There is only one knock on Willis’ star-studded career: he played in just 112 games, spanning 8 seasons. But let’s compare Willis to the other six modern HOF inside linebackers (Mike Singletary, Nick Buoniconti, Jack Lambert, Harry Carson, Willie Lanier, and Dick Butkus), Lewis, and Urlacher. The best way I can think of to compare defensive players is through Approximate Value, the all-encompassing metric created by Pro-Football-Reference.com. I’ll leave it to a different writer to debate the merits of whether AV is an appropriate metric by which to measure Willis.

Through seven seasons, Willis accumulated 104 points of AV: he recorded 16 points as a rookie, then 13, 19, 15, 16, 16, and 10 in 2013. Those other eight inside linebackers averaged 83 points through seven seasons, which puts Willis’ remarkable start to his career in the proper light. In fact, other than Willis, just three defensive players have recorded over 100 points of AV through seven seasons: Lawrence Taylor, Reggie White, and Alan Page.

The graph below shows the AV accumulated by the six modern HOF inside linebackers, Lewis, Urlacher, and Willis. I have color-coded each player’s line, although it took some work. ^[2]For example, three Bears made the list: I have Singletary with a red line and a black marker, Urlacher with a black line and a red marker that’s a diamond, and Butkus with a black line and a … Continue reading On the X-Axis is season of each player’s career (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.); the Y-Axis represents points of AV in that season.

Let’s get one thing out of the way: Ray Lewis was ridiculous. Now, consider what it means that through seven seasons, Willis exceeded the production of the top inside linebackers of the last 50 years. In fact, his production is even more striking through six seasons, where he gained 103 points of AV; on average, the other eight players had 106.25 points of AV through nine seasons. Take a look:

Please remember that “average” in the above graph is average of the best inside linebackers in the modern era. And compared to the very best, Willis exceeded their level of play through seven seasons by such a significant amount that it took the group two more seasons to catch up. So what did Willis miss? What those players did in years 10+: which was roughly two good seasons, two average seasons, and then some mediocre play. Now I suppose, for some, that might make a big enough difference. But to me, Willis’ domninant play makes him an easy choice.

There’s also some precedent to support Willis’ case. Butkus retired after his ninth season; Lanier last made a Pro Bowl in his 9th year, and tacked on two years where he produced a combined 10 points of AV. And if we look at all players, we find a few more examples.

Willis built his Hall of Fame case on seven great seasons, from ’07 to ’13. Consider:

• John Mackey is one of the greatest tight ends of all time, but he didn’t do much after his first six seasons. In his seventh and eight seasons, he totaled 878 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. In his ninth and tenth seasons, he totaled just 253 yards and 0 touchdowns, and retired after that.

• Earl Campbell played the offensive equivalent of inside linebacker, and tailed off one season earlier than Willis. For Campbell, his sixth year was his last great one: in his seventh season, he rushed 146 times for 468 yards, averaging 3.2 yards per carry; in his eighth and final year, he rushed for 643 yards and 1 touchdown.

• Tight end Kellen Winslow, Sr. played in 109 games in his career. His career lasted a little longer than Willis when you measure by years, but he missed more time, resulting in fewer games. ^[3]Even if you give him 7 more games for 1982, since the strike shouldn’t count against Winslow, that only brings him to 116. Given that Winslow started just 1 games out of 7 as a rookie, … Continue reading

• Mike Ditka made the Pro Bowl the first five seasons of his career, but after his sixth season, most of his years (all of which took place outside of Chicago) were pretty nondescript. ^[4]Yes, he did win a Super Bowl during that time.

• Dwight Stephenson played for eight years, but he was on the bench for his first season and the first 11 games of his second. So he had just six years as a full-time starter, one fewer than Willis.

• Eric Dickerson was great for seven seasons, like Willis. He played four more years after that, but nothing about those years was HOF-caliber.

• Gale Sayers played in just 68 games in his career.

• Dave Casper isn’t thought of as a “short career” guy, but he should be. Yes, Casper played for 11 seasons and in 147 games, but in his first two seasons, he played in 28 games and made 0 starts, catching just 9 passes for 97 yards. In his final season, he played in 7 games, and caught 4 passes for 29 yards. Casper built his HOF career over 8 seasons of play and 112 games, just like Willis.

All of this isn’t to say that Willis’ short career shouldn’t be held against him. It should. But as we’ve seen, his otherworldly-level of play when healthy is more than enough to meet the HOF standards. And given that many of the players identified above were playing in the brutal middle of the field — running backs, tight ends, and inside linebackers — it makes it even easier to give Willis a pass for not lasting as long. The NFL is a collision sport, and running backs, tight ends, and inside linebackers have the scars to prove it.

