Trivia: Single-Season Leaders in Net Rushing Yards

June 22, 2014 Rushing

At the end of my Seahawks-Saints playoff preview, I came up with (what I thought was) a pretty neat bit of trivia: New Orleans gained 4918 passing yards and allowed only 3105 passing yards. That 1813 yard difference is largest by any NFL team in history. The 1961 Oilers, led by George Blanda, Bill Groman, […]

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Fantasy Football: Quarterback By Committee 2014 (FBG)

June 21, 2014 Fantasy

For the eleventh straight years, I’ve written an Quarterback By Committee article for Footballguys.com. Here’s a quick peak at this year’s article: The general rule for QBBC fans is that the first six rounds of your draft should be used to assemble a wealth of talent at running back, wide receiver, and, if the draft […]

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Predictions in Review: AFC East

June 20, 2014 Review

During the 2013 offseason, I wrote 32 articles under the RPO 2013 tag. In my Predictions in Review series, I review those preview articles with the benefit of hindsight. Previously, I reviewed the AFC West, the NFC West, the AFC South, the NFC South, the AFC North, and the NFC North.  Today, the AFC East. […]

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The Smarter (Sigh) Football Betting Market

June 19, 2014 History

Economists (I am one) have historically been trained to believe in the efficiency of markets. The simplest way to think of this is that market prices capture all relevant information. Of course, this is sometimes not quite right, or even close to right. All the mortgage-backed securities that helped bring down our economy were horrendously […]

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The best and worst passing games of 2013

June 18, 2014 Passing

Yesterday, I analyzed the 2013 passing numbers for strength of schedule. Today, we look at the best and worst games of the year, from the perspectives of both the quarterbacks and the defenses. Let’s start with the top 100 passing games from 2014. The top spot belongs to Philadelphia’s Nick Foles, for his monstrous performance […]

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2013 Rearview Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt

June 17, 2014 Quarterbacks

Every year at Footballguys.com, I publish an article called Rearview QB, which adjusts the fantasy football statistics for quarterbacks (and defenses) for strength of schedule. I’ve also done the same thing for years (including last season) using ANY/A instead of fantasy points, which helps us fully understand the best and worst real life performances each […]

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Implied SRS Ratings of College Football Teams in 2014

June 16, 2014 College

The Simple Rating System is a set of computer rankings that is focused on only two variables: strength of schedule and margin of victory. I publish weekly college football SRS ratings each season, and you can read more about the SRS there. Last year, I took the Las Vegas point spreads for over 200 college […]

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Football Perspective Says Thank You On Its Second Birthday

June 15, 2014 Announcements

On June 15, 2012, I launched Football Perspective. Since that day, Football Perspective has posted at least one new article every single day. This is the site’s 856th post, so I won’t blame you if you’ve missed an article here or there. At the top of every page is a link to the Historical Archive, […]

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Weekend Trivia: Sack Differential

June 14, 2014 Defense

Last year, the Denver Broncos led the NFL in sack differential — that is, sacks recorded by the defense minus sacks allowed by the offense. Having Peyton Manning really helps, as the Broncos had essentially an average number of defensive sacks (41) but ranked first in offensive sacks (20). So Denver ranked 1st in 2013 […]

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The Greatest QB of All-Time V, Part III: Adjusted Dropbacks

June 13, 2014 Quarterbacks

The comments to Parts I and II of this series have been great, so let me start with a thank you. One of the more difficult parts of this process is comparing players across eras not just for efficiency, but for gross volume. In 2013, teams averaged 38.0 pass attempts (including sacks) per game, compared […]

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Joint Post: Talking Wide Receiver Size With Matt Waldman

June 12, 2014 Draft

Friend-of-the-program Matt Waldman had some thoughts on the topic of wide receiver size, and then asked if I could contribute with some data. Matt posted our joint effort on his Matt’s site, but I’m reproducing it below for the Football Perspective readers. On twitter, some asked if I could do a separate study on wide […]

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Previewing the World Cup by NFL Divisions

June 11, 2014 Uncategorized

The Super Bowl is a football competition decided by a series of single-elimination playoff games played after 32 teams attempt to qualify from eight groups of four teams each. That’s the World Cup, too! And just like the NFL, there are some not-so-good AFC South-ish groups and some very good NFC West-like groups. So let’s […]

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The Greatest QB of All-Time V, Part II: Career Rankings

June 10, 2014 G.O.A.T.

Yesterday, I explained the methodology behind the formula involved in ranking every quarterback season since 1960. Today, I’m going to present the career results. Converting season value to career value isn’t as simple as it might seem. Generally, we don’t want a player who was very good for 12 years to rank ahead of a […]

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The Greatest QB of All-Time V, Part I (Methodology)

June 9, 2014 G.O.A.T.

