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	<title>Blair Walsh &#8211; FootballPerspective.com</title>
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		<title>Blair Walsh In Perspective: Game-By-Game EPA</title>
		<link>http://www.footballperspective.com/blair-walsh-in-perspective-game-by-game-epa/</link>
					<comments>http://www.footballperspective.com/blair-walsh-in-perspective-game-by-game-epa/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chase Stuart]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Nov 2016 13:38:52 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Checkdowns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statgeekery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blair Walsh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kickers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vikings]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=31285</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Minnesota Vikings kicker Blair Walsh was released by the Vikings this week, and given his struggles this year, it&#8217;s hard to argue with Minnesota&#8217;s decision. Walsh will be infamously remembered for missing a chip shot in the playoffs against the Seahawks last year, and those demons have carried over to his 2016 performance. How much [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Minnesota Vikings kicker <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WalsBl00.htm" target="_blank">Blair Walsh</a> was released by the Vikings <a href="http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000740131/article/vikings-release-kicker-blair-walsh-add-kai-forbath" target="_blank">this week</a>, and given his struggles this year, it&#8217;s hard to argue with Minnesota&#8217;s decision.  Walsh will be infamously remembered for missing a chip shot in the playoffs against the Seahawks last year, and those demons have carried over to his 2016 performance.</p>
<p>How much so?  I looked at every kick of Walsh&#8217;s career, beginning in his rookie season of 2012.  For every made extra point in 2012, 2013, or 2014, I gave him +0.01 points, and +0.06 points for every made extra point in 2015 or 2016.  Then, for every miss, he received -0.99 or -0.94 points, as applicable.</p>
<p>Extra points were easy; field goals were slightly harder.  The graph below shows the average success rate on field goals in 3-year increments, from 2012 to week 10 of 2016:</p>
<a href="http://www.footballperspective.com/blair-walsh-in-perspective-game-by-game-epa/fg-exp/" rel="attachment wp-att-31289"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" src="http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/fg-exp.png" alt="fg-exp" width="900" height="600" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-31289" srcset="http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/fg-exp.png 900w, http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/fg-exp-300x200.png 300w, http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/fg-exp-768x512.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></a>
<p>I used those numbers to give Walsh points for each field goal attempt, too.  For example, 48-50 yard kicks have been made 70% of the time over the last five years, so if Walsh attempted a 49-yard field goal, I gave him +0.9 points if he made it, and -2.1 points if he missed it.</p>
<p>Using that methodology, here is how Walsh has fared in every regular season game of his career:</p>
<a href="http://www.footballperspective.com/blair-walsh-in-perspective-game-by-game-epa/walsh-fg/" rel="attachment wp-att-31288"><img decoding="async" src="http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/walsh-fg.png" alt="walsh-fg" width="900" height="600" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-31288" srcset="http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/walsh-fg.png 900w, http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/walsh-fg-300x200.png 300w, http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/walsh-fg-768x512.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></a>
<p>As a rookie, Walsh was at +11.4 in this system, and would be even higher if I era-adjusted in sample (for convenience, I treated 2012 games the same as 2015 games, which probably is not appropriate). In 2016, he had -7.1 points by this system, including two miserable games in weeks 1 (missed extra point, missed 37-yarder, missed 56-yarder) and 9 (missed extra point, missed 46-yarder in a game the Vikings lost in overtime). </p>
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