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One of the greatest receivers ever

As noted yesterday, Steve Smith played on teams that didn’t pass very often (just 94% as often as the average team) or pass well (his average team’s passing offense produced a -0.12 Relative ANY/A). He’s the only player in the top 20 in career receiving yards who played on teams that were below average in both categories; Muhsin Muhammad and Joey Galloway are the only other such players in the top 40, and Eric Moulds (who ranks 49th) is the only other such player in the top 75 in career receiving yards. There’s a reason that Smith has long been a Football Perspective favorite.

Using the results from Friday’s post and Saturday’s post, we can sum the results to see which receivers really played in the most disadvantageous environments. To do that we need to convert each player’s results in both Pass Ratio and Relative ANY/A into Z-scores.

For Pass Ratio, the average for this group of 200 players was 102.5%, and the standard deviation was 6.7%. So for Smith, whose teams passed on 93.6% of plays, he has a Z-Score in the Pass Ratio variable of -1.33, since his teams were 1.33 standard deviations below average (102.5% minus 93.6% is 8.9%, and 8.9% divided by 6.7% is 1.33). For Relative ANY/A, the average was +0.35 and the standard deviation was 0.63. For Smith, he has a Z-Score in pass efficiency of -0.74, since his teams were 0.12 ANY/A below average (+0.35 minus -0.12 is 0.47, and 0.47 divided by 0.63 gives us how many standard deviations his teams were below average).

Note that the averages here for both pass quantity and quality are above average. That’s not surprising, but it is noteworthy. One, the players with the most receiving yards tended to play on better passing offenses, but we also give more weight to a player’s best seasons, which tend to come when they play with good quarterbacks who frequently pass.

The table below shows the full results for all 200 players. Here’s how to read the Jerry Rice line. He is the career leader in receiving yards with 22,895, and he played from 1985 to 2004. His average team had a RANY/A of +1.57, which was 1.91 standard deviations above average. His average team also had a Pass Ratio of 105.8% of league average, which was 0.51 standard deviations above average. Add those numbers together, and he has a Z-Score total of 2.42.

