What is a so-called “normal” MOV? I don´t know the exact percentage of close games this year, but read somewhere it is at a record number this season. Thus the MOV shall be too low so far (I think it´s a good idea for an article here?).

Hopefully more “blow-outs” will come in this playoffs to at least even out the numbers to some extend, and more important, the NFL fan finally gets an deserved non-fluke-non-random-non-cheating champion again. The alternative would be NBA like outcomes which are kept artificially* close until the end by absurd rules and the refs (see FBI witness Tim Donaghy).

* If we are honest: Isn´t it already like this? Prevent defenses that only prevent leading teams from winning (and thus artifically induce “drama” to normally decided games), as one player once famously said. Or take the the icing the kicker time-out-rule which artificially lead to absurd double kick attempts in the last seconds of a game, and more…

@ Chase (all?): I thought the high amount of “drama” games the last couple of seasons were normal… until I learned otherwise. As a new AFL fan (for 2+ years now) I found out that games there are more non-random (even though they also have a salary cap and free agency to get “parity”), and much more “blow-outs” occur. For example, there (in the AFL) circa 10% of games end with 4th quarter comebacks, while in the NFL the number is almost as double high, at close to 20%. Is there a statistical method to find out how many games SHOULD be close in a given sport/league? My first wild guess (outside of artificially enhanced drama games 😉 is that the less scoring chances, the closer the games. In pro soccer you have circa 2-3 scores per game, in the NFL 8-9, in the AFL 48-49. I think it would be a great idea for an off season study.

… “For some reason, I have a feeling GB is going to beat DAL today and break the road team’s drought” Good! Everything goes by plan. The Falcons have HFA. It´s a perfect chance for a high scoring offense to prevail again, after a much too long drought. My confidence is high*. My NFL comeback is in the making.
I might be a little concerned if the Pats go to the SB, otoh it should not be too easy for the Falcons. So whoever they get, it´s ok.

Greetings from Germany

For some reason, I have a feeling GB is going to beat DAL today and break the road team’s drought.