Guest Post: 4th Quarter Comeback Percentage

Chase Stuart — Fri, 28 Jun 2019 12:00:29 +0000

Today’s guest post comes from one of the longest followers of this blog (and its predecessor), Richie Wohlers. Richie is 44-year-old accountant from Southern California who is a Dolphins fan despite never being to Florida. As always, we thank our guest posters for contributing.

One of the stereotypical traits of a great quarterback is to be able to rescue his team from certain defeat in the fourth quarter by leading his team to a come-from-behind win. Thanks to the awesome work of Scott Kacsmar, we now have definitions for what it means to have a “4th quarter comeback”.

I began watching football in the early ’80s, and for most of the late ’80s and early ’90s I had heard that Dan Marino and John Elway were battling for the title of most 4th quarter comebacks (4QC). You can run a query on Pro Football Reference and see that when Elway retired, he was tied with Marino for most 4QC. Marino picked up 2 more 4QC after Elway retired and then Marino retired as the all-time leader in the regular season.

In this game in 2009, Peyton Manning recorded his 34th 4QC to become the new all-time leader. Entering the 4th quarter trailing by 3 points and scoring the winning touchdown with 5:23 left isn’t the most exciting of comebacks, but it counts, nonetheless.

Manning remains the leader with 8 more 4QC than Tom Brady and 9 more than Drew Brees.

I was a Dan Marino fan, and always loved when he was listed at the top of the unofficial leaderboard for 4QC, but it felt a little hollow to me. Joe Montana also had a lot of comebacks, but it seemed to me that his team trailed in 4th quarter far less often than Marino’s teams. This meant that Marino had far more chances to rack up his 4QC than did Montana. In fact, Marino’s teams lost almost twice as many games during his career as Montana.

So which QB’s have had the best success rate for 4QC given the number of chances they had?

In order to figure out the 4th Quarter Comeback Percentage (CB%), I am dividing the number of successful 4QC by the number of opportunities. By Kacsmar’s definition, a QB can only earn a comeback if the team trailed or was tied at some point in the fourth quarter, and some type of offensive scoring drive put points on the board in the 4th quarter while the team trailed by one possession or were tied and of course the team had to win the game.

I calculated a 4QC opportunity as the sum of all of a quarterback’s losses, plus all his ties, plus all his successful comebacks. There is a little bit of slop in these numbers for a few reasons.

A QB’s W-L-T record on PFR is based on games started, so if a QB came on in relief and trailed in the 4th quarter but did not get a 4QC it will not count as a failed opportunity for him. Likewise, if he does get a 4QC, PFR still won’t credit him with a win.

If the defense scored the winning points it would not be a 4QC and would also not count as a failed opportunity.

If a team never trailed in the 4th quarter, but the game ended up as a tie, this would have never been an opportunity to earn a 4QC for the QB.

I think the 25 points by Neil Lomax was the largest 4th quarter comeback in history. So, any deficit of more than 25 would be nearly impossible, but it will still count as a failed opportunity. I’m fine with that, because any team trailing by more than 25 points probably got there because the QB wasn’t playing well to begin with.

There are probably a few other exceptions, but this should still create a reasonable approximation of 4QC success rate. The denominator is therefore (QB Losses + QB Ties + Successful 4th Quarter Comebacks). The numerator is Successful 4th Quarter comebacks plus QB Ties divided by 2, so a quarterback gets half-credit for each tie.

On average, these quarterbacks have a 19% success rate. The table below shows every QB who has had at least 5 opportunities for 4QC since the merger (including pre-merger stats for quarterbacks who played after the merger, but only back to 1960 for Len Dawson, John Brodie).

The final column shows how each quarterback fared relative to the average 19% success rate. Let’s use Peyton Manning as an example. He had 79 career losses, 0 ties, and 43 successful 4th quarter comebacks: therefore, he had 122 opportunities. Given the 19% success rate for the average quarterback, we would expect an average quarterback to have 23.1 successful comebacks. Instead, Manning has 43, or 19.9 more than expected. That’s the most of any quarterback; his father has the fewest.

