Comments on: Does Vegas undervalue bad teams and overvalue good teams? http://www.footballperspective.com/does-vegas-undervalue-bad-teams-and-overvalue-good-teams/ NFL History and Stats Fri, 14 Mar 2014 18:21:26 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Dave http://www.footballperspective.com/does-vegas-undervalue-bad-teams-and-overvalue-good-teams/#comment-87364 Fri, 14 Mar 2014 18:21:26 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=17994#comment-87364 In reply to Peter.

NFL seasons are already pretty short. Add in a qualifier like that and the sample becomes pretty small.

That said under the right conditions yes, bad teams do eventually cover at an increased rate. They are difficult to play though. Many of the wins come by 0.5 or a single point while the losses often look quite ugly.

]]> By: Peter http://www.footballperspective.com/does-vegas-undervalue-bad-teams-and-overvalue-good-teams/#comment-86946 Thu, 13 Mar 2014 18:52:14 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=17994#comment-86946 Sort of unrelated, but I’d love to see an analysis of ATS winning or losing streaks, i.e. do teams that win 3-4 games in a row ATS get an inflated value and become more likely to lose ATS in their next game? (and the same phenomenon for teams that lose 3-4 in a row). For example Jacksonville early this year, they just kept losing and becoming bigger and bigger underdogs, until the line got so big (Denver -28) that the “Jags suck” bubble popped, so to speak.

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