36-4	0.624
12	Ken Anderson	6664	1971	1986	4873	91-81-0	0.529
13	Otto Graham	6500	1946	1955	2817	57-13-1	0.81
14	Sonny Jurgensen	6274	1957	1974	4579	69-73-7	0.487
15	Roger Staubach	5983	1969	1979	3271	85-29-0	0.746
16	Sammy Baugh	5632	1937	1952	3040	11-10-0	0.524
17	Sid Luckman	5430	1939	1950	1748	0-0-0	---
18	Y.A. Tittle	5134	1948	1964	4763	78-52-5	0.596
19	Len Dawson	4797	1957	1975	4119	94-57-8	0.616
20	Kurt Warner	4791	1998	2009	4330	67-49-0	0.578
21	Aaron Rodgers	4697	2005	2011	2273	41-21-0	0.661
22	Joe Namath	4683	1965	1977	3934	62-63-4	0.496
23	Philip Rivers	4624	2004	2011	3207	63-33-0	0.656
24	Daryle Lamonica	4455	1963	1974	2760	66-16-6	0.784
25	John Hadl	4442	1962	1977	4979	82-76-9	0.518
26	John Elway	4291	1983	1998	7766	148-82-1	0.643
27	John Brodie	4261	1957	1973	4772	74-77-8	0.491
28	Jeff Garcia	4254	1999	2011	3857	58-58-0	0.5
29	Boomer Esiason	4248	1984	1997	5523	80-93-0	0.462
30	Tony Romo	4152	2004	2011	2734	47-30-0	0.61
31	Jim Hart	4031	1966	1984	5361	87-88-5	0.497
32	Trent Green	3916	1997	2008	3999	56-57-0	0.496
33	Warren Moon	3874	1984	2000	7281	102-101-0	0.502
34	Donovan McNabb	3842	1999	2011	5784	98-62-1	0.612
35	Roman Gabriel	3750	1962	1977	4862	86-64-7	0.57
36	Bert Jones	3714	1973	1982	2783	47-49-0	0.49
37	Steve McNair	3691	1995	2007	4798	91-62-0	0.595
38	Bart Starr	3676	1956	1971	3487	94-57-6	0.618
39	Jim Kelly	3580	1986	1996	5102	101-59-0	0.631
40	Rich Gannon	3457	1987	2004	4508	76-56-0	0.576
41	Cecil Isbell	3349	1938	1942	818	0-0-0	---
42	Troy Aikman	3344	1989	2000	4974	94-71-0	0.57
43	Bob Griese	3175	1967	1980	3768	92-56-3	0.619
44	Charlie Conerly	3147	1948	1961	3029	58-31-1	0.65
45	Bobby Layne	3138	1948	1962	3987	80-51-4	0.607
46	Ben Roethlisberger	3113	2004	2011	3627	80-33-0	0.708
47	Mark Brunell	2992	1994	2011	5030	78-73-0	0.517
48	Terry Bradshaw	2940	1970	1983	4208	107-51-0	0.677
49	Jim Everett	2876	1986	1997	5180	64-89-0	0.418
50	Matt Schaub	2874	2004	2011	2403	32-34-0	0.485
51	Craig Morton	2790	1965	1982	4188	81-62-1	0.566
52	Steve Grogan	2709	1975	1990	3840	75-60-0	0.556
53	Randall Cunningham	2702	1985	2001	4773	82-52-1	0.611
54	Earl Morrall	2698	1956	1976	2958	63-37-3	0.626
55	Arnie Herber	2690	1930	1945	1175	0-0-0	---
56	Daunte Culpepper	2690	1999	2009	3497	41-59-0	0.41
57	Tommy Thompson	2653	1940	1950	1449	6-6-0	0.5
58	Billy Kilmer	2647	1961	1978	3143	61-52-1	0.539
59	Vinny Testaverde	2641	1987	2007	7118	90-123-1	0.423
60	Ken Stabler	2624	1970	1984	4074	96-49-1	0.661
61	Joe Theismann	2592	1974	1985	3942	77-47-0	0.621
62	Mark Rypien	2399	1988	2001	2710	47-31-0	0.603
63	Johnny Lujack	2375	1948	1951	856	13-6-0	0.684
64	Bernie Kosar	2295	1985	1996	3638	53-54-1	0.495
65	Brad Johnson	2192	1994	2008	4577	72-53-0	0.576
66	Bob Waterfield	2173	1945	1952	1654	14-8-0	0.636
67	Milt Plum	2166	1957	1969	2629	56-40-6	0.578
68	Carson Palmer	2119	2004	2011	3722	50-56-0	0.472
69	Chad Pennington	2111	2000	2010	2633	44-37-0	0.543
70	Frank Ryan	2107	1958	1970	2333	57-27-3	0.672
71	George Blanda	2062	1949	1975	4204	53-50-1	0.514
72	Michael Vick	2028	2001	2011	2782	53-37-1	0.588
73	Greg Landry	1916	1968	1984	2616	44-51-3	0.464
74	Brian Sipe	1911	1974	1983	3663	57-55-0	0.509
75	Matt Hasselbeck	1905	1999	2011	5125	78-69-0	0.531
76	Doug Williams	1883	1978	1989	2591	38-42-1	0.475
77	Charley Johnson	1842	1961	1975	3661	59-57-8	0.508
78	Joe Ferguson	1785	1973	1990	4831	79-92-0	0.462
79	Jim McMahon	1755	1982	1996	2799	67-30-0	0.691
80	Phil Simms	1749	1979	1993	5124	95-64-0	0.597
