Thanks, James. I had forgotten about Brian’s post, and that’s a good one.

I think if we could incorporate the value of a first down into YPA, that would ease many of my fears about YPA being biased in favor of deep passers. For example, a QB who is 7 for 10 for 80 yards and 6 first downs is someone I would rate ahead of a QB who is 5 for 10 for 80 yards and 3 first downs.

I still disagree that YPA is biased towards deep passers. As Brian Burke said in his article on short vs deep passes: many things have already gone right if a QB throws a pass and it’s very likely many shorter passes are after a QB tried to go deep but couldn’t (either because the deep receiver was covered or pressure forced a checkdown before the deep pass developed). But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t reward QBs that are better at creating and taking advantage of those deep pass opportunities! How often are Peyton and Brees lauded for reading and moving safeties to open up deep strikes, while other prospects fail to pan out because they won’t pull the trigger (cough Campbell cough Bradford cough)?

Here’s Brian’s take from a few years ago: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/09/deep-vs-short-passes.html

Unfortunately a conclusion to this debate will probably have to wait until the offseason, if we can even reach one. Maybe someone can really dive into NFLGSIS and EPA data, or create a markov chain EPA model and we can test various completion percentages and YPA?