Calvin Johnson – FootballPerspective.com

Calvin Johnson Played On Some Of The Most Pass-Happy Teams In NFL History

Chase Stuart — Mon, 21 Mar 2016 12:46:48 +0000

Farewell to one of the greats

Detroit Lions superstar wide receiver Calvin Johnson has likely retired. He had a pretty incredible six-year peak: Megatron gained 8,548 receiving yards in his last six years, the most by any player during their age 25-30 seasons. I don’t think there’s much of a debate that Johnson is a Hall of Famer, although I do think he’s not quite an inner circle member of the Hall.

The big reason for that is Johnson’s numbers have always been inflated by playing on a pass-happy team. I’ve looked at this before, but (a) those numbers are now two years stale and (b) I want to use a different methodology today. So here’s what I did:

1) Calculate the number of pass attempts per game for each team in every season.

2) For the top 200 players, I then calculated the number of career games for that player.

3) Then, in each season, weight the number of team pass attempts per game by the percentage of games that player played relative to his entire career. For example, Johnson played 11.9% of his career games in 2012, and that year, the Lions threw 46.3 pass attempts per game. Therefore, for Johnson’s career, 46.3 pass attempts per game will be given a weight of 11.9%. Do this for every season of each player’s career, and you will derive the average pass attempts per game for that player.

By this methodology, Megatron has been on the 2nd-most pass-happy offenses among these 200 players. The only player ahead of him is Marques Colston, who ranked 49th in career receiving yards despite never making the Pro Bowl in any season.