81	Ed Danowski	1684	1934	1941	637	0-0-0	---
82	Matt Ryan	1648	2008	2011	2107	43-19-0	0.694
83	Ron Jaworski	1645	1974	1989	4480	73-69-1	0.514
84	Don Meredith	1641	1960	1968	2569	48-33-4	0.588
85	Doug Flutie	1624	1986	2005	2258	38-28-0	0.576
86	Neil Lomax	1610	1981	1988	3515	47-52-2	0.475
87	Bernie Masterson	1608	1934	1940	409	0-0-0	---
88	Dave Krieg	1552	1980	1998	5805	98-77-0	0.56
89	Danny White	1551	1976	1988	3191	62-30-0	0.674
90	Bill Nelsen	1531	1963	1972	2056	40-31-3	0.561
91	Steve DeBerg	1487	1978	1998	5320	53-86-1	0.382
92	Jeff Hostetler	1407	1985	1997	2545	51-32-0	0.614
93	Bill Kenney	1394	1980	1988	2625	34-43-0	0.442
94	Billy Wade	1384	1954	1966	2720	40-43-2	0.482
95	Neil O'Donnell	1382	1991	2003	3488	55-45-0	0.55
96	Chris Chandler	1373	1988	2004	4385	67-85-0	0.441
97	Wade Wilson	1335	1981	1998	2645	36-33-0	0.522
98	Norm Snead	1320	1961	1976	4695	52-99-7	0.351
99	Elvis Grbac	1291	1994	2001	2574	40-30-0	0.571
100	Jeff George	1286	1990	2001	4325	46-78-0	0.371
101	Tom Flores	1252	1960	1969	1877	31-32-4	0.493
102	Marc Bulger	1210	2002	2009	3425	41-54-0	0.432
103	Bob Monnett	1202	1933	1938	290	0-0-0	---
104	Bobby Hebert	1183	1985	1996	3299	56-44-0	0.56
105	George Ratterman	1131	1947	1956	1450	9-8-1	0.528
106	Bobby Thomason	1119	1949	1957	1477	19-22-1	0.464
107	Eli Manning	1119	2004	2011	4115	69-50-0	0.58
108	Jim Zorn	1090	1976	1987	3362	44-62-0	0.415
109	Jake Delhomme	1023	1999	2011	3100	56-40-0	0.583
110	Ed Brown	1019	1954	1965	2181	55-38-5	0.587
111	Keith Molesworth	1006	1931	1937	220	0-0-0	---
112	Ace Parker	999	1937	1946	718	0-0-0	---
113	Tommy Kramer	978	1977	1990	3900	54-56-0	0.491
114	Bill Munson	973	1964	1979	2168	27-34-5	0.447
115	Steve Beuerlein	965	1988	2003	3660	47-55-0	0.461
116	Steve Bartkowski	963	1975	1986	3812	59-68-0	0.465
117	Ray Mallouf	913	1941	1949	326	0-0-0	---
118	James Harris	904	1969	1979	1250	25-16-0	0.61
119	David Garrard	879	2002	2010	2460	39-37-0	0.513
120	Frankie Albert	848	1946	1952	1644	13-16-1	0.45
121	Babe Parilli	846	1952	1969	3598	49-46-7	0.515
122	Ken O'Brien	837	1984	1993	3955	50-59-1	0.459
123	Jake Plummer	798	1997	2006	4634	69-67-0	0.507
124	Jim Harbaugh	796	1987	2000	4279	66-74-0	0.471
125	Erik Kramer	776	1987	1999	2421	31-36-0	0.463
126	Virgil Carter	766	1968	1976	838	16-14-0	0.533
127	Pat Haden	763	1976	1981	1478	35-19-1	0.645
128	Stan Humphries	724	1989	1997	2660	50-31-0	0.617
129	Gary Danielson	724	1976	1988	2115	28-31-1	0.475
130	Brian Griese	718	1998	2008	2989	45-38-0	0.542
131	Bob Berry	708	1965	1975	1342	20-29-3	0.413
132	Cam Newton	705	2011	2011	552	6-10-0	0.375
133	Gus Frerotte	691	1994	2008	3313	45-47-1	0.489
134	Drew Bledsoe	688	1993	2006	7184	98-95-0	0.508
135	Jay Cutler	661	2006	2011	2682	41-37-0	0.526
136	Jeff Blake	652	1992	2005	3489	39-61-0	0.39
137	Tobin Rote	633	1950	1966	3166	48-63-4	0.435
138	Tuffy Leemans	632	1936	1943	222	0-0-0	---
139	Lynn Dickey	630	1971	1985	3422	45-63-3	0.419
140	Jay Schroeder	619	1985	1994	3016	61-38-0	0.616
141	Dutch Clark	599	1931	1938	122	0-0-0	---
142	Frank Filchock	580	1938	1950	677	0-0-0	---
143	Edd Hargett	576	1969	1973	459	1-5-1	0.214
144	Paul Governali	564	1946	1948	500	0-0-0	---
145	Tony Eason	511	1983	1990	1741	28-23-0	0.549
146	Scott Mitchell	496	1991	2001	2501	32-39-0	0.451
147	Glenn Presnell	492	1931	1936	309	0-0-0	---
148	Vince Ferragamo	469	1977	1986	1709	27-26-0	0.509
149	Harry Newman	467	1933	1935	229	0-0-0	---
150	Don Strock	454	1974	1988	816	16-6-0	0.727