One of the many great pairs of Bears linebackers.

This post is NOT a look at the greatest linebacker groups ever. Instead, this post seeks to identify teams that had a bunch of great linebackers playing together while those players were in their primes.

The first thing we need to do is rate the linebackers. I used PFR’s Approximate Value system, which assigns a value to measure the approximate contribution of each player in each season since 1950. I then analyzed each player’s single-season AV score to come up with a base rating for each linebacker. ^[1]One other note: I applied an AFL qualifier for players in the earlier days of the AFL. It’s always difficult figuring out how to grade a player’s career, as you need to balance career length with peak production. I decided to average the best five years (they need not be consecutive) for every linebacker since 1950 to come up with a “peak AV rating” for each linebacker. Then I adjusted each linebacker’s peak AV rating for each season of his career depending solely on his age. That age adjusted score is the rating I’m giving each linebacker for each season of play, not his actual AV grade. ^[2]If you used the actual AV score, you would essentially be compiling a list of the best defenses of all time and little more.

How do you adjust for age? I selected the top 100 linebackers in NFL history (according to peak AV) and measured what percentage of their peak AV they produced at each age. After smoothing out the numbers a bit, you get the following age adjustments. For example, a linebacker peaks at age 27, and produces at 81% of his peak level at age 24.

Lewis has the highest five-year peak of any linebacker with a peak AV of 20.2. Urlacher isn’t far behind at 17.6. Here is how many “estimated” points of AV they are assigned in each year of their career in this system:

Obviously these numbers are nothing more than rough estimates. But overall, I think they work just fine for these purposes. Now that we have the age-adjusted peak AV score for each linebacker, we can create a list of the best linebacker groups playing together by simply averaging the age-adjusted peak AV scores for the starting linebackers on each team.

The table below shows the 200 highest rated sets of 4-3 linebackers since 1960. It is sorted simply by the average of the three age-adjusted peak AV scores of each of the starting linebackers. The top combination comes from the 2001 Ravens. Baltimore’s best linebacker was Lewis, who was 26 and has an “estimated AV” that year of 20.0. The second best linebacker was Peter Boulware, who was 27 and receives an age-adjusted AV of 10.4. Jamie Sharper, also 27, was the third best linebacker, and gets an “estimated AV” of 9.6.

One note: I decided not to re-list linebacker trios that would otherwise appear multiple times on the list. Any time a linebacker trio appeared more often than once, I only listed the best one (which would, of course, be based solely on the ages of the three players) in the table below. So that’s why the 2000 Ravens aren’t on there, because the 2001 version was a year older (and presumably closer to their peak). A similar fate sacked the ’85 Bears, replaced by the more physically mature ’86 version.

The 1962 Packers had one of the greatest defenses of all time, and their slightly younger predecessor comes in at #2. Jack Ham and Jack Lambert are joined by a third linebacker at the 3rd, 9th, 10th, and 22nd spots on the list. In 1975, Ham, Lambert and Andy Russell all made the Pro Bowl, although that trio rates higher in ’76 as Lambert moved closer to his estimated peak.

Urlacher and Lance Briggs check in at #6, in between the Mike Singletary/Wilber Marshall/Otis Wilson Bears from the mid-’80s and the Bill George/Joe Fortunato/Larry Morris team that led Chicago to a title in 1963. Butkus’ Bears also show up in the top 20 when he was teamed with Lee Roy Caffey. But that’s not even the highest grade of Caffey’s career, as he teamed with two Hall of Fame linebackers on the ’67 Packers.

We can do the same with 3-4 linebackers. As always, both tables are fully searchable and sortable. And Lewis makes a couple of high showings on this list, too.

Of course, the top of the list is reserved for the Dome Patrol, arguably the best quartet of linebackers in NFL history. In 1992, all four starters made the Pro Bowl while the offense set a modern record for slowest tempo. Mostly, this list is dominated by Steelers teams from the last two decades. The Orange Crush Broncos crack the top five, with Randy Gradishar, Tom Jackson, Bob Swenson and Joe Rizzo — the same group that took the team to the Super Bowl in 1977 — peaking two years later. The ’76 Raiders that went 13-1 and won the Super Bowl also crack the top ten, and a couple of Dr. Doom groups make the list. The ’91 Bills defense may have been anchored by Bruce Smith, but the linebackers behind him also show up relatively high on the list.

What sticks out to you? Leave your thoughts in the comments.