Rk	Receiver	First Yr	Last Yr	G	Rec Yds	Att/G	Pass Ratio
1	Marques Colston	2006	2015	146	9759	39.9	117.3%
2	Calvin Johnson	2007	2015	135	11619	38.9	113.8%
3	Julio Jones	2011	2015	65	6201	38.7	110.8%
4	Kellen Winslow	1979	1987	109	6741	37.9	120.5%
5	Demaryius Thomas	2010	2015	85	6621	36.9	105.6%
6	Wes Welker	2005	2015	160	9924	36.4	108.3%
7	Larry Fitzgerald	2004	2015	186	13366	36.4	108.5%
8	Charley Hennigan	1960	1966	95	6823	36.4	113%
9	Reggie Wayne	2001	2014	211	14345	36.3	109.3%
10	Pierre Garcon	2008	2015	116	6027	35.8	104.6%
11	Mark Duper	1983	1992	144	8869	35.7	113.7%
12	Torry Holt	1999	2009	173	13382	35.7	109.1%
13	Mark Clayton	1983	1993	158	8974	35.7	113%
14	Haywood Jeffires	1987	1996	132	6334	35.7	111.8%
15	Wes Chandler	1978	1988	150	8966	35.6	115.3%
16	Antonio Brown	2010	2015	86	7093	35.6	102.1%
17	Dez Bryant	2010	2015	84	5825	35.5	102.3%
18	Donald Driver	1999	2012	205	10137	35.4	107.5%
19	James Jones	2007	2015	136	5861	35.4	103.6%
20	Sammy White	1976	1985	128	6400	35.4	121.1%
21	Jeremy Maclin	2009	2015	90	5859	35.3	102.6%
22	Isaac Bruce	1994	2009	223	15208	35.2	106.9%
23	Deion Branch	2002	2012	140	6644	35.1	106.1%
24	Troy Brown	1993	2006	182	6366	35.1	106.6%
25	DeSean Jackson	2008	2015	112	7814	35.1	102.8%
26	Marty Booker	1999	2009	157	6703	35.0	106.9%
27	Greg Jennings	2006	2015	143	8291	35.0	103.3%
28	Jeremy Shockey	2002	2011	136	6143	34.8	106%
29	Ernest Givins	1986	1995	147	8215	34.8	109.8%
30	Sterling Sharpe	1988	1994	112	8134	34.8	110.5%
31	Larry Centers	1991	2003	192	6797	34.8	106.1%
32	Dwight Clark	1979	1987	134	6750	34.7	110.9%
33	Jake Reed	1992	2002	154	6999	34.7	105.2%
34	Roddy White	2005	2015	171	10863	34.6	102.3%
35	Marvin Harrison	1996	2008	190	14580	34.6	105.9%
36	Webster Slaughter	1986	1998	162	8111	34.5	107.7%
37	Antonio Freeman	1995	2003	132	7251	34.5	104.1%
38	Chad Johnson	2001	2011	166	11059	34.4	104.8%
39	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	2001	2011	144	7237	34.4	104.7%
40	Frank Sanders	1995	2003	136	6749	34.4	103.8%
41	Jordy Nelson	2008	2014	105	6109	34.4	101%
42	Derrick Alexander	1994	2002	126	6971	34.2	103%
43	Tony Gonzalez	1997	2013	270	15127	34.2	103.2%
44	Jerry Rice	1985	2004	303	22895	34.2	105.7%
45	Anquan Boldin	2003	2015	186	13195	34.0	101.7%
46	Brandon Marshall	2006	2015	152	11273	34.0	100.1%
47	Cris Carter	1987	2002	234	13899	34.0	104.6%
48	Darnay Scott	1994	2002	124	6193	34.0	101.7%
49	Terry Glenn	1996	2006	136	8823	33.9	103.6%
50	Jason Witten	2003	2015	207	11215	33.9	101.3%
51	Roy Williams	2004	2011	115	5715	33.9	103.4%
52	Bobby Engram	1996	2009	176	7751	33.8	103.1%
53	Vance Johnson	1985	1995	128	5695	33.8	106.4%
54	Mike Quick	1982	1990	101	6464	33.8	106.1%
55	Ricky Sanders	1986	1995	134	6477	33.8	106.6%
56	Marshall Faulk	1994	2005	176	6875	33.8	102.5%
57	Lionel Taylor	1960	1968	113	7195	33.7	105.9%
58	Mike Wallace	2009	2015	111	6307	33.6	97.4%
59	Charlie Joiner	1969	1986	239	12146	33.6	116.2%
60	Rob Moore	1990	1999	153	9368	33.6	103.6%
61	Keyshawn Johnson	1996	2006	167	10571	33.6	102.6%
62	Jeff Graham	1991	2001	160	8172	33.5	102.4%
63	Joe Horn	1996	2007	163	8744	33.5	102.3%
64	Michael Haynes	1988	1997	147	6588	33.5	104.1%
65	Ike Hilliard	1997	2008	161	6397	33.5	102.6%