A great regular season quarterback/stats star.

For a long time, I was probably the leader of the “Tom Brady is overrated” crowd. But that wagon has long been without wheels. Even ignoring the postseason, Brady’s statistically the fifth best quarterback of all time. He has a top-five season, two of the top-ten seasons, three of the top thirty seasons and four of the top 100 seasons — all in his last four full seasons. There’s little reason to think another monster season isn’t on the horizon in 2012, either. Thanks largely to his 2007 season, he cracked my top 20 regular season list in 2008, but his run the last half-decade has been remarkable.

Ken Anderson is the highest ranking quarterback not eligible and not in the Hall of Fame; his case has been a thorn in the side of football statisticians for years. Conversely, Troy Aikman, Bob Griese, Bobby Layne and Terry Bradshaw all rank outside of the top 40 on this regular-season only list. Layne is an interesting character worthy of a much longer post. He retired as the career leader in passing touchdowns, passing yards, completions — and attempts. But he didn’t have any historically great seasons in Detroit; if you line up all the Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the modern era by their best couple of years, Layne would probably come in at the very end. The best stretch of his career statistically was his 10-game season with the Steelers in 1958, when he set career highs in yards per game, yards per attempt, and adjusted yards per attempt.

One note as you scan the list: remember that this system is designed to pick the best quarterbacks in football history; as such, the formula is much better for analyzing the quarterbacks at the top than in the middle. If you want to compare Brady to Manning, you would want to use this formula, but if you want to compare two lesser quarterbacks, the more appropriate baseline would be to replacement level, not league average.

I’ll close with one last list. I looked at all QBs on a year-to-year and five-year basis. Who was the best QB in 1980? Who was the best QB from 1950 to 1954? The table below shows the yearly leader in converted yards over average (including post-season) and the five-year leader.

