Regarding the Broncos, it is mostly just a function of using the league average points as the baseline and the way Pythagorean expectation favors defensive teams.

Using regular Pythagorean wins (with the 2.67 exponent), the Broncos are good for 12.1 wins. This is because they scored 37.9 and allowed 24.9 ppg. But when I used DVOA to adjust the 23.4 league average ppg, Denver is only credited with 31.1 and 23.5 pf and pa.

Denver had a 207 point differential, compared to Seattle’s 186; however, they scored 1.52 points for every point allowed, versus 1.81 for Seattle. Because the Pythagorean formula uses the ratio rather than the gross differential, defense always wins. This is an issue that Pythagenpat generally accounts for, and it is why I think PPat is better for comparing expected wins across different scoring environments.

I have a ridiculous spreadsheet at home that has just about every stat I ever use in raw, above average, above replacement, and z-score (as well as PFR-style + score) format; I might have to bust it out for future study in the DVOA-Pyth area.

Also, I didn’t ask Chase how he did it, but I counted ties as half wins (so the Packers and Vikings had 8.5 and 5.5 wins this year, respectively).