66	A.J. Green	2011	2015	76	6171	33.5	95.7%
67	Tony Martin	1990	2001	177	9065	33.4	103.2%
68	Amani Toomer	1996	2008	190	9497	33.4	102.1%
69	Anthony Miller	1988	1997	155	9148	33.3	103.6%
70	Randy Moss	1998	2012	218	15292	33.3	101.2%
71	Shawn Jefferson	1991	2003	195	7023	33.3	101.9%
72	Gary Clark	1985	1995	167	10856	33.3	104.1%
73	Wayne Chrebet	1995	2005	152	7365	33.3	100.7%
74	Andre Rison	1989	2000	186	10205	33.3	102.8%
75	Terrell Owens	1996	2010	219	15934	33.2	101.3%
76	Art Powell	1960	1968	105	8046	33.2	103.5%
77	Ozzie Newsome	1978	1990	198	7980	33.2	107.4%
78	Andre Johnson	2003	2015	185	14100	33.2	98.8%
79	Curtis Conway	1993	2004	167	8230	33.1	100.3%
80	Irving Fryar	1984	2000	255	12785	33.0	102.1%
81	Jessie Hester	1985	1995	147	5850	33.0	103.4%
82	Shannon Sharpe	1990	2003	204	10060	32.9	101.6%
83	Darrell Jackson	2000	2008	123	7132	32.8	100.7%
84	Ricky Proehl	1990	2006	244	8878	32.8	101.3%
85	Johnnie Morton	1994	2005	182	8719	32.8	99.3%
86	Keenan McCardell	1992	2007	209	11373	32.8	99.5%
87	Antonio Gates	2003	2015	190	10644	32.8	97.8%
88	Heath Miller	2005	2015	168	6569	32.7	96.7%
89	Carl Pickens	1992	2000	129	7129	32.7	99.3%
90	Dwayne Bowe	2007	2015	125	7208	32.6	95.8%
91	Brandon Lloyd	2003	2014	142	5989	32.6	98.1%
92	Steve Jordan	1982	1994	176	6307	32.5	103%
93	Eddie Kennison	1996	2007	176	8345	32.5	99.4%
94	Nate Washington	2006	2015	158	6954	32.5	95.7%
95	Rod Smith	1995	2006	183	11389	32.5	98.7%
96	Stephone Paige	1983	1991	125	6341	32.5	102.5%
97	Vincent Jackson	2005	2015	150	8907	32.4	95.9%
98	Santonio Holmes	2006	2014	112	6030	32.4	96.8%
99	Jabar Gaffney	2002	2012	158	5690	32.4	98.2%
100	Terance Mathis	1990	2002	206	8809	32.3	99.3%
101	Al Toon	1985	1992	107	6605	32.3	102.6%
102	Greg Olsen	2007	2015	142	6292	32.3	94.7%
103	John Jefferson	1978	1985	102	5714	32.3	106.6%
104	Ahmad Rashad	1972	1982	139	6831	32.2	116.4%
105	Santana Moss	2001	2014	197	10283	32.2	96.6%
106	Art Monk	1980	1995	224	12721	32.2	101.7%
107	Steve Watson	1979	1987	126	6112	32.2	102.6%
108	Drew Hill	1979	1993	211	9831	32.1	102.8%
109	Carlos Carson	1980	1989	126	6372	32.0	100.9%
110	Joey Galloway	1995	2010	198	10950	31.9	96.9%
111	Jerricho Cotchery	2004	2015	175	6623	31.9	94.7%
112	Jimmy Smith	1995	2005	171	12287	31.9	96.7%
113	Mark Carrier	1987	1998	177	8763	31.8	99.1%
114	Chris Chambers	2001	2010	153	7648	31.8	97.3%
115	Plaxico Burress	2000	2012	148	8499	31.8	96.8%
116	Laveranues Coles	2000	2009	153	8609	31.7	97.3%
117	Todd Christensen	1981	1988	108	5872	31.7	99.6%
118	Ed McCaffrey	1991	2003	185	7422	31.7	96.7%
119	Eric Moulds	1996	2007	186	9995	31.7	96.8%
120	Derrick Mason	1997	2011	230	12061	31.7	96.7%
121	Sean Dawkins	1993	2001	140	6291	31.7	95.8%
122	Muhsin Muhammad	1996	2009	202	11438	31.6	96.6%
123	Anthony Carter	1985	1994	137	7733	31.5	100%
124	Roy Green	1979	1992	175	8965	31.4	100.4%
125	Herman Moore	1991	2001	145	9174	31.4	95.8%
126	Andre Reed	1985	2000	234	13198	31.4	97.5%
127	Bill Brooks	1986	1996	169	8001	31.4	97.9%
128	Todd Heap	2001	2012	145	5869	31.3	95.4%
129	Tim Brown	1988	2004	255	14934	31.3	96.4%
130	Tony Hill	1977	1986	141	7988	31.2	103.7%
131	Ronnie Harmon	1986	1997	181	6076	31.2	97.1%
132	Steve Smith	2001	2015	205	13932	31.2	93%
133	Brian Blades	1988	1998	156	7620	31.1	96.6%
