Pretty much.

But the other thing to keep in mind is that you should still be increasing your projection.

If Manning was at 2.3 TDs/G before season, and at 3.3 TDs/G right now, our going forward projection should be somewhere between 2.3 and 3.3. Once we have new evidence, we need to incorporate that into our projection. The issue is figuring out how much weight should go on the prior knowledge and how much on the new knowledge. This is at the heart of Bayes Theorem.

It’s the former – you’d expect Peyton to throw 2.3 TDs/game for the rest of the year. The past is the past, and his future TD rate is (mostly) independent of what has already happened, and it’s not going to decrease so his final actual rate matches his true talent rate; that’s called the Gambler’s fallacy.

Yeah, after I posted that I was thinking more about it. I suppose it would be like a coin toss. If I got “heads” my first 5 tosses, and was doing 10 total tosses, I shouldn’t expect 5 “tails” going forward. I should expect 2 or 3 tails (50%).