Fumbles – FootballPerspective.com

The Chargers Had The Worst Fumble Luck In 2019

Chase Stuart — Sun, 08 Mar 2020 14:59:34 +0000

Every season, I like to look at each team’s fumble recovery data. The evidence suggests that when the ball is on the ground, teams aren’t better or worse at recovering those fumbles; in other words, the recovery is driven more by randomness than skill.

Let’s begin with looking at fumbles from the perspective of the offensive team. The New Orleans Saints had the fewest fumbles in the league last season, at just 9. Even more impressive, the Saints lost just two fumbles all year! Of course, that luck didn’t hold up in the postseason: New Orleans lost a critical fumble in the team’s opening playoff game, contributing to the surprise loss to the Vikings.

On average, the fumbling team recovered (or the ball went out of bounds, so the fumbling team retained possession) 53.5% of all fumbles in 2019. No team was “luckier” at recovering their own fumbles than the Saints, but the Broncos actually gained the biggest advantage due to having fumbled much more often. Denver fumbled 21 times last season; that means we would “expect” the Broncos to lose 9.75 of those fumbles. In reality, the team lost just 6 fumbles, meaning Denver recovered 3.75 more fumbles than we would have been expected. Non-QBs for the Broncos fumbled 10 times, but they lost just 2 of those fumbles.

The least fortunate team was the Colts. In 2019, Indianapolis fumbled 18 times, and lost 11 of them! Jacoby Brissett himself lost 5 of 7 fumbles. The table below shows the full fumble data for each offense in 2019:

Rk	Offense	Off Fumbles	Off Fum Lost	Off FR%	FR ovr Avg
1	Denver Broncos	21	6	71.4%	3.75
2	Buffalo Bills	23	7	69.6%	3.68
3	Miami Dolphins	25	8	68%	3.61
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	30	11	63.3%	2.94
5	New Orleans Saints	9	2	77.8%	2.18
6	Washington Redskins	21	8	61.9%	1.75
7	Minnesota Vikings	29	12	58.6%	1.47
8	Baltimore Ravens	18	7	61.1%	1.36
9	Houston Texans	20	8	60%	1.29
10	Los Angeles Rams	17	7	58.8%	0.90
11	Tennessee Titans	21	9	57.1%	0.75
12	Oakland Raiders	21	9	57.1%	0.75
13	New York Jets	21	9	57.1%	0.75
14	New England Patriots	13	6	53.8%	0.04
15	Dallas Cowboys	15	7	53.3%	-0.03
16	Atlanta Falcons	21	10	52.4%	-0.25
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23	11	52.2%	-0.32
18	Cleveland Browns	14	7	50%	-0.50
19	Philadelphia Eagles	31	15	51.6%	-0.60
20	Kansas City Chiefs	20	10	50%	-0.71
21	Chicago Bears	13	7	46.2%	-0.96
22	San Francisco 49ers	19	10	47.4%	-1.17
23	Los Angeles Chargers	21	11	47.6%	-1.25
24	New York Giants	31	16	48.4%	-1.60
25	Arizona Cardinals	9	6	33.3%	-1.82
26	Seattle Seahawks	26	14	46.2%	-1.92
27	Green Bay Packers	15	9	40%	-2.03
28	Jacksonville Jaguars	21	12	42.9%	-2.25
29	Cincinnati Bengals	25	14	44%	-2.39
30	Carolina Panthers	25	14	44%	-2.39
31	Detroit Lions	12	8	33.3%	-2.43
32	Indianapolis Colts	18	11	38.9%	-2.64
	Team	648	301	53.5%	0.00

On defense, the Miami Dolphins were the least lucky team. Miami opponents fumbled 17 times in 2019, and yet the Dolphins defense recovered just three (!) of those fumbles! On the other side of things was the Seattle Seahawks, who already had their share of positive luck, were the luckiest defense at recovering fumbles. Seattle opponents fumbled 25 times, and given the expected rate, we would have expected Seahawks opponents to lose 11.61 of those fumbles. Instead, Seahawks opponents lost 16 of those fumbles, meaning Seattle’s defense recovered an additional 4.39 more fumbles than we would expect. The Dolphins, conversely, recovered 4.90 fewer fumbles than we would expect.