134	Quinn Early	1988	1999	179	6448	31.1	96.1%
135	Steve Largent	1976	1989	200	13089	31.1	103.4%
136	Michael Irvin	1988	1999	159	11904	31.0	96.4%
137	J.T. Smith	1979	1990	160	6974	31.0	98.7%
138	Cris Collinsworth	1981	1988	107	6698	30.9	97.1%
139	Freddie Solomon	1975	1985	151	5846	30.8	104.2%
140	Don Maynard	1958	1973	186	11834	30.8	102.3%
141	James Lofton	1978	1993	233	14004	30.7	99%
142	Henry Ellard	1983	1998	228	13777	30.6	95.5%
143	Wesley Walker	1977	1989	154	8306	30.6	100.4%
144	Vernon Davis	2006	2015	148	5841	30.4	89.7%
145	Brett Perriman	1988	1997	153	6589	30.3	94.2%
146	Pat Tilley	1976	1986	147	7005	30.3	102.6%
147	Hines Ward	1998	2011	217	12083	30.2	91.8%
148	Eddie Brown	1985	1991	102	6134	30.0	94.5%
149	Reggie Rucker	1970	1981	159	7065	29.8	109.6%
150	Eric Martin	1985	1994	153	8161	29.7	93.9%
151	Lance Alworth	1962	1972	137	10266	29.5	100.2%
152	Henry Marshall	1976	1987	165	6545	29.3	98%
153	Lee Evans	2004	2011	118	6008	29.2	89.1%
154	Harold Carmichael	1971	1984	182	8985	29.1	105.4%
155	Gary Garrison	1966	1977	134	7538	29.1	105.4%
156	Del Shofner	1958	1967	113	6470	29.1	106.2%
157	Lenny Moore	1956	1967	143	6039	29.1	108.8%
158	Charley Taylor	1964	1977	165	9110	29.0	107.7%
159	Isaac Curtis	1973	1984	167	7101	29.0	101.6%
160	Sonny Randle	1959	1968	120	5996	28.9	104.9%
161	Alfred Jenkins	1975	1983	110	6267	28.8	99.2%
162	Louis Lipps	1984	1992	110	6019	28.7	90.9%
163	Jackie Smith	1963	1977	198	7918	28.6	106.4%
164	Billy Howton	1952	1963	142	8459	28.6	107.4%
165	Tommy McDonald	1957	1968	152	8410	28.5	104.7%
166	Raymond Berry	1955	1967	154	9275	28.4	106.8%
167	Nat Moore	1974	1986	183	7546	28.4	95.6%
168	Mel Gray	1971	1982	145	6644	28.3	103.9%
169	Jimmy Orr	1958	1970	149	7914	28.2	103.1%
170	Bobby Joe Conrad	1959	1969	144	5902	28.2	102.5%
171	John Gilliam	1967	1977	149	7056	28.2	106.3%
172	Drew Pearson	1973	1983	156	7822	28.2	100.5%
173	Stanley Morgan	1977	1990	196	10716	28.1	92.4%
174	Bobby Mitchell	1958	1968	148	7954	28.0	101.7%
175	Fred Biletnikoff	1965	1978	190	8974	28.0	101.7%
176	Cliff Branch	1972	1984	179	8685	27.9	99.3%
177	Elroy Hirsch	1946	1957	127	7029	27.9	109%
178	Gene Washington	1969	1979	140	6856	27.9	105.4%
179	Roy Jefferson	1965	1976	162	7539	27.8	103.7%
180	John Stallworth	1974	1987	165	8723	27.6	93.8%
181	Pete Retzlaff	1956	1966	132	7412	27.6	103.1%
182	Haven Moses	1968	1981	199	8091	27.6	100.8%
183	Red Phillips	1958	1967	119	6044	27.5	100.2%
184	Riley Odoms	1972	1983	153	5755	27.4	99.8%
185	Jack Snow	1965	1975	150	6012	27.3	101.3%
186	Willie Gault	1983	1993	170	6635	27.3	86.6%
187	Mike Ditka	1961	1972	158	5812	27.2	99.7%
188	Gail Cogdill	1960	1970	122	5696	27.1	97.9%
189	Frank Lewis	1971	1983	155	6724	27.0	96.7%
190	Ken Burrough	1970	1981	156	7102	26.9	100.8%
191	Bob Hayes	1965	1975	132	7414	26.5	98.5%
192	Harold Jackson	1969	1983	205	10372	26.4	96%
193	Billy Wilson	1951	1960	100	5902	26.3	99.2%
194	Otis Taylor	1965	1974	129	7306	25.0	89.5%
195	Max McGee	1954	1967	148	6346	24.6	90.5%
196	Paul Warfield	1964	1977	157	8565	23.7	88.7%
197	Carroll Dale	1960	1973	189	8277	23.6	87.1%
198	Don Hutson	1935	1945	116	7991	23.0	124.4%
199	Boyd Dowler	1959	1971	162	7270	22.9	83.6%
200	Dante Lavelli	1946	1956	123	6488	22.2	87.9%

