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Teams that select quarterbacks in the first round of the draft generally struggled in the passing department prior year, although not as much as you might think. On average, these teams1 had a Relative ANY/A of -0.71, meaning those teams were 0.71 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt below average. For reference, that’s right about where the 2014 Bears finished, and Chicago ranked 27th in the NFL in ANY/A last year.

There have been 91 teams that have selected a quarterback in the first round of the regular NFL Draft since 1970; the Tampa Bay Bucs are almost certainly going to be the 92nd.2 Every once in awhile, a good passing team will dip its toes into the quarterback waters and select a passer in the first round. Over this time period, there have been eight teams that had a RANY/A of at least +1.0 and then selected a quarterback in the draft.

The 2005 Packers are not that team. In ’04, Green Bay behind Brett Favre had a RANY/A of +1.42, which didn’t stop the franchise from drafting Aaron Rodgers in the first round in the following draft. But there are four other teams that had an even better RANY/A the year before selecting a quarterback in the first round during this period. Can you name the team with the best RANY/A? [click to continue…]

  1. Since 1970, excluding quarterbacks taken in the supplemental draft, and including the 2015 Bucs. []
  2. Note: Kerry Collins, Tim Couch, and David Carr all were drafted by expansion teams in the first round. These examples are being deliberately excluded in this analysis. []
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Read one profile of an offensive lineman projected to go in the top ten of the draft and you’ve read them all. You’ll hear that the player is “one of the safest picks in the draft,” a future Pro Bowler, and someone “you can pencil into your starting lineup for the next decade and forget about.”

We know that quarterbacks are tough to project coming out of college: it’s the most challenging position to evaluate, so we’re told, and quarterback production is so dependent on things like system and teammates. Wide receivers are notoriously risky, too, while running backs have become devalued in recent years.

So the default safe offensive pick high in the draft is at tackle. But that hasn’t been working out so well in recent years. Not only have there been a number of underachievers, but top picks have produced some of the league’s worst starting linemen.

  • In 2014, Greg Robinson was the second pick in the draft. The Rams tackle rated as one of the worst offensive tackles last season according to Pro Football Focus.
  • Taylor Lewan was the 11th pick to the Titans. He began the season on the bench, first starting in week 6 against the Jaguars. Lewan started for six games, but missed the remainder of the season with an ankle injury.
  • In 2013, offensive tackles went in three of the first four picks! Eric Fisher was the first overall pick in the draft but has been a disastrous pick. Fisher was terrible at right tackle as a rookie, and no better as a left tackle last season. The Chiefs have been successful over this time period, limiting the media blowback, but the pick has been horrendous by first overall selection standards.

[click to continue…]


Colleges, The NFL Draft, and Heat Maps Since 1990

You may recall that last year, I looked at which college conferences dominate the NFL draft. Today, I want to look at which teams have dominated the draft since 1990.  And while there are no surprises, it’s fun to put numbers to what we all can sense.  Here’s what I did:

1) Using these draft values, assign a value to every pick in every draft from 1990 to 2014.

2) Calculate the amount of draft capital assigned to each college team by summing the values from each draft pick for each player from that college.

3) Create a heat map of the results, where red = more draft value and blue = less draft value.

Below are the top 75 schools in draft value created over the last 25 years.  You won’t be shocked to see that Florida State ranks 1st, with its players being worth 1,165 points of draft value over that span.  And with Jameis Winston headlining a host of Seminoles expected to be drafted this year, Florida State can probably comfortably settle into that top spot for the foreseeable future. [click to continue…]


In week 5, Carolina has a bye.

In week 10, Arizona has a bye.

In week 11, San Francisco has a bye.

And in week 12, Pittsburgh has a bye.

And each of those teams, in the week following that bye, play the Seahawks. That gives Seattle a league-high four opponents in 2015 coming off of their bye week. In addition, the Seahawks play the Rams in week 16, when St. Louis will be coming off of ten days’ rest, having played on Thursday Night Football against the Bucs in week 15. You can view the full schedule here.

There is one saving grace for the Seahawks: all five games take place in the friendly confines of CenturyLink Field. Is that a coincidence? Probably not, although don’t expect Seahawks fans to give the NFL the benefit of the doubt here.

Playing four opponents off of a bye is a lot (tho not unheard of). In fact, only one other team has more than two such games, and that’s Washington. In weeks 5, 6, and 11, the Jets, Bucs, and Giants have their respective byes. And those teams are Washington’s opponents in weeks 6, 7, and 8 (the Jets game is on the road; the other two are home games).

In week 8, New England plays on Thursday Night Football, and week 12 is Thanksgiving, when the Dallas annually plays. The Patriots and Cowboys play Washington in weeks 9 and 13, respectively, giving New England and Dallas extra rest before their Washington game, too.1

Seattle and Washington are the only teams in 2015 that play five games against teams coming off of extra rest. On the other hand, we have Tampa Bay and Carolina. Neither the Bucs nor the Panthers play a single opponent coming off of extra rest in 2015! Carolina has its bye before a trip to Seattle and a Thursday game (Thanksgiving) before a trip to New Orleans, so the extra rest on the team side (rather than the opponent side) could come in handy. Tampa Bay travels to Washington after its bye and hosts the Bears after the Thursday night game against the Seahawks, and well, the Bucs could use all the help they can get. [click to continue…]

  1. One might argue that in New England’s case, this is canceled out by the fact that Washington has a week 8 bye, so the Patriots get no advantage here. On the other hand, every team gets a bye, so if Washington’s one bye is neutralized, that appears to cancel out the, uh, canceling out. []

The 2015 NFL Schedule

The color-coded schedule is back!

Download the Excel file here

That Excel file contains full page and wallet-sized copies of the schedule, in both color and black and white. On the wallet-sized copies, the line between weeks 8 and 9 has been enlarged — that is where you want to fold the paper in half to put in your wallet.

iPhone page: http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015-iphone-schedule1.png

Go to that page on your phone, then hit your power and home button at the same time to take a photo (or hit the button on the middle of the Safari browser and click ‘save image.’) The schedule has been formatted to fit an iPhone screen, so you can always carry the schedule with you.

Of course, you don’t need an iPhone or Excel to view the NFL schedule: [click to continue…]


Bryan Frye, owner and operator of the great site nflsgreatest.co.nf, is back for another guest post. You can also view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link, and follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle.

I spent a few weeks this offseason parsing out quarterback spike and kneel numbers from post-2002 play by play data. Chase published the findings, which I believe are a useful resource when trying to assess a QB’s stats.1 Since I have the data available, I thought it would be good to use it.

Regular readers know Chase uses Adjusted Net Yards per pass Attempt as the primary stat for measuring quarterback performance.2 I am going to do something similar, but I am going to incorporate rushing contribution as well. This is something Chase talked about doing awhile ago, but we didn’t have the kneel or spike data available.3 I’ll call the end product Total Adjusted Yards per Play (TAY/P). The formula, for those curious:4

[Yards + Touchdowns*20 – Interceptions*45 – Fumbles*25 + First Downs*9] / Plays, where

Yards = pass yards + rush yards – sack yards + yards lost on kneels
Touchdowns = pass touchdowns + rush touchdowns
First Downs = (pass first downs + rush first downs) – touchdowns
Plays = pass attempts + sacks + rush attempts – spikes – kneels [click to continue…]

  1. For instance, 180 of Peyton Manning’s 303 rush attempts since 2002 have been kneels. He has lost 185 yard on those plays. Why in the world should we include those in his total output? Similarly, Ben Roethlisberger has spiked the ball 44 times, by far the most in the league since 2002. Why count those 44 “incomplete passes” in his completion rate? []
  2. It’s not perfect, but it’s at least easy to understand and calculate, and is not proprietary like DVOA, ESPN’s QBR, or PFF’s quarterback grades. []
  3. For another thing Chase wrote on combining rushing and passing data — while (gasp) analyzing Tim Tebow — click here. []
  4. I use 25 as the modifier for fumbles based on the idea that a QB fumble is worth roughly -50 yards, and fumble recovery is a 50/50 proposition. []

Which Defenses Are The Best At Recording Sacks?

In 2014, there were 17,879 pass attempts in the NFL, and another 1,212 dropbacks that ended up as quarterback sacks. Therefore, the 2014 NFL sack rate was 6.35%, as quarterbacks were sacked 1,212 times on 19,091 dropbacks.

The Buffalo Bills defense was fantastic in general last year, and even moreso with regards to sacks. Buffalo faced 613 opponent dropbacks last season; given the league average, we would “expect” the Bills to have recorded 38.9 sacks.1 In reality, Buffalo sacked opposing quarterbacks 54 times, or 15.1 more than “expected” last season. Only one other team, the Giants at +10.9, reached double digits in sacks over expectation.

The worst team, by a good measure, was Cincinnati. The Bengals faced 628 opponent dropbacks but recorded only 20 sacks! Using the league average as our guide, we would have expected Cincinnati to take down opposing passers about 39.9 times, which means the Bengals fell 19.9 sacks shy of expectation. Only Atlanta at -15.3 and Oakland at -13.6 were within shouting distance of the Bengals when it came to anemic pass rushing. [click to continue…]

  1. This is simply the product of 613 and 6.35%. []

In terms of NFL averages, completion percentage is way up, interception rate is way down, pass attempts are way up, and the passing game has never been more valuable. We all know that. But sometimes, when everyone is zigging, a lone team might be better off zagging.

