Comments on: Checkdowns: The Most Surprising NFL Results of the Season (Through 10 Weeks) http://www.footballperspective.com/checkdowns-the-most-surprising-nfl-results-of-the-season-through-10-weeks/ NFL History and Stats Tue, 17 Dec 2013 08:10:30 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0.2 By: android http://www.footballperspective.com/checkdowns-the-most-surprising-nfl-results-of-the-season-through-10-weeks/#comment-64759 Tue, 17 Dec 2013 08:10:30 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=4283#comment-64759 Appreciation for other sorts of fantastic write-up. The area altogether different may any person get that kind of data such a perfect technique of composing? I’ve a powerpoint presentation next week, and I’m in the search for similarly info.

]]> By: George http://www.footballperspective.com/checkdowns-the-most-surprising-nfl-results-of-the-season-through-10-weeks/#comment-3676 Fri, 16 Nov 2012 20:18:54 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=4283#comment-3676 In reply to Richie.

Miami was an interesting one. After reading that post from Neil the other week, I went and bought the Carl Meyer book and have managed to get an Excel worksheet set-up to run the Kenneth Massey 1997 thesis method (it’s a bit hard work but different). Uncapped and unweighted Massey, and uncapped and unweighted Least Squares would have both had Miami with about a 60% chance to cover. It was only when you added a weighting to your ratings that it became clear they would have only had about a 30% chance of covering (with last weeks game adding a heavy skew). Personally I think we need to find out just what the team is bringing before we buy it.

Incidentally things my worksheets liked this (average of weighted and unweighted Least Squares and unweighted Massey) Houston -16 (79% chance), Cincinnati -3.5 (77.3% chance), New Orleans -4.5 (73.6% chance). One major thing to consider with this though is this approach went 0 and 3 last weekend.

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