Rk	Defense	Opp Fumbles	Opp Fum Lost	Def FR%	FR ovr Avg
1	Seattle Seahawks	25	16	64%	4.39
2	Minnesota Vikings	22	14	63.6%	3.78
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27	16	59.3%	3.46
4	New Orleans Saints	15	10	66.7%	3.03
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	33	18	54.5%	2.67
6	Houston Texans	16	10	62.5%	2.57
7	Chicago Bears	15	9	60%	2.03
8	San Francisco 49ers	28	15	53.6%	1.99
9	Baltimore Ravens	22	12	54.5%	1.78
10	Tennessee Titans	16	9	56.3%	1.57
11	Dallas Cowboys	19	10	52.6%	1.17
12	Indianapolis Colts	16	8	50%	0.57
13	Los Angeles Rams	23	11	47.8%	0.32
14	Detroit Lions	23	11	47.8%	0.32
15	Philadelphia Eagles	19	9	47.4%	0.17
16	Cincinnati Bengals	11	5	45.5%	-0.11
17	Denver Broncos	16	7	43.8%	-0.43
18	Carolina Panthers	16	7	43.8%	-0.43
19	New York Giants	14	6	42.9%	-0.50
20	Arizona Cardinals	23	10	43.5%	-0.68
21	Jacksonville Jaguars	21	9	42.9%	-0.75
22	Green Bay Packers	19	8	42.1%	-0.83
23	Oakland Raiders	15	6	40%	-0.97
24	New England Patriots	26	11	42.3%	-1.08
25	Washington Redskins	23	9	39.1%	-1.68
26	Cleveland Browns	17	6	35.3%	-1.90
27	Buffalo Bills	24	9	37.5%	-2.15
28	Atlanta Falcons	22	8	36.4%	-2.22
29	Kansas City Chiefs	20	7	35%	-2.29
30	Los Angeles Chargers	16	3	18.8%	-4.43
31	New York Jets	29	9	31%	-4.47
32	Miami Dolphins	17	3	17.6%	-4.90
	Team	648	301	46.5%	0.00

Finally, let’s combine the data. The Pittsburgh Steelers were the “luckiest” team in 2019 when it comes to recovering fumbles. We saw that Pittsburgh recovered 2.94 more of their own fumbles than expected, and the team’s defense recovered 2.67 more fumbles than we would expect. Combined, this means the Steelers recovered 5.61 more fumbles than average, the best rate in the league. The most unlucky team was the Chargers. Los Angeles recovered 5.68 fewer fumbles than we would expect, driven in large part by the defense’s failure to recover fumbles (just 3 of 16).

Rk	Team	Off Fum	Off FumLost	Off FR%	Off FRoAvg	Opp Fum	Opp FumLost	Def FR%	Def FRoAvg	Total FRoAvg
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	30	11	63.3%	2.94	33	18	54.5%	2.67	5.61
2	Minnesota Vikings	29	12	58.6%	1.47	22	14	63.6%	3.78	5.25
3	New Orleans Saints	9	2	77.8%	2.18	15	10	66.7%	3.03	5.21
4	Houston Texans	20	8	60%	1.29	16	10	62.5%	2.57	3.86
5	Denver Broncos	21	6	71.4%	3.75	16	7	43.8%	-0.43	3.32
6	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23	11	52.2%	-0.32	27	16	59.3%	3.46	3.14
7	Baltimore Ravens	18	7	61.1%	1.36	22	12	54.5%	1.78	3.14
8	Seattle Seahawks	26	14	46.2%	-1.92	25	16	64%	4.39	2.46
9	Tennessee Titans	21	9	57.1%	0.75	16	9	56.3%	1.57	2.32
10	Buffalo Bills	23	7	69.6%	3.68	24	9	37.5%	-2.15	1.54
11	Los Angeles Rams	17	7	58.8%	0.90	23	11	47.8%	0.32	1.21
12	Dallas Cowboys	15	7	53.3%	-0.03	19	10	52.6%	1.17	1.14
13	Chicago Bears	13	7	46.2%	-0.96	15	9	60%	2.03	1.07
14	San Francisco 49ers	19	10	47.4%	-1.17	28	15	53.6%	1.99	0.82
15	Washington Redskins	21	8	61.9%	1.75	23	9	39.1%	-1.68	0.07
		648	301	53.5%	0.00	648	301	46.5%	0.00	0.00
16	Oakland Raiders	21	9	57.1%	0.75	15	6	40%	-0.97	-0.21
17	Philadelphia Eagles	31	15	51.6%	-0.60	19	9	47.4%	0.17	-0.43
18	New England Patriots	13	6	53.8%	0.04	26	11	42.3%	-1.08	-1.04
19	Miami Dolphins	25	8	68%	3.61	17	3	17.6%	-4.90	-1.28
20	Indianapolis Colts	18	11	38.9%	-2.64	16	8	50%	0.57	-2.07
21	New York Giants	31	16	48.4%	-1.60	14	6	42.9%	-0.50	-2.10
22	Detroit Lions	12	8	33.3%	-2.43	23	11	47.8%	0.32	-2.11
23	Cleveland Browns	14	7	50%	-0.50	17	6	35.3%	-1.90	-2.39
24	Atlanta Falcons	21	10	52.4%	-0.25	22	8	36.4%	-2.22	-2.46
25	Cincinnati Bengals	25	14	44%	-2.39	11	5	45.5%	-0.11	-2.50
26	Arizona Cardinals	9	6	33.3%	-1.82	23	10	43.5%	-0.68	-2.50
27	Carolina Panthers	25	14	44%	-2.39	16	7	43.8%	-0.43	-2.82
28	Green Bay Packers	15	9	40%	-2.03	19	8	42.1%	-0.83	-2.86
29	Kansas City Chiefs	20	10	50%	-0.71	20	7	35%	-2.29	-3.00
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	21	12	42.9%	-2.25	21	9	42.9%	-0.75	-3.00
31	New York Jets	21	9	57.1%	0.75	29	9	31%	-4.47	-3.72
32	Los Angeles Chargers	21	11	47.6%	-1.25	16	3	18.8%	-4.43	-5.68