Player	From	To	G	GS	W	L	T	4QC	Opps	CB%	4QC Above Average
Peyton Manning	1998	2015	266	265	186	79	0	43	122	35%	19.9
Tom Brady	2000	2018	269	267	207	60	0	35	95	37%	17
Johnny Unitas	1956	1973	211	185	118	63	4	34	101	36%	16.9
Daryle Lamonica	1963	1974	151	88	66	16	6	18	40	53%	13.4
Ben Roethlisberger	2004	2018	216	214	144	69	1	31	101	31%	12.4
Joe Montana	1979	1994	192	164	117	47	0	26	73	36%	12.2
Tony Romo	2004	2016	156	127	78	49	0	24	73	33%	10.2
John Elway	1983	1998	234	231	148	82	1	31	114	28%	9.9
Dan Marino	1983	1999	242	240	147	93	0	33	126	26%	9.2
Matt Ryan	2008	2018	174	174	102	72	0	27	99	27%	8.3
Jake Delhomme	1999	2011	103	96	56	40	0	19	59	32%	7.8
Andy Dalton	2011	2018	120	120	68	50	2	20	72	29%	7.4
Russell Wilson	2012	2018	112	112	75	36	1	17	54	32%	7.3
Drew Brees	2001	2018	264	263	155	108	0	34	142	24%	7.1
Charley Johnson	1961	1975	165	124	59	57	8	19	84	27%	7.1
Matthew Stafford	2009	2018	141	141	66	75	0	26	101	26%	6.9
Andrew Luck	2012	2018	86	86	53	33	0	16	49	33%	6.7
Doug Williams	1978	1989	88	81	38	42	1	17	60	29%	6.1
Randall Cunningham	1985	2001	161	135	82	52	1	19	72	27%	5.9
Jim Kelly	1986	1996	160	160	101	59	0	21	80	26%	5.9
Jay Schroeder	1985	1994	118	99	61	38	0	16	54	30%	5.8
Joe Theismann	1974	1985	167	124	77	47	0	18	65	28%	5.7
Bart Starr	1956	1971	196	157	94	57	6	18	81	26%	5.7
Earl Morrall	1956	1976	255	102	63	36	3	14	53	29%	5.5
John Brodie	1957	1973	201	158	74	76	8	21	105	24%	5.1
Roger Staubach	1969	1979	131	114	85	29	0	13	42	31%	5.1
Fran Tarkenton	1961	1978	246	239	124	109	6	29	144	22%	4.8
Don Strock	1974	1988	167	22	16	6	0	7	13	54%	4.5
Mike Phipps	1970	1981	119	71	38	31	2	12	45	29%	4.5
Derek Carr	2014	2018	78	78	32	46	0	16	62	26%	4.3
Dave Krieg	1980	1998	213	175	98	77	0	23	100	23%	4.1
Philip Rivers	2004	2018	212	208	118	90	0	26	116	22%	4.1
Ken Stabler	1970	1984	184	146	96	49	1	16	66	25%	4
Len Dawson	1957	1975	211	159	94	57	8	15	80	24%	3.9
Tim Tebow	2010	2012	35	16	8	6	0	6	12	50%	3.7
Jay Cutler	2006	2017	153	153	74	79	0	23	102	23%	3.7
Neil O'Donnell	1991	2003	125	100	55	45	0	15	60	25%	3.6
Jake Plummer	1997	2006	143	136	69	67	0	20	87	23%	3.5
Ryan Tannehill	2012	2018	88	88	42	46	0	15	61	25%	3.5
Dak Prescott	2016	2018	48	48	32	16	0	8	24	33%	3.5
Brian Sipe	1974	1983	125	112	57	55	0	17	72	24%	3.4
Sonny Jurgensen	1957	1974	218	147	69	71	7	18	96	22%	3.3
Jim McMahon	1982	1996	119	97	67	30	0	11	41	27%	3.2
Danny White	1976	1988	166	92	62	30	0	11	41	27%	3.2
John Skelton	2010	2012	20	17	8	9	0	6	15	40%	3.2
Nick Foles	2012	2018	54	44	26	18	0	8	26	31%	3.1
Roman Gabriel	1962	1977	183	157	86	64	7	16	87	22%	3
Don Majkowski	1987	1996	90	57	26	30	1	10	41	26%	2.7
Damon Huard	1998	2008	64	27	15	12	0	6	18	33%	2.6
Deshaun Watson	2017	2018	23	22	14	8	0	5	13	38%	2.5
Terry Bradshaw	1970	1983	168	158	107	51	0	15	66	23%	2.5
Kent Graham	1992	2001	81	38	17	21	0	8	29	28%	2.5
Bob Griese	1967	1980	161	151	92	56	3	15	74	22%	2.5