Year	QB Leader	Value	5-year QB leader	Value
1932	Walt Holmer	367	Arnie Herber	2008
1933	Glenn Presnell	578	Arnie Herber	1835
1934	Arnie Herber	528	Ed Danowski	1865
1935	Ed Danowski	798	Arnie Herber	1753
1936	Arnie Herber	713	Arnie Herber	1559
1937	Ed Danowski	531	Cecil Isbell	2114
1938	Ed Danowski	441	Cecil Isbell	3565
1939	Frank Filchock	903	Sid Luckman	3987
1940	Sammy Baugh	849	Sid Luckman	3850
1941	Sid Luckman	990	Sid Luckman	4256
1942	Cecil Isbell	1450	Sid Luckman	4117
1943	Sid Luckman	1739	Sid Luckman	4141
1944	Frank Filchock	620	Sammy Baugh	2986
1945	Sammy Baugh	1026	Sammy Baugh	3599
1946	Sid Luckman	852	Otto Graham	2968
1947	Sammy Baugh	1241	Otto Graham	2775
1948	Tommy Thompson	1113	Norm Van Brocklin	3066
1949	Johnny Lujack	1290	Norm Van Brocklin	4460
1950	Norm Van Brocklin	1112	Norm Van Brocklin	4878
1951	Bob Waterfield	958	Otto Graham	4721
1952	Otto Graham	943	Otto Graham	4247
1953	Otto Graham	1879	Otto Graham	3305
1954	Norm Van Brocklin	869	Johnny Unitas	2100
1955	Otto Graham	867	Johnny Unitas	3386
1956	Tobin Rote	739	Johnny Unitas	4230
1957	Johnny Unitas	826	Johnny Unitas	3976
1958	Johnny Unitas	1071	Johnny Unitas	3200
1959	Johnny Unitas	1286	Johnny Unitas	2972
1960	Milt Plum	1373	Johnny Unitas	3139
1961	Sonny Jurgensen	1251	Johnny Unitas	3024
1962	Y.A. Tittle	1132	Johnny Unitas	3427
1963	Y.A. Tittle	1363	Johnny Unitas	4564
1964	Johnny Unitas	1453	Len Dawson	3861
1965	John Brodie	1050	Joe Namath	4357
1966	Don Meredith	1170	Daryle Lamonica	4363
1967	Sonny Jurgensen	1455	Daryle Lamonica	4539
1968	Daryle Lamonica	1275	Daryle Lamonica	3861
1969	Daryle Lamonica	1191	Fran Tarkenton	3210
1970	John Brodie	1548	Fran Tarkenton	3488
1971	Roger Staubach	1124	Fran Tarkenton	3821
1972	Joe Namath	818	Fran Tarkenton	4792
1973	Roman Gabriel	1196	Ken Anderson	4411
1974	Ken Anderson	1192	Roger Staubach	4106
1975	Ken Anderson	1385	Roger Staubach	4961
1976	Bert Jones	1675	Roger Staubach	4228
1977	Bert Jones	1084	Dan Fouts	4099
1978	Roger Staubach	1085	Dan Fouts	5694
1979	Roger Staubach	1237	Dan Fouts	5779
1980	Brian Sipe	1241	Dan Fouts	5498
1981	Ken Anderson	1489	Dan Fouts	5440
1982	Dan Fouts	1694	Dan Marino	5513
1983	Joe Theismann	1378	Dan Marino	6519
1984	Dan Marino	2436	Dan Marino	6709
1985	Joe Montana	1010	Dan Marino	4734
1986	Dan Marino	1450	Dan Marino	4606
1987	Bernie Kosar	1040	Dan Marino	4046
1988	Boomer Esiason	1356	Dan Marino	4088
1989	Joe Montana	1338	Steve Young	4892
1990	Warren Moon	1115	Steve Young	6168
1991	Mark Rypien	1385	Steve Young	6628
1992	Steve Young	1727	Steve Young	6155
1993	Steve Young	1400	Steve Young	5486
1994	Steve Young	1706	Steve Young	5450
1995	Brett Favre	1175	Brett Favre	3644
1996	Brett Favre	965	Steve Young	2905
1997	Steve Young	1058	Kurt Warner	3953
1998	Randall Cunningham	1585	Rich Gannon	3665
1999	Kurt Warner	1631	Peyton Manning	5091
2000	Jeff Garcia	1570	Peyton Manning	6236
2001	Kurt Warner	1312	Peyton Manning	6293
2002	Rich Gannon	1154	Peyton Manning	7454
2003	Peyton Manning	1459	Peyton Manning	8019
2004	Peyton Manning	2314	Peyton Manning	7433
2005	Peyton Manning	1366	Peyton Manning	6356
2006	Peyton Manning	1740	Peyton Manning	5660
2007	Tom Brady	2192	Tom Brady	6455
2008	Drew Brees	1341
2009	Philip Rivers	1413
2010	Tom Brady	1434
2011	Aaron Rodgers	2063

I love this table, especially the five-year column. This snapshot of NFL history takes us from Arnie Herber and Cecil Isbell in Green Bay to Sid Luckman in Chicago; we see him pass the baton to Sammy Baugh, who in turns hands it off to Otto Graham. Him and Norm Van Brocklin were the stars of their era, but then Johnny Unitas became America’s quarterback. By the late ’60s, the AFL’s three star quarterbacks had become the top passers in pro football, and then Fran Tarkenton, Ken Anderson and Roger Staubach battled it out in the ’70s. Despite the presence of Joe Montana, Dan Fouts and Dan Marino take the cake in the ’80s, and then Steve Young began his remarkably efficient run in the ’90s. Brett Favre wasn’t consistent enough to become the game’s top quarterback for a long stretch, and we saw Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon have great, but short, runs as elite quarterbacks. Peyton Manning dominated the start of this decade, and now Brady has claimed the last five year run. My guess has Brady on here for a couple more seasons, and then Aaron Rodgers taking over.