≡ Menu

Finding Comparables For Mike Glennon

Not opposed to occasional acts of piracy

Not opposed to occasional acts of piracy.

It’s official in Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman is out and Mike Glennon is in at starting quarterback. But what are the odds that Glennon actually plays well this year? I’m not very optimistic for a couple of reasons.

Vincent Jackson is a star, but he’s dealing with injuries to his ribs. On 30 passes aimed at Jackson this year, Freeman has picked up 265 yards, an average of 8.83 yards per attempt. On 23 targets to Mike Williams, Freeman has averaged 5.5 yards per pass. On his other 38 targets, Freeman’s averaged just 4.7 yards per pass. Right now, there simply aren’t enough weapons in Tampa Bay, as the Bucs desperately could use a receiving tight end and a slot receiver.

But here’s another reason not to expect much from Glennon. Since 1978, there are 30 rookie quarterbacks who are “similar” to Glennon in that they met the following three criteria:

  • Were not first round picks
  • Did not start in week 1 (i.e., they didn’t pull a Russell Wilson and win the job with a great training camp — they generally became the starter because the man in front of them was ineffective); and
  • Started at least four games as a rookie.


As it turns out, only two of the 30 quarterbacks finished above the league average in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. In other words, expectations should be very tempered for Glennon. The average passer was 1.6 Adjusted Net Yards below league average, and the median quarterback was 1.4 ANY below average. Here’s how to read the line of the most successful quarterback of the thirty, Don Majkowski.

In 1987, Majkowski was a 10th round pick, and the 255th overall selection by the Packers. He started 5 games, completed 55 of 127 passes for 875 and 5 touchdowns, and three three interceptions. He also took 10 sacks for 77 yards. The Majik man averaged 5.57 ANY/A while the league average was 5.04 that season, so he has an Relative ANY/A of +0.53.

QuarterbackYearRdOvrTeamGSCmpAttPydTDINTSkSkydANY/ALgANY/ARANY/A
Don Majkowski198710255GNB5551278755310775.575.040.53
Charlie Batch1998260DET121733032178116372225.615.310.3
Shaun King1999250TAM5891468757411784.825.18-0.36
T.J. Yates20115152HOU5821349493315745.375.9-0.53
Chris Chandler1988376IND131292331619812181284.435.02-0.59
Tony Banks1996242STL1319236825441515483064.485.14-0.66
Rodney Peete19896141DET8103195147959271644.555.24-0.69
Jake Plummer1997242ARI915729622031515522914.425.16-0.75
Nick Foles2012388PHI6161265169965201315.135.93-0.8
Trent Edwards2007392BUF9151269163078121054.645.52-0.87
Gus Frerotte19947197WAS446100600553184.445.38-0.94
Colt McCoy2010385CLE8135222157669231324.735.73-1
Boomer Esiason1984238CIN451102530335523.775-1.24
David Woodley19808214MIA1117632718501417171273.64.87-1.27
Billy Joe Tolliver1989251SDG5891851097589753.935.24-1.31
Tom Hodson1990359NWE68515696845201473.845.29-1.45
Charlie Frye2005367CLE598164100245221353.885.34-1.46
Neil Lomax1981233STL71192361575410322863.435-1.57
John Skelton20105155ARI460126662229654.055.73-1.68
Bruce Gradkowski20066194TAM11177328166199251463.655.38-1.72
Jack Trudeau1986247IND112044172225818292133.054.96-1.9
Jeff Komlo19799231DET1418336822381123403612.64.61-2.01
John Beck2007240MIA4601075591310693.215.52-2.31
Jimmy Clausen2010248CAR10157299155839332232.985.73-2.75
Eric Zeier1995384CLE4821618644915912.555.41-2.87
Craig Krenzel20045148CHI55912771836231582.335.63-3.3
Luke McCown200441062TM4489860847121222.285.63-3.35
Ryan Lindley20126185ARI4891717520712911.895.93-4.04
Randall Cunningham1985237PHI4348154818201500.574.86-4.29
Keith Null20096196STL4731195663913821.055.65-4.6
{ 8 comments }