Yds RkPlayerYardsFYrLYrRANY/AZ-RANY/APass RatioZ-PR%Z-Score Total
1Jerry Rice22895198520041.571.91105.8%0.512.42
2Larry Fitzgerald1627920042018-0.32-1.06108.7%0.94-0.12
3Terrell Owens15934199620100.820.74102.4%-0.020.72
4Randy Moss15292199820121.181.31102.9%0.071.37
5Isaac Bruce15208199420090.380.03107.7%0.780.82
6Tony Gonzalez15127199720130.520.26103.8%0.20.46
7Tim Brown14934198820040.410.0997.8%-0.7-0.61
8Steve Smith1473120012016-0.12-0.7493.6%-1.33-2.07
9Marvin Harrison14580199620081.511.81106%0.532.34
10Reggie Wayne14345200120141.341.55109.5%1.052.60
11Andre Johnson14185200320160.14-0.3499.8%-0.4-0.74
12James Lofton14004197819930.14-0.3499.5%-0.44-0.78
13Cris Carter13899198720020.540.29105.1%0.40.69
14Anquan Boldin13779200320160.03-0.52103.3%0.13-0.39
15Henry Ellard13777198319980.24-0.1796.9%-0.83-1.01
16Torry Holt13382199920090.560.32110.6%1.231.55
17Andre Reed13198198520000.34-0.0297.1%-0.81-0.83
18Steve Largent13089197619890.21-0.23103.2%0.11-0.12
19Irving Fryar1278519842000-0.05-0.64104.2%0.26-0.38
20Art Monk12721198019950.630.43101.6%-0.130.30
21Jason Witten12448200320170.640.45100.7%-0.270.18
22Brandon Marshall1235120062018-0.04-0.63100.3%-0.33-0.96
23Jimmy Smith12287199520050.510.2597.6%-0.73-0.48
24Charlie Joiner12146196919860.950.94117.2%2.223.16
25Hines Ward12083199820110.420.1192%-1.57-1.46
26Derrick Mason12061199720110.29-0.0998.2%-0.64-0.74
27Michael Irvin11904198819990.830.7495.8%-1.01-0.27
28Antonio Gates11841200320181.111.298%-0.670.53
29Don Maynard11834195819730.420.1105.6%0.470.57
30Calvin Johnson1161920072015-0.18-0.84115.2%1.921.08
31Muhsin Muhammad1143819962009-0.15-0.897.3%-0.77-1.57
32Rod Smith11389199520060.770.6698.9%-0.530.12
33Keenan McCardell11373199220070.610.4100.7%-0.260.13
34Antonio Brown11207201020180.750.63106.8%0.651.28
35Chad Johnson11059200120110.19-0.25104%0.23-0.02
36Joey Galloway1095019952010-0.45-1.2796.3%-0.94-2.20
37Roddy White10863200520150.370.03103.7%0.180.21
38Gary Clark10856198519950.780.67103.8%0.190.86
39Julio Jones10731201120180.980.98107%0.671.66
40Stanley Morgan10716197719900.32-0.0593.3%-1.37-1.42
41Keyshawn Johnson1057119962006-0.02-0.59103%0.07-0.52
42Harold Jackson10372196919830.550.3197.4%-0.77-0.45
43Santana Moss10283200120140.29-0.197.1%-0.8-0.90
44Lance Alworth10266196219721.351.5799%-0.521.05
45DeSean Jackson10261200820180.660.48103.9%0.210.69
46Andre Rison10205198920000.27-0.14104.7%0.340.20
47Donald Driver10137199920120.810.72110.1%1.151.87
48Shannon Sharpe10060199020030.370.02102%-0.07-0.05
49Eric Moulds999519962007-0.08-0.6997.8%-0.7-1.39
50Wes Welker9924200520151.632.01109.8%1.13.11
51Drew Hill9831197919930.28-0.11105.4%0.450.34
52Marques Colston9759200620151.391.63117.5%2.263.90
53Amani Toomer949719962008-0.07-0.67104.5%0.3-0.37
54Rob Moore936819901999-0.57-1.45104.6%0.32-1.13
55Demaryius Thomas9330201020180.590.37105.5%0.450.82
56Raymond Berry9275195519671.361.58109.8%1.12.68
57Herman Moore9174199120010.1-0.4196.5%-0.9-1.30
58Anthony Miller914819881997-0.19-0.86104.4%0.3-0.57
59Charley Taylor9110196419771.211.35108.6%0.912.26
60Vincent Jackson9080200520160.620.4196.5%-0.89-0.48
61Tony Martin9065199020010.19-0.26101.3%-0.18-0.44
62Harold Carmichael8985197119840.29-0.1106.1%0.540.44
63.5Mark Clayton8974198319931.632.02116.2%2.074.08
63.5Fred Biletnikoff8974196519781.271.44103.1%0.11.53
65Wes Chandler8966197819880.950.94115.6%1.972.92
66Roy Green896519791992-0.03-0.6101.3%-0.18-0.78
67A.J. Green8907201120180.13-0.3596%-0.98-1.33
68Ricky Proehl887819902006-0.07-0.67102.4%-0.01-0.68
69Mark Duper8869198319921.742.18113.6%1.673.84