The question here is does that theory apply to trying to build an offense that revolves around a power running game? Defenses are looking for lighter and faster defensive ends and linebackers who can excel in pass coverage; just about every defense is taking linebackers off the field for defensive backs more than they did a decade ago. And defenses spend the majority of their practice reps focusing on stopping the pass, too. As defenses try to become faster, quicker, and lighter — and better against the pass — should a team try to respond by developing a power running game?

On one hand, it’s tempting to say of course that model could work: just look at the Seahawks and Cowboys. Seattle does have a dominant running game, of course; what the Seahawks did to the Giants last year is not safe for work. But Seattle also has Russell Wilson, perhaps the most valuable player in the league when you combine production, position, and salary. And the best defense in the NFL. So yes, the Seahawks are successful with a power running game, but that’s not really a model other teams can follow. And for all the team’s success, Seattle doesn’t even have a very good offensive line, which would seem to be the number one focus for a team that is trying to build a power running attack.

The team with the best offensive line in the NFL is probably in Dallas. But the Cowboys also have Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, so again, that’s not really a model capable of imitation.

I’m thinking about some of the teams in the middle class of the AFC — the Bills, the Jets, the Browns, the Texans — teams that are currently trying the all defense, no quarterback approach. Finding a quarterback is the most difficult thing there is to do in the NFL, and these four teams can attest to that. By trading for LeSean McCoy, it appears as though Buffalo is trying to do what this article implies, but there are two problems with that plan. One, the Bills have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and two, McCoy is not necessarily the right guy to build a move-the-chains style of offense.

The Jets have invested a ton of money in their offensive line, courtesy of hitting on first round draft picks in 2006 with Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson, and spending to acquire mid-level free agents from Seattle (James Carpenter this year after Breno Giacomini last offseason). But the Jets offensive line is far from dominant, and the team isn’t really building around a power running game (the team’s top two tight ends are below-average blockers, and the Jets are investing more in wide receivers than running backs).

Houston is an interesting case, because the Texans led the NFL in rushing attempts last year. The Texans do have a very good run-blocking offensive line and Arian Foster, but it still feels like that’s just not enough. Houston’s efficiency numbers were harmed by giving carries to Alfred Blue — the Texans were 8-5 when Foster was active — but the team also doesn’t have much in the way of run blockers at tight end or fullback. [click to continue…]


Quarterback Trivia: Going 1-2 in the NFL Draft

It seems likely that Florida State’s Jameis Winston will be the first pick in the 2015 Draft. And if he isn’t the first pick, that will probably be because Oregon’s Marcus Mariota went first overall.

It’s been three years since Andrew Luck and RG3 went 1-2 at the top of the draft; in fact, Luck is the last quarterback to go first overall, with Jadeveon Clowney and Eric Fisher being selected at the top of the last two drafts. The graph below shows what draft pick was used on the first (in blue) and second (in red) quarterbacks drafted in each year since 1967. [click to continue…]


Brad Oremland is a longtime commenter and a fellow football historian. Brad is also a senior NFL writer at Sports Central. There are few who have given as much thought to the history of quarterbacks and quarterback ranking systems as Brad has over the years. Today, he’s contributed this guest post, but also is asking for your feedback. So please, help Brad and help us, in the comments, with your thoughts.

In recent weeks, Football Perspective has hosted some lively discussions about the greatest quarterbacks of all time. I like to think my approach to these issues is balanced, but it begins with statistics. I am always looking for ways to improve my analysis, and Chase has graciously invited me to post the results of my statistical rating system for quarterbacks.

This is not my personal list of the best quarterbacks in history. My subjective list differs, at time significantly, and I’ll post that next month. The list below is purely statistical, with three notable limitations:

1. It measures regular-season statistics only.

2. It covers the years 1946-2014. The modern quarterback position didn’t really exist prior to the mid 1940s.

2b. QBs who played prior to 1946 are omitted, even if they continued to play after the end of World War II. I don’t want a ranking that shows Sammy Baugh 65th, since it’s missing the first decade of his career. Players like Baugh, Sid Luckman, and Bob Waterfield are deliberately excluded.

3. Only seasons in the NFL, AFL, and AAFC count toward these rankings.

My purpose in posting this list is to ask for help. There are a lot of smart readers and commenters at this site, and I want you to critique my results.

I’m not showing my work yet: I’m not looking for a critique of my process, but of my results. Who’s too high? Who’s too low? You can identify individual players, or patterns. Wherever you think I messed up, I want to hear about it. Please keep in mind, though, that this is purely a stat-based list. It doesn’t represent my opinion, and it’s not slanted toward or against individual players or teams.

But just because this system is unbiased, that doesn’t make it perfect. It is definitely not perfect. But I’m comfortable making subjective adjustments, and that may create blind spots that prevent me from improving the formula. I’m asking you to evaluate the list below and judge where you think it is counterintuitive or inaccurate.

Are players from the ’70s overrated? Are contemporary players underrated? What about players from good teams, and players from bad teams? Are running QBs overrated? Underrated? How about game managers vs. downfield bombers? Is the system fair to them? Are one-year wonders overrated? Are compilers overrated? Players who threw a lot of TDs, a lot of interceptions, players who got sacked a lot? Wherever you think the system is off, I’m eager for your feedback.

Hopefully you find this list interesting, and you can expect a fuller explanation of my rankings in the future, but in the meantime, I appreciate your input and assistance. I included each player’s numerical score, which I realize isn’t in context yet, but it can give you a more precise idea than a simple ranking. Troy Aikman, Donovan McNabb, and Joe Namath, for instance, are effectively tied. Below are the top 125 QBs of the modern era, as ranked by my stat-based system: [click to continue…]


The Safety Championship Belt, Part IV

On Monday, we began our journey through the history of the Safety Championship Belt — i.e., who held the title of best safety in each year from 1950 to 1970. And then on Tuesday, we revealed the winners from 1971 to 1990.  Yesterday brought us from 1991 to 2002. Today, the final twelve years.

2003: Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys / Rodney Harrison, New England Patriots

Hey, for eight months, Buster Douglas was once the best boxer in the land, too. Williams became something of a punch line over time, and his five Pro Bowl selections only show how that honor can devolve into little more than a name recognition contest. But there once was a time when the Oklahoma Roy Williams was a dominant player, and that time was 2003. At his best, Williams was as feared as any safety in the league, a physical player who was essentially a linebacker playing in the defensive backfield. While Ray Lewis justifiably ran away with the Defensive Player of the Year award that season, Houston’s John McClain actually selected Williams as his top defender in all of football in 2003.

The ’03 Cowboys, you might forget, finished in the top four in most major categories on defense, including points allowed, yards allowed, first downs allowed, passing yards allowed, net yards per attempt allowed, rushing yards allowed, and yards per carry allowed. Here’s another way to put it: the team went 10-6 with Quincy Carter at quarterback.

For all the success he had with New England, whenever I think of Rodney Harrison my mind goes to what he and Junior Seau did on the ’98 Chargers. That team had the 3rd worst Relative ANY/A of any team in the last 20 years,1 as Ryan Leaf and Craig Whelihan shared the quarterback duties. Seau and Harrison were seemingly the only thing keeping the Chargers from 0-16, and the duo guided San Diego to a first-place ranking in yards allowed.

That’s a small diversion to remind you about how good Harrison was on a bad team; in New England, we saw how valuable he could be on a good one.  Harrison had “only” three interceptions and three sacks in 2003, but he added two more interceptions in a dominant run during the playoffs.  Harrison was a first-team All-Pro selection by the AP and Dr. Z, and Peter King chose Harrison as his DPOY (King wasn’t on an island here; Rick Gosselin at the Dallas Morning News had Harrison as his runner-up to Lewis, and Ira Miller at the San Francisco Chronicle also picked Harrison as the best defender in football.)

Just about everyone who didn’t pick Williams or Harrison as the best safety in football in ’03 selected our next player, who clearly took over the title the following year. [click to continue…]

  1. Ahead of only the ’05 49ers and ’10 Panthers. []

The Safety Championship Belt, Part III

On Monday, we began our journey through the history of the Safety Championship Belt — i.e., identifying who held the title of best safety in football in each year from 1950 to 1970. Yesterday, we continued from 1971 to 1990.  Today, we pick back up with a familiar name at the top of the list.

1991: Ronnie Lott, Los Angeles Raiders

In ’91, Lott moves to Los Angeles and donned the silver and black, the perfect look for one of the game’s most ferocious hitters.  The move revitalized his career, as Lott switched positions from free to strong safety.  The move worked, as he registered 93 tackles and a league-high 8 interceptions.  Four of the major services (Associated Press, Pro Football Writers, Pro Football Weekly, and Sporting News) named Lott a first-team All-Pro, but there were more honors in store for the 31-year-old.

The NFL’s Players Association named him Defensive Back of the Year, while the Washington Post and Newsday named him Comeback Player of the Year (while Lott was an All-Pro in ’90, he missed substantial time with knee injuries, and the 49ers allowed him to move on in part because they thought Lott was essentially done). He even finished tied for fourth with Derrick Thomas for the AP Defensive Player of the Year award (behind Pat Swilling, Seth Joyner, and Reggie White).  And Tom Ford at the Tampa Tribune named Lott the AFC Defensive Player of the Year.

One other safety also was named first-team All-Pro by four different organizations in 1991, but he would have to wait a year to earn the championship belt.

