Comments on: Checkdowns: Are teams more risk-averse than ever in 2012? http://www.footballperspective.com/checkdowns-are-teams-more-risk-averse-than-ever-in-2012/ NFL History and Stats Mon, 19 Nov 2012 17:42:02 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Richie http://www.footballperspective.com/checkdowns-are-teams-more-risk-averse-than-ever-in-2012/#comment-3801 Mon, 19 Nov 2012 17:42:02 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=4319#comment-3801 Is it possible that the distribution of locations of the 4th downs is different? For instance, maybe a larger percentage of 4th and 1’s are happening deep in team’s own territory, where they are less likely to go for it?

]]> By: Steven http://www.footballperspective.com/checkdowns-are-teams-more-risk-averse-than-ever-in-2012/#comment-3731 Sun, 18 Nov 2012 07:43:12 +0000 http://www.footballperspective.com/?p=4319#comment-3731 In reply to Chase Stuart.

I’m tentatively inclined to agree with Ben. If I’m remembering correctly, the 95% margin of error for boolean (i.e., yes-or-no) data is roughly 1/sqrt(n), so if we’re talking about 200 4th downs, the “population mean” could be anywhere from 23% to 37%. That said, the fact that last year’s number was similar (and even lower) makes me a little bit less inclined to dismiss it altogether. We’ll have to keep an eye on this as we get more data.

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