Comments on: Previewing the Conference Championship Games http://www.footballperspective.com/previewing-the-conference-championship-games/ NFL History and Stats Mon, 03 Dec 2012 16:30:05 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Chase Stuart http://www.footballperspective.com/previewing-the-conference-championship-games/#comment-4195 Mon, 03 Dec 2012 16:30:05 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=4727#comment-4195 NIU won by 7 in OT…Stanford by 3….Tulsa by 6 in OT….Bama by 4….FSU by 6….Wisconsin by 49.

So I went 4-2, but I’d say NIU and Tulsa were both very lucky.

]]> By: George http://www.footballperspective.com/previewing-the-conference-championship-games/#comment-4115 Fri, 30 Nov 2012 22:53:34 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=4727#comment-4115 Great and informative post as usual. I decided to rig up an Elo based sheet (but working on scores rather than win/losses) so that I could rank College Football (because of the number of teams, I can’t do any of the options that I usually use on other sports involving Excel’s Solver, and don’t want to do a 739×739 team matrix to try and do something like Massey’s thesis method – it would be easy once it is set up but difficult to set up).

In short I’m not that convinced on the numbers that I got at the end of it (or how to interpret them but some seem reasonable and I think my workings are sound) but here’s what it came out with (using a K of 32, H of 15, and a logistic parameter of 1000 – might try and solve for one of these to find an optimal value if I can to minimise the difference between the Elo ratings and the actual game results);

Kent State 39
Northen Illinois 68.55

Alabama 104
Georgia 66.9

FSU 75.84
Georgia Tech 14.62

Stanford 44.4
UCLA 27.36

Central Florida 35.10
Tulsa 30.84

Wisconsin 26.86
Nebraska 42.71

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