Matt Flynn	2008	2014	53	7	3	4	0	4	8	50%	2.5
Cam Newton	2011	2018	123	122	68	53	1	15	69	22%	2.4
Jack Trudeau	1986	1995	67	49	19	30	0	10	40	25%	2.4
Alex Smith	2005	2018	166	161	94	66	1	18	85	22%	2.4
Scott Hunter	1971	1979	64	42	21	18	3	6	27	28%	2.4
Rich Gannon	1987	2004	157	132	76	56	0	16	72	22%	2.4
Jeff Rutledge	1979	1992	117	10	2	7	1	4	12	38%	2.2
Steve Bono	1985	1999	88	42	28	14	0	6	20	30%	2.2
Bruce Gradkowski	2006	2014	37	20	6	14	0	6	20	30%	2.2
Jay Fiedler	1995	2005	76	60	37	23	0	8	31	26%	2.1
Erik Kramer	1987	1999	83	67	31	36	0	11	47	23%	2.1
Drew Stanton	2008	2017	38	17	11	6	0	4	10	40%	2.1
Vince Young	2006	2011	60	50	31	19	0	7	26	27%	2.1
Jimmy Garoppolo	2014	2018	26	10	8	2	0	3	5	60%	2.1
Michael Vick	2001	2015	143	115	61	51	1	14	66	22%	2
Marc Wilson	1980	1990	126	60	32	28	0	9	37	24%	2
Marcus Mariota	2015	2018	56	55	27	28	0	9	37	24%	2
Joe Flacco	2008	2018	163	163	96	67	0	18	85	21%	1.9
James Harris	1969	1979	83	41	25	16	0	6	22	27%	1.8
Billy Kilmer	1961	1978	170	125	61	52	1	14	67	22%	1.8
Jim Miller	1995	2002	37	27	15	12	0	5	17	29%	1.8
Steve Bartkowski	1975	1986	129	127	59	68	0	18	86	21%	1.7
Cody Carlson	1988	1994	45	19	11	8	0	4	12	33%	1.7
Jamie Martin	1996	2007	53	8	4	4	0	3	7	43%	1.7
Charlie Batch	1998	2012	81	55	25	30	0	9	39	23%	1.6
Bill Munson	1964	1979	107	66	27	34	5	8	47	22%	1.6
Tommy Kramer	1977	1990	129	110	54	56	0	15	71	21%	1.6
Donovan McNabb	1999	2011	167	161	98	62	1	16	79	21%	1.6
Bill Nelsen	1963	1972	90	74	40	31	3	8	42	23%	1.6
Brett Favre	1991	2010	302	298	186	112	0	28	140	20%	1.5
Carson Palmer	2004	2017	182	181	92	88	1	22	111	20%	1.5
Drew Bledsoe	1993	2006	194	193	98	95	0	24	119	20%	1.5
Joe Namath	1965	1977	140	129	62	63	4	15	82	21%	1.5
Turk Schonert	1981	1989	72	12	7	5	0	3	8	38%	1.5
Dan Fouts	1973	1987	181	171	86	84	1	21	106	20%	1.4
Bernie Kosar	1985	1996	126	108	53	54	1	14	69	21%	1.4
Jared Goff	2016	2018	38	38	24	14	0	5	19	26%	1.4
Ty Detmer	1993	2003	54	25	11	14	0	5	19	26%	1.4
Trent Green	1997	2008	120	113	56	57	0	15	72	21%	1.4
Shaun King	1999	2004	34	24	14	10	0	4	14	29%	1.4
Brad Johnson	1994	2008	177	125	72	53	0	14	67	21%	1.3
Tony Eason	1983	1990	90	51	28	23	0	7	30	23%	1.3
Jeff Kemp	1981	1991	96	29	16	12	1	4	17	26%	1.3
Steve Young	1985	1999	169	143	94	49	0	13	62	21%	1.3
Brock Osweiler	2012	2018	49	30	15	15	0	5	20	25%	1.2
Matt Moore	2007	2017	49	30	15	15	0	5	20	25%	1.2
Doug Flutie	1986	2005	92	66	38	28	0	8	36	22%	1.2
Warren Moon	1984	2000	208	203	102	101	0	25	126	20%	1.2
Cliff Stoudt	1980	1989	66	20	9	11	0	4	15	27%	1.2
Jim Hart	1966	1984	201	180	87	88	5	20	113	20%	1.1
David Garrard	2002	2010	86	76	39	37	0	10	47	21%	1.1
Tim Couch	1999	2003	62	59	22	37	0	10	47	21%	1.1
Ray Lucas	1996	2002	55	15	8	7	0	3	10	30%	1.1
Baker Mayfield	2018	2018	14	13	6	7	0	3	10	30%	1.1
Tom Savage	2014	2017	13	9	2	7	0	3	10	30%	1.1
Ron Jaworski	1974	1989	188	143	73	69	1	17	87	20%	1
Bobby Hoying	1996	2000	22	13	3	9	1	3	13	27%	1