In 2006, I took a stab at ranking every quarterback in NFL history. Two years later, I acquired more data and made enough improvements to merit publishing an updated and more accurate list of the best quarterbacks the league has ever seen. In 2009, I tweaked the formula again, and published a set of career […]

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Trivia: The 2014 49ers And Their Star Receivers

June 8, 2014 Statistics

Colin Kaepernick won’t be hurting for weapons this year, which may be why San Francisco decided to give him a massive contract extension prior to the season. So will this be a career year for the young quarterback? Even if he plays well, he may not throw for 4,000 yards due to game script; after […]

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Fantasy Football: Quarterback Rearview FP/G (FBG)

June 7, 2014 Fantasy

Every year, I adjust quarterback statistics — both fantasy and traditional — for strength of schedule. Today, a look at my article at Footballguys.com where I adjust the 2013 numbers for each quarterback for the quality of the opposing defenses. On Monday, I’ll be doing the same for quarterbacks using Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. […]

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Andrew Luck and Quarterback Help

June 6, 2014 Quarterbacks

It’s no secret that Andrew Luck’s efficiency numbers aren’t quite up to par with his reputation. Over the past two seasons, Luck ranks just 18th in ANY/A, far behind some of the other young quarterbacks in the NFL. Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, and Colin Kaepernick rank in the top 6th in that metric, Robert Griffin […]

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Graphic: Interceptions, Passing Touchdowns, NY/A, and Wins From 1950 to 2013

June 5, 2014 History

It’s fun to play with weighted averages to see how the NFL has (or hasn’t) evolved. For example, the Giants led the league with interceptions: as a result, 5.8% of all interceptions thrown in the NFL last year were by Eli Manning or Curtis Painter. Since the Giants went 7-9 in 2013, that means 5.8% […]

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Yards per Target Relative to Teammates

June 4, 2014 Receiving

Josh Gordon led the league with 1,646 receiving yards last year. That’s impressive: perhaps even more impressive is that he did it on “only” 159 targets, meaning he averaged 10.35 yards per target.1 But the most impressive part, of course, was that he did it for the Browns. You know, the Browns, quarterbacked by a […]

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Overvalued? College Teammates and the Biggest Mistakes in the NFL Draft, Part 2

June 3, 2014 Draft

Last week, I wrote about whether having great college teammates might cause quarterbacks and wide receivers to be overvalued in the NFL draft. The results were inconclusive on the impact of teammates on quarterbacks, but they indicated that wide receivers who played with first-round QBs in college tended to underperform in the NFL relative to […]

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Analyzing the leaders in targets in 2013

June 2, 2014 Receiving

Comparing wide receivers across teams is tricky. Pierre Garcon led the NFL in targets,1 but that’s partially because Washington didn’t have much help at wide receiver.2 Vincent Jackson was 2nd in percentage of team targets (we’ll get to who was first in a few minutes) for a similar reason: Jackson is a very good receiver, […]

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Trivia: Receiving Yards per Game Over a Three-Year Period

June 1, 2014 Receiving

Over the last three years, Calvin Johnson has 5,137 receiving yards in 46 games.  That’s an average of 111.7 receiving yards per game, the most by any player over a three-year stretch in NFL history.  That mark comes with a bit of an asterisk, of course, as the Lions have attempted 2,040 passes since the […]

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A Starting Point for Running Back Projections in 2014 (FBG)

May 31, 2014 Fantasy

Last year, I provided a starting point for my running back projections. The idea is pretty simple: some fantasy statistics are much more repeatable, or sticky, than others. Over at Footballguys.com, I used the following formula to help isolate those factors: 1) Rushing Yards (R^2 = 0.47). The best-fit formula to predict rushing yards is: […]

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Does Rookie Performance Help Explain the Traditional Draft Value Chart?

May 30, 2014 Draft

Let’s get the disclaimer out of the way: the traditional draft value chart is outdated, and it never made much sense in the first place. Trying to use logic to explain why teams operate in an illogical manner is a tall task, and probably a waste of time. So, let’s try anyway. First, I recreated […]

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First Season in a New Stadium

May 29, 2014 History

This year, the Vikings will play their home games at the University of Minnesota’s TCF Bank Stadium. The Metrodome is no longer, and Minnesota will play outdoors for two years before moving into a new indoor facility in 2016. Should we expect the Vikings to struggle in 2014 in their temporary home? This scare piece […]

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Overvalued? College Teammates and the Biggest Mistakes in the NFL Draft

May 28, 2014 Draft

Do players get too much credit when teammates make them look good? Take Johnny Manziel. In the last thirty years, no quarterback has had teammates around him drafted so highly. Last year, his left tackle (Luke Joeckel) was the second pick in the draft. This year, his new left tackle (Jake Matthews) was the sixth […]

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Vegas Has The Seahawks As the Best Team in 2014

May 27, 2014 SRS

Last year, I derived implied SRS Ratings for each NFL team based on the initial Vegas point spreads. Well, lines have been set for the first 240 games of the year — i.e., every week but week 17 — which means we can re-run the exercise for 2014. So how do we use point spread […]

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Memorial Day 2014

May 26, 2014 History

It is the soldier, not the reporter, who has given us freedom of the press. It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us freedom of speech. It is the soldier, not the campus organizer, who has given us the freedom to demonstrate. It is the soldier, who salutes the flag, who serves […]

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Trivia: Rushing Yards with Multiple Franchises

May 25, 2014 Rushing

Only two players in NFL history have ever rushed for 5,000 yards with two teams. Can you name either of them? Here’s a couple of hints for the only player to rush for 5,300+ yards with two different teams. Here’s a couple of hints for the other player: One other player was really, really close. […]

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How to Project Receiving Yards in 2014 (FBG)

May 24, 2014 Fantasy

Last year, at Footballguys.com, I looked at the best starting point for wide receiver projections. Well, I’ve re-run the numbers and come up with the best starting point for wide receiver projections in 2014. The general philosophy is that receiving yards can be re-written using the following formula: Receiving yards = (Receiving Yards/Target) x (Targets/Team_Pass_Att) […]

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