No, I think I’d rather just take the point for the first 3+ quarters.

Again, I generally like to think of myself as an objective person in these regards, but for the 1-point/2-point thing it just seems like you can get in trouble trying to “chase” the score early on.

Yeah, I suppose that’s another way to look at it to show 5<<<<6<<7, although I think we'd both agree that margin of error is too great here to get any definitive answer. If you choose different cutoffs, you get different results. So it comes down to theory. I think being down 7 is pretty serious. A touchdown only ties, and a field goal isn't that helpful. Down 6, a touchdown wins, and a field goal is helpful. Down 5, a touchdown wins, and a FG is really, really helpful. Agree that with 15 mins left, it's a little tricky. One could also argue that you don't want to incentive aggressive play by your opponent.