Quincy Carter	2001	2004	38	34	18	16	0	5	21	24%	1
Jim Plunkett	1971	1986	157	144	72	72	0	18	90	20%	1
Teddy Bridgewater	2014	2018	35	29	17	12	0	4	16	25%	1
Kevin Kolb	2007	2012	34	21	9	12	0	4	16	25%	1
Trent Dilfer	1994	2007	130	113	58	55	0	14	69	20%	0.9
John Friesz	1990	2000	69	38	13	25	0	7	32	22%	0.9
Kirk Cousins	2012	2018	78	73	34	37	2	9	48	21%	0.9
Brian Hoyer	2009	2018	65	37	16	21	0	6	27	22%	0.9
Aaron Rodgers	2005	2018	165	158	100	57	1	14	72	20%	0.9
Kordell Stewart	1995	2005	125	87	48	34	0	9	43	21%	0.9
Patrick Mahomes	2017	2018	17	17	13	4	0	2	6	33%	0.9
Dieter Brock	1985	1985	15	15	11	4	0	2	6	33%	0.9
John Fourcade	1987	1990	24	11	7	4	0	2	6	33%	0.9
Donald Hollas	1991	1998	32	8	4	4	0	2	6	33%	0.9
Elvis Grbac	1994	2001	105	70	40	30	0	8	38	21%	0.8
John Hadl	1962	1977	224	166	82	75	9	15	99	20%	0.8
Pat Haden	1976	1981	65	55	35	19	1	5	25	22%	0.8
Byron Leftwich	2003	2012	60	50	24	26	0	7	33	21%	0.8
Chris Simms	2004	2009	23	16	7	9	0	3	12	25%	0.7
Rex Grossman	2003	2012	54	47	25	22	0	6	28	21%	0.7
Stan Humphries	1989	1997	88	81	50	31	0	8	39	21%	0.6
Mark Rypien	1988	2001	104	78	47	31	0	8	39	21%	0.6
Jon Kitna	1997	2011	141	124	50	74	0	18	92	20%	0.6
Bobby Hebert	1985	1996	118	100	56	44	0	11	55	20%	0.6
Bob Avellini	1975	1984	73	50	23	27	0	7	34	21%	0.6
Vinny Testaverde	1987	2007	233	214	90	123	1	29	153	19%	0.6
Todd Collins	1995	2010	50	21	11	10	0	3	13	23%	0.5
A.J. Feeley	2001	2011	28	18	8	10	0	3	13	23%	0.5
Steve Fuller	1979	1986	90	42	19	23	0	6	29	21%	0.5
Josh Freeman	2009	2015	62	61	25	36	0	9	45	20%	0.5
Sage Rosenfels	2002	2010	44	12	6	6	0	2	8	25%	0.5
Josh Allen	2018	2018	12	11	5	6	0	2	8	25%	0.5
Danny Wuerffel	1997	2002	25	10	4	6	0	2	8	25%	0.5
T.J. Yates	2011	2017	22	10	4	6	0	2	8	25%	0.5
Brett Hundley	2016	2017	15	9	3	6	0	2	8	25%	0.5
Steve McNair	1995	2007	161	153	91	62	0	15	77	19%	0.4
Jeff Hostetler	1985	1997	152	83	51	32	0	8	40	20%	0.4
Matt Schaub	2004	2018	148	92	47	45	0	11	56	20%	0.4
Dennis Shaw	1970	1975	50	37	8	27	2	6	35	20%	0.4
Trevor Siemian	2015	2017	26	24	13	11	0	3	14	21%	0.4
Shane Matthews	1996	2004	31	22	11	11	0	3	14	21%	0.4
Anthony Wright	2000	2007	31	19	8	11	0	3	14	21%	0.4
Matt Cavanaugh	1979	1991	112	19	8	11	0	3	14	21%	0.4
Mike McMahon	2001	2005	29	14	3	11	0	3	14	21%	0.4
Eli Manning	2004	2018	232	230	116	114	0	27	141	19%	0.3
Billy Volek	2001	2011	39	10	3	7	0	2	9	22%	0.3
Paul Justin	1995	1999	34	10	3	7	0	2	9	22%	0.3
Glenn Foley	1994	1999	21	9	2	7	0	2	9	22%	0.3
David Archer	1984	1989	55	23	9	13	1	3	17	21%	0.3
Terry Hanratty	1969	1976	50	18	6	12	0	3	15	20%	0.2
Steve Beuerlein	1988	2003	147	102	47	55	0	13	68	19%	0.1
Brian Griese	1998	2008	93	83	44	38	0	9	47	19%	0.1
Bubby Brister	1986	2000	99	75	37	38	0	9	47	19%	0.1
Pat Ryan	1978	1991	145	19	11	8	0	2	10	20%	0.1
Chris Redman	2000	2011	31	12	4	8	0	2	10	20%	0.1
Brooks Bollinger	2004	2008	21	10	2	8	0	2	10	20%	0.1
Carson Wentz	2016	2018	40	40	23	17	0	4	21	19%	0