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.

The Vikings Had The Worst Fumble Luck In 2018

Chase Stuart — Sat, 13 Apr 2019 15:14:00 +0000

The Vikings and Falcons were two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL in 2018. They happened to be the two teams with the worst fumble recovery rates last year, which is largely driven by luck. On the other side, the Seahawks and Rams had the best two fumble recovery rates, and were two of the most overachieving teams in football last year.

The table below shows the fumble numbers for each team last year when they were the ones with the football. Seattle and Washington had the best fumble recovery luck in this state of the world (i.e., teams on offense). The Seahawks and Redskins each had 18 fumbles, and only lost 4 fumbles. That’s a 78% offensive fumble recovery rate, the best in the league. The average team recovered 57% of their own fumbles. The final column, therefore, shows the number of own fumbles a team recovered over expectation. For Seattle and Washington, they each recovered 3.8 more fumbles than we would expect, since they had 18 fumbles (we would have expected them to recover 10.2 own fumbles, but actually recovered 14). The full list below:

Rk	Team	Fum	Fum Lost	Fum Rec	Fum Rec %	FR Ovr Avg
1	SEA	18	4	22	78%	3.8
1	WAS	18	4	23	78%	3.8
3	CAR	20	6	18	70%	2.6
4	DEN	18	6	18	67%	1.8
4	TEN	18	6	15	67%	1.8
4	KAN	18	6	22	67%	1.8
7	SFO	31	12	21	61%	1.4
8	HOU	19	7	20	63%	1.2
8	CLE	19	7	22	63%	1.2
10	DAL	23	9	23	61%	0.9
10	TAM	23	9	19	61%	0.9
10	BUF	23	9	23	61%	0.9
13	CIN	11	4	13	64%	0.7
14	PHI	29	12	20	59%	0.5
15	LAR	17	7	21	59%	0.3
15	LAC	17	7	16	59%	0.3
17	PIT	21	9	16	57%	0.1
18	ARI	23	10	21	57%	-0.1
18	CHI	23	10	19	57%	-0.1
20	NYG	16	7	11	56%	-0.1
21	BAL	25	11	18	56%	-0.2
22	NYJ	24	11	15	54%	-0.6
22	ATL	24	11	14	54%	-0.6
24	DET	14	7	11	50%	-1
25	NOR	18	9	19	50%	-1.2
26	GNB	22	11	16	50%	-1.5
27	IND	17	9	15	47%	-1.7
28	NWE	11	7	14	36%	-2.3
29	MIA	17	10	10	41%	-2.7
30	MIN	15	10	12	33%	-3.5
31	OAK	24	14	11	42%	-3.6
32	JAX	26	16	13	38%	-4.8
	NFL	642	277	551	57%	0

The Jaguars, with 16 fumbles lost on 26 fumbles, lost 4.8 more fumbles than expected (they recovered 10 of their own fumbles, rather than the 14.8 we would have expected).

What about when the other team fumbles? This is where the Rams really shined. Again, the expectation is the fumbling team recovers 57% of their fumbles, so the other team should recover 43% of opponent fumbles. Los Angeles opponents fumbled 14 times; we would expect the Rams opponents to recover 8 fumbles and the Rams to recover 6 of those fumbles. But in reality, Los Angeles opponents lost 12 fumbles, meaning the Rams recovered 6.0 more fumbles than expected! That was, by a large margin, the best rate in the league.