If we sort by pass ratio, Don Hutson jumps to the top of the list. That may be the one example, though, where he was actually causing his teams to pass more: every team was a run-oriented team during Hutson’s time, until he was so effective he caused the Packers to pass more frequently.

Sammy White and Ahmad Rashad played on the late ’70s/early ’80s Vikings teams that threw a ton. From 1976 to 1982, the Vikings threw 3,605 passes, over 25% more than the average team. Kellen Winslow, Charlie Joiner, and Wes Chandler were on the Chargers during that same era, and of course San Diego was super pass-happy, too. After those players and Colston, you get to Johnson.

On the other side of the ledger, Football Perspective heartthrob Steve Smith played on teams that passed only 93% of the time, putting him near the bottom of the list. Hines Ward will get overrated because he was a Steeler, but he gets underrated by some because he played on run-heavy teams. And, of course, Paul Warfield ranks 196th on the list, whether you sort by raw numbers or era-adjusted ones. But we’ve discussed him already, too.

Will Calvin Johnson Break Jerry Rice’s Career Receiving Yards Record?

Chase Stuart — Thu, 14 Aug 2014 11:15:37 +0000

Over the last three seasons, Calvin Johnson has caught 5,137 yards of passes. That’s an incredible amount, and the most by a player over any three-year span in NFL history. That stat by itself isn’t proof of Johnson’s greatness – after all, Detroit has thrown 2,040 passes over the last three years, also the most in any three-year span in football history. But records are not just about greatness: records are a function of era, teammates, and many more elements than pure ability.

So can Calvin Johnson break Jerry Rice’s career receiving yards record? The odds are very long that Johnson will go down in history as a better receiver than Rice, but his odds at breaking his receiving yards record – almost by definition – are a little higher. The man known as Megatron has 9,328 career receiving yards, the third most of any player through his age 28 season. That gives him a 1,462-yard lead on Rice at this age, although Johnson will have to keep up his outstanding pace for a very long time if he wants to capture the record. As the graph below shows, Johnson has had an edge on Rice in career receiving yards through every age of his career to date, but it was Rice’s work in his thirties that separated the GOAT from the pack:

Johnson, in addition to being an all-world talent, has a few other things going for him. He plays in a pass-happy era, and for one of the most pass-happy teams in this era. Those factors will make it a little bit easier for Johnson to get to 22,895 yards. But how much easier? And how likely is Johnson to gain the necessary 13,568 yards to get the record?

Other than Rice, Tim Brown, with 10,200 yards, is the only other player to gain at least 10,000 yards during the period beginning after his age 28 season. But if we want to know how likely Megatron is to gain 13,658 more yards, looking at raw history won’t help; instead, we want to adjust for era, which might give Johnson a fighting chance.

One way to adjust for era is to translate every season in NFL history into the environment of the 2013 season. For example, the leading receiver for each team in 2013 averaged 1,106 receiving yards. In 1990, during Rice’s age 28 season, the average top gainer for each team recorded 914 receiving yards. Therefore, we would multiply the number of receiving yards gained by every player in 1990 by 121%. The table below shows how many receiving yards were gained by each team’s top receiver in each league since 1932:

Lg Year	# Tms	Avg Top Receiver
NFL2013	32	1106
NFL2012	32	1070
NFL2011	32	1030
NFL2010	32	994
NFL2009	32	1007
NFL2008	32	1017
NFL2007	32	1043
NFL2006	32	988
NFL2005	32	1030
NFL2004	32	1032
NFL2003	32	999
NFL2002	32	1052
NFL2001	31	1077
NFL2000	31	1031
NFL1999	31	1081
NFL1998	30	985
NFL1997	30	1002
NFL1996	30	1016
NFL1995	30	1089
NFL1994	28	1051
NFL1993	28	948
NFL1992	28	865
NFL1991	28	945
NFL1990	28	914
NFL1989	28	1024
NFL1988	28	936
NFL1987	28	800
NFL1986	28	962
NFL1985	28	929
NFL1984	28	988
NFL1983	28	950
NFL1982	28	538
NFL1981	28	976
NFL1980	28	869
NFL1979	28	869
NFL1978	28	781
NFL1977	28	663
NFL1976	28	692
NFL1975	26	734
NFL1974	26	629
NFL1973	26	633
NFL1972	26	682
NFL1971	26	716
NFL1970	26	755
AFL1969	10	829
NFL1969	16	845
AFL1968	10	850
NFL1968	16	798
AFL1967	9	858
NFL1967	16	805
AFL1966	9	953
NFL1966	15	878
AFL1965	8	903
NFL1965	14	888
AFL1964	8	1117
NFL1964	14	858
AFL1963	8	1018
NFL1963	14	947
AFL1962	8	793
NFL1962	14	964
AFL1961	8	979
NFL1961	14	946
AFL1960	8	921
NFL1960	13	773
NFL1959	12	680
NFL1958	12	689
NFL1957	12	594
NFL1956	12	679
NFL1955	12	639
NFL1954	12	782
NFL1953	12	695
NFL1952	12	784
NFL1951	12	648
NFL1950	13	671
NFL1949	10	689
NFL1948	10	596
NFL1947	10	644
NFL1946	10	437
NFL1945	10	568
NFL1944	10	410
NFL1943	8	410
NFL1942	10	392
NFL1941	10	333
NFL1940	10	383
NFL1939	10	424
NFL1938	10	311
NFL1937	10	325
NFL1936	9	305
NFL1935	9	293
NFL1934	11	169
NFL1933	10	199
NFL1932	8	176

If we translate each receiver’s numbers during their ages 26-through-28 seasons into the 2013 season environment, Johnson would no longer be the top man during this three-year period,^[1]Note that this is only looking at players during their ages 26, 27, and 28 seasons, and not just any three-year period. As stated in the beginning, Johnson during these ages set the receiving yards … Continue reading and several other receivers come close to matching him:

Rk	Receiver	Years	Age 26 Adj. Rec Yds	Age 27 Adj. Rec Yds	Age 28 Adj. Rec Yds	Age 26--28 Adj. Rec Yds
1	Don Hutson	1939--1941	2210	1919	2456	6584
2	Calvin Johnson	2011--2013	1805	2031	1492	5328
3	Cliff Branch	1974--1976	1921	1346	1775	5043
4	Jerry Rice	1988--1990	1544	1603	1819	4965
5	Tom Fears	1948--1950	1296	1626	1839	4761
6	Torry Holt	2002--2004	1369	1878	1471	4718
7	Michael Irvin	1992--1994	1786	1553	1307	4646
8	Lance Alworth	1966--1968	1605	1302	1708	4615
9	John Gilliam	1971--1973	1293	1678	1586	4557
10	Herman Moore	1995--1997	1712	1411	1427	4551
11	Warren Wells	1968--1970	1480	1681	1370	4532
12	Sterling Sharpe	1991--1993	1125	1869	1487	4482
13	James Lofton	1982--1984	1430	1513	1524	4468
14	Raymond Berry	1959--1961	1561	1858	1021	4440
15	Chad Johnson	2004--2006	1366	1538	1533	4438
16	Andre Johnson	2007--2009	903	1713	1724	4340
17	Charley Hennigan	1961--1963	1973	1210	1142	4325
18	Henry Ellard	1987--1989	1106	1672	1493	4271
19	Elroy Hirsch	1949--1951	523	1132	2551	4207
20	Harold Jackson	1972--1974	1699	1528	904	4132

While this methodology makes Johnson’s accomplishments look less extraordinary, it also helps to provide us with a better sample size. But even using this adjusted formula, only one of these players gained over ten thousand “2013 receiving yards” over the course of their rest of their careers. That was Rice, whose numbers get translated into 16,487 yards from age 29 through the remainder of his career.