Rob Johnson	1995	2003	48	29	12	17	0	4	21	19%	0
Colin Kaepernick	2011	2016	69	58	28	30	0	7	37	19%	0
Edd Hargett	1969	1973	43	8	1	6	1	1	8	19%	0
Paul McDonald	1980	1986	85	21	8	13	0	3	16	19%	0
Doug Johnson	2000	2004	25	11	2	9	0	2	11	18%	-0.1
Pete Liske	1964	1972	48	29	13	15	1	3	19	18%	-0.1
Aaron Brooks	2000	2006	93	90	38	52	0	12	64	19%	-0.1
Tom Owen	1974	1981	26	9	4	5	0	1	6	17%	-0.1
Steve Walsh	1989	1999	80	38	20	18	0	4	22	18%	-0.2
Shaun Hill	2005	2016	49	35	17	18	0	4	22	18%	-0.2
Scott Brunner	1980	1985	73	30	12	18	0	4	22	18%	-0.2
Dan Pastorini	1971	1983	140	117	56	61	0	14	75	19%	-0.2
Heath Shuler	1994	1997	29	22	8	14	0	3	17	18%	-0.2
Matt Leinart	2006	2012	33	18	8	10	0	2	12	17%	-0.3
Bobby Scott	1973	1981	41	14	4	10	0	2	12	17%	-0.3
Neil Lomax	1981	1988	108	101	47	52	2	11	65	18%	-0.3
Ken O'Brien	1984	1993	129	110	50	59	1	13	73	18%	-0.3
Mark Sanchez	2009	2018	79	73	37	36	0	8	44	18%	-0.3
Bob Gagliano	1982	1992	32	13	7	6	0	1	7	14%	-0.3
Sean Salisbury	1987	1996	40	12	6	6	0	1	7	14%	-0.3
Mike Moroski	1979	1986	69	9	3	6	0	1	7	14%	-0.3
Oliver Luck	1983	1986	20	9	3	6	0	1	7	14%	-0.3
Gary Hogeboom	1980	1989	79	37	18	19	0	4	23	17%	-0.4
Gary Cuozzo	1963	1972	82	40	21	19	0	4	23	17%	-0.4
Trent Edwards	2007	2012	38	33	14	19	0	4	23	17%	-0.4
Tyrod Taylor	2011	2018	62	46	23	21	1	4	26	17%	-0.4
Case Keenum	2012	2018	57	54	26	28	0	6	34	18%	-0.4
Gifford Nielsen	1978	1983	55	14	3	11	0	2	13	15%	-0.5
Scott Campbell	1984	1990	45	13	2	11	0	2	13	15%	-0.5
Marc Bulger	2002	2009	96	95	41	54	0	12	66	18%	-0.5
Austin Davis	2012	2017	16	10	3	7	0	1	8	13%	-0.5
Bruce Mathison	1983	1987	18	9	2	7	0	1	8	13%	-0.5
Charlie Whitehurst	2006	2016	26	9	2	7	0	1	8	13%	-0.5
Ed Luther	1980	1984	61	9	2	7	0	1	8	13%	-0.5
Cleo Lemon	2005	2008	16	8	1	7	0	1	8	13%	-0.5
Steve DeBerg	1978	1998	206	140	53	86	1	19	106	18%	-0.6
Kelly Holcomb	1997	2007	37	24	8	16	0	3	19	16%	-0.6
Mike Glennon	2013	2018	27	22	6	16	0	3	19	16%	-0.6
Rodney Peete	1989	2004	104	87	45	42	0	9	51	18%	-0.6
Craig Whelihan	1997	1998	19	14	2	12	0	2	14	14%	-0.6
David Woodley	1980	1985	58	53	34	18	1	3	22	16%	-0.7
Eric Zeier	1995	2000	28	12	4	8	0	1	9	11%	-0.7
Alex Van Pelt	1995	2003	31	11	3	8	0	1	9	11%	-0.7
Bill Troup	1974	1980	43	11	3	8	0	1	9	11%	-0.7
Luke McCown	2004	2015	62	10	2	8	0	1	9	11%	-0.7
Tarvaris Jackson	2006	2015	59	34	17	17	0	3	20	15%	-0.8
Steve Ramsey	1970	1976	54	31	14	17	0	3	20	15%	-0.8
Steve Grogan	1975	1990	149	135	75	60	0	13	73	18%	-0.8
Mark Brunell	1994	2011	193	151	78	73	0	16	89	18%	-0.8
Vince Ferragamo	1977	1986	75	53	27	26	0	5	31	16%	-0.9
Sam Darnold	2018	2018	13	13	4	9	0	1	10	10%	-0.9
Tom Tupa	1988	2004	220	13	4	9	0	1	10	10%	-0.9
Mark Herrmann	1982	1992	40	12	3	9	0	1	10	10%	-0.9
Blaine Gabbert	2011	2018	56	48	13	35	0	7	42	17%	-0.9
Hugh Millen	1987	1995	40	25	7	18	0	3	21	14%	-1
JaMarcus Russell	2007	2009	31	25	7	18	0	3	21	14%	-1
Mike Tomczak	1985	1999	185	73	42	31	0	6	37	16%	-1
