Here’s a quick Monday data dump… I ran the Simple Rating System (for offense and defense) on this year’s NFL results, but instead of weighing each game equally, I used Wayne Winston’s method of giving more weight to recent outcomes. Winston’s system is simply to give each game a weight of:
λ ^ (weeks ago)
In the NFL’s case, a λ of 0.95 works best for predicting future outcomes. The games from yesterday were (6 – week 6) = 0 weeks ago, so they get a weight of .95 ^ 0, or 1.00. Last week’s games were (6 – week 5) = 1 week ago, and get a weight of .95 ^ 1 = 0.95; the opening-week games were (6 – week 1) = 5 weeks ago, and get a weight of .95 ^ 5 = 0.77. See how it works?
Using this weighted form of SRS, here are the rankings going into tonight’s game (NOTE: For defenses, negative SRS numbers are better):
| Rk | Team | Gms | W | L | Off | Def | SRS | wpa_loc | wpa_vegas | wpa_1st | wpa_2nd | wpa_3rd | wpa_4th/ot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7.6 | -7.6 | 15.2 | -0.07 | 0.48 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.73 | 0.22 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 6 | 4 | 2 | 9.8 | -3.0 | 12.8 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.43 |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | -10.4 | 10.9 | 0.00 | 0.80 | -0.04 | 0.21 | 0.30 | -0.28 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 0.4 | 8.6 | -0.14 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.27 | -1.75 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4.9 | -2.5 | 7.5 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.06 | -0.64 | -0.53 |
| 6 | Seattle Seahawks | 6 | 4 | 2 | -2.0 | -8.7 | 6.6 | 0.00 | -0.20 | 0.68 | -0.74 | 0.19 | 1.07 |
| 7 | Houston Texans | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4.6 | -1.2 | 5.8 | 0.00 | 1.34 | -0.19 | 0.76 | 0.12 | -0.02 |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2.3 | -3.2 | 5.4 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.52 | 0.20 | 0.41 | 1.25 |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | -2.2 | 4.7 | 0.07 | -0.13 | -0.34 | -0.63 | 0.12 | 0.41 |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 2 | 3 | -0.5 | -4.5 | 4.0 | 0.07 | -0.42 | 0.35 | 0.20 | 0.36 | -1.06 |
| 11 | St Louis Rams | 6 | 3 | 3 | -2.8 | -6.7 | 3.9 | 0.00 | -0.77 | 0.02 | 0.27 | -0.10 | 0.58 |
| 12 | Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | -2.3 | 3.6 | -0.07 | 0.23 | -0.21 | -0.18 | -0.40 | 0.13 |
| 13 | Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1.4 | -2.1 | 3.5 | 0.14 | 0.65 | -0.31 | 0.76 | 0.06 | 0.70 |
| 14 | Arizona Cardinals | 6 | 4 | 2 | -3.8 | -5.7 | 1.9 | 0.14 | -0.36 | 0.08 | 0.10 | -0.19 | 1.22 |
| 15 | Washington Redskins | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.00 | -0.15 | 0.01 | 0.75 | 1.15 | -1.76 |
| 16 | Minnesota Vikings | 6 | 4 | 2 | -2.3 | -3.1 | 0.8 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.71 | -0.36 | -0.01 | 0.67 |
| 17 | Miami Dolphins | 6 | 3 | 3 | -2.8 | -2.5 | -0.3 | 0.00 | -0.59 | -0.01 | 0.74 | 1.29 | -1.43 |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5.2 | 7.2 | -2.0 | -0.07 | 0.20 | -0.31 | -0.82 | -0.33 | 0.83 |
| 19 | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2.5 | -0.4 | -2.2 | 0.07 | -0.12 | -0.84 | -0.05 | 0.24 | -0.80 |
| 20 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 3 | 3 | -6.5 | -3.8 | -2.7 | 0.00 | 0.52 | -0.68 | -0.31 | 0.70 | -0.24 |
| 21 | New York Jets | 6 | 3 | 3 | -2.3 | 0.5 | -2.8 | 0.14 | -0.40 | 0.04 | -0.10 | -0.41 | 0.73 |
| 22 | San Diego Chargers | 5 | 3 | 2 | -3.3 | -0.5 | -2.8 | -0.07 | 0.27 | 0.45 | 0.02 | 0.36 | -0.53 |
| 23 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0.3 | 4.9 | -4.6 | -0.14 | 0.17 | 0.61 | 0.43 | -1.21 | 0.14 |
| 24 | New Orleans Saints | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3.2 | 7.8 | -4.6 | 0.07 | 0.39 | 0.05 | -0.95 | -0.08 | -0.99 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 2 | 3 | -2.0 | 2.8 | -4.8 | -0.07 | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.18 | -1.44 |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | 6 | 1 | 5 | -2.1 | 3.0 | -5.0 | 0.00 | -1.15 | -0.21 | -0.74 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0.9 | 9.1 | -8.3 | -0.14 | -0.31 | 0.32 | 0.02 | -0.14 | 0.25 |
| 28 | Indianapolis Colts | 5 | 2 | 3 | -1.8 | 6.8 | -8.6 | 0.07 | -0.62 | 0.25 | -0.35 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| 29 | Oakland Raiders | 5 | 1 | 4 | -4.2 | 6.6 | -10.8 | -0.07 | -0.39 | -0.24 | 0.30 | -1.55 | 0.45 |
| 30 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 1 | 5 | -7.1 | 6.5 | -13.6 | 0.00 | -0.76 | -1.11 | 0.05 | -1.00 | 0.82 |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | 6 | 2 | 4 | -4.9 | 8.9 | -13.8 | 0.00 | -1.15 | -0.61 | 0.39 | -0.35 | 0.72 |
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | 1 | 4 | -10.7 | 3.3 | -14.0 | 0.07 | -0.60 | -0.38 | -0.44 | -0.21 | 0.06 |
I also included a breakdown of each team’s quarter-by-quarter Win Probability Added (WPA), so you can see where each team’s wins above/below average thus far have come from.