For what it’s worth, here’s what I said last year about Chuck Pagano’s odds of winning last year: Pagano is an interesting case. He’s taking over the nominal worst team in the league, and the Colts appear to be in complete rebuilding mode. Indianapolis voluntarily put itself in 2012 cap hell to give the team maximum flexibility for 2013 and beyond. But even if the team unexpectedly wins 8 games, much of the credit will likely go to Andrew Luck, not Chuck Pagano.

So who will win it this year? Don’t ask me, I’m terrible at this. But starting with a look at the first-year head coaches is probably a good idea.

• Bruce Arians, Arizona: Back-to-back COTY awards for two different franchises would be one of the oddest “records” in sports history. But this might not be as crazy as you think. The Cardinals were bad but not hopeless, and adding Carson Palmer could fix the offense. The defense ranked 6th in DVOA last year, and if Palmer can cure the problems that plagued Larry Fitzgerald, there is real potential for a rebound season. Still, I can’t wrap my head around how odd this would be, and it seems likely that the Cardinals finish the year in the NFC West cellar.
• Andy Reid was actually a chic pick this time last year, and there are many reasons for optimism regarding the 2013 Chiefs. A weak division means the Chiefs could sneak in as a wild card, and you’d have to think going from worst to the playoffs would win Reid the award (just like it did Arians last year).

Then again, if you watched either Reid or the Chiefs last year, the idea of either of them being in the playoffs in 2013 seems kind of crazy.

• Chip Kelly brings a lot of hype to Philadelphia, which is a good thing for COTY chances. All great college coaches are polarizing figures, and some folks expect Kelly to crash and burn; but for purposes of winning Coach of the Year, we should be focusing on upside. The Eagles offense line should be much better this year (with Jason Peters, Todd Herremans, and Jason Kelce returning from injury and and #4 overall pick Lane Johnson manning the right side) and the offense could be very exciting under Kelly. Unfortunately, the defense still has many questions to answer especially in the secondary. The NFC East is probably the worst division in the conference, which works in Kelly’s favor, but a brutal conference means that division likely sends just one team to the postseason.
• Like Kelly, Doug Marrone enters the NFL via the college route. Marrone worked under Sean Payton in New Orleans, although EJ Manuel and Kevin Kolb aren’t going to make anyone think of Drew Brees. The Bills seem to recycle coaches and defensive schemes every couple of years, and I’m done betting on them to pay off. And, of course, Buffalo has that really unfair schedule to deal with.
• Mike McCoy is now the head coach in San Diego, but don’t expect the former Broncos offensive coordinator to magically solve the Chargers’ offensive woes. San Diego had a good draft, adding D.J. Fluker, Manti Te’o, and Keenan Allen in the first three rounds, and that makes the Chargers and McCoy an interesting under-the-radar pick. But if I had to go with an AFC West coach, I’d pick Reid.
• Gus Bradley won’t have to deal with high expectations in Jacksonville. Last year, I didn’t consider the Colts because they looked to be in phase one of a complete rebuild. Well, that’s how the Jaguars appear, except they don’t have a franchise quarterback. Regardless, they could resurrect Vince Lombardi and it wouldn’t matter: I’m not picking the Jacksonville head coach to win COTY again.
• Marc Trestman is in the unique position of taking over a team that had ten wins last year, so there’s not a whole lot of upside. Getting the Bears to the playoffs will help, but I don’t see many reasons to think he’s a good COTY candidate.
• Rob Chudzinkski takes over a bad Browns team, and the AFC North is more ripe for the taking than in recent years. But as in Buffalo, caution is the best course of action when it comes to Cleveland. It seems like every couple of years we expect this to be the year the Browns turn things around, and well, I’ll hold off on expecting that to happen in 2013.

Of course, it’s not like first-year coaches are the only ones eligible for the award. Last year’s rookie head coaches had only moderate success, so any of Dennis Allen, Jeff Fisher, Pagano, Joe Philbin, or Greg Schiano could be a legit candidate with a 10-win season. Fisher is the lead horse in that race, but he has to contend with the two superpowers of the NFL. Perhaps Philbin can capitalize on the Patriots struggles (reminder: still time to enter the contest where users project Tom Brady‘s stats this season). And, of course, that maybe just gives Bill Belichick a leg up on the race this year.

Part of me wants to pick either Reid or Kelly, and think a playoff season by either the Chiefs or Eagles probably gets them the award. But there’s another “new” head coach this season, and I like his odds even better. That’s Sean Payton, who returns to coach the Saints after his one-year suspension. In many ways, predicting who will win COTY is an exercise in predicting sportswriter behavior. And I have to think some sportswriters would enjoy “sticking it” to Roger Goodell and selecting Payton in his first year back.