Todd Blackledge	1983	1989	46	29	15	14	0	2	16	13%	-1
Kyle Orton	2005	2014	87	82	42	40	0	8	48	17%	-1.1
Matt Robinson	1977	1982	69	20	10	10	0	1	11	9%	-1.1
Joe Reed	1972	1979	50	19	9	10	0	1	11	9%	-1.1
Josh Rosen	2018	2018	14	13	3	10	0	1	11	9%	-1.1
Dan Orlovsky	2005	2015	27	12	2	10	0	1	11	9%	-1.1
Geno Smith	2013	2018	40	31	12	19	0	3	22	14%	-1.2
Joe Ferguson	1973	1990	186	171	79	92	0	20	112	18%	-1.2
Matt Cassel	2005	2018	108	81	36	45	0	9	54	17%	-1.2
Frank Reich	1985	1998	118	20	5	15	0	2	17	12%	-1.2
Lynn Dickey	1971	1985	152	111	45	63	3	12	78	17%	-1.3
Troy Aikman	1989	2000	165	165	94	71	0	15	86	17%	-1.3
Bob Lee	1969	1980	63	30	19	11	0	1	12	8%	-1.3
Mitchell Trubisky	2017	2018	26	26	15	11	0	1	12	8%	-1.3
Mike Boryla	1974	1978	23	19	8	11	0	1	12	8%	-1.3
Chad Hutchinson	2002	2004	15	14	3	11	0	1	12	8%	-1.3
Stan Gelbaugh	1989	1996	20	12	1	11	0	1	12	8%	-1.3
Bob Berry	1965	1975	78	52	20	29	3	4	36	15%	-1.3
Chad Pennington	2000	2010	89	81	44	37	0	7	44	16%	-1.3
Danny Kanell	1996	2003	43	24	10	13	1	1	15	10%	-1.3
Marty Domres	1969	1977	90	32	12	20	0	3	23	13%	-1.4
Wade Wilson	1981	1998	125	69	36	33	0	6	39	15%	-1.4
Seneca Wallace	2005	2013	64	22	6	16	0	2	18	11%	-1.4
Derek Anderson	2006	2018	78	49	20	29	0	5	34	15%	-1.4
EJ Manuel	2013	2017	30	18	6	12	0	1	13	8%	-1.5
Robert Griffin	2012	2018	45	40	15	25	0	4	29	14%	-1.5
Gary Danielson	1976	1988	101	60	28	31	1	5	37	15%	-1.5
Jack Thompson	1979	1984	51	21	4	17	0	2	19	11%	-1.6
Ryan Leaf	1998	2001	25	21	4	17	0	2	19	11%	-1.6
Mike Pagel	1982	1993	132	54	17	36	1	6	43	15%	-1.6
Kellen Clemens	2006	2017	64	21	8	13	0	1	14	7%	-1.6
Tim Rattay	2000	2007	40	18	5	13	0	1	14	7%	-1.6
John Reaves	1972	1987	51	17	4	13	0	1	14	7%	-1.6
Craig Morton	1965	1982	207	144	81	62	1	12	75	17%	-1.7
Kerry Collins	1995	2011	198	180	81	99	0	21	120	18%	-1.7
Tony Adams	1975	1987	53	10	1	9	0	0	9	0%	-1.7
Jeff Blake	1992	2005	119	100	39	61	0	12	73	16%	-1.8
Jim Harbaugh	1987	2000	177	140	66	74	0	15	89	17%	-1.8
Rick Mirer	1993	2003	80	68	24	44	0	8	52	15%	-1.8
Jake Locker	2011	2014	30	23	9	14	0	1	15	7%	-1.8
Al Woodall	1969	1974	27	19	5	14	0	1	15	7%	-1.8
Akili Smith	1999	2002	22	17	3	14	0	1	15	7%	-1.8
Doug Pederson	1993	2004	100	17	3	14	0	1	15	7%	-1.8
Jeff Komlo	1979	1983	25	16	2	14	0	1	15	7%	-1.8
David Whitehurst	1977	1983	54	37	16	20	1	2	23	11%	-1.9
Tommy Maddox	1992	2005	92	36	15	20	1	2	23	11%	-1.9
Steve Pelluer	1984	1990	65	30	9	20	1	2	23	11%	-1.9
Kyle Boller	2003	2011	67	47	20	27	0	4	31	13%	-1.9
Browning Nagle	1991	1996	24	14	4	10	0	0	10	0%	-1.9
J.P. Losman	2004	2011	45	33	10	23	0	3	26	12%	-1.9
Dave Wilson	1981	1988	53	31	12	19	0	2	21	10%	-2
Brandon Weeden	2012	2018	35	25	6	19	0	2	21	10%	-2
Billy Joe Tolliver	1989	1999	79	47	15	32	0	5	37	14%	-2
Matt Hasselbeck	1999	2015	209	160	85	75	0	15	90	17%	-2
Timm Rosenbach	1989	1992	26	20	5	15	0	1	16	6%	-2
Christian Ponder	2011	2014	38	36	14	21	1	2	24	10%	-2
