Comments on: Rushing EPA and Yards per Carry http://www.footballperspective.com/rushing-epa-and-yards-per-carry/ NFL History and Stats Fri, 15 Nov 2024 07:47:30 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: URL http://www.footballperspective.com/rushing-epa-and-yards-per-carry/#comment-354835 Fri, 15 Nov 2024 07:47:30 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=20681#comment-354835 … [Trackback]

[…] There you will find 64324 more Infos: footballperspective.com/rushing-epa-and-yards-per-carry/ […]

]]> By: Nick Bradley http://www.footballperspective.com/rushing-epa-and-yards-per-carry/#comment-140926 Wed, 16 Jul 2014 21:07:42 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=20681#comment-140926 I think this is all reinvention of the wheel. What’s wrong with EPA again? It rewards short yardage backs for picking up the necessary yardage, or even part of it (on first and second down). Short yardage backs are also lower variance, so I don’t really see any punishment here.

From codeandfootball:

“Touchdowns are more close in value to the NFL passer rating than THGF’s new passer rating. And although I’m critical of Chase Stuart’s derivation of the value of 20 for PFR’s AYA formula, the adjustment they made does seem to be in the right direction.

So where does the model break down?

Inside the 10 yard line. It doesn’t accurately depict the game as it gets close to the goal line. It’s also not down and distance specific in the way a more sophisticated equivalent points model can be. A stat like expected points added gets much closer to the value of an individual play than does a AYA style stat. In terms of a play’s effect on winning, then you need win stats, such as Brian’s WPA or ESPNs QBR to break things down (though I haven’t seen ESPN give us the QBR of a play just yet, which WPA can do).”

http://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2011/10/21/the-valid-range-of-a-linearized-scoring-model/

]]>