In fact, if we look at all players from their age 29 seasons and onwards – regardless of how many yards they gained from ages 26-to-28 – Rice remains the only player who has gained the necessary yards during those years that Johnson will need to steal the crown. The next closest man is Charlie Joiner, who gained 9,203 actual yards, and 12,264 “2013 Receiving Yards” after turning twenty-nine.

Rk	Name	Age 29+ "2013 Rec Yds"	Age 29+ Actual Rec Yds
1	Jerry Rice	16487	15029
2	Charlie Joiner	12264	9203
3	Tim Brown	10858	10200
4	Terrell Owens	10601	9764
5	Don Maynard	10353	8035
6	Drew Hill	10180	8484
7	Jimmy Smith	10040	9431
8	Cris Carter	9897	9322
9	Irving Fryar	9865	8864
10	Marvin Harrison	9693	9026
11	Don Hutson	9471	3687
12	Derrick Mason	9174	8418
13	Rod Smith	9144	8598
14	Henry Ellard	9092	8034
15	Tony Gonzalez	8817	8222
16	Reggie Wayne	8679	8092
17	Donald Driver	8622	7932
18	Isaac Bruce	8508	7909
19	Art Monk	8473	7239
20	Tony Martin	7820	7343
21	Steve Largent	7777	6555
22	James Lofton	7722	6341
23	Harold Jackson	7681	5491
24	Keenan McCardell	7519	7055
25	Muhsin Muhammad	7318	6752

Johnson has been an outstanding receiver, particularly over the past three years. But matching Rice is a truly Herculean task. Even if Johnson gains 1,568 yards this year, he will still need 12,000 more yards in his thirties (or later) to catch Rice. And other than Rice, Joiner (10,576) is the only player to gain more than 10,000 “2013 receiving yards” after turning thirty.

One factor that would help Johnson is if the NFL continues to trend towards the passing game, which would mean that “2013 Receiving Yards” are lower than “2014 Receiving Yards,” “2015 Receiving Yards”, and so on. And as long as Megatron keeps piling up dominant years, he’ll remain “on pace” to break Rice’s record. But Rice’s performance after turning thirty is legendary, which is one of the reasons he’s the greatest receiver of all time. Rice ranks just seventh in Adjusted Receiving Yards (i.e., “2013 receiving yards”) through age 28, but the rest of the top 20 fell far short of Rice’s production after turning twenty-nine years of age.

Rk	Receiver	Adj Rec Yds Thru Age 28	Adj Rec Yds After Age 28
1	Don Hutson	13937	9471
2	Randy Moss	10854	5575
3	#Larry Fitzgerald	10441	1779
4	Calvin Johnson	9905	0
5	James Lofton	9886	7722
6	Lance Alworth	9426	3298
7	Jerry Rice	9367	16487
8	Steve Largent	9183	7777
9	Drew Pearson	8887	2838
10	Billy Howton	8873	3679
11	Andre Reed	8827	6337
12	Torry Holt	8678	5681
13	#Andre Johnson	8669	4941
14	Gene Washington	8647	2039
15	Raymond Berry	8540	4605
16	Wes Chandler	8462	3326
17	#Brandon Marshall	8350	1295
18	Gary Garrison	8303	2653
19	Sterling Sharpe	8293	1178
20	Herman Moore	8271	1849

# – Active

So how likely is Johnson to break the record? History suggests his odds are very slim, even with a through-age-28 lead and the friendly era. Ignoring Rice and the four active receivers, the other fifteen players on this list averaged 9,271 Adjusted Receiving Yards through age 28, and just 4,535 Adjusted Receiving Yards afterwards. In other words, these receivers — the most dominant in NFL history through age 28 – were only able to produce about half as many yards after their age 28 season as they gained through their age 28 season. For Johnson to prove that he’s got a legitimate shot at breaking the record, he’ll have to show that he’s a lot more like Rice than any other wide receiver on the list. And the only way for him to do that is to keep producing year after year after year after year after year….

References[+]

References
↑1	Note that this is only looking at players during their ages 26, 27, and 28 seasons, and not just any three-year period. As stated in the beginning, Johnson during these ages set the receiving yards record for any three-year period.