Jeff Garcia	1999	2009	125	116	58	58	0	11	69	16%	-2.1
Ken Dorsey	2004	2008	17	13	2	11	0	0	11	0%	-2.1
Tyler Thigpen	2007	2014	29	12	1	11	0	0	11	0%	-2.1
Gus Frerotte	1994	2008	147	93	45	47	1	8	56	15%	-2.1
Colt McCoy	2010	2018	38	27	7	20	0	2	22	9%	-2.2
Boomer Esiason	1984	1997	187	173	80	93	0	19	112	17%	-2.2
Jameis Winston	2015	2018	56	54	21	33	0	5	38	13%	-2.2
Charlie Frye	2005	2009	26	23	7	16	0	1	17	6%	-2.2
Brady Quinn	2007	2012	24	20	4	16	0	1	17	6%	-2.2
Greg Landry	1968	1984	146	98	44	51	3	8	62	15%	-2.2
Daunte Culpepper	1999	2009	105	100	41	59	0	11	70	16%	-2.2
Eric Hipple	1980	1989	102	57	28	29	0	4	33	12%	-2.2
Jacoby Brissett	2016	2018	23	17	5	12	0	0	12	0%	-2.3
Cade McNown	1999	2000	25	15	3	12	0	0	12	0%	-2.3
Vince Evans	1977	1995	100	39	14	25	0	3	28	11%	-2.3
Craig Erickson	1992	1997	52	36	14	21	0	2	23	9%	-2.4
Steve Dils	1979	1988	106	27	10	17	0	1	18	6%	-2.4
Mark Malone	1980	1989	73	54	23	30	0	4	34	12%	-2.4
Billy Joe Hobert	1995	1999	29	17	4	13	0	0	13	0%	-2.5
Jimmy Clausen	2010	2015	22	14	1	13	0	0	13	0%	-2.5
Scott Mitchell	1991	2001	99	71	32	39	0	6	45	13%	-2.5
Chris Weinke	2001	2007	29	20	2	18	0	1	19	5%	-2.6
Steve Spurrier	1967	1976	106	38	13	24	1	2	27	9%	-2.6
Patrick Ramsey	2002	2008	37	24	10	14	0	0	14	0%	-2.6
Bert Jones	1973	1982	102	96	47	49	0	8	57	14%	-2.8
Mike Livingston	1968	1979	91	75	31	43	1	6	50	13%	-3
David Klingler	1992	1997	33	24	4	20	0	1	21	5%	-3
Sam Bradford	2010	2018	83	83	34	48	1	7	56	13%	-3.1
Gary Huff	1973	1978	57	28	7	21	0	1	22	5%	-3.2
Phil Simms	1979	1993	164	159	95	64	0	11	75	15%	-3.2
Jason Campbell	2006	2014	90	79	32	47	0	7	54	13%	-3.2
Chuck Long	1986	1991	27	21	4	17	0	0	17	0%	-3.2
Chad Henne	2008	2018	68	53	18	35	0	4	39	10%	-3.4
Richard Todd	1976	1985	119	108	48	59	1	9	69	14%	-3.6
Kurt Warner	1998	2009	124	116	67	49	0	7	56	13%	-3.6
Randy Wright	1984	1988	46	32	7	25	0	1	26	4%	-3.9
Joe Pisarcik	1977	1984	61	30	9	21	0	0	21	0%	-4
Bobby Douglass	1969	1978	91	53	16	36	1	3	40	9%	-4.1
Tony Banks	1996	2005	96	78	35	43	0	5	48	10%	-4.1
Blake Bortles	2014	2018	75	73	24	49	0	6	55	11%	-4.4
Jim Zorn	1976	1987	140	106	44	62	0	9	71	13%	-4.4
Chris Miller	1987	1999	98	92	34	58	0	8	66	12%	-4.5
Joey Harrington	2002	2007	81	76	26	50	0	6	56	11%	-4.6
Dave Brown	1992	2001	73	60	26	34	0	2	36	6%	-4.8
David Carr	2002	2012	94	79	23	56	0	7	63	11%	-4.9
Josh McCown	2002	2018	99	76	23	53	0	6	59	10%	-5.2
Randy Johnson	1966	1976	75	49	10	38	1	2	41	6%	-5.3
Norm Snead	1961	1976	178	159	52	100	7	14	121	14%	-5.4
Bill Kenney	1980	1988	106	77	34	43	0	3	46	7%	-5.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	2005	2018	141	126	50	75	1	9	85	11%	-6.6
Ken Anderson	1971	1986	192	172	91	81	0	10	91	11%	-7.2
Jim Everett	1986	1997	158	153	64	89	0	11	100	11%	-7.9
Chris Chandler	1988	2004	180	152	67	85	0	10	95	11%	-8
Jeff George	1990	2001	131	124	46	78	0	8	86	9%	-8.3
Archie Manning	1971	1984	151	139	35	101	3	11	115	11%	-9.3

