For some reason, I didn’t get the notice that you responded to my comment…went to my spam folder!

I generally agree with what you’re saying, but I’ll have to watch that Packers-Cowboys game again and listen to Joe Buck…don’t remember him going off, but then again, it’s these guys’ jobs to kind of heap all kinds of praise on players in the moment, etc…

Honestly, I’m a little light on the regular season stuff…it’s equally important (more or less depending on your opinion) to the playoffs, but I haven’t really looked at it too much. There’s so much great stuff that Bryan Frye and Chase have done (and others), that for regular season, I just try to find their stuff. That being said, I’m OK with his “negative” plays being higher if they actually aren’t negative plays…meaning, if throwing the ball away is better than taking a sack – from a down & distance, EP or WP perspective – then I’m OK with that. Of course, if he’s prematurely throwing the ball away, etc., then we can look at that. For me, that’s a little too much into the weeds…I’m very shy about evaluating plays, whether a QB should have thrown or not, what’s a real interception, a wide receiver drop, etc. (unless it’s obvious of course). I leave that to Pro Football Focus or other smart guys, etc.

Regarding Rodgers’ postseason numbers going down with more playoff games, yes, that’s what I’m really interested in right now. As far as leverage/WP goes, Rodgers is at a pretty high +0.25 per game, and he hasn’t had a “negative” game yet (though he’s had a few games very close to zero). Yes, he’s had some huge bumps due to a few incredible (fluky if you like) plays, but that’s exactly what this metric is for…measuring the plays that have the most impact (as I said, it’s not the “one ring”). It makes sense to me that those numbers will go down if he gets in to more playoff games…along the same lines, this is why Eli Manning’s playoff record looks so good and I’m assuming that his playoff WPA (when I get around to doing it) might be off the chart: he’s been in 12 playoff games, he’s been an underdog by an average of 3.7 points in each, and he’s won 8, two against probably the greatest dynasty in history. Brady’s WPA in the playoffs was a stellar +0.20 before he lost his first playoff game in ’05, so yeah, it would make sense if Rodgers numbers go down, but we’ll see.

FYI, I’ve got Brady at +0.16 WPA per game, and Peyton at +0.09. My playoff study for Manning mirrors what some people say regarding Manning’s interesting career arc: with the Colts, he’s not getting a lot of support (this means a lot more than “the defense isn’t good”, it has to do with crucial moments in games where things don’t go “his” way with FG’s, etc.) and he’s playing really well, with the Broncos, he’s getting better support and not playing well (his playoff game in 2014 is disastrous, the 2015 Super Bowl really isn’t much better). He’s at +0.16 with the Colts and -0.07 with the Broncos.

Starting in 2011, Brady has been remarkable, he’s at +0.22 WPA per game…that’s 16 games, which, interestingly, is the total number of playoff games for Rodgers.

OK, enough of that…yeah, a group chat session would be cool, not sure how we could set it up. When I’m done with Brees’ numbers, I’ll do a post…a follow-up to James (Four Touchdowns) post from a few months ago.

That sounds like some interesting data you have. I think a lot of people would like to see how you rate those guys one to another. If I seem a little testy, it’s because the Rodgers hype has really taken off since his return to form at the end of last season. I didn’t enjoy watching the Cowboys game, and hearing Joe Buck go on and on about the guy. Look, Rodgers is great. But so are all the other guys that are considered the best of their eras.

I’ve done some work on the postseason numbers for the guys you mentioned, nothing as sophisticated as what you have in the works, but looking at expected points, I generally agree with your assessment. But I do wonder if Rodgers’ postseason numbers will go down if he plays more playoff games, just because it’s hard to sustain that level over the long haul.

In the regular season, it’s not clear to me that Rodgers has outperformed Brady and Manning, despite what the superficial numbers say. Brady has better numbers over the last 10 years, and by making 2007 the cutoff, you’re missing the stretch from 03-06 when Peyton was incredible. Rodgers takes a huge number of sacks, and has a bunch of other plays, based on what I’ve seen, where he throws the ball away before getting sacked. So I would think his rate of “negative” plays is much higher than Manning and Brady, etc. I also didn’t fail to notice how far his numbers went down in 2015, when he didn’t have great receivers around him. Even in 2012, when Jennings and Nelson got hurt, his YAC% went up, and I believe that’s a function of the team around him. If there’s one guy Rodgers reminds me of, it’s Steve Young. And I’d probably say that Young was more talented than Joe Montana, but does that mean I have to say Young is therefore the better quarterback? Because I don’t believe that.

I’ll be interested to see how Brady does with Cooks, because I think a lot of the knocks on Brady have stemmed from the fact that he hasn’t had the quality of deep threats other people have, except only briefly. Give Brady or Montana the receivers that Rodgers has had in his best seasons, and I think they would reproduce his numbers.

Has this site ever done something like a live group chat session? If we can set up a time for it, this topic might be a good one.