Rk	Team	Opp Fum	Opp Fum Lost	Tm Fum Rec%	Fum Rec OvAvg
1	LAR	14	12	86%	6
2	SEA	26	14	54%	2.8
2	HOU	26	14	54%	2.8
4	NOR	22	12	55%	2.5
5	CLE	27	14	52%	2.4
6	DAL	21	11	52%	1.9
7	IND	22	11	50%	1.5
8	DET	13	7	54%	1.4
9	NWE	20	10	50%	1.4
10	DEN	23	11	48%	1.1
11	WAS	24	11	46%	0.6
12	CAR	22	10	45%	0.5
13	ARI	20	9	45%	0.4
14	TAM	18	8	44%	0.2
14	GNB	18	8	44%	0.2
16	PIT	16	7	44%	0.1
17	TEN	14	6	43%	0
17	CIN	14	6	43%	0
19	CHI	21	9	43%	-0.1
20	MIA	17	7	41%	-0.3
21	JAX	15	6	40%	-0.5
22	KAN	29	12	41%	-0.5
23	LAC	18	7	39%	-0.8
24	OAK	10	3	30%	-1.3
25	BAL	15	5	33%	-1.5
26	NYJ	20	7	35%	-1.6
27	BUF	30	11	37%	-1.9
28	MIN	24	8	33%	-2.4
29	PHI	22	7	32%	-2.5
30	NYG	19	5	26%	-3.2
31	SFO	21	5	24%	-4.1
32	ATL	21	4	19%	-5.1
	NFL	642	277	43%	0

The worst? The Falcons opponents fumbled 21 times, but Atlanta only recovered 4 of those fumbles. That’s really bad luck: the Falcons picked up 5.1 fewer opponent fumbles than we would expect.

Let’s put this all together, and use the Seahawks as the example. Seattle had 18 own fumbles, and recovered 14 of those fumbles, which is 3.8 more own fumbles recovered than expected. Seattle opponents had 26 fumbles and Seattle opponents lost 14 of them; that means the Seahawks recovered 2.8 more opponent fumbles than expected. Therefore, adding both numbers together, Seattle recovered 6.5 more fumbles than expected in all fumbles in Seahawks games. Meanwhile, the Vikings lost 5.9 more fumbles than expected when the ball hit the ground in a Minnesota game. The full list below:

Rk	Team	Own Fum	Own Fum Rec	Own FR OvrAvg	Opp Fum	Opp Fum Lost	Team FR OvrAvg	Ovr FR OvrAvg
1	SEA	18	14	3.8	26	14	2.8	6.5
2	LAR	17	10	0.3	14	12	6	6.3
3	WAS	18	14	3.8	24	11	0.6	4.4
4	HOU	19	12	1.2	26	14	2.8	4
5	CLE	19	12	1.2	27	14	2.4	3.5
6	CAR	20	14	2.6	22	10	0.5	3.1
7	DAL	23	14	0.9	21	11	1.9	2.9
8	DEN	18	12	1.8	23	11	1.1	2.8
9	TEN	18	12	1.8	14	6	0	1.7
10	NOR	18	9	-1.2	22	12	2.5	1.3
11	KAN	18	12	1.8	29	12	-0.5	1.3
12	TAM	23	14	0.9	18	8	0.2	1.2
13	CIN	11	7	0.7	14	6	0	0.7
14	DET	14	7	-1	13	7	1.4	0.4
15	ARI	23	13	-0.1	20	9	0.4	0.3
16	PIT	21	12	0.1	16	7	0.1	0.2
17	CHI	23	13	-0.1	21	9	-0.1	-0.1
18	IND	17	8	-1.7	22	11	1.5	-0.2
19	LAC	17	10	0.3	18	7	-0.8	-0.4
20	NWE	11	4	-2.3	20	10	1.4	-0.9
21	BUF	23	14	0.9	30	11	-1.9	-1
22	GNB	22	11	-1.5	18	8	0.2	-1.3
23	BAL	25	14	-0.2	15	5	-1.5	-1.7
24	PHI	29	17	0.5	22	7	-2.5	-2
25	NYJ	24	13	-0.6	20	7	-1.6	-2.3
26	SFO	31	19	1.4	21	5	-4.1	-2.7
27	MIA	17	7	-2.7	17	7	-0.3	-3
28	NYG	16	9	-0.1	19	5	-3.2	-3.3
29	OAK	24	10	-3.6	10	3	-1.3	-5
30	JAX	26	10	-4.8	15	6	-0.5	-5.3
31	ATL	24	13	-0.6	21	4	-5.1	-5.7
32	MIN	15	5	-3.5	24	8	-2.4	-5.9

Please leave your thoughts in the comments.