70Terry Glenn8823199620060.19-0.26103.8%0.2-0.06
71Terance Mathis8809199020020.19-0.25100.2%-0.34-0.60
72Mark Carrier876319871998-0.87-1.93100.1%-0.36-2.28
73Joe Horn8744199620070.32-0.05102.9%0.060.01
74John Stallworth8723197419870.460.1694.3%-1.23-1.07
75Johnnie Morton8719199420050.14-0.34102.5%0-0.34
76Cliff Branch8685197219840.610.498%-0.67-0.27
77Laveranues Coles860920002009-0.39-1.1796.5%-0.89-2.06
78Jordy Nelson8587200820181.381.62101.4%-0.161.46
79Paul Warfield8565196419771.321.5288%-2.17-0.66
80Plaxico Burress8499200020120.06-0.4697.6%-0.73-1.20
81Billy Howton8459195219630.06-0.47108.9%0.960.49
82Tommy McDonald8410195719680.35-0.01108.6%0.920.90
83Eddie Kennison8345199620070.380.0498.6%-0.58-0.54
84Wesley Walker8306197719890.12-0.3799.3%-0.48-0.85
85Greg Jennings82912006201511.02103.2%0.111.13
86Carroll Dale8277196019730.05-0.4987%-2.32-2.81
87Curtis Conway823019932004-0.15-0.79102%-0.07-0.86
88Ernest Givins8215198619950.31-0.06110.5%1.211.14
89Jeff Graham817219912001-0.3-1.03102.8%0.04-0.99
90Eric Martin8161198519940.16-0.3193.2%-1.39-1.70
91Sterling Sharpe813419881994-0.22-0.9110.5%1.210.31
92Webster Slaughter8111198619980.04-0.5107.7%0.780.28
93T.Y. Hilton8097201220180.09-0.41107.6%0.770.36
94Haven Moses809119681981-0.53-1.39101.2%-0.19-1.58
95Mike Wallace8072200920170.02-0.53101.3%-0.18-0.71
96Art Powell8046196019680.02-0.52104.4%0.28-0.24
97Bill Brooks800119861996-0.51-1.3798.4%-0.61-1.97
98Don Hutson7991193519452.242.98125.5%3.466.44
99Tony Hill7988197719860.770.65104%0.230.88
100Ozzie Newsome7980197819900.19-0.26108%0.830.57
101Bobby Mitchell7954195819680.80.7107.4%0.741.44
102Jackie Smith791819631977-0.02-0.59106.3%0.58-0.02
103Jimmy Orr7914195819701.21.34102.4%-0.021.32
104Rob Gronkowski7861201020181.51.8107.9%0.822.62
105Pierre Garcon7854200820180.25-0.16104.2%0.260.10
106Greg Olsen784720072018-0.16-0.8294.5%-1.19-2.01
107Drew Pearson7822197319831.491.79101.8%-0.11.69
108Bobby Engram7751199620090.19-0.26104.3%0.280.02
109Anthony Carter7733198519940.11-0.39100.3%-0.32-0.71
110Chris Chambers764820012010-0.34-1.198.3%-0.63-1.73
111Brian Blades762019881998-0.86-1.9296.7%-0.86-2.78
112Nat Moore7546197419861.161.2894.3%-1.230.04
113Roy Jefferson7539196519760-0.55104.2%0.26-0.30
114Gary Garrison7538196619770.510.24107.3%0.720.96
115Michael Crabtree7477200920180.2-0.2493.3%-1.37-1.62
116Dez Bryant7459201020170.760.6499.3%-0.480.16
117Vernon Davis743920062018-0.08-0.6991.3%-1.68-2.37
118DeAndre Hopkins743720132018-0.39-1.1898.6%-0.59-1.76
119Jimmy Graham7436201020181.151.25112.4%1.492.74
120Ed McCaffrey7422199120030.860.7999.5%-0.440.35
121Bob Hayes7414196519751.331.5497.2%-0.790.75
122Pete Retzlaff7412195619660.450.15107%0.680.83
123Wayne Chrebet736519952005-0.02-0.6102.5%0.01-0.59
124Otis Taylor7306196519740.960.9589.9%-1.9-0.95
125Boyd Dowler7270195919710.920.8983.8%-2.81-1.92
126Antonio Freeman7251199520030.910.88105.9%0.511.39
127T.J. Houshmandzadeh723720012011-0.07-0.66105.1%0.4-0.27
128Golden Tate7214201020180.35098.3%-0.62-0.62
129Dwayne Bowe720820072015-0.75-1.7495.1%-1.1-2.84
130Lionel Taylor719519601968-1.27-2.56109.2%1-1.56
131Darrell Jackson7132200020080-0.5599.6%-0.44-0.99
132Carl Pickens712919922000-0.12-0.75101%-0.22-0.98
133Ken Burrough710219701981-0.68-1.6399.8%-0.41-2.04
134Isaac Curtis7101197319840.920.89102.5%00.89
135Reggie Rucker7065197019810.09-0.42110.2%1.160.74
136John Gilliam7056196719770.620.42106%0.530.95
137Elroy Hirsch7029194619571.862.37109%0.983.35
138Emmanuel Sanders7024201020180-0.56103.7%0.19-0.37
