As you can see, Tarkenton lags quite a bit behind the other three, but of course he played in a much tougher era. He also held the touchdown crown for a record 19 years and 11 months.  And he finished strong: he threw 110 touchdowns in the last 80 games of his career (games 164-243), which is even more than Marino had (105) during games 164-263 of his career.

Marino’s incredible early start really stands out: by game 63, he was at 156 touchdowns, far ahead of Manning (109), Favre (102), and Tarkenton (91) through 63 games. It isn’t until game 179 that Manning finally passes him (340-338), while it takes Favre until game 213 (385-384) to move ahead.  Marino would also jump back ahead of Favre, ultimately finishing with 420 in 242 games; at that point, Favre was still at 414.

Manning’s trajectory is of course impressive. But it’s the shape of his career that really stands out. Consider:

• Manning played in 266 games: he threw 252 touchdowns in his first 133 games, and 287 in his final 133.
• By comparison, Favre threw 269 in his first 151 games, and 239 in his final 151, and Favre was known for his longevity!
• Marino had 245 in his first 121 games, and 175 in his final 121 games.
• Tarkenton had 182 touchdowns in his first 121 games, 3 in his 122nd game, and 157 in his final 121 games, and he was a fast finisher!

Even with his bad finish in 2015, Manning still had a remarkable run in his 30s. At the halfway mark of his career, he was a Hall of Famer, and then he was arguably better on his back nine. That’s how you go about having two HOF careers.

Finally, let’s reproduce this chart, but include Tom Brady and Drew Brees:

The most incredible part of this chart? That would be the intersection, where you can’t even see three of the quarterbacks. At game 175, Brees was at 334 touchdown passes, Marino was at 333, Manning 332, and Brady 330. That’s unreal! ^[1]Favre was at 312; Tarkenton 247. Brees is actually still ahead of Manning’s pace, with 428 passes in 217 career games. Through 217 games, Manning was at 420, Brady 414, Favre 391, Marino 387, and Tarkenton 305. Brees was 36 years and 353 days old in game 217; Manning was 36-232 (game 9 of the 2012 season) when he had his 217th game. He ended that season with 436 touchdowns and turned 37 the following March. Brees ended last year with 428 touchdowns and turned 37 the following January.

So, given that backdrop, we could make the case that Brees is on pace to break the record, although Manning set the single-season touchdown record in his next year. Still, given the way Manning fell off at age 39, it’s within reason to think that Brees could set the record with another 110 touchdowns. He’s also a year and a half younger than Brady, so he is the bigger threat to Manning’s record. He’ll need 112 more touchdowns, which would likely require four more seasons. He has shown no dropoff in play, but neither did Manning until December 2014.

Tom Brady has been known to wear Suggs

Disclaimer: Quarterbacks don’t have records, teams do. A quarterback’s “record” is simply shorthand for saying “the record of a quarterback’s teams in all playoff games started by that quarterback.” Please forgive me for using that shorthand for the remainder of this post.

Eight years ago, Doug Drinen wrote a fun post in advance of the 2006 AFC Championship Game. At the time, Peyton Manning had gone 0-2 in playoff games against Tom Brady, so Doug looked at quarterbacks who had gone winless against another particular quarterback in the postseason.

Manning wound up beating Brady in that game, and evened his record against Brady in the 2013 playoffs. No pair of quarterbacks have ever met as starters five times in the playoffs, so Brady/Manning are tied for the most playoff meetings. Joining them on Saturday will be Brady and Joe Flacco. This weekend’s game will be the fourth time since 2009 that the Ravens have traveled to Foxboro in the postseason, and Brady and Flacco have been under center for each game.

That will make Brady/Flacco the 4th pair of quarterbacks to face off four times in the playoffs. Who were the first three?

Terry Bradshaw (2-2) vs. Ken Stabler

1973, Division Round: OAK 33, PIT 14
1974, AFC Championship Game: PIT 24, OAK 13
1975, AFC Championship Game: PIT 16, OAK 10
1976, AFC Championship Game: OAK 24, PIT 7

The most famous game between Brady and Stabler, of course, was the Immaculate Reception game.  But Daryle Lamonica was the Oakland starter that day, although Stabler wound up replacing Lamonica in the 4th quarter. In fact, it was Stabler who scored what appeared to be the game-winning touchdown on a 30-yard rush.

That game was the first of a five-year stretch where the Steelers and Raiders would meet in the playoffs every year.  The Immaculate Reception took place at Three Rivers, but three of the four Bradshaw/Stabler games took place in Oakland.

Oakland exacted some revenge the following season, but the Raiders would then lose to the Dolphins in the AFC title game. After that, tho, the eventual winner of each Raiders/Steelers game would win the Super Bowl. ^[1]This streak is still active: the two teams have only met once since 1976, which was when the Raiders defeated Pittsburgh in the 1983 playoffs.

Brett Favre (3-1) vs. Steve Young

1995, Division Round: GNB 27, SFO 17
1996, Division Round: GNB 35, SFO 14
1997, NFC Championship Game: GNB 23, SFO 10
1998, Wildcard Round: SFO 30, GNB 27

At first, Favre was the underdog: Young had won the AP MVP and the Super Bowl in 1994, as part of one of the greatest individual seasons in NFL history.  In 1995, Favre won the AP MVP award, but the Packers were still heavy underdogs against the 49ers.  Green Bay pulled the upset, the first of three straight years in which the Packers knocked the 49ers out of the playoffs.  From 1992 to 1997, the 49ers made the playoffs all six years, and either lost to Green Bay (three times), lost to Dallas (twice), or won the Super Bowl (once).

In 1998, it appeared as though the Packers would make it four straight against San Francisco. Brett Favre threw a touchdown to Antonio Freeman with two minutes left to give the Packers a 27-23 lead. Then, in the final seconds, Young and Terrell Owens created The Catch II, connecting for a 25-yard touchdown on the last play from scrimmage.  Has Owens not made that catch, Young would have lost to Favre in four straight seasons, with three of those games coming in San Francisco.

Peyton Manning (2-2) vs. Tom Brady

2003, AFC Championship Game: NWE 24, IND 14
2004, Division Round: NWE 20, IND 3
2006, AFC Championship Game: IND 38, NWE 34
2013, AFC Championship Game: DEN 26, NWE 16

Here is a very succinct way to describe Brady/Manning in the playoffs: the home team has won each game.

Joe Flacco (3-1 or 2-2) vs. Tom Brady

2009, Wildcard Round: BAL 33, NWE 14
2011, AFC Championship Game: BAL 20, NWE 23
2012, AFC Championship Game: BAL 28, NWE 13
2014, Division Round: Ravens at Patriots

The first Ravens/Patriots playoff game was one of the worst games of the Brady/Belichick era.  New England fell behind 24-0 in the first quarter, and the Patriots finished with a Game Script of -16.6.  That’s the second worst of the Brady/Belichick era, behind a -18.0 in the famous 31-0 Bills game in the 2003 season opener.

In 2011, the Ravens nearly pulled off another upset. Flacco connected with Lee Evans for what appeared to be the game-winning touchdown, but Sterling Moore knocked the pass out of Evans’ hands.  Two plays later, Billy Cundiff shanked a 32-yard field goal that would have forced overtime. The miss sent the Patriots to the Super Bowl, but it would be the Ravens to next hoise a Lombardi Trophy.

That’s because the Ravens came into Foxboro and shocked the Patriots in the 2012 AFC Championship Game. Baltimore then defeated the 49ers in the Super Bowl, capping perhaps the 2nd most unlikely Super Bowl run since 1978.