Notes:

Matt Flynn has 3 wins as a starter, and all 3 were 4QC. He is also credited with a 4QC in a game that ended in a tie, that he didn’t start. I don’t know if that was an error, or if Kacsmar/PFR has removed the requirement that a game end in a victory.
Don Strock’s percentage looks good, but that’s because 6 of his 7 4QC were in relief. His only 4QC in a game he started, was also the last game he played in his career. Strock played in 145 games in relief, so his opportunities are artificially low.
The 4 QB’s who are generally considered to be the best ever (Brady, Montana, Manning and Unitas) are the top 4 in CB% among QB’s with at least 100 starts.
Roger “Captain Comeback” Staubach ranks 8^th at 31% among quarterbacks with 100+ starts.
Speaking of Cowboys, Dak Prescott (33%) and Tony Romo (33%) have slightly higher success rates than Staubach.
The league average is a CB% of 19%.
Vinny Testaverde has the most Opps (153), but an average CB% of 19%.
Joe Pisarcik has the most Opps (21) without a 4QC.
Among QB’s with at least 100 starts, Jeff George has the lowest CB% (9%).

Checkdowns: Biggest failed comebacks

Chase Stuart — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 04:06:44 +0000

Brady joins Marino on the failed comebacks list.

[UPDATE: There was an error earlier in this post. I believe it is fixed now.]

On Sunday Night, the Patriots trailed 31-3 halfway through the third quarter. But that’s when Tom Brady got hot, and New England tied the game with 6:43 left in the 4th quarter. At that moment, many fans probably had visions of the Oilers-Bills playoff game, where Buffalo came back from a 32-point deficit to win.

And while there are a lot of famous comebacks, the failed comeback is much less memorable. But in fact, this was the 4th time a team trailed by 28 points in the game only to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter… but ultimately lose.

The table below shows all games prior to 2012 where a team trailed by at least 21 points, was trailing entering the 4th quarter, came back to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter, but then still lost. The table is listed from the perspective of the eventual winner and shows the final points for and points allowed in the game, along with the biggest lead and the largest fourth-quarter deficit the winning team faced despite the large early lead.

Year	Date	Boxscore	Tm	Opp	PF	PA	BgLd	Def
1994	09/25/1994	Boxscore	MIN	MIA	38	35	28	0
1944	09/24/1944	Boxscore	GNB	CHI	42	28	28	0
2007	10/21/2007	Boxscore	TEN	HOU	38	36	25	-1
2004	12/12/2004	Boxscore	SFO	ARI	31	28	25	0
1980	12/07/1980	Boxscore	CIN	BAL	34	33	25	-2
1987	10/25/1987	Boxscore	GNB	DET	34	33	24	-2
1981	01/02/1982	Boxscore	SDG	MIA	41	38	24	-7
1996	09/22/1996	Boxscore	NWE	JAX	28	25	22	0
2010	12/13/2010	Boxscore	BAL	HOU	34	28	21	0
2009	10/11/2009	Boxscore	ARI	HOU	28	21	21	0
2009	01/10/2010	Boxscore	ARI	GNB	51	45	21	0
2009	01/10/2010	Boxscore	ARI	GNB	51	45	21	0
2008	09/14/2008	Boxscore	GNB	DET	48	25	21	-1
2006	12/17/2006	Boxscore	CHI	TAM	34	31	21	0
2004	10/10/2004	Boxscore	MIN	HOU	34	28	21	0
2003	11/30/2003	Boxscore	NWE	IND	38	34	21	0
1999	12/12/1999	Boxscore	KAN	MIN	31	28	21	0
1998	12/06/1998	Boxscore	SFO	CAR	31	28	21	0
1995	11/19/1995	Boxscore	DEN	SDG	30	27	21	0
1993	09/12/1993	Boxscore	NOR	ATL	34	31	21	0
1993	01/03/1994	Boxscore	PHI	SFO	37	34	21	0
1991	11/17/1991	Boxscore	NYJ	NWE	28	21	21	0
1990	10/07/1990	Boxscore	CIN	RAM	34	31	21	0
1990	10/07/1990	Boxscore	CIN	RAM	34	31	21	0
1989	09/10/1989	Boxscore	NWE	NYJ	27	24	21	-3
1986	11/20/1986	Boxscore	RAI	SDG	37	31	21	0
1983	01/08/1984	Boxscore	WAS	SFO	24	21	21	0
1980	11/23/1980	Boxscore	NYJ	HOU	31	28	21	0
1980	11/23/1980	Boxscore	NYJ	HOU	31	28	21	0
1979	09/09/1979	Boxscore	WAS	DET	27	24	21	0
1975	11/30/1975	Boxscore	WAS	MIN	31	30	21	-6
1960	11/06/1960	Boxscore	BAL	GNB	38	24	21	0
1949	10/23/1949	Boxscore	NYG	CHI	35	28	21	0
1945	11/04/1945	Boxscore	WAS	CRD	24	21	21	0

Note that this excludes games this game between Green Bay and Pittsburgh from 1951, where the Packers held a 28-point lead and won, but actually trailed entering the 4th quarter.

Comebacks – FootballPerspective.com

Guest Post: 4th Quarter Comeback Percentage

Checkdowns: Biggest failed comebacks