Tampa Bay’s passing attack was very good this year, and it was also very underrated last year. In 2017, Jameis Winston led all quarterbacks in percentage of pass attempts that picked up a first down. And while Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick both had ups and downs in 2018, after Winston replaced Fitzpatrick in week 11, he played like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL over the last two months (just like he did in 2017). Winston’s biggest problem has been turnovers, but given that he just turned 25 years old last week, I don’t think his career is set in stone. And we know that interception rates are pretty random from year to year, so there is a good chance Winston can bring his interception rate under control.

The big question, though, is can Winston keep being one of the game’s best players at picking up huge chunks of yards while limiting his turnovers? Well, his 2019 is off to a good start, as he just found his perfect coach: Bruce Arians has come out of retirement to coach the Bucs. It is telling that Arians only was willing to re-enter the NFL to coach the Browns and Baker Mayfield or Tampa Bay and Winston. And that is not too surprising, at least not to me: Winston is, in my opinion, capable of becoming the next Carson Palmer and playing at an All-Pro level under the right coach. And I am sure that Arians seems a lot in Winston that he saw in Palmer, particularly when it comes to the vertical passing game.

The graph below shows each quarterback season (with at least 224 pass attempts) since 2015. The X-Axis shows how many air yards (i.e., yards in the air the football traveled) each passer gained, on average, on all pass attempts. The Y-Axis shows how many air yards (which excludes yards gained after the catch) each passer gained, on average, on completed passes. The quarterbacks that stand out the most during the last four years are Palmer and Winston (and Fitzpatrick on the 2018 Bucs).

And if you’re curious, that’s 2018 Josh Allen at the bottom right of the graph: 10.96 air yards per pass, 6.69 air yards per completed pass.

In 2018, Winston and Fitzpatrick joined Allen as the only quarterbacks to average over 10 air yards per attempt.

In 2017, Winston led the league in air yards per attempt by over half a yard.

In 2016, Winston was second in air yards per attempt, and Palmer was fourth.

In 2015, Palmer and Winston were the top two passers in air yards per completed pass.

Arians was a fantastic coach, and he’s now found in Winston a 25-year-old version of Palmer. He’s bringing in Todd Bowles, who excelled as a defensive coordinator under Arians in Arizona. The NFC South is a brutal division with a Hall of Fame quarterback and two former AP MVP quarterbacks, but I’d put my money on the Bucs making the playoffs in 2019 with Winston and Arians.

The secret to Arizona’s success

Since that article, Arizona has gone 3-2 despite being outscored by 10 points. That is both a fact and doubles as the most 2014 Arizona Cardinals sentence you could ever write. The 11-3 Cardinals are definitely not the worst 11-3 team ever, but they aren’t too far from the top of the list. If we look at all teams with at least 11 wins in their first 14 games, Arizona checks in as the 8th biggest overachiever. Given that the 2004 Falcons had a worst points differential *and* were fortunate to face an easy schedule, Arizona can’t match Atlanta when it comes to worst 11-3 teams.

If we just look at all teams through 14 games, Arizona still comes in as the 16th biggest overachiever. The 2013 Jets just miss the cut, but that team won its last two games.

For a team that has had a lot of terrible luck this year, the Cardinals have sure been lucky.