1992: Steve Atwater, Denver Broncos

Atwater and Lott were neck-and-neck for the title of best safety of ’91; the same could be said of Atwater and Buffalo’s Henry Jones in ’92.  But Atwater absolutely deserves a spot on our list somewhere, and by ’92, he had established himself as among the elite. If you want to take the longer view, the Broncos star safety was one of the game’s best defenders for a decade. [click to continue…]


The Safety Championship Belt, Part II

Yesterday, we began our journey through the history of the Safety Championship Belt: i.e., the history of who was the titleholder of “Best Safety in Football” in each year from 1950 to 1970. Today, the next twenty years.

1971-1972: Bill Bradley, Philadelphia Eagles

At the University of Texas, Bradley was a running quarterback and punter before moving to defensive back. That position was a natural fit for Bradley, who would become the best safety in the NFL during the early ’70s.  In 1971, he led the NFL with 11 interceptions and 248 return yards, and was a first-team All-Pro choice by the Associated Press, Pro Football Writers, and Pro Football Weekly (the NEA selected Rick Volk and Paul Krause that year).  In ’72, Bradley’s nine interceptions led the league, and he was a unanimous first-team All-Pro selection (AP, PFW, PFW, and NEA).  Bradley would make the Pro Bowl in ’73, but his career arc had peaked in ’72.

1972 (Super Bowl): Jake Scott, Miami Dolphins

Scott was named the MVP of Super Bowl VII, capping the team’s 17-0 season. That’s worth a mention, particularly given the fact that Scott was a Pro Bowler every year from ’71 to ’75, and was named a first-team All-Pro by at least one organization in the last four of those years. He was probably the second or third best safety each of those seasons, so the Super Bowl MVP means he earns at least an honorable mention here. Scott was one of two safeties that made the AP All-Pro team in ’73, but that year, he wasn’t even the best safety on his own team. [click to continue…]


The Safety Championship Belt, Part I

Bill Barnwell, among others, has written about “championship belts” at different positions, with the idea that the title of best player at position X can be passed around like a heavyweight belt. With the retirement of Troy Polamalu last week, there has been some discussion as to whether the Steelers is the greatest safety of all time (for some convincing arguments to the contrary, you can read Neil Paine’s take here).

As complicated as it is to evaluate quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, that’s child’s play compared to comparing individual defensive players. Who is the greatest safety of all time? That’s an even more impossible question to answer, so I’m not going to even try. Instead, today and tomorrow, I’m going to look at who held the unofficial title of best safety in the league over the last 65 years. [click to continue…]


Which Running Backs Played With Best Passing Games?

Payton played with some terrible passing attacks

Payton played with some terrible passing attacks

Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is the best simple measure of quarterback play. ANY/A is defined as (Gross Passing Yards + 20 * PassTDs – 45 * INTs – Sack Yards Lost) divided by (Pass Attempts + Sacks).  Relative ANY/A, or RANY/A, is simply ANY/A minus league average.

I looked at the 100 players with the most rushing yards in football history.  Then, for each player, I calculated the average weighted RANY/A of the offenses he played on.  As usual, to come up with a career grade, I gave more weight to a player’s best seasons.  If a running back had 18% of his rushing yards come in one season, well his team’s RANY/A for that year was responsible for 18% of his career RANY/A grade.

For example, in 2001, the good Jake Plummer showed up for the Cardinals, and Arizona had a RANY/A of +0.53.  But since Thomas Jones rushed for only 380 yards that year — just 3.6% of his career total — only 3.6% of his career RANY/A is based on the +0.53.  Conversely, Jones set a career high with 1,402 rushing yards in ’09 for the Jets, representing 13.2% of his career total.  New York, behind a rookie Mark Sanchez, had a RANY/A of -1.69 that year, which matters a lot more when calculating Jones’ career grade.  In fact, Jones played with bad passing offenses for most of his career: as it turns out, among all players in the top 100, it’s Jones who played with the worst passing offenses in his career. [click to continue…]


Weekend Trivia: Two All-Pro Safeties

The last three seasons, Seattle’s Earl Thomas has been named a first-team All-Pro by the Associated Press, among others.  In each of the last two years, his teammate at the safety position, Kam Chancellor, was a second-team honoree from the AP. Last year, Thomas was a runaway selection, while Chancellor was just two votes shy of being a first-team choice (which made up for the joke that was the AP second-team All-Pro safety situation from ’13).

Over the course of football history, there have been several organizations that have awarded All-Pro teams.  Principal among those have been the Associated Press, the Sporting News, the Newspaper Enterprise Association, the Pro Football Writers Association, and Pro Football Weekly.  Can you name the last time that any one of those organizations named two safeties from the same team as first-team All-Pros? [click to continue…]

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Andre Johnson’s Career in Houston

For a change, Colts fans won't hate this guy

For a change, Colts fans won’t hate this guy

In twelve seasons in Houston, Andre Johnson gained 13,597 receiving yards. Johnson was drafted by the Texans with the 3rd overall pick in 2003, and has played every game of his career with Houston. That will change in 2015, as Johnson signed with the Colts in March.

Does that sound like a lot of yards to you? Put it this way: only Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison have ever gained more yards in a 12-year period with one team. And Johnson is as synonymous with Houston as any wide receiver has been with any team (including Reggie Wayne, who Johnson will be replacing in Indianapolis). [click to continue…]


Last week, I looked at how many top carries needed to be removed in order to bring the best running backs below league average. Today, I want to do the same thing, but for quarterbacks, using pass attempts.1

Aaron Rodgers averaged 7.7 net yards per attempt last year, the best rate in all of football. But as it turns out, he’s not the leader in this metric. You may be surprised to learn that one “only” needs to remove Rodgers’ 15 best pass plays to bring his NY/A average below the 2014 league average rate of 6.35. Meanwhile, you have to remove 19 of Peyton Manning’s top plays to bring his 7.5 NY/A average below league average. That’s because Rodgers’ ten best pass plays went for 642 yards, while Peyton Manning’s top ten pass completions gained 499 yards.2

Regular readers know the drill; if you need more info on how to read the table, check last week’s post. The table below displays all quarterbacks who had at least 100 dropbacks last season and finished with a NY/A average above 6.35; the final column displays how many of each player’s top pass attempts need to be removed to bring his NY/A average below league average.

Peyton Manning61446087.519
Ben Roethlisberger64247657.4215
Aaron Rodgers54742097.6915
Tony Romo46534657.4512
Drew Brees68747716.9410
Andrew Luck64345837.1310
Matt Ryan65844946.837
Philip Rivers60440856.766
Ryan Fitzpatrick33323897.176
Kirk Cousins21216407.746
Eli Manning62942276.724
Joe Flacco57438346.684
Brian Hoyer46331776.864
Mark Sanchez33022696.884
Tom Brady60539696.563
Andy Dalton50432826.512
Russell Wilson49232376.582
Drew Stanton25116456.552
Carson Palmer23315636.712
Nick Foles32120916.511
Zach Mettenberger19612746.51
Colt McCoy1459476.531

I’ll again leave the commentary to you guys.

  1. The same caveat from last time applies: because I used the play-by-play logs to conduct this exercise, there may be slight differences between the numbers in this table and the official numbers. []
  2. It also helped Manning’s cause that he had more dropbacks. []

Cornerback Targets

According to Pro Football Focus, Richard Sherman was targeted just 65 times last season. That number is even more remarkably low when you consider that Sherman was in on 552 pass plays for the Seahawks last season.

We all know that Sherman generally sticks to the defense’s left side of the field; as a result, offenses tend to put their best wide receiver on the offense’s left, in order to avoid having to throw at Sherman. But that’s what I want to look at today: which cornerbacks are targeted the least?

Based on data from Pro Football Focus, the average cornerback was targeted on 16.4% of his pass snaps last year. That means an average cornerback would be expected to see about 90.5 targets on 552 snaps; in other words, Sherman saw 25.5 fewer targets than we would expect.

That’s the most impressive number of any cornerback in the league last year, with “impressive” here being a synonym for not being targeted. The second largest number belongs to Darrelle Revis, which perhaps isn’t much of a surprise, either. While with the Patriots, Revis was targeted 79 times on 606 pass snaps, or 20.4 fewer targets than we would expect.

The table below shows that data for each cornerback that was in on at least 175 snaps last season: [click to continue…]


Running Back Heat Maps

Commenter Dan had a good suggestion: what if we create heat maps for each running back, with color-coding to depict how often a player gained at least X amount of yards?

Well, ask, and ye shall receive. I looked at all running backs with at least 100 carries in 2014, and then measured on what percent of their runs did each running back gain at least 0 yards, at least 1 yard, at least 2 yards, etc., up to 10 yards. I also calculated the percentage of runs that went for at least 15+ and at least 20+ yards. [click to continue…]


On Friday, I asked the question: how many carries would we need to take away from DeMarco Murray in order to drop his YPC average to at or below league average?

Today, I want to look at it from the other side. How many of Trent Richardson’s worst carries would we need to erase to bring his YPC above league average? For this experiment, assume that we are sorting each running back’s carries in ascending order by yards gained. I’ll give you a moment to think about the answer.

[Final Jeopardy Music]

[Keep thinking…]

[Are you ready?]

[Your time is now up. Post your answer in the comments!] [click to continue…]


Re-Post: Data Snooping

In lieu of weekend trivia, I am going to begin reposting old articles that I think people would still find relevant. If you’re a new reader, I hope you enjoy; if you’re an old-timer, my hunch is you still will get something new out of reading these again, just like I did. Today’s post is on Data Snooping, originally posted by me in June 2013.

