Alabama (and a caveat here – I have a future ticket on them here in the UK after taking a gamble with FSU last year)

8 wins – 0.04%
9 wins – 0.94%
10 wins – 9.51%
11 wins – 38.87%
12 wins – 50.64% (the numbers appear to be reflective of the fact that they still have games against Auburn and LSU who are both top 20 in the SRS – I also feel that Alabama’s SRS number is fairly genuinely consistent around the mid-60’s as the competition in the SEC starts to drop away)

Baylor

9 wins – 0.01%
10 wins – 0.59%
11 wins – 12.27%
12 wins – 87.13% (high percentage reflective of the margin of their victories uncapped resulting in a +90’s SRS and the general state of the Big 12 which appears only slightly better than the Big 10)

Oregon

8 wins – 0.06%
9 wins – 1.23%
10 wins – 10.92%
11 wins – 37.91%
12 wins – 49.88% (reflective of a couple of tough games against Pac12 competition left, and the fact that they sometimes pull their starters in games so their uncapped MOV is not as high is it could be)

Florida State – massive upgrade at QB with one of the best D’s in the nation (even with the losses in the draft), against a more competitive ACC which wasn’t the best last year meaning their SOS is a bit higher to match their higher MOV (in comparison to last year and the fact they are now winning games comfortably).

9 wins – 0.01%
10 wins – 0.22%
11 wins – 9.37%
12 wins – 90.4% (considering they still have games against two Top 30 SRS squads – I think this number is really reflective of the level of their victories so far and the margins).