139Shawn Jefferson7023199120030.07-0.45101.9%-0.09-0.54
140Pat Tilley700519761986-0.16-0.81102.2%-0.05-0.85
141Jake Reed6999199220020.550.31108.4%0.881.20
142J.T. Smith697419791990-0.44-1.2598.3%-0.63-1.88
143Derrick Alexander6971199420020.430.12104.3%0.270.39
144Nate Washington695420062015-0.15-0.7996.8%-0.85-1.63
145Marshall Faulk6875199420050.930.9102.8%0.050.96
146Gene Washington6856196919790.450.14107%0.680.82
147Jeremy Maclin6835200920170.09-0.42101.9%-0.08-0.50
148Ahmad Rashad6831197219820.08-0.43119.2%2.512.08
149Charley Hennigan6823196019661.061.12113.8%1.72.82
150Larry Centers679719912003-0.32-1.07105.8%0.5-0.57
151Dwight Clark6750197919871.341.55110.3%1.182.72
152Frank Sanders674919952003-0.91-1.99106%0.53-1.46
153Kellen Winslow6741197919871.161.26121.6%2.874.14
154Frank Lewis6724197119830.27-0.1496.9%-0.84-0.98
155Marty Booker670319992009-0.92-2.01105.9%0.52-1.49
156Cris Collinsworth6698198119881.211.3598.9%-0.540.81
157.5Deion Branch6644200220120.780.67105%0.381.05
157.5Mel Gray6644197119820.740.61105%0.380.99
159Willie Gault6635198319930.13-0.3585%-2.63-2.98
160Jerricho Cotchery662320042015-0.48-1.3294.3%-1.22-2.54
161Al Toon6605198519920.06-0.46103.2%0.11-0.35
162Brett Perriman6589198819970.24-0.1896.1%-0.96-1.15
163Michael Haynes6588198819970.25-0.16105.5%0.450.29
164Heath Miller6569200520150.740.6197.9%-0.69-0.08
165Doug Baldwin6563201120180.650.4787.9%-2.19-1.72
166Henry Marshall654519761987-0.24-0.94100.3%-0.33-1.26
167Dante Lavelli6488194619562.974.1288.6%-2.082.04
168Ricky Sanders6477198619950.720.58108%0.831.41
169Del Shofner6470195819670.830.76108.6%0.911.67
170Mike Quick646419821990-0.41-1.2106.5%0.61-0.59
171Quinn Early644819881999-0.08-0.6898.2%-0.65-1.33
172Sammy White6400197619850.07-0.44122.5%3.012.56
173Ike Hilliard639719972008-0.17-0.83103.6%0.17-0.66
174Carlos Carson637219801989-0.06-0.65105.9%0.51-0.14
175Troy Brown6366199320060.31-0.07104.1%0.250.18
176Max McGee6346195419670.40.0791.1%-1.71-1.64
177Stephone Paige6341198319910.17-0.28100.2%-0.35-0.63
178Haywood Jeffires6334198719960.40.07116.2%2.072.14
179Steve Jordan6307198219940.07-0.45101.8%-0.11-0.56
180Sean Dawkins629119932001-0.15-0.894.5%-1.2-2.00
181Alfred Jenkins626719751983-0.32-1.06100.2%-0.34-1.40
182Darnay Scott619319942002-0.27-0.98103%0.08-0.90
183Alshon Jeffery6181201220180.27-0.13101.5%-0.14-0.27
184Jeremy Shockey6143200220110.3-0.09106%0.530.44
185Eddie Brown6134198519911.251.493.7%-1.320.09
186Steve Watson611219791987-0.08-0.68102.4%-0.01-0.69
187Mike Evans6103201420180.06-0.47103.2%0.1-0.37
188Ronnie Harmon607619861997-0.02-0.5898.7%-0.57-1.15
189Red Phillips604419581967-0.79-1.8101.8%-0.11-1.91
190Lenny Moore6039195619671.551.89111.8%1.43.29
191Santonio Holmes6030200620140.06-0.4795.7%-1.03-1.49
192Louis Lipps601919841992-0.46-1.2991.1%-1.71-3.00
193Jack Snow6012196519750.760.64104.1%0.250.89
194Lee Evans600820042011-0.72-1.6988.2%-2.14-3.84
195Sonny Randle599619591968-0.37-1.14106.6%0.62-0.52
196Brandon Lloyd598920032014-0.32-1.06100.2%-0.34-1.40
197.5Bobby Joe Conrad590219591969-0.31-1.05107.4%0.74-0.30
197.5Billy Wilson5902195119600.08-0.4399.9%-0.39-0.82
199Ben Watson5885200420180.450.15104.8%0.350.51
200Todd Christensen587219811988-0.05-0.6498.6%-0.58-1.22

Lee Evans had the most unfortunate situation, at least by these measures, of any player in the top 200 career receiving yards. His teams were 1.69 standard deviations below average in RANY/A and 2.14 standard deviations below average in Pass Ratio, for a total Z-Score grade of -3.84.

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