Reggie Wayne dominates when seeing blue

Reggie Wayne dominates when seeing blue.

Over the last few years, the football analytics movement has made tremendous progress. There are many really smart people with access to a large amount of useful information who have helped pioneer the use of statistics and analytics in football. Major news organizations and NFL teams seem to be embracing this movement, too. Unfortunately, there are some less-than-desirable side effects as the reward for presenting “statistical information” seems larger than ever.

Data snooping is the catch-all term used to describe a misuse of data mining techniques. There are perfectly legitimate uses to data-mining, but data snooping is a big ‘no-no’ for the legitimate statistician. If the researcher does not formulate a hypothesis before looking at the data, but instead uses the data to suggest what the hypothesis should be, then he or she is data snooping. [click to continue…]


On Tuesday, I looked at the fantastic rookie class of wide receivers that entered the NFL last year. But in that post, I focused on receiving yards; in fact, the group was even more incredible when it comes to receiving touchdowns.

Rookie wide receivers caught an astounding 92 touchdowns last year, highlighted by Odell Beckham and Mike Evans each snatching a dozen scores. In addition, Kelvin Benjamin (9), Martavis Bryant (8), Jordan Matthews (8), Sammy Watkins (6), Allen Hurns (6), John Brown (5) and Jarvis Landry (5) each caught at least five touchdowns.

Let’s put that number in perspective. Second-year wide receivers caught just 43 touchdowns last year, while third-year and fourth-year wideouts each caught 59 touchdowns. Players from the class of 2010 caught 72, the second highest amount of any class last year. Take a look: [click to continue…]


DeMarco, how many Cowboys fans still think you're great?

DeMarco, how many Cowboys fans still think you’re great?

DeMarco Murray was really, really good last year. He rushed 393 times for 1,845 yards, producing a strong 4.69 YPC average. Jamaal Charles was also really, really good — he averaged 5.07 yards per rush last year, albeit on “only” 205 carries. The NFL average yards gained per rush was 4.16 last season, down a tick from in previous years. But that brings us to the question of the day:

Suppose we sort each running back’s carries in descending order by yards gained. How many carries would we need to take away from Murray in order to drop his YPC average to at or below league average? Same question for Charles. I’ll give you a moment to think about this one.

[Final Jeopardy Music]

[Keep thinking…]

[Are you ready?]

[Your time is now up. Post your answer in the comments!]
[click to continue…]


Since 1970, there have been just nine times where two teams agreed on a trade knowing that it was for the first overall draft pick. Will a trade up for Jameis Winston make number ten? Let’s go in reverse chronological order and look at every instance since the AFL-NFL merger when the first overall pick was traded:

2004: Giants trade up to acquire Eli Manning

New York trades the rights to Philip Rivers (the fourth pick), the first pick in the third round (Nate Kaeding), a 2005 first round pick (Shawne Merriman) and a 2005 fifth round pick (Jerome Collins) to San Diego for the rights to Manning

This one technically wouldn’t count as a trade of the first overall pick, because San Diego selected Manning before trading him. But I am counting it because it this meets the spirit of the question. Prior to the draft, the Chargers and Giants had been in a standoff on compensation, and San Diego upped the ante by actually selecting Manning. New York gave up an enormous haul to move up three spots in the draft, and the Chargers then hit on the additional picks they received (Merriman went to three Pro Bowls; Kaeding went to two). The Chargers flipped the pick that became Collins for Roman Oben, who started 24 games at tackle for San Diego. On top of that, many will view Rivers as the best player in the deal, but this is one of the few trades where I suspect each team is happy with the trade.

2001: Atlanta trades up to select Michael Vick.

Falcons trade the 5th pick (LaDainian Tomlinson), third round pick (Tay Cody), and 2002 second round pick (Reche Caldwell) to San Diego for the first overall pick

At the time, it felt like an enormous haul was being given to acquire Vick, but this is actually less compensation than San Diego would get from the Giants three years later. Vick obviously never reached his full potential in Atlanta, while the Chargers were able to acquire the best running back of his generation. Oh, and they did pretty well when they snagged a quarterback at the top of the second round, too.

1997: St. Louis trades up to select Orlando Pace

Rams trade the 6th pick, third round pick (Dan Neil), fourth round pick (Terry Day), and seventh round pick (Koy Detmer) to New York for the first overall pick

The Jets had the first pick for the second year in a row, going 1-15 a year after selecting Keyshawn Johnson. Things would have turned out much differently if a certain Tennessee quarterback had decided to declare for the draft after his junior year, but as of this time, the Manning family was not yet focused on being in New York.

With the luster on the first pick gone, the Jets — now under the management of Bill Parcells — chose to trade down and rebuild. The Rams didn’t have to offer all that much to move up six spots in the draft, as the top six or so players were all generally considered to be in the same tier. Things worked out nicely for the Rams, as the team went to two Super Bowls during Pace’s standout career, winning one in 1999.

The Jets then traded down from 6th to 8th, acquiring a fourth round pick (Leon Johnson) from the Bucs in the process. The Jets finally selected James Farrior, who a role player but not a star during his Jets career (before a decade of strong play in Pittsburgh). Tampa Bay sent the 6th pick to Seattle in exchange for the 12th pick (Warrick Dunn) and the third pick in the third round (Frank Middleton); while the Bucs hits on those picks, the Seahawks were the big winners, trading up to select Walter Jones.

1995: Cincinnati trades up to select Ki-Jana Carter

Bengals trade the 5th pick (Kerry Collins) and the 36th pick (Shawn King) to Carolina for the first overall pick

Cincinnati had the 1st pick in 1994 and used it on Dan Wilkinson; the Bengals then went 3-13. But because the Panthers and Jaguars were entering the NFL, that only entitled Cincinnati to the 5th pick.  The Bengals running game was putrid in ’94, with Derrick Fenner, Steve Broussard, and Harold Green combining for just 1,094 yards and 4 touchdowns on 311 carries (3.5 YPC) as part of a three-headed attack.

Carter rushed 198 times for 1,539 yards and 23 touchdowns during his junior year at Penn State, culminating in a 21-carry, 156-yard, 3-touchdown performance in a Rose Bowl win over Oregon, capping a perfect 11-0 season for the Nittany Lions. Carter’s next game would be much worse. On the third carry of his first preseason game, he tore his ACL, causing him to miss the entire 1995 season.

He struggled in 1996, the days of when a torn ACL was really a two-year injury. In the third game of the ’97 season, he rushed 13 times for 104 yards, but tore his rotator cuff. He would later miss nearly all of ’98 with a broken wrist, while ’99 was lost with a dislocated right kneecap.

The trade obviously didn’t work out for Cincinnati, although in an odd twist, he actually lasted longer in Cincinnati than Collins did with the Panthers. Carolina was happy to grab Carter’s teammate with the 5th pick in the draft, but an immature Collins wore out his welcome in Carolina. Of course, he would turn things around, and wind up playing for 17 seasons. King, a defensive end from LSU, started just ten games in his four year career, and only two of those starts came with the Panthers. This was a trade with no winners.

1991: Dallas trades up for Russell Maryland

Cowboys trade Ron Francis, David Howard, Eugene Lockhart, the 11th pick (Pat Harlow) and a second round pick (Jerome Henderson) to the Patriots for the first overall pick

The Cowboys under Jimmy Johnson were not shy about taking Hurricanes that Johnson had coached at Miami.  Here, Dallas sent the 11th pick and a bunch of spare parts1 to move up ten slots, as the Patriots were desperate to retool their roster. Maryland had a good but not great career: he played for ten years, mostly as a starter, and was a force in the middle.   But he was rarely dominant, and never had more than 4.5 sacks in a single season. Basically everything the early ’90s Patriots was a failure, this trade included.  Harlow was a nondescript starting tackle for four years in New England, while Henderson made just ten starts with the Patriots.

The other part of the story here concerned Rocket Ismail, the Notre Dame star receiver who was the consensus best player in the draft. That is, until Ismail decided to head to the CFL for more money. The Cowboys thought they might convince Ismail to come to Dallas instead of New England, but after the Toronto Argonauts offered more money, Dallas settled on Maryland. [click to continue…]

  1. Francis never played for the Patriots, Howard started 15 games over two years, and Lockhart started 21 games in two seasons. []

Stafford wins the prize for best quarterback drafted by the Lions since 2000

Stafford wins the prize for best quarterback drafted by the Lions since 2000

There are some teams — the Lions, Jaguars, and Raiders come to mind — that have spent most of the last 15 years looking for their next quarterback of the future. And others that seem to ignore the position in the draft, either because they found a Tom Brady or Tony Romo in a haystack (to go along with some Drew Bledsoe) or organizational indifference to drafting quarterbacks (Chiefs, Saints).

Today, I want to quantify those numbers. At the top of every page at Football Perspective is a link to the Draft Pick Value Calculator, based on the values derived here and shown here. If we assign each draft pick its proper value, and then sum the values used to select quarterbacks by each team over the last 15 years, we can see which teams have devoted the most draft capital on quarterbacks.

Here’s how to read the chart below. Detroit leads the way in draft capital spent. The Lions have only selected five quarterbacks, but spent 78.4 points of Draft Value on passers. That averages out to 15.68 points of draft value spent on each quarterback, the second highest (to Jacksonville) among the 32 teams. The far right column displays each quarterback selected in the draft since 2000. [click to continue…]


The 2014 Class of Rookie Wide Receivers

In December, I provided a quick look at rookie receiving production, and noted that an unusually large amount of receiving yards had come from first-year players. In that study, I lumped all rookies together, but today, the focus will be on only wide receivers.

