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Rookie Passing, Rushing, and Receiving

In the graph below, the blue line shows the number of passing yards by rookies in each year since 1970, while the red line shows the number of passing yards by non-rookies in the same season. Both are measured against the left Y-Axis; the green line shows the percentage of rookie passing yards to veteran passing yards. As you can see, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden were part of an extremely productive rookie class:

rk vet pass yds
(You can ignore the peak in 1987 — that’s due to the use of replacement players during the NFL strike.)

Historically, of course, running back was the offensive skill position where rookies were most likely to make an impact. This next graph shows the same information but using rushing yards. The blue line shows the number of rushing yards by rookies in each year and the red line shows the number of rushing yards by non-rookies. Both are measured against the left Y-Axis; the green line shows the percentage of rookie rushing yards to veteran rushing yards for each season since 1970. When it comes to passing yards, rookies have historically produced about 10% as many yards as veterans; for rushing yards, rookies are nearly twice as productive. And just like at quarterback, rookie running backs fared pretty well last year, including Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, and Trent Richardson (you can see read some thoughts I had on those three earlier this off-season here).

rk vet rush yds

But when we look at receiving yards, we see a different story. If anything, rookie receivers were more effective in the early ’70s than they are today. When Russell Wilson became the fifth rookie to be announced as his team’s starting quarterback, I discussed the NFL’s youth movement at the position. There, I mentioned Chris Brown’s article on how the younger levels of football have become significantly better at developing quarterbacks and making them ready for the pro game sooner than ever. But you would think an emphasis on the passing game at younger levels would benefit receivers, too. That doesn’t appear to be the case. This next graph shows the same information as the first two graphs, but using receiving yards:

rk vet rec yds

So, I open this question up to the crowd: as more and more college teams do a better job of preparing receivers for the NFL, and more NFL teams are placing more receivers on the field (which I would think would help out rookies generally), why aren’t rookies seeing an increase in the total pie? The graphs above don’t break things down by position, but it’s not like rookie wide receivers can blame the running backs and tight ends for these results. Of the twenty-five wide receivers with the most receiving yards in 2012, none of them were rookies. To be fair, Justin Blackmon and T.Y. Hilton finished 26th and 27th, but the lack of high-end success is a bit surprising. I’ll close with a table showing the top rookie receiver in each season since the merger, as measured by receiving yards, and his rank in that statistic among wide receivers.

YearTop Rookie WRTeamYardsRank
2012Justin BlackmonJAX86526
2011A.J. GreenCIN105715
2010Mike WilliamsTAM96418
2009Percy HarvinMIN79031
2008Eddie RoyalDEN98022
2007Dwayne BoweKAN99521
2006Marques ColstonNOR103819
2005Reggie BrownPHI57149
2004Michael ClaytonTAM119312
2003Anquan BoldinARI13773
2002Antonio BryantDAL73341
2001Chris ChambersMIA88329
2000Darrell JacksonSEA71341
1999Kevin JohnsonCLE98629
1998Randy MossMIN13133
1997Rae CarruthCAR54553
1996Terry GlennNWE113211
1995Joey GallowaySEA103917
1994Darnay ScottCIN86625
1993James JettRAI77128
1992Arthur MarshallDEN49357
1991Lawrence DawseyTAM81830
1990Ricky ProehlPHO80226
1989Shawn CollinsATL86224
1988Sterling SharpeGNB79125
1987Ricky NattielDEN63027
1986Bill BrooksIND11317
1985Eddie BrownCIN94213
1984Louis LippsPIT86019
1983Willie GaultCHI83618
1982Charlie BrownWAS6905
1981Cris CollinsworthCIN100915
1980Art MonkWAS79723
1979Jerry ButlerBUF83423
1978John JeffersonSDG10014
1977Wesley WalkerNYJ74011
1976Sammy WhiteMIN9065
1975Alfred JenkinsATL76711
1974Charlie WadeCHI6837
1973Isaac CurtisCIN8434
1972Ahmad RashadSTL50027
1971Randy VatahaNWE8726
1970Ron ShanklinPIT69118

And, of course, the ability of the top rookie wide receiver to hold his value is another issue entirely.

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