Comments on: Super Bowl Metrics http://www.footballperspective.com/super-bowl-metrics/ NFL History and Stats Wed, 22 Jan 2014 19:32:15 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Ben http://www.footballperspective.com/super-bowl-metrics/#comment-74923 Wed, 22 Jan 2014 19:32:15 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=15991#comment-74923 Turnovers’s high correlation to SB wins is likely an illusion. A great team (measured by high O NY/A difference) can get eliminated from the playoffs outright if it commits too many turnovers even though they’re more caused by bad luck than low skill. This introduces a bias. Also, teams with fewer TOs (and hence, better W & L records and points difference) are more likely to gain home advantage.

If we really want to see which stat is most important for playoff success, we have to control for those factors. Or select only teams with home field advantage (or without) then compare accordingly.

Interesting post nevertheless. My apologies if I overlooked that you already made similar points – am in a hurry right now.

]]> By: Peter http://www.footballperspective.com/super-bowl-metrics/#comment-74109 Sun, 19 Jan 2014 07:27:48 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=15991#comment-74109 Cool stats…
overall it seems defensive teams have a slight advantage. But if you use SD for each categorie, I guess Y/PP differential beats pyth. And more precisely going into Y/PP, I am almost sure Y/PP offense beats Y/PP defensive by a good margin, because there were such outstanding teams like SL, WAS and SF winning the SB, and some just came up short (like MIA-84, SL-01, NE-07). Y/PP is the killer stat number 1. Still.

Cheers

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