Rob Ryan is now in charge of a defense that ranked last in yards allowed, net yards per attempt allowed, rushing yards allowed, rushing yards per carry allowed, first downs allowed, Expected Points Added, and defensive DVOA. The 2012 Saints also ranked 31st in points allowed. Ryan himself won’t fix that, but first round pick Kenny Vaccaro should begin to help the problem secondary.

But the real reason for optimism is the always explosive Saints offense. Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, and Darren Sproles are three of the more unique players in the NFL, and help give the Saints an outstanding passing offense. Of course, New Orleans passing attack was great before either Graham or Sproles arrived, as the Brees/Payton engine (with a dash of Marques Colston and Lance Moore) is at times unstoppable. The NFC South is now a loaded division: the Falcons were already great, Darrelle Revis and Dashon Goldson arrive to fix Tampa Bay’s biggest weakness, and the Panthers are better than their record.

Predicting who will win AP Coach of the Year is a fool’s errand, but I’m willing to put my chips on Brees and Payton leading the Saints to the playoffs in a “bounceback” year. The real question is whether that will be enough to convince the voters to select Payton.

Previous “Random Perspective On” Articles:
AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams

Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Generally, the Most Valuable Player award is given to the best quarterback, while the Offensive Player of the Year is usually the player with the most impressive statistics. In the last five years, Tom Brady — first in 2007, and then again in 2010 — is the only player to take home both awards in the same season. Last year, Drew Brees won the award while Aaron Rodgers took home the M.V.P., but running backs Priest Holmes (2002), Jamal Lewis (2003), Shaun Alexander (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), and Chris Johnson (2009) have all won the award in the last decade. While Calvin Johnson will probably get some support for breaking Jerry Rice’s single-season record for receiving yards, Adrian Peterson has had this award locked up for a month, and finishing the season with 2,097 yards was the icing on the cake.

I don’t think you’ll find too many people arguing about this one. Peterson’s story is outstanding, and it’s hard to argue that he didn’t provide the single most impressive performance by an offensive player this year. Quarterbacks may be more valuable, but it’s hard not to just sit back and admire what Peterson’s done. Johnson’s also had a magnificent season, but he was greatly aided by the Lions also breaking the record for pass attempts in a season.

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, Houston Texans

The shine is off the Texans, but there’s no denying that their star lineman has been outstanding this year. If the stars were aligned slightly differently — say, the Texans were streaking towards the end of the year, and Watt had a monster primetime game late — he’d have a legitimate chance at the M.V.P. award. Last month, I talked about how this award was a three-man race with the stars all coming from the 2011 Draft. In that article I also mentioned Geno Atkins as a possible darkhorse, and he’s been ever better since. But Watt has 20.5 sacks and the national reputation as the Sultan of Swatt, so this award is pretty easy to predict.

And well justified. Watt’s production as a 3-4 defensive end is remarkable. He now owns the single-season record for sacks by a player at that position, but he’s far from one dimensional. We know that he is fantastic at tipping passes at the line of scrimmage and is excellent in run support. He’s a complete player in every respect, a dominant force at a position that rarely receives media attention.

I’d select Von Miller as my runner-up and give Atkins the bronze. While Aldon Smith gets more attention because of his lofty sack totals, he’s a one-dimensional player. While he’s outstanding at that one dimension, just being a dominant pass rusher only makes him the fourth best defensive player this year. He also disappeared down the stretch, which not coincidentally began when star defensive end Justin Smith went down with a triceps injury.

Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning missed the entire 2011 season, but as soon as he took the field in 2012 he became the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. A quarterback has won this award each of the last four years — Chad Pennington (2008), Tom Brady (2009), Michael Vick (2010), and Matthew Stafford (2011) — and the trend should continue in 2012. Comeback Player of the Year is a two-man race, and there’s no wrong answer when choosing between Manning and Peterson. If the voters could, surely the majority would pick that Manning and Peterson split the award. If ever an award called for a split, this was it.

Peyton Manning’s neck injury was considered career-threatening this time last year. Many questioned his arm strength in the pre-season and in September, but by the end of the year he was once again the best quarterback in the league. It’s simply splitting hairs picking between Manning and Peterson, who tore two ligaments in his knee just over a year ago and rebounded to rush for 2,000 yards. And let’s at least recognize Jamaal Charles, who in any other year would likely take home the award. The Kansas City running back tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last season, and rebounded to rush for over 1,500 yards in 2012. My guess is that those voters looking for a tiebreaker focus on the fact that Manning missed the entire 2011 season while Peterson ran for 970 yards and 12 touchdowns last year, making Manning more of a “comeback” story.

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