And the 2014 season was an incredible one for rookie wide receivers. Odell Beckham was unsurprisingly named the Offensive Rookie of the Year by the AP, with a rookie-high 1,305 receiving yards. Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans and Carolina’s Kelvin Benjamin each topped 1,000 yards, while Sammy Watkins (982), Jordan Matthews (872), and Jarvis Landry (758) all had seasons that would stand out as special in many other years.

The depth of the class was impressive, too: John Brown (696), Allen Hurns (677), Taylor Gabriel (621), Brandin Cooks (550), Martavis Bryant (549), Allen Robinson (548) all topped 500 yards, while Davante Adams, Donte Moncrief and Marqise Lee all hit the 400-yard mark.

Collectively, rookie wide receivers recorded 12,611 receiving yards last year, the most of any class year in the NFL in 2014. The graph below shows the number of receiving yards from wide receivers from each class (i.e., 1st year, 2nd year, 3rd year, etc.) in the NFL in 2014: [click to continue…]

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Free Agency, and the Most Improved Teams

There are a lot of articles out there that suggests free agency is over-rated (as usual, Neil Paine has one of the better ones). But today I want to look at the question from a different perspective: instead of looking at how teams who are active in free agency have fared, what is we look at what free agent veterans were added by the teams that improved the most?

Last Wednesday, I looked at regression to the mean and team wins. I looked at the team that improved the most in each of the last 10 years, and then examined which free agents they added in that off-season. The results:

2014 Cowboys (12 Actual Wins; 8.0 Expected Wins, +4.0): DE Jeremy Mincey (Denver/Jacksonville), LB Rolando McClain (Baltimore), and DT Henry Melton (Chicago) were the only veteran additions of note. [click to continue…]


I previously looked at points per game by each quarterback in his starts and points per game allowed by each quarterback in his starts. Please check there for the fine print.

Today, we put it all together, for a list of points differential per game in games started by each quarterback.

RkQuarterbackGPFPAPDWLTWin %WinOv.500Last Yr
1Otto Graham8326.7814.4212.36661610.801501955
2Russell Wilson5625.8415.7310.11421400.75282014
3Tom Brady23627.8618.8691815500.7671262014
4Daryle Lamonica9726.6217.898.73702160.753491973
5Roger Staubach13123.8215.318.52963500.733611979
6Aaron Rodgers11428.520.987.52763800.667382014
7Joe Montana18724.6317.357.271335400.711791994
8Terry Bradshaw17722.8515.687.171215600.684651983
9Steve Young15725.7618.846.921025500.65471999
10Bart Starr16722.9916.686.311035860.635451971
10Bob Waterfield2527.9221.846.08151000.651952
11Johnny Unitas19424.3618.535.831246640.649581973
12Len Dawson16723.5117.85.72996080.617391975
13Don Meredith8926.6121.045.56493640.573131968
13Don Strock2324.52195.5216700.69691988
14Danny White10225.2319.735.5673500.657321987
15Peyton Manning28026.9221.535.391909000.6791002014
16Joe Flacco12723.6818.345.34824500.646372014
17Ben Roethlisberger17323.6118.45.211165700.671592014
18Jim McMahon10320.7515.595.16703300.68371994
19Mark Rypien8523.3818.484.89523300.612191995
20Philip Rivers15325.6320.764.86926100.601312014
21Frank Ryan9024.8420.184.67582930.661291968
22Donovan McNabb17722.9218.284.641076910.607382011
23Rich Gannon13824.219.574.63795900.572202004
24Charlie Conerly9221.7817.324.47583310.636251961
25Norm Van Brocklin10526.7422.294.46633840.619251960
26Bob Griese16221.1516.774.38986130.614371980
27Brett Favre32224.0719.754.3219912300.618762010
28Pat Haden6020.2716.054.22372210.625151981
29Kurt Warner12826.6622.464.2755300.586222009
30Ken Stabler15822.5118.424.091035410.655491983
31Jack Kemp11123.319.214.09674130.617261969
32Jim Kelly17723.219.184.031106700.621431996
32Don Heinrich3720.7316.74.03221320.62291962
33Troy Aikman18021.9418.013.941057500.583302000
34Earl Morrall10720.9717.043.93673730.64301975
35Drew Brees21226.6622.763.91238900.58342014
35James Harris4419.0715.23.86261800.59181978
36John Elway25223.2719.433.841628910.645731998
36Rudy Bukich382319.213.79211430.59271966
36Dieter Brock1720.0616.293.7612500.70671985
37David Woodley5821.6717.933.74372010.647171985
37Colin Kaepernick4523.62203.62291600.644132014
37Steve Bono4320.8117.213.6281500.651131998
38Joe Theismann13221.9618.373.59834900.629341985
39Elvis Grbac7322.4118.883.53413200.56292001
40Randall Cunningham14423.0619.563.5855810.594272001
41Bobby Layne13923.7320.243.48835240.612311962
42Jay Fiedler6320.7317.323.41382500.603132004
42Nick Foles252723.683.32151000.652014
43Milt Plum10421.718.523.18564260.567141967
44Tony Romo12925.2822.13.18775200.597252014
45Roman Gabriel15921.318.382.91866670.563201976
46Brad Johnson12521.3818.52.88725300.576192008
46Pat Ryan2123.8120.952.8612900.57131989
46Johnny Lujack2022.5519.72.8513700.6561951
47Andy Dalton6823.1320.512.62402710.596132014
47Tarvaris Jackson3522.2919.692.6171800.486-12011
48Phil Simms16920.317.732.571016800.598331993
49Steve Grogan13822.3819.862.52756300.543121990
49Bobby Thomason4220.3618.052.31192210.464-31957
50Dan Marino25823.0420.752.2915510300.601521999
51Doug Flutie6820.7418.52.24383000.55982004
52Brian Griese8322.0419.862.18453800.54272008
53Y.A. Tittle13924.3922.212.18785650.579221964
54Matt Ryan11524.322.132.17674800.583192014
55George Blanda10725.2323.12.13555110.51941968
56Kordell Stewart8620.1718.052.13503600.581142003
56Bob Lee3217.9715.842.13201200.62581977
57Mike Tomczak7820.7218.672.05453300.577121999
58Steve McNair16321.7219.692.03966700.589292007
59Ken Anderson17821.3119.292.03938500.52281985
59Shaun King2719.5217.522151200.55632004
59Virgil Carter3120.3518.352161500.51611975
60Jake Delhomme10421.7319.781.95614300.587182010
61Craig Morton15419.1417.251.89866710.562191982
61Tommy O'Connell212018.191.8111820.57131961
61Jeff Kemp3020.919.11.8161310.5531991
62Jeff Hostetler8821.0619.311.75553300.625221997
63Ron Jaworski15119.0617.321.74777310.51341989
64Dave Krieg18421.3419.731.61018300.549181996
65Bobby Hebert10321.2619.681.58564700.54491996
66Rex Grossman5121.920.331.57272400.52932011
66Shaun Hill3422.0620.51.56161800.471-22014
67Joe Kapp5219.1517.61.56262330.52931970
68Mark Brunell16121.6120.081.53837800.51652009
69Trent Green11525.0723.581.49565900.487-32008
70John Hadl16921.9620.531.43827890.51241977
71Mark Sanchez7622.2620.921.34413500.53962014
72Jay Schroeder10420.1618.871.3644000.615241994
73Alex Smith10821.2119.941.28584910.54292014
74Andrew Luck5424.823.541.26361800.667182014
75Stan Humphries8721.6220.41.22533400.609191997
76Drew Bledsoe19920.7419.541.21019800.50832006
76Brian Hoyer172220.821.1810700.58832014
76Matt Cavanaugh1920.7919.631.1681100.421-31986
77Eli Manning17823.6222.481.15997900.556202014
77Jim Miller2820.14191.14151300.53622002
78Chad Pennington8720.6419.531.11464100.52952010
79Vince Young5121.5920.491.1312000.608112011
79Gary Cuozzo4118.8517.761.1212000.51211972
79Matt Moore2318.6517.740.91111200.478-12011
79Jim Ninowski3120.0319.190.84151510.501968
80Ed Brown9921.9721.190.78553950.581161964
81Neil O'Donnell10719.8719.120.75584900.54292003
82Dan Fouts17823.7723.030.74898810.50311987
83Gary Danielson6120.4819.750.72283210.467-41988
84Billy Kilmer12120.1719.480.69635710.52561978
85Kyle Orton8220.7320.060.67424000.51222014
86Cam Newton6522.8222.250.57313310.485-22014
87David Garrard7821.6521.090.56403800.51322010
88Bill Nelsen7922.8122.270.54423430.55181972
89Wade Wilson7421.5521.010.54383600.51421998
89John Roach1922.0521.530.5371110.395-41964
90Michael Vick11522.2321.760.47615310.53582014
91Fran Tarkenton25021.420.940.4613011460.532161978
92Warren Moon21321.921.450.4610510800.493-32000
93Billy Wade8622.4722.050.42414320.488-21965
94Bernie Kosar11520.8420.430.42565810.491-21995
95Eric Hipple5820.0519.640.41283000.483-21989
96Matt Schaub9223.6523.240.41474500.51122013
97Jeff Garcia12222.5522.160.39606200.492-22008
98Trent Dilfer11917.8217.520.3635600.52972007
99Bill Kenney7721.7521.490.26344300.442-91988
99Scott Hunter4316.8116.650.16211930.52321977
100Steve Beuerlein10420.2520.10.15485600.462-82003
101Vince Ferragamo5921.5821.460.12302900.50811985
102Charley Johnson12422.2322.190.04595780.50821975
103Jim Plunkett15420.4120.410807400.51961986
103Cody Carlson2019.719.7011900.5521994
104Mark Malone5520.1120.13-0.02243100.436-71988
105Charlie Batch5520.6920.71-0.02253000.455-52012
106Matt Hasselbeck16322.1722.2-0.02857800.52172012
106Steve Ramsey3119.3919.52-0.13141700.452-31976
107Greg Landry9918.9119.18-0.27445230.46-81984
108Bubby Brister7719.3519.66-0.31383900.494-11998
109Bill Munson6618.6819.05-0.36273450.447-71975
110Boomer Esiason17821.8722.25-0.38839500.466-121997
111Babe Parilli10422.1922.59-0.39504770.51431967
111Matt Robinson2022.422.8-0.4101000.501980
112Gus Frerotte9521.3721.8-0.43454910.479-42008
113Steve Bartkowski13120.3820.82-0.44607100.458-111986
114Jim Hart18221.0421.49-0.45879050.492-31983
115Scott Mitchell7322.4122.89-0.48324100.438-92000
115Anthony Wright2017.6518.15-0.581200.4-42005
116Mike Livingston7519.4520.01-0.56314310.42-121979
116Frankie Albert3219.0919.72-0.63141710.453-31952
117Tony Banks7819.1819.83-0.65354300.449-82003
117Tommy Maddox3821.2921.95-0.66162110.434-52005
117Ryan Tannehill4820.6921.35-0.67232500.479-22014
118Joe Namath13222.4223.1-0.67646440.501977
119Matthew Stafford7923.6324.33-0.7354400.443-92014
119Steve Fuller4417.4118.14-0.73202400.455-41986
120Tommy Kramer11420.5521.32-0.77565800.491-21989
121Carson Palmer14522.0122.83-0.82707500.483-52014
122Tony Eason5620.7921.61-0.82312500.55461989
123Marc Wilson6120.3921.25-0.85322900.52531990
124Don Majkowski5719.4420.33-0.89263010.465-41996
124Todd Blackledge3019.8720.77-0.9151500.501989
125John Brodie16421.6322.55-0.91768080.488-41973
126Doug Williams8817.7718.73-0.95424510.483-31989
127Jim Harbaugh14518.6819.68-1687700.469-92000
127Pete Beathard3718.0519.08-1.03181810.501972
128Sonny Jurgensen14921.5422.61-1.07697370.487-41974
129Mike Phipps7317.8219.04-1.22383320.53451980
130Brian Sipe11319.8921.15-1.26575600.50411983
131Ken O'Brien11220.1921.46-1.27506110.451-111993
131Quincy Carter3515.7117-1.29181700.51412004
131George Ratterman2025.2526.55-1.391010.475-11956
131A.J. Feeley1818.8920.22-1.3381000.444-22011
132Bert Jones9921.5622.91-1.35475200.475-51982
133Jay Cutler12122.7424.1-1.36625900.51232014
134Rodney Peete8919.4820.85-1.37464300.51732003
134Kellen Clemens2118.7620.19-1.4381300.381-52013
135Kerry Collins18719.6321.12-1.498410300.449-192011
135Scott Brunner3217.5619.06-1.5131900.406-61983
135Steve Walsh411718.54-1.54212000.51211996
136Joe Ferguson17518.7820.33-1.54809500.457-151989
137Byron Leftwich5117.3118.9-1.59242700.471-32012
138Richard Todd11220.121.69-1.59506110.451-111984
138Damon Huard2717.2218.81-1.59151200.55632008
138Danny Kanell2518.1219.72-1.6101410.42-42003
138Matt Leinart1821.1722.78-1.6181000.444-22011
138Kyle Boller4719.0220.64-1.62202700.426-72011
138Kent Graham3816.9218.61-1.68172100.447-42000
138Kevin Kolb2120.922.71-1.8191200.429-32012
139Jim Everett15820.1922.01-1.82669200.418-261997
139George Shaw2920.5922.41-1.83111620.414-51962
140Chris Chandler15519.7221.68-1.97698600.445-172004
141Bob Avellini511718.98-1.98232800.451-51984
142Tobin Rote11922.8724.87-1.99516440.445-131964
142Vince Evans3918.120.18-2.08142500.359-111995
143Jason Campbell7919.6621.77-2.11324700.405-152013
144Vinny Testaverde21919.521.62-2.119212610.422-342007
145Bob Berry5217.0419.17-2.13202930.413-91974
145Sammy Baugh2219.0521.23-2.18111100.501952
146Jake Plummer14219.7421.94-2.2717100.502006
146Gary Hogeboom3719.3821.59-2.22181900.486-11989
147Tom Flores6722.2824.63-2.34313240.493-11968
147Jack Concannon4516.8219.18-2.36202410.456-41974
147Todd Collins2217.5519.91-2.36111100.502010
148Lynn Dickey11319.722.1-2.4466430.42-181985
148John Friesz3818.7621.18-2.42132500.342-121998
149Neil Lomax10220.6923.12-2.43475320.471-61988
149Johnny Green1922.2124.68-2.4781100.421-31962
150Matt Cassel7220.8223.33-2.51333900.458-62014
150Heath Shuler2217.7320.27-2.5581400.364-61997
151Cotton Davidson5420.3522.94-2.59203310.38-131966
151Adrian Burk4120.122.83-2.73152330.402-81956
151Patrick Ramsey2418.4621.21-2.75101400.417-42005
151Trent Edwards3318.4221.21-2.79141900.424-52010
152Dan Pastorini12218.2721.07-2.8596300.484-41981
153Erik Kramer7019.6922.61-2.93323800.457-61999
153Dave Wilson3116.8419.77-2.94121900.387-71986
154Steve DeBerg14419.622.53-2.94548910.378-351998
154Kelly Holcomb2520.823.76-2.9681700.32-92007
154David Whitehurst3714.8917.95-3.05162010.446-41981
154Cliff Stoudt2120.123.29-3.1991200.429-31988
154Seneca Wallace2217.4120.77-3.3661600.273-102013
154Joe Reed191518.37-3.3791000.474-11979
154Rob Johnson3019.2722.7-3.43121800.4-62002
154Jim Finks4519.5823.04-3.47182700.4-91955
155Jon Kitna12520.8924.46-3.57507500.4-252010
155Mike Boryla1915.5319.11-3.5881100.421-31978
155Christian Ponder3623.527.08-3.58142110.403-72014
156Dave Brown6016.7220.3-3.58263400.433-82000
156Frank Reich2220.1423.73-3.5971500.318-81998
156Dick Wood3420.3223.97-3.65131920.412-61966
156Pete Liske2917.3421-3.66131510.466-21972
157Daunte Culpepper10421.4825.15-3.67436100.413-182009
157Paul McDonald2216.2319.91-3.6881400.364-61984
158Aaron Brooks9220.5324.23-3.7395300.424-142006
158Robert Griffin362326.83-3.83142200.389-82014
158Butch Songin2023.3527.2-3.8581110.425-31962
158Steve Pelluer3017.6321.53-3.992010.317-111989
159Chris Miller9419.4123.34-3.93355900.372-241999
159Josh McCown4918.9822.98-4173200.347-152014
159Zeke Bratkowski4718.5322.6-4.06163010.351-141971
160Ryan Fitzpatrick892024.1-4.1335510.376-222014
161Jim Zorn1062024.12-4.12446200.415-181987
161Charlie Trippi1614.3118.44-4.1351100.313-61952
161Mike Taliaferro3118.122.23-4.13112000.355-91970
161Al Woodall1913.7917.95-4.1651400.263-91973
161Shane Matthews2216.6820.86-4.18111100.502002
161Jake Locker2320.9125.13-4.2291400.391-52014
161Derek Anderson4518.5122.73-4.22202500.444-52014
162Rick Mirer6817.7421.99-4.25244400.353-202003
162Marty Domres3216.4420.72-4.28122000.375-81977
163Josh Freeman6019.7824.08-4.3243600.4-122013
164Norm Snead15819.5923.95-4.35529970.351-471976
165Marc Bulger9821.0825.59-4.51425600.429-142009
166Jack Trudeau5015.4420-4.56193100.38-121994
167Joey Harrington7617.2421.95-4.71265000.342-242007
167Craig Erickson3517.622.34-4.74142100.4-71996
167Billy Joe Tolliver4718.1922.94-4.74153200.319-171999
168Bobby Douglass5317.1921.96-4.77163610.311-201977
169Jeff Blake1002024.82-4.82396100.39-222003
169Don Trull1823.8328.72-4.8941220.278-81969
169Steve Spurrier3816.9221.84-4.92132410.355-111976
169Karl Sweetan1916.8421.79-4.9561030.395-41968
169Sam Bradford4917.5322.55-5.02183010.378-122013
169Ty Detmer2617.7722.81-5.04111500.423-42001
170Tim Couch5916.5921.69-5.1223700.373-152003
170Joe Pisarcik3014.820.17-5.3792100.3-121984
170Steve Dils2717.723.11-5.41101700.37-71988
170Hugh Millen2514.419.92-5.5271800.28-111994
170Chris Simms1714.7620.41-5.6571000.412-32009
170David Archer2317.6523.3-5.6591310.413-41987
170Brandon Weeden2118.2423.95-5.7151600.238-112014
171Lamar McHan7317.8223.73-5.9244720.342-231963
171Tim Tebow1619.8825.81-5.949700.56322011
171Jack Thompson2117.5723.52-5.9541700.19-131984
171Geno Smith2918.6224.59-5.97111800.379-72014
172Jeff George12717.5723.6-6.03478000.37-332001
173Eddie LeBaron8118.1724.31-6.14265230.34-261963
173Dick Shiner2918.7924.93-6.1472110.259-141973
174Mike Pagel5417.0423.24-6.2173610.324-191990
174Al Dorow4421.227.41-6.2192500.432-61962
174Billy Joe Hobert1717.0623.29-6.2441300.235-91999
174Terry Hanratty1815.7222.11-6.3961200.333-61976
174Jacky Lee2316.723.09-6.3971510.326-81969
174John Skelton1717.1223.65-6.538900.471-12012
174Colt McCoy2515.5222.28-6.7671800.28-112014
174Tim Rattay1818.525.28-6.7851300.278-82006
175Chad Henne5318.6225.45-6.83183500.34-172014
175Mike Glennon1819.9426.78-6.8351300.278-82014
175J.P. Losman3315.7922.7-6.91102300.303-132008
175King Hill3020.627.87-7.2772210.25-151968
175Ralph Guglielmi2616.6923.96-7.2771630.327-91963
176David Carr7916.2823.63-7.35235600.291-332007
177Frank Tripucka5020.0627.5-7.44173210.35-151963
177Charlie Frye2314.6122.22-7.6171600.304-92009
177Steve Tensi3419.4727.09-7.62102310.309-131970
177Chuck Long2114.922.67-7.7641700.19-131988
177Kelly Stouffer1612.0620.06-851100.313-61992
178Archie Manning13915.9124.21-8.293510130.263-661984
178Ryan Leaf211523.43-8.4341700.19-132001
178David Klingler2412.6321.42-8.7942000.167-161994
178Bruce Gradkowski2016.0525.05-961400.3-82010
178Jeff Komlo1614.1923.25-9.0621400.125-121981
178Randy Wright3215.0924.34-9.2572500.219-181988
178Blaine Gabbert2715.324.85-9.5652200.185-172013
178John Reaves1713.4123.65-10.2441300.235-91987
178JaMarcus Russell2514.4824.72-10.2471800.28-112009
178Chris Weinke2013.623.95-10.3521800.1-162007
178Dennis Shaw3715.4626.03-10.5782720.243-191972
178Kent Nix1816.527.17-10.6741400.222-101972
178Mickey Slaughter192131.74-10.7421520.158-131966
178Brady Quinn201525.85-10.8541600.2-122012
178Doug Pederson1710.5922.35-11.7631400.176-112000
178Timm Rosenbach2014.626.4-11.851500.25-101992
178Gary Huff289.5721.39-11.8272100.25-141977
178Derek Carr1615.8128.25-12.4431300.188-102014
178Randy Johnson4915.5528.45-12.9103810.214-281976
178Akili Smith1710.7624.76-1431400.176-112002

Again, I’m short on time, so I will leave the commentary to you guys.


Please see yesterday’s post for the fine print. The table below shows the average points per game allowed in games started by each quarterback, minimum 15 games (but the ranks only count for quarterbacks with 50 or more starts).

RkQuarterbackGPAWLTWin %WinOv.500Last Yr
1Otto Graham8314.42661610.801501955
1James Harris4415.2261800.59181978
2Roger Staubach13115.31963500.733611979
3Jim McMahon10315.59703300.68371994
4Terry Bradshaw17715.681215600.684651983
5Russell Wilson5615.73421400.75282014
5Bob Lee3215.84201200.62581977
6Pat Haden6016.05372210.625151981
6Dieter Brock1716.2912500.70671985
6Scott Hunter4316.65211930.52321977
7Bart Starr16716.681035860.635451971
7Don Heinrich3716.7221320.62291962
8Bob Griese16216.77986130.614371980
8Quincy Carter3517181700.51412004
9Earl Morrall10717.04673730.64301975
9Steve Bono4317.21281500.651131998
10Craig Morton15417.25866710.562191982
11Charlie Conerly9217.32583310.636251961
12Jay Fiedler6317.32382500.603132004
13Ron Jaworski15117.32777310.51341989
14Joe Montana18717.351335400.711791994
14Shaun King2717.52151200.55632004
15Trent Dilfer11917.52635600.52972007
16Joe Kapp5217.6262330.52931970
17Phil Simms16917.731016800.598331993
17Matt Moore2317.74111200.478-12011
17Gary Cuozzo4117.76212000.51211972
18Len Dawson16717.8996080.617391975
19Daryle Lamonica9717.89702160.753491973
20David Woodley5817.93372010.647171985
20David Whitehurst3717.95162010.446-41981
20Al Woodall1917.9551400.263-91973
21Troy Aikman18018.011057500.583302000
22Kordell Stewart8618.05503600.581142003
22Bobby Thomason4218.05192210.464-31957
22Steve Fuller4418.14202400.455-41986
22Anthony Wright2018.1581200.4-42005
22Tommy O'Connell2118.1911820.57131961
23Donovan McNabb17718.281076910.607382011
24Joe Flacco12718.34824500.646372014
24Virgil Carter3118.35161500.51611975
24Joe Reed1918.3791000.474-11979
25Joe Theismann13218.37834900.629341985
26Roman Gabriel15918.38866670.563201976
27Ben Roethlisberger17318.41165700.671592014
28Ken Stabler15818.421035410.655491983
28Charlie Trippi1618.4451100.313-61952
29Mark Rypien8518.48523300.612191995
30Doug Flutie6818.5383000.55982004
31Brad Johnson12518.5725300.576192008
32Milt Plum10418.52564260.567141967
33Johnny Unitas19418.531246640.649581973
33Steve Walsh4118.54212000.51211996
33Kent Graham3818.61172100.447-42000
34Mike Tomczak7818.67453300.577121999
35Doug Williams8818.73424510.483-31989
35Damon Huard2718.81151200.55632008
36Steve Young15718.841025500.65471999
37Tom Brady23618.861815500.7671262014
38Jay Schroeder10418.87644000.615241994
39Elvis Grbac7318.88413200.56292001
40Byron Leftwich5118.9242700.471-32012
41Bob Avellini5118.98232800.451-51984
41Don Strock231916700.69691988
41Jim Miller2819151300.53622002
42Mike Phipps7319.04383320.53451980
43Bill Munson6619.05273450.447-71975
43Scott Brunner3219.06131900.406-61983
43Pete Beathard3719.08181810.501972
43Jeff Kemp3019.1161310.5531991
43Mike Boryla1919.1181100.421-31978
44Neil O'Donnell10719.12584900.54292003
45Bob Berry5219.17202930.413-91974
46Jim Kelly17719.181106700.621431996
46Jack Concannon4519.18202410.456-41974
47Greg Landry9919.18445230.46-81984
47Jim Ninowski3119.19151510.501968
48Jack Kemp11119.21674130.617261969
48Rudy Bukich3819.21211430.59271966
49Ken Anderson17819.29938500.52281985
50Jeff Hostetler8819.31553300.625221997
51John Elway25219.431628910.645731998
52Billy Kilmer12119.48635710.52561978
52Steve Ramsey3119.52141700.452-31976
53Chad Pennington8719.53464100.52952010
54Drew Bledsoe19919.541019800.50832006
55Randall Cunningham14419.56855810.594272001
56Rich Gannon13819.57795900.572202004
56Matt Cavanaugh1919.6381100.421-31986
57Eric Hipple5819.64283000.483-21989
58Bubby Brister7719.66383900.494-11998
59Jim Harbaugh14519.68687700.469-92000
60Bobby Hebert10319.68564700.54491996
60Tarvaris Jackson3519.69171800.486-12011
61Steve McNair16319.69966700.589292007
61Johnny Lujack2019.713700.6561951
61Cody Carlson2019.711900.5521994
61Frankie Albert3219.72141710.453-31952
61Danny Kanell2519.72101410.42-42003
62Danny White10219.73673500.657321987
63Dave Krieg18419.731018300.549181996
64Gary Danielson6119.75283210.467-41988
65Brett Favre32219.7519912300.618762010
65Dave Wilson3119.77121900.387-71986
66Jake Delhomme10419.78614300.587182010
67Tony Banks7819.83354300.449-82003
68Brian Griese8319.86453800.54272008
69Steve Grogan13819.86756300.543121990
69Todd Collins2219.91111100.502010
69Paul McDonald2219.9181400.364-61984
69Hugh Millen2519.9271800.28-111994
70Alex Smith10819.94584910.54292014
71Jack Trudeau5020193100.38-121994
71Colin Kaepernick4520291600.644132014
72Mike Livingston7520.01314310.42-121979
73Kyle Orton8220.06424000.51222014
73Kelly Stouffer1620.0651100.313-61992
74Mark Brunell16120.08837800.51652009
75Steve Beuerlein10420.1485600.462-82003
76Mark Malone5520.13243100.436-71988
76Joe Pisarcik3020.1792100.3-121984
77Frank Ryan9020.18582930.661291968
77Vince Evans3920.18142500.359-111995
77Kellen Clemens2120.1981300.381-52013
77A.J. Feeley1820.2281000.444-22011
78Bobby Layne13920.24835240.612311962
78Heath Shuler2220.2781400.364-61997
79Dave Brown6020.3263400.433-82000
80Joe Ferguson17520.33809500.457-151989
81Rex Grossman5120.33272400.52932011
82Don Majkowski5720.33263010.465-41996
83Stan Humphries8720.4533400.609191997
84Jim Plunkett15420.41807400.51961986
84Chris Simms1720.4171000.412-32009
85Bernie Kosar11520.43565810.491-21995
86Vince Young5120.49312000.608112011
86Shaun Hill3420.5161800.471-22014
87Andy Dalton6820.51402710.596132014
88John Hadl16920.53827890.51241977
88Kyle Boller4720.64202700.426-72011
89Charlie Batch5520.71253000.455-52012
89Marty Domres3220.72122000.375-81977
90Dan Marino25820.7515510300.601521999
91Philip Rivers15320.76926100.601312014
91Todd Blackledge3020.77151500.501989
91Seneca Wallace2220.7761600.273-102013
92Steve Bartkowski13120.82607100.458-111986
92Brian Hoyer1720.8210700.58832014
93Rodney Peete8920.85464300.51732003
93Shane Matthews2220.86111100.502002
94Mark Sanchez7620.92413500.53962014
95Fran Tarkenton25020.9413011460.532161978
95Pat Ryan2120.9512900.57131989
96Aaron Rodgers11420.98763800.667382014
96Pete Liske2921131510.466-21972
97Wade Wilson7421.01383600.51421998
98Don Meredith8921.04493640.573131968
99Dan Pastorini12221.07596300.484-41981
100David Garrard7821.09403800.51322010
101Kerry Collins18721.128410300.449-192011
102Brian Sipe11321.15575600.50411983
102John Friesz3821.18132500.342-121998
103Ed Brown9921.19553950.581161964
103Patrick Ramsey2421.21101400.417-42005
103Trent Edwards3321.21141900.424-52010
103Sammy Baugh2221.23111100.501952
104Marc Wilson6121.25322900.52531990
105Tommy Kramer11421.32565800.491-21989
105Ryan Tannehill4821.35232500.479-22014
105Gary Huff2821.3972100.25-141977
105David Klingler2421.4242000.167-161994
106Warren Moon21321.4510510800.493-32000
107Ken O'Brien11221.46506110.451-111993
108Vince Ferragamo5921.46302900.50811985
109Bill Kenney7721.49344300.442-91988
110Jim Hart18221.49879050.492-31983
110John Roach1921.5371110.395-41964
111Peyton Manning28021.531909000.6791002014
111Steve Pelluer3021.5392010.317-111989
111Gary Hogeboom3721.59181900.486-11989
112Tony Eason5621.61312500.55461989
113Vinny Testaverde21921.629212610.422-342007
114Chris Chandler15521.68698600.445-172004
115Richard Todd11221.69506110.451-111984
116Tim Couch5921.69223700.373-152003
117Michael Vick11521.76615310.53582014
118Jason Campbell7921.77324700.405-152013
118Karl Sweetan1921.7961030.395-41968
119Gus Frerotte9521.8454910.479-42008
119Bob Waterfield2521.84151000.651952
119Steve Spurrier3821.84132410.355-111976
120Jake Plummer14221.94717100.502006
121Joey Harrington7621.95265000.342-242007
121Tommy Maddox3821.95162110.434-52005
122Bobby Douglass5321.96163610.311-201977
123Rick Mirer6821.99244400.353-202003
124Jim Everett15822.01669200.418-261997
125Billy Wade8622.05414320.488-21965
126Lynn Dickey11322.1466430.42-181985
127Tony Romo12922.1775200.597252014
127Terry Hanratty1822.1161200.333-61976
128Matt Ryan11522.13674800.583192014
129Jeff Garcia12222.16606200.492-22008
130Charley Johnson12422.19595780.50821975
131Matt Hasselbeck16322.2857800.52172012
132Y.A. Tittle13922.21785650.579221964
132Charlie Frye2322.2271600.304-92009
132Mike Taliaferro3122.23112000.355-91970
133Cam Newton6522.25313310.485-22014
134Boomer Esiason17822.25839500.466-121997
135Bill Nelsen7922.27423430.55181972
135Colt McCoy2522.2871800.28-112014
136Norm Van Brocklin10522.29633840.619251960
136Craig Erickson3522.34142100.4-71996
136Doug Pederson1722.3531400.176-112000
136George Shaw2922.41111620.414-51962
137Kurt Warner12822.46755300.586222009
138Eli Manning17822.48997900.556202014
139Steve DeBerg14422.53548910.378-351998
140John Brodie16422.55768080.488-41973
140Sam Bradford4922.55183010.378-122013
141Babe Parilli10422.59504770.51431967
141Zeke Bratkowski4722.6163010.351-141971
142Sonny Jurgensen14922.61697370.487-41974
143Erik Kramer7022.61323800.457-61999
143Chuck Long2122.6741700.19-131988
143J.P. Losman3322.7102300.303-132008
143Rob Johnson3022.7121800.4-62002
143Kevin Kolb2122.7191200.429-32012
143Derek Anderson4522.73202500.444-52014
144Drew Brees21222.761238900.58342014
144Matt Leinart1822.7881000.444-22011
144Matt Robinson2022.8101000.501980
144Ty Detmer2622.81111500.423-42001
144Adrian Burk4122.83152330.402-81956
145Carson Palmer14522.83707500.483-52014
146Scott Mitchell7322.89324100.438-92000
147Bert Jones9922.91475200.475-51982
147Billy Joe Tolliver4722.94153200.319-171999
148Cotton Davidson5422.94203310.38-131966
148Josh McCown4922.98173200.347-152014
149Dan Fouts17823.03898810.50311987
149Jim Finks4523.04182700.4-91955
149Jacky Lee2323.0971510.326-81969
150Joe Namath13223.1646440.501977
151George Blanda10723.1555110.51941968
151Steve Dils2723.11101700.37-71988
152Neil Lomax10223.12475320.471-61988
153Matt Schaub9223.24474500.51122013
154Mike Pagel5423.24173610.324-191990
154Jeff Komlo1623.2521400.125-121981
154Cliff Stoudt2123.2991200.429-31988
154Billy Joe Hobert1723.2941300.235-91999
154David Archer2323.391310.413-41987
155Matt Cassel7223.33333900.458-62014
156Chris Miller9423.34355900.372-241999
156Ryan Leaf2123.4341700.19-132001
156Jack Thompson2123.5241700.19-131984
157Andrew Luck5423.54361800.667182014
158Trent Green11523.58565900.487-32008
159Jeff George12723.6478000.37-332001
160David Carr7923.63235600.291-332007
160John Skelton1723.658900.471-12012
160John Reaves1723.6541300.235-91987
160Nick Foles2523.68151000.652014
161Lamar McHan7323.73244720.342-231963
161Frank Reich2223.7371500.318-81998
161Kelly Holcomb2523.7681700.32-92007
162Norm Snead15823.95529970.351-471976
162Chris Weinke2023.9521800.1-162007
162Brandon Weeden2123.9551600.238-112014
162Ralph Guglielmi2623.9671630.327-91963
162Dick Wood3423.97131920.412-61966
163Josh Freeman6024.08243600.4-122013
164Jay Cutler12124.1625900.51232014
165Ryan Fitzpatrick8924.1335510.376-222014
166Jim Zorn10624.12446200.415-181987
167Archie Manning13924.213510130.263-661984
168Aaron Brooks9224.23395300.424-142006
169Eddie LeBaron8124.31265230.34-261963
170Matthew Stafford7924.33354400.443-92014
170Randy Wright3224.3472500.219-181988
171Jon Kitna12524.46507500.4-252010
171Geno Smith2924.59111800.379-72014
172Tom Flores6724.63313240.493-11968
172Johnny Green1924.6881100.421-31962
172JaMarcus Russell2524.7271800.28-112009
172Akili Smith1724.7631400.176-112002
173Jeff Blake10024.82396100.39-222003
173Blaine Gabbert2724.8552200.185-172013
174Tobin Rote11924.87516440.445-131964
174Dick Shiner2924.9372110.259-141973
174Bruce Gradkowski2025.0561400.3-82010
174Jake Locker2325.1391400.391-52014
175Daunte Culpepper10425.15436100.413-182009
175Tim Rattay1825.2851300.278-82006
176Chad Henne5325.45183500.34-172014
177Marc Bulger9825.59425600.429-142009
177Tim Tebow1625.819700.56322011
177Brady Quinn2025.8541600.2-122012
177Dennis Shaw3726.0382720.243-191972
177Timm Rosenbach2026.451500.25-101992
177George Ratterman2026.5591010.475-11956
177Mike Glennon1826.7851300.278-82014
177Robert Griffin3626.83142200.389-82014
177Christian Ponder3627.08142110.403-72014
177Steve Tensi3427.09102310.309-131970
177Kent Nix1827.1741400.222-101972
177Butch Songin2027.281110.425-31962
177Al Dorow4427.41192500.432-61962
178Frank Tripucka5027.5173210.35-151963
178King Hill3027.8772210.25-151968
178Derek Carr1628.2531300.188-102014
178Randy Johnson4928.45103810.214-281976
178Don Trull1828.7241220.278-81969
178Mickey Slaughter1931.7421520.158-131966

Again